Judgement Day coming for Ukraine
It appears that “Judgement Day” is coming for Ukraine very soon, within next six weeks. It will materialize both for internal/domestic reasons and external reasons. Some clear hints can be found in the video of Military Summary, link below
International framework / external reasons
The US military and financial aid is at stake due to domestic political reasons and federal budgeting problems. In any case, it seems clear that the quantity of the aid will decrease significantly in coming weeks and months. USAID announced they have used already 96% of finance budget for Ukraine, now they are out of the budget. Even US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, on November 13, that “The window is closing on US funding for Ukraine”.
The EU is facing manifold challenges and practical difficulties regarding Ukraine aid.
Apparently, the EU is exploring an alternative strategy to secure essential aid for Ukraine, if Hungary opposes the current €50 billion funding. This backup plan involves member states providing national guarantees to raise funds in the market, in case Budapest blocks the review of the EU’s long-term budget, which encompasses the aid package and necessitates unanimous approval. Also, Slovakia is against the planned EU aid to Ukraine as well as the domestic politics in Poland is very unclear at the moment.
Head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell speaks about the impossibility of Kiev’s victory: We have many problems. And now we are faced with two challenges: first of all, in Ukraine, where a quick victory over Russia is not expected. EU countries must be politically willing to continue to support Ukraine and compensate for US aid that is likely to decline. The US now trusts Europe to finance the war in Ukraine.
Without US support, Ukraine will face a disaster – and the EU will not help it, writes Der Spiegel. The war in the Middle East is reducing the level of support for Kiev from Washington. The European Union acts as a “backup” for Ukraine. Der Spiegel responsibly declares that Europe will not be able to replace the support provided to Ukraine by the United States. Stopping American aid would be catastrophic for Ukraine.
EU admits it won’t reach Ukraine ammunition target. They only delivered around 30% of the total rounds promised and will not meet its goal of supplying 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine before next March. Officials previously vowed to ramp up ammunition deliveries through direct transfers and deals with private industry. Some EU members have reportedly been hesitant to offer details about their ammunition stocks, which is suggesting that they have almost none.
EU defense ministers will gather in Brussels on November 14 but some of the bloc’s pledges to support Ukraine with arms and cash are running into trouble. One senior EU official said that 300,000 rounds had been shipped since February 9 under a program to send shells from national stockpiles to Ukraine. That’s nowhere near on track for the million rounds promised earlier this year. It will be very difficult to reach the target by mid-March, as agreed.
Industry executives point to staff shortages and problems sourcing adequate supplies of explosives as some of the bottlenecks facing contractors as they seek to ramp up production. “It’s overall a problem with industrial capacity,” the official added.
While generally the EU is clear it stands behind Ukraine, member countries are split on how to provide further financing. During a meeting of EU leaders at the end of October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was cautious on committing more funding amid the debate over how to spend the bloc’s long-term budget running to 2027 more efficiently.
Fairy tale of the Washington Post
A couple days ago, the Washington Post, spectacularly published the news of “Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack”.
WaPo wants readers to believe that some Ukrainian team carried out a sophisticated attack on Germany’s critical infrastructure in the world’s most heavily monitored waters (by the NATO!). This story smells like… However, the message is clear, the US is throwing Ukraine under the bus.
Even assuming this would be true – that Ukraine did this detonation without the US approval, which is very unlikely – it means Ukraine attacks Germany, a NATO country, which should have triggered article 5 measures against Ukraine. WaPo’s story is totally absurd and those other western media seriously quoting it are true morons.
Colonel Roman Chervinsky, through his lawyer, denied his involvement in sabotage at Nord Stream. By accusing Chernyavsky of undermining the Nord Streams, someone tried to blame General Zaluzhny, who now has disagreements with Zelensky, for this sabotage. Who could it be? Did Zelensky’s Cabinet try to eliminate Zaluzhnyi?
Regarding the internal competition, it seems that Zelensky Cabinet was highly displeased by Zaluzhnyi’s recent interview in the Economist, where he stated that the war has no future without more support and assistance from allies. It appears that Zelensky’s Cabinet desires a prolonged war, as their project is to retain power and work against anyone who opposes them.
I have analyzed this case, detonation of Nord Stream pipelines, in my articles “Enigma of Nord Stream pipelines” on February 12, 2023 and “Gas for Europe, European pipeline game” on October 10, 2022. No doubt, the US Navy Seal special team was behind this sabotage.
Some days ago, the British Financial Time drew attention to this issue, which professor Glenn Diesen is commenting:
One of the main critics of Russia in British journalism, Peter Hitchens, writes about the change in the West’s mood on Ukraine and suggests surrendering.
Why the West wants to replace Zelensky?
It is obvious that the West wants to replace Vladimir Zelensky. Western masters want to remove Zelensky for disobedience and the obvious failure of the counter-offensive. Either he will be forced to call presidential elections next spring, after which he will lose his position or if he resists, he will still be removed from power as a result of a Maidan-style coup, writes Asia Times columnist Stephen Bryan. Why is the West moving to replace Zelensky?
According to him, Washington is dissatisfied with the fact that during the counter-offensive of the AFU, Zelensky did not follow the American plan. Moreover, as a result of the failed operation, the Kiev army lost a large part of Western equipment, including the supposedly “invulnerable” Leopard tanks. Zelensky has another problem that has damaged his relations with his Western masters. It lies in the growing understanding that Ukraine is factually losing the war.
From Washington’s perspective, the best thing that can be done is to reach an agreement with Russia. But Zelensky opposes any negotiations with Moscow and puts forward demands that clearly run counter to the interests of NATO and actually undermine the only way to overcome the conflict.
If the United States reduces or even abandons further support for Kyiv, then Zelensky will be finished. But he is clearly not going to resign voluntarily, so the problem of how to make him leave remains unresolved.
On Wednesday, November 15, CIA Director William Burns is scheduled to visit Kiev. The chief American intelligence officer will try to convince Zelensky that it is necessary to temporarily freeze the conflict and for now refuse to return lost territories by military means. In fact, Burns suggests Zelensky commit political suicide, because a truce and a freeze mean the complete and final collapse of his career.
If the President of Ukraine agrees, according to rumors, there will be a carrot waiting for him: an honorary pension in Europe or the USA. If he refuses, they will use the whip: the Biden administration will turn off the military and financial assistance.
Most likely, Zelensky will refuse and will become a problem for the US and they know how to solve these problems. In principle, Burns’ visit is the last chance for Zelensky to return to the track of American politics. His resistance will mean that the US will begin to pursue a “freeze” line using more stringent methods.
Yet, from great power perspective, this “freezing” is a temporary phenomenon. Any American administration will never give up such a bridgehead on the borders of Russia, which is today’s Ukraine. Its appearance is a great foreign policy success for the US and Washington will fight to preserve it. The US needs a pause in the war in order to solve its internal problems, put out the fire in the Middle East, try to find a solution with China and at the same time re-equip the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the war will continue later in any case, the only question is with or without a break.
Domestic political and military framework / internal reasons
In early November, President Zelensky gave an order to start partial mobilization of Ukrainian women, aged 40-60, up to 90,000 recruits. This is because heavy losses of male Ukrainian soldiers during the war, up to 500,000 thus far. Female soldiers are planned to serve as truck and tank drivers, technicians, snipers etc. but not in direct combat fighters.
Zelensky began to discuss the format of general mobilization, when a million Ukrainians could be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The President is ready to take extreme measures and allow the conscription of students over 20 years of age, old men up to 65 and disabled men, anybody even partially capable to military service.
Zelensky – Zaluzhny dispute
The Washington Post and some other western newspapers have told, in November, on disputes between President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny, Commander-in-chief of the AFU. These disagreements may push the West to end the Ukrainian conflict. Several months of Kiev’s unsuccessful offensive revealed tension among the country’s leadership. It was especially acute in the dispute, when Zaluzhny admitted publicly in the article of the Economist that the conflict had “reached an impasse.” Kiev fears that, if this opinion becomes generally accepted, the West will switch from supporting Ukraine to forcing it to negotiate.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Kyiv will continue the offensive this and next year, despite the fact that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is now experiencing difficulties. “We have a plan, we have specific cities, specific directions, we have a goal, where we will go, in which direction we will attack,” Zelensky said. In the dispute between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, there is a question of power and the President election in 2024.
On November 6, Zaluzhny’s assistant died as a result of a grenade explosion, Ukrainian media write. The incident occurred at the home of 39-year-old Major Gennady Chistyakov in the village of Chaiki, Kyiv region. His son was also injured but the wife and daughter were not injured. “The grenade that killed Zaluzhny’s assistant was in one of the gifts he received for his birthday”, Zaluzhny said. It is clear that this is a warning to Zaluzhny himself. Zelensky will not give up his power so easily. This episode may lead to “the night of the long knives” in Kiev.
The failed offensive led to an open split between the military and political leadership of Ukraine, writes The Daily Telegraph. Kiev is now being urged to consider the possibility of peace negotiations with Moscow, the article says. The publication notes that after 20 months of conflict, tensions between the military and the government became public. As a result, in a recent interview with Time, Zelensky appeared “tired, anxious and irritable” and admitted that fatigue from the conflict was “rolling in like a wave”.
On November 7, Zelensky announced to cancel the presidential elections in 2024 due to the wartime and martial law in Ukraine. The American satirical magazine The Babylon Bee colorfully described what is happening in Ukraine: “Zelensky cancels elections to focus on the fight for democracy.”
Warfare and losses
It is now generally acknowledged that AFU summer counteroffensive has failed and therefore the military position of AFU is getting critical. AFU losses, regarding troops (up to 500,000) and destroyed material & equipment are at gigantic level (e.g. destroyed tanks and armoured vehicles up to 13,400; artillery over 7,000 units; up to 1,200 MLRS; up to 530 aircraft etc.). Russian Forces (RF) have moved to offensive mode on all battlefields along the whole frontline and AFU defense in Avdiivka is near to collapse. RF losses are still at the same level as before, 10-20% of those AFU numbers, depending on the category.
More details can be found in my previous articles like November 1, October 25, 8 and 1.
Because foreign aid to AFU is decreasing and may even further diminish, RF is now strengthening attacks and is pushing very hard on all frontlines so that AFU will run out of ammo and other material and will be forced to stop fighting. Russia’s own military-industrial complex has managed to increase the relevant military production with tens of percentages producing massive amounts of all kind of material and equipment for RF.
Based on intelligence leaks, it appears that Russian Forces have accumulated the stores of various missiles since August, having well over 1,000 missiles for a massive air strike together with drones and all kind of UAVs. This massive air strike may take place soon with the purpose to cripple Ukraine’s energy supply, transportation, air defense and capability to continue warfare, thus ending the Special Military Operation.
Outlook for the rest of the year 2023 and early 2024
A potential Russian victory in the conflict in Ukraine threatens to weaken NATO as an alliance, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Berlin, November 10. According to him, Russia’s victory in Ukraine would not only be a tragedy for Kiev but also carries risk for NATO. It would make NATO vulnerable. He believes that it is in NATO’s best interest to continue supporting Ukraine.
Ex-secretary general, Danish Anders Fogh Rasmussen, proposed few days ago that Ukraine joins NATO without those territories now under Russia’s control. Rasmussen seems not to recognize the situation and the causes leading there.
When Russia takes Odessa, Ukraine will disintegrate speedily.
The Russian Forces (RF) continue striking the infrastructure of the ports of Odessa. Rather soon, RF may try to take the city and it will change the course of the special military operation dramatically. It appears that Odessa has been in the center of attention of the command of the RF for the following reasons: 1) constant terrorist attacks coming from the Odessa region targeting the infrastructure of Crimea and other regions of the Russian Black Sea region; 2) Odessa ports are used as main transshipment point for the supplies of Western weapons and their strategic importance increases against the backdrop of the closure of the Polish border (now by Polish truckers); 3) If a second front is opened in Moldova, Russia will not have an opportunity to defend Transnistria without taking Odessa.
It appears that after the capture of Avdiivka and part of the Kharkiv region, the RF may concentrate on Odessa. The loss of Odessa will cause the rapid disintegration of Ukraine, the de-moralization of AFU troops and it marks the end of the war.
Two new videos that appeared in the last few days, tell the same coherent story “Game is over”. Both videos are very worth to see.
Cyrus Janssen , October 13, 2023
Redacted News, October 14, 2023
Militarily, the final act will be that Russia’s massive air strike campaign, which makes AFU to collapse.
Henry Kissinger a legendary US diplomat and international influencer, was not bullshitting, when he quipped:
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
Looks like President Zelensky is going to learn that truth over the coming weeks. If he survives to see the New Year, it will be a miracle.