Scenarios of the Author

The scenarios of the Author can be characterized by the collection of “Black Swans”, deviating significantly from those stated above (Western and Eastern scenarios).

The time span of these scenarios is 2020s and two key concepts utilized here are collapsism and Seneca cliff, which have been explained earlier on this website.

The black swan theory (or theory of black swan events) is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect and is often inappropriately rationalized due to hindsight-bias. When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the metaphor lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought.

Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets.

Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as “black swans”—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 11, 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events.

The scenarios of the Author will be disclosed in the first half of 2021.