January 25, 2026 | Seppo Niemi

Why is Trump hesitant to strike Iran?

I have analyzed the Middle East crises in my two recent articles:

January 12, 2026 What will happen in 2026

December 8, 2025 Turbulent world – full of powder kegs, Part II

July 6, 2025 Israel-Iran 12-Day War in the Middle East, ex-post evaluation

They clarify the base of the present situation and here we focus on the latest events regarding Iran and set the question: Why is Trump hesitant to strike Iran?

Chinese and Russian buildup and deployments in Iran – Iran is preparing

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian defense sector have accelerated efforts to develop the national ballistic missile arsenal, according to intelligence reports. The Western world has attempted to reimpose economic sanctions on and illegalize Iranian ballistic missile development through the United Nations Security Council.

Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal played a central role in deterring further escalation by Western Bloc states and in Israel-Iran 12-Day war. The strengthening of the ballistic missile arsenal, including with the operationalizing of newer missile types including hypersonic and multi-warhead designs, is thus currently considered vital to deterring further Western or Israeli attacks. No doubt, Iran is receiving wide-range military-technical know-how and support from countries like China, North Korea and Russia.

In parallel to possible support for its missile program, more credible reports from multiple sources have indicated that China and Russia are helping Iran to strengthen its air defenses. Western reports tell that Iran is receiving Chinese-made long-range air defence systems, the HQ-9B, and other missile weapons including hypersonic missiles. In some leaked intelligence documents revealed that Iran is receiving both S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter aircraft as well as modernized MiG-29s. Procurements of fighters and air defence systems are expected to complement the effects of advances in the Iranian ballistic missile program to more effectively deter possible future Western or Israeli attacks. Military transport aircraft from China and Russia to Iran have been reported in massive amounts in recent weeks.

Work by Israel and the United States to justify a new war on Iran is well underway, but the Islamic Republic seems determined to maintain its red lines with regards to any talks on its nuclear and missile programs. Without directly referring to the report, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on November 5 that the defense and missile capabilities of the Islamic Republic have improved since the 12-day war with Israel in June, stressing that any future talks won’t include these issues. Rumors that surfaced online at around the same time suggest that Iran is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, which is enough to reach mainland US.

American military buildup and deployments around Iran – two waves

A new deployment of forces started in early January 2026, when Israeli’s war cabinet approved a new military operation against Iran, “Operation Iron Strike”.

Jan 6, Many Iranian and Arab sources report that the United States is preparing to launch large-scale air strikes against Iran, in which Israel would also take part. At the same time, Iran fears that such strikes could lead to the collapse of its air defense system and, for this reason, is considering the need for preemptive strikes against US bases deployed across the Middle East and against Israel.

President Trump has been briefed on a wide range of covert and military tools for use in Iran, two Department of Defense officials told the media. Long-range missile strikes remain an option for potential US intervention, but Pentagon officials have also presented cyber operations and psychological campaign responses. Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries with commercial ties to Iran on Monday. Iran’s foreign minister has said Tehran is open to talks with Washington but remains “prepared for war”.

In mid-January, a senior US official has confirmed that American forces in the Middle East are now in “advanced stages” of readiness. Four signs the US is preparing for a military attack on Iran:

The US has urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately and avoid travel under any circumstances.
Reports indicate US special operations units — including Delta Force — are being repositioned closer to the Iraq–Iran border. This area is critical: it allows covert entry, rapid strikes, and coordination with regional assets.
Massive airlift into the Persian Gulf Since early December, dozens of US military cargo aircraft, primarily C-17s and C-5s, have surged into Persian Gulf bases, led by Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, CENTCOM’s forward air-war headquarters. OSINT and flight-tracking data show sustained heavy-lift traffic from the US and Europe into Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Hardening political language senior US officials have openly referenced “very strong options” if Tehran escalates internally or regionally. This marks a shift from deterrence to conditional justification for action.
The United States is preparing to attack Iran. It seems that the attacks of summer 2026 between the US and Iran were coordinated between the parties. If this attack is not coordinated, it will trigger violent retaliations against Israel and US bases, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which extends for hundreds of kilometers.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers got pulled from the South China Sea. At typical cruising speed, that’s roughly a week to reach the Arabian Sea. The US waits for the Lincoln group, suggesting a larger sustained campaign with full carrier air power. That pushes any major action to late January. Reposition of an entire carrier group from the Pacific for a symbolic one-night strike does not make any sense. The Lincoln’s deployment signals Washington is preparing for something prolonged, not just a message.

Trump wants a guaranteed victory before he gives the order to launch. He has privately told his top advisors that he would want any action against Iran to deliver a “swift and decisive blow” to the regime. However, a US official confirmed that Trump’s advisors have been unable to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike. There is concern that the US may not have enough assets currently present in the region to defend against what administration officials expect would be an “aggressive” Iranian response.

Prof. John Mearsheimer said that Iran’s best course of action right now is to warn the US and all Gulf nations that any attack on Iran will lead to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz… Such a blockade would prevent 45% of the oil produced each day by both OPEC and non-OPEC nations from reaching consumers. Shuttering the Strait would cause a dramatic spike in the price of oil, which would be a windfall for all non-OPEC countries … especially Russia, who is the largest producer of oil next to Saudi Arabia.

Riots in Iran, starting from early January

On December 29, 2025, traders launched protests in Tehran due to the sharp fall in the Iranian rial exchange rate. On December 30, students joined the unrest. The riots spread to most major cities. The protests peaked on the evening of January 8, when at least 13 civilians, including a child, were killed because of the rioters’ actions. Authorities reported the deaths of 38 law enforcement officers. The Iranian authorities called the rioters terrorists and blamed Israel and the US for orchestrating the unrest.

Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that peaceful protests lasted three days, during which the government held direct talks with economic activists. However, armed terrorist groups soon infiltrated the demonstrations, hijacking their original peaceful nature.

Evidence shows attacks on security forces were staged to inflate casualties, a demand from Trump, and most fatalities, including security personnel, were shot from behind. Armed attackers also killed the injured in ambulances, burned 53 mosques, and sabotaged public infrastructure. Araghchi presented diplomats with footage of attackers shooting and destroying government buildings, emphasizing that this was not a protest but a terrorist war on Iran.

Every two years or so the CIA and Mossad are instigating regime change riots in Iran. These attempts inevitably fail as this latest one. Currently a few thousand young men are during nighttime burning cars, mosques, shops and police offices in various cities of Iran. Armed agents are firing at and killing policemen. All these cells are coordinated via Internet connections.

It usually takes a week or two until Iranian government forces find the connections, trace down the ring leaders and shut them down. That process may take a little longer this time because some of the terror cells have been equipped with Starlink terminals.

The “Color revolution” in Iran is failing, Israeli officials are advising Trump to hold off on strikes against Iran. There are no plan B. Israeli and Arab officials have recently advised the Trump administration to hold off on military strikes against Iran. According to informed sources, the officials do not believe the Iranian regime is yet weak enough for US military strikes to deliver a “decisive blow” and furthermore they fear the consequences of such an attack.

Scott Ritter: CIA & Mossad’s Failed Regime Change Operation in Iran

The New World January 19, 2026

Former UN weapons inspector and military analyst Scott Ritter delivers a detailed analysis of alleged foreign intelligence operations in Iran, examining claims that the CIA and Mossad infiltrated legitimate economic protests to provoke a violent revolution and justify a U.S.–Israeli military strike.

Former CIA Officer Larry Johnson says the chaos in Iran was not an organic uprising, but a calculated CIA–Mossad intelligence operation, using a deliberately engineered currency crash to spark protests, which Iran ultimately crushed.

Internet down, Starlink down

Perhaps, the most important single reason why the attempted colour revolution failed was the take-down of Internet and Starlink by Tehran authorities. The terror groups utilized these technologies in their mutual communication.

It is now clear what Russia has been delivering to Iran with its military transporters in the last few weeks. Starlink jamming systems. Russian intelligence has broken through the Mossad and CIA plan to initiate massive and violent protests in Iran, stunning the Iranian government, which would be followed by a massive US-Israeli military intervention and bombing.

The Iranian government completely blocked the internet and communication and with the help of these systems managed to block Starlink, whose receivers, according to Sky News, had been smuggled inside Iran for years. In this way, Mossad lost communication with the base in Israel and the organization began to fall apart. Mossad agents began to be hunted down one by one because with the internet completely turned off, Starlink receivers light up like a Christmas tree.

Starlink is the most powerful weapon in the hands of the US and Israel. Through this internet, communication can be easily organized and drones can be controlled anywhere in the world from a basement in Washington. All Ukrainian communication takes place via Starlink.

Russia’s proven battle against StarLink in Ukraine. Leaked documents from the Pentagon had recently named the mysterious system – that seemed to have been forgotten since 2020 after it was first identified -to have jammed SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet constellation. In a 2023 article published by Eurasian Times, report gives details regarding Russia’s advanced EW technologies used in their Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

Russia’s TOBOL EW System “Cuts Off” Starlink From It’s Ground Terminals; How Did Moscow Delink The Starlink

The Global Network by the Eurasian Times, April 24, 2023

Russia’s Tobol electronic warfare (EW) system targeted the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal to break the “synchronization” of the Starlink satellite internet service with its ground terminals.

How Iran Is Jamming Starlink During Nationwide Protests |Explained. Defence Intelligence, January 13, 2926

Iranian authorities have seized a large shipment of Starlink terminals and massive amounts of various weapons from detained terrorists.

Two videos regarding Starlink jamming.

How Iran Shut Down Over 10000 Starlink NET : A Massive Operation Revealed || IRAN Changed Everything

SHKamran January 12, 2026

CHECK and MATE: RUSSIA deployed a Never-Before-Seen EW System in TEHRAN and Paralyzed IRAN’s ENEMIES

BORZZIKMAN January 17, 2026

Trump’s “last-minute decision of not-to-strike”, why?

Planned US Strike on Iran reportedly halted at the last minute, January 15.

A planned US military strike on Iran was reportedly called off just minutes before execution after Donald Trump personally intervened, according to Walla military analyst Amir Bohbot. Iranian airspace has since reopened, while assets scrambled from Al Udeid Air Base were ordered to return and remain on standby. The mission was halted at the final stage. Trump has told advisers he will only authorize military action that delivers a clear, decisive outcome. Officials reportedly warned that a strike could not guarantee regime collapse and that the US may lack sufficient regional assets to counter a large-scale Iranian retaliation.

There are plenty of explanations for this call off. Here below the combined list of over ten think tanks and military analysts. The US prepared and then halted a military strike on Iran due to US national interest, risk management and strategic restraint rather than weakness.

1. Avoiding a wider war that would hurt US Interests.

A direct strike on Iran could rapidly escalate into a regional conflict. Iran is fully prepared with a strong & highly advanced defense stronger than ever before and is ready for harsh and powerful retaliation. Iran could retaliate through missile attacks, proxy forces and disruption of global energy routes. Such an escalation would place US troops, allies and global markets at serious risk. From a US perspective, a controlled environment is preferable to an open-ended war.

2. No clear strategic gain from immediate military action.

Senior US officials reportedly doubted whether a strike would achieve a decisive outcome. Without a clear path to degrading Iran’s long-term capabilities or changing its behavior, a limited attack risked becoming symbolic rather than strategically effective. US military doctrine prioritizes actions that deliver measurable and lasting advantages.

3. Protection of US forces and bases in the region.

Iran and its aligned groups have demonstrated the capability to strike US bases across the Middle East. Intelligence assessments likely warned that even a limited US strike would trigger retaliation against American personnel. Preventing American casualties remains a top political and military priority in Washington.

4. Pressure from US partners and allies.

Key US partners in the Middle East reportedly urged caution. Gulf states and European allies warned that a strike could destabilize the region, threaten shipping lanes and damage energy security. The United States weighed these concerns heavily, recognizing that alliance stability is a core pillar of American global power. Many regional allies (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar) rejected escalation.

5. Strategic signaling without pulling the trigger

By preparing for a strike and then halting it, Washington still sent a clear deterrent message. The US demonstrated readiness, capability, and resolve while retaining escalation control. This approach aligns with US strategy of applying pressure without rushing into irreversible military action. The halt was not a retreat. The United States kept military options on the table while choosing a timing and method that best serves long term US security interests.

6. Russia (also Beijing) warned the US of disastrous consequences if Iran is attacked.

Moscow issued a series of sharp warnings to Washington, characterizing any potential US military strike on Iran as “categorically unacceptable”, which would lead to “disastrous consequences” for the Middle East and global international security.

7. Trump was preparing the military but it was too late, the coup attempt failed.

Iran turned off the Internet, including Starlink, cracked down hard on the protestors, organized counter protests with thousands of people marching and condemning the riots and protests. Leading protestors were already dispersed, many killed and many ran over the border. The strike would have NOT achieved any effect anymore, because the coup attempt failed.

8. The US is preparing a large-scale deployment of various military assets to the Middle East.

Therefore, massive amounts of different military assets are needed in the coming days and weeks, including the placement of additional air defense systems. This move is laying the groundwork for potential military options against Iran, from purely defensive in nature to offensive.

9. Trump chickened out.

US President Donald Trump was ready and willing to bomb Iran but Iran was also ready to retaliate. The US military, in contrast, was not ready to defend against the inevitable retaliation that would have come out of Iran. There are only three destroyers with air-defenses in the area that could offer protection against a ballistic missile onslaught and a few minutes after the first strikes their arsenals would have been empty. This time is different.

The military was unable to give any good options for strikes. It had to ask Trump to stand down.

The Gulf countries were anxious and did not want to be part of a campaign. Bombing Iran goes against the interests of the Arab Gulf States. Neutralizing the current Iranian regime, can potentially translate into the unparalleled hegemony of Israel, which won’t serve the Gulf States. Even Israel suggested to wait until the regime breaks down. That is not going to happen. Most of the country and the security forces support the country’s political structure. Paid foreign terrorists who shoot at random people as well as security forces, can break that connection. In consequence, at least for now, Trump chickened out.

10. Iran is today a big regional military player.

Israel seems not to be prepared enough for it. The Strait of Hormuz would be closed, causing immense losses to regional oil-producing countries, heavy increases in oil prices from which particularly Russia would benefit. American military assets in the region would not be sufficient.

A country of 90 million inhabitants that is as well-armed as Iran is not one that external agents can decide overnight to attack and change its government. For more than 50 years, the CIA and Mossad have been trying to overthrow the Iranian government without success. Now the regime is in a fragile moment but talking about Iran, nothing is so clear. The US options are mainly limited to selective strikes, far from anything that could implode the regime.

11. Washington’s calculated restraints.

A closer look reveals a complex interplay of strategic, operational, and geopolitical factors that make a strike both risky and potentially counterproductive. Rather than rushing into overt military escalation, US policy appears to favor careful, indirect pressure aimed at gradually weakening Iran from within before considering a decisive strike. There is no clear strategic benefit for the United States to bomb Iran at this stage. The coup failed and airpower alone offers little leverage over a large, cohesive state like Iran. At present, a direct attack on Iran would be costly and unlikely to deliver decisive results.

Beyond the battlefield, broader geopolitical constraints further narrow Washington’s room for maneuver. China, in particular, views Iran as a strategic hinge, central to energy security, regional stability and the land-sea corridors linking the Middle East to Central Asia and Europe. For Beijing, the core concern is not loyalty to Tehran but the systemic risk posed by an Iran collapse. Turkey represents another significant constraint. Ankara has consistently warned that a war on Iran would destabilize the regional balance and generate direct spillover risks for Turkish security. Turkish officials have raised concerns about refugee flows, militant movement, economic disruption, and cascading instability across Anatolia, the Caucasus, and northern Iraq.

Commentator from the Israeli TV channel Channel 14, Tamir Morag, commenting on the reasons for the delay in the American strike, stated: “It seems that Trump has already made a decision, and even if the strike is postponed for a few days, it will still take place. One of the reasons for the delay is serious disagreements between the US and its allies: Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have notified Washington that they will not allow US Air Force planes to take off from bases on their territory.”

US Sends Emergency Missile Defenses to Israel to Block Potential Iran Attack

The Exposed States January 19, 2026

Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US have reached a critical point, with military deployments, emergency alerts, and high-level political statements signaling that the region may be on the brink of a major conflict. We analyze why Israel is facing a shortage of interceptor missiles, how Iran’s missile capabilities challenge existing defense systems, and why Washington is rushing advanced air defense support to its closest ally. This in-depth analysis explores the strategic calculations behind short wars versus prolonged conflicts, the risks of missile saturation, and the broader global consequences if the situation spirals out of control.

Iran Biggest Shipment of Weapons Ever!: China Sends

Prof. James Ker-Lindsay January 24, 2026

China delivers Iran’s largest weapons shipment in history, fundamentally altering Middle Eastern military balance and global power dynamics. This massive arms transfer includes cutting-edge missiles, advanced drone systems, sophisticated defense technology, and military hardware on an unprecedented scale. The historic shipment empowers Iranian military capabilities beyond previous levels, threatening regional adversaries and US interests. Experts warn of escalating arms race, potential warfare, and destabilized oil markets. This monumental weapons deal marks a pivotal moment in 21st-century geopolitics.

What may be coming?

Unlike the June 2025 war, Iran is now at peak readiness and the phrase “hands on the trigger and missiles locked on targets” is not a PR bluff. This time, there won’t be any meetings to issue orders to Iranian commanders. The orders have already been given, and across Iran’s cities they’re just waiting for the game to start. The mindset of Iran’s commanders regarding the model and nature of war has fundamentally changed compared to before the June 2025 war.