The final bitter act of the Ukrainian tragedy
My two recent articles on this topic:
June 23, 2026 Total / attrition war culminating – New Game Changers emerging in the Ukrainian war
June 7, 2026 In Ukraine … more and more bitter every day, pan-European war approaching
When looking back, last 8 weeks have shown fierce escalation of all kinds of strikes from both sides but Ukrainian strikes have been mainly in the sphere of “optics” and Russian strikes much more “real and destructive”.
Moreover, Russian armed forces (RuAF) have advanced all along frontlines and reached significant territorial victories: Konstantynovka, Liman, Kupiansk, Kharkiv region etc. The recent headlines of MS analysts are explanatory.
A new element of this tragedy seems to be Russian Mega Strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. More is expected to come soon.
MEGA STRIKE on KYIV — 570 Drones & Missiles🚀💥 THOUSANDS of Drones Still in Reserve📦📊 MS 2026.07.02
KOSTIANTYNIVKA CONFIRMED CAPTURED🏴 Trump-Zelensky-Putin Calls🏛️ FOURTH FUEL WAR PHASE⛽ MS 2026.07.05
The latest massive/mega Russian strike took place in the night 5/6 July causing wide-range destruction in the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
MASSIVE STRIKE ON KYIV: 419 Air Vehicles🚀0 BALLISTIC MISSILES Intercepted❌Military Summary 2026.07.6
The more Ukrainian armed forces (AFU) suffer losses on the battlefield, the more arrogant war propaganda is told in the western mainstream media: “Ukraine is winning … Russia’s terrible troops losses”. This kind of lying is clearly accelerated during last few weeks, even some well-known and respected newspapers and thinktanks are “competing”, who writes the most fraudulent headlines.
Latest loss data
In my latest assessment on the loss data, the article here,
February 17, 2026 Strange events and interdependencies on the international stage, Ukraine
I estimated that:
Estimate of troop losses in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU): since Feb 24, 2022, up to the end of the January 2026, AFU losses have highly likely amounted up to total losses 4.8 million servicemen, from which the irrecoverable losses 1.7-1.9 million (KIA, badly disabled and wounded WIA). Majority of all equipment and other military material, locally produced or delivered by the western allies, have been destroyed by Russian strikes or further sold in the black market (wide-range corruption in the Ukrainian administration and armed forces).
Estimate of troop losses in the Russian Armed Forces (RuAF), since Feb.24, 2022, up to the end of the January 2026, RuAF losses have highly likely amounted up to total losses 495.000 servicemen, from which the irrecoverable losses about 180.000 (KIA, badly disabled and wounded WIA). Estimates of destroyed military equipment of RuAF vary 15-20% from relevant AFU numbers.
There is massive evidence base available now, when assessing troops’ losses in this war
One reliable source is the exchange of fallen soldiers, under the control of International Red Cross, between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. In the period of 2022 – May 15, 2026, the number of received bodies: Russia (3450), Ukraine (24955), ratio 7 : 1.
MOSCOW, February 20, 2026. First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff Sergey Rudskoy said: The Ukrainian army (AFU) lost over 520,000 troops in 2025. Equipment losses in 2025 amounted to roughly 6,700 tanks and combat armored vehicles, as well as over 12,000 artillery weapons and mortars. Since the beginning of the special military operation, the Ukrainian army has lost over 1,5 million troops in total, Rudskoy added.
THE REALITY THE MEDIA IS HIDING Scott Ritter claims, May 30, 2026, that Russian losses would be around 300,000 dead — far from the “500,000” hammered by London to fuel the Western psychological war. But the figure that shatters the official narrative concerns Ukraine: 2.2 million dead and more than 5 million dead + wounded according to the data mentioned by Ritter. “ The Russians aren’t losing 30,000 men per month. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, sometimes lose up to 4,000 men per day. ” While the TV panels talk about “imminent victory,” Ukraine is being drained of its men.
Chay Bowes, April 16, 2026. Zelensky’s Army of the Dead. All invisible to the vile War Mongers of the EU and NATO. You won’t see this on the BBC or CNN, they are too busy trying to convince you this hell must continue at any cost (once its Ukrainian). Satellite data (open source) simply counting the graves of militants in cemeteries in Ukrainian towns and villages is a significant proof of killed soldiers. More Ukrainian graveyards.
The total losses of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for May 2026, according to the reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense, amounted to 35,185 people. The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of 2026, according to the reports, amount to 181,935 people, both wounded and killed. Last year, the total losses of enemy personnel for May amounted to 41,280 people according to the reports, and for the same period in 2024 — 43,080 people. It should be noted that the Ministry of Defense reflects in its reports only approximate losses of the enemy on the line of contact, not including servicemen who died as a result of the use of Russian high-precision long-range weapons and aviation in the depth of Ukrainian territory.
Data Leak Claims Heavy Ukrainian Military Losses. June 25, 2026
Documents obtained through a cyber breach of Ukrainian military and medical databases. The documents are attributed to a breach carried out by the PalachPro and NoName057(16) hacker groups, which claim to have accessed databases belonging to the Ukrainian General Staff, Territorial Defense Command, medical organizations and morgues.
LUGANSK, July 1, 2026. According to military expert Andrey Marochko:
“The enemy’s personnel losses stood at 38,325, including Ukrainian militants and mercenaries. This is 7,180 more than in May.”
The risk of troop losses in the Ukrainian army particularly stems from the low level of personnel training and the rapid deployment of service members to the line of contact. Oftentimes, people are forcefully mobilized and sent to the front within one week. The casualty figure also reflects the effectiveness of our newly established Unmanned Systems Forces. The enemy has been complaining that our drone operators have greatly improved their performance. Marochko added that in June, Russian forces had destroyed 16,300 drones, 12 tanks, nine multiple rocket launchers, 270 field artillery pieces, 155 electronic warfare systems and radars, as well as almost 2,400 enemy combat vehicles of various types.
The NY Times LIes About Russian and Ukrainian Casualties
2 July 2026 by Larry C. Johnson
Larry Johnson writes: “The NY Times published an outrageous article on Wednesday that perpetuates the myth that Ukraine is inflicting massive casualties on Russia. I suppose this is just another part of the propaganda game to deceive the US public about Ukraine’s chances to prevail in the war with Russia.”
Let’s start with the NY Times ridiculous assertions:
Russian Casualties: Estimated at over 1.1 million total (killed and wounded) since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Russia is losing soldiers at a high rate but continues to replenish forces through recruitment and convicts. Russian Killed in Action (KIA): Approximately 350,000 – 400,000.
Ukrainian Casualties: Estimated at around 400,000–500,000 total (killed and wounded). Ukraine’s losses have been severe, particularly in 2025–2026, due to Russian artillery and drone superiority. Ukrainian Killed in Action (KIA): Approximately 180,000 – 220,000.
Larry Johnson says: “This is utter nonsense.” He then analyzes the exchange of soldiers’ bodies and underlines same features as I mentioned above. Since June 2025, the ratio of Ukrainian bodies returned versus Russian bodies returned runs at approximately 35–37 to 1.
Johnson then looks at the disparity in artillery fires. Artillery, through mid-2025, remained the primary weapon for killing and wounding soldiers on both sides. Across the full war, Russia has fired approximately 3 to 4 times more artillery rounds than Ukraine — consistent with RUSI’s assessment that “Russia has fired about four times more rounds than Ukraine, on average, since the start of the invasion.” The ratio varied dramatically within that average: as low as 1:1 briefly in summer 2023 when Ukraine’s Western ammunition arrived in volume, and as high as 10:1 in the worst months of early 2024.
The most significant recent development is what West Point’s Modern War Institute described as the “industrial window” problem. In 2025, Russia produced approximately 7 million rounds per year — roughly 19,000 per day — while consuming an estimated 10,000–15,000 per day. This means Russia in 2025 was rebuilding its stockpiles, not drawing them down, for the first time since 2022. The following tables illustrate the horrific disparity in artillery fires:
Johnson makes a rhetorical comment “Once again, the NY Times wants you to believe that Russia, which is firing almost four times the number of artillery shells than Ukraine, is suffering double the casualties.”
What about drones? Russia is inflicting significantly more damage on Ukraine through its drone campaign than Ukraine is inflicting on Russia through its equivalent program. Russia launched more than 54,000 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine in 2025 alone, at a sustained rate of 135–200 per day.
Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign against Russia has achieved genuine operational results — the refinery strikes are documented, the damage to Russian fuel supply is real, and Putin’s public admission of a domestic fuel crisis confirms this. But the scale and human cost of what Ukraine is absorbing vastly exceeds what Russia is absorbing.
Ukraine’s problems from Russia’s drone campaign are existential pressures on a society that is already absorbing 30,000–34,000 military casualties per month. In short, Russia’s drone force is larger, is producing at greater scale, is hitting more targets successfully, and is inflicting more damage on its adversary. Yet, to hammer home the point again, the NY Times wants you to believe that Russia is suffering double the casualties of Ukraine.
Last, but certainly not least, do not forget about the FAB glide bombs. The term is used loosely to cover Soviet-era free-fall bombs — FAB-500 (500kg), FAB-1000 (1,000kg), FAB-1500 (1,500kg), and FAB-3000 (3,000kg) — fitted with the UMPK (Universal Glide and Correction Module) kit, a roughly $20,000 add-on package of pop-out wings and satellite guidance that converts a dumb iron bomb into a guided glide munition. The UMPK gives the FAB-500 a range of 60–70km, and newer versions extend that to 100–200km.
Since 2023 Russia has dropped approximately 125,000–135,000 glide bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions. The glide bomb campaign has played a significant role in Russia’s military advances. The fall of Avdiivka, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk were each preceded by intensive glide bomb preparation that destroyed fortifications faster than Ukraine could repair or reinforce them.
And yet the NY Times wants us to believe that these bombs barely killed or wounded Ukrainian soldiers manning defensive positions… Right! 125,000 bombs and few, if any, casualties.
Mediazona data is the best available data source when estimating the loss data of RuAF.
Mediazona, working with the BBC’s Russian service and a team of volunteers, has been compiling and maintaining a named list of the Russian military dead. The list is built from publicly available, verifiable sources, such as social media posts by relatives, reports in local media, and statements from regional authorities. Of course, this list is not exhaustive, as not every death is publicly reported.
To build a more complete picture of the war’s true toll, we have developed an estimate based on excess male mortality, using data from the national Probate Registry. This statistical method, created in collaboration with Meduza, helps to account for the limitations of relying solely on publicly reported deaths.
According to data collected through cross-referenced open sources — i.e., obituaries, civil death certificates, geo-located graves, social media announcements, regional media reports, funeral notices, and cemetery records — the Russian KIA, confirmed by name, is 227,700 as of June 19, 2026. This is the running total of individual Russian military deaths that Mediazona, BBC News Russian, and a team of volunteers have confirmed.
Writer’s assessment of current loss data, per the end of June 2026
Estimate of troop losses in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU): since Feb 24, 2022, up to the end of June 2026, AFU total losses (KIA, WIA, MIA, others) have highly likely amounted up to 5 million servicemen, from which the irrecoverable losses up to 2.2 (KIA, badly disabled WIA). Majority of all equipment and other military material, locally produced or delivered by the western allies, have been destroyed by Russian strikes or further sold in the black market (wide-range corruption in the Ukrainian administration and armed forces).
Estimate of troop losses in the Russian Armed Forces (RuAF), since Feb.24, 2022, up to the end of the July 2026, RuAF total losses have highly likely amounted up to 550,000 servicemen, from which the irrecoverable losses about 230,000 (KIA, badly disabled WIA). Estimates of destroyed military equipment of RuAF vary 15-20% from relevant AFU numbers.
Two significant videos on Ukraine war
Ukraine’s Two Wars: Battlefield vs. Narrative | Ex-CIA Analyst
Counter Currents Larry Johnson, July 2, 2026
Former CIA officer Larry Johnson takes a closer look at recent events on the battlefield and the growing battle over narratives, propaganda, and perception.
Stanislav Krapivnik: The Ukraine War Is Escalating Fast
Glenn Diesen Clips July 5, 2026
Stanislav Krapivnik is a former U.S. Army officer from Donbas, who has since returned. Krapivnik discusses the escalation and preparation for war in Europe, and why Russia may decide to strike first.