Military deterrence works – the US postponing the decision to invade Venezuela?
In this article I continue to comment the possible US invasion in Venezuela. My previous article is available in this link: November 2, 2025 Great power competition in Venezuela
Airstrikes, kidnapping Maduro, or seizing oil fields?
Max Blumenthal: Venezuela Invasion – A Predictable Disaster
Glenn Diesen November 5, 2025
Max Blumenthal discusses why the invasion of Venezuela will predictably result in catastrophe. Blumenthal is the editor-in-chief of The Grayzone, Max Blumenthal is an award-winning journalist and the author of several books, including best-selling Republican Gomorrah, Goliath, The Fifty One Day War, and The Management of Savagery. He has produced print articles for an array of publications, many video reports, and several documentaries, including Killing Gaza.
Military buildups and deployments – Friends in times of need
American Buildup
The United States’ recent naval deployment near the coast of Venezuela on a counter-drug cartel mission have brought the two countries closer than ever to an all-out military confrontation.
In this year, the administration of US President Donald Trump has been slowly escalating against Venezuela, using the problem of drug trafficking as a pretext. In February, it designated Venezuelan criminal group Tren de Aragua and a number of Mexican drug cartels as global terrorist organizations. The US announced earlier this month that it had doubled the reward for the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to $50 million.
The US dispatched in recent weeks firstly a 4500 troops strong naval group, including an amphibious group, multiple guided missile destroyers, a nuclear attack submarine and several naval patrol aircraft, to Latin America and the Caribbean on a counter-cartel mission.
The US Navy’s sole next generation supercarrier USS Gerald Ford has been ordered to South American waters alongside much of its strike group, marking a major milestone in the already very significant military buildup targeting Venezuela. This follows flights by B-1B and B-52H strategic bombers off the country’s coast, and other significant shows of force including patrols by forward deployed F-35 stealth fighters.
Deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford supercarrier can carry up to 90 aircraft and its deployment marks a massive increase in US firepower in the region. It is coming from the Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico by mid-November. The naval force includes more than 10,000 sailors and Marines on three ships: The Wasp class amphibious assault ship, the USS Iwo Jima, and San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships the USS San Antonio and USS Fort Lauderdale.” It also includes, three Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and the USS Sampson, in addition to a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser, USS Lake Erie, and the Los Angeles-class fast-attack nuclear submarine USS Newport News.
Apart from that the US is expanding civilian airport infrastructure in Puerto Rico and on the island of Saint Croix, the US Virgin Islands, the United States is upgrading a long-abandoned base in Puerto Rico, obviously preparing for potential military operations in Venezuela.
Construction works at the former Roosevelt Roads naval base in Puerto Rico, which was closed more than 20 years ago, began on September 17, when operations to clear and repave taxiways leading to the runway began. Apart from that, the United States is expanding civilian airport infrastructure in Puerto Rico and on the island of Saint Croix, the US Virgin Islands. These territories are located some 500 miles (around 800 kilometers) off Venezuela.
Venezuelan Buildup
There have been quite much various speculations, how largely and effectively the Venezuelan military will rise to resist the American invasion. Now, it seems that the national will and unity mean the formation of real resistance.
In response to the deployment of US military deployment, Maduro decided, on August 18, to mobilize its militias, together 4.5 million militia members, in response to “outlandish threats” by the United States.
Venezuela is the most armed country in Latin America, with three S-300VM batteries, at least 20 Buk-M2 and Tor-M1 batteries, as well as patrol boats and fast boats equipped with anti-ship missiles and around 20 Su-30MK2 fighters and 18 F-16. The Bolivarian Militia of Venezuela, founded by Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez, is reported to contain about five million people. Meanwhile, the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela, which is heavily armed, has over 100,000 active-duty troops.
Venezuela is mobilizing thousands of security forces to its Colombian border, just as the Trump administration positions three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with thousands of troops in international waters off the South American country’s coast.
Although Venezuela has placed its forces on alert and has conducted frequent patrols using its small fleet of Su-30MK2 fighters as shows of force, the small size of the country’s arsenal has raised questions regarding its ability to seriously challenge the US Armed Forces’ dominance of the air and seas. A number of sources have reported that Caracas has instead turned to Russia and other major non-Western arms suppliers (China, Iran) to rapidly dispatch new equipment as the possibility of war looms.
According to military experts, there are some Russian weapons Venezuela needs but certain factors limit Russia’s ability to rapidly supply armaments. Nevertheless, a number of systems could potentially be supplied and operationalized relatively rapidly.
Bastion Coastal Defence System. This system was developed to asymmetrically counter the larger navies of Russia’s Western Bloc adversaries, and was designed to be able to threaten large warships while remaining mobile and survivable. The systems have low operational costs and are relatively straightforward to utilize. The system’s mobile launch vehicles can set up for firing within minutes and launched P-800 anti-ship cruise missiles at Mach 2.5 speeds with ranges of 800 kilometres. The Venezuelan Armed Forces are currently heavily reliant on Kh-31A anti-ship missiles launched by the Air Force’s Su-30MK2 fighters to threaten American warships at sea.
Kh-32 Cruise Missile. While the Su-30MK2 fleet has been relied on heavily for anti-shipping duties, their Kh-31A missiles are limited to ranges of little over 100 km, which makes it potentially highly challenging to fly close enough to launch against US Navy warships. The integration of the Kh-32 would allow Su-30MK2 fighters to launch strikes from well within Venezuelan airspace and could be a game changer for US Navy operations in the region.
The Russian Aerospace Forces have deployed Il-76 transports to airlift new short and medium range air defence systems to Venezuela, according to a statement by First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defence Committee Alexei Zhuravlev.
The systems delivered included both the medium range BuK-M2, which the Venezuelan Air Force already widely operations and the short ranged Pantsir. “Russia is actually one of Venezuela’s key military-technical partners; we supply the country with virtually the entire range of weapons, from small arms to aircraft, Russian Su-30MK2 fighters are the backbone of the Venezuelan Air Force, making it one of the most powerful air powers in the region. The delivery of several S-300VM battalions has significantly strengthened the country’s ability to protect important installations from air attacks.”
Reportedly, a large number of Russian Wagner troops from Africa has been recently deployed to Venezuela and Venezuelan Su-30MK2 aircraft patrolling coastline are now equipped with Kh-31A anti-ship missiles.
Even more has been discussed among Maduro’s friends regarding extra weapons deliveries to Venezuela, now when the US forces are threatening. The statements by North Korean Kim Jong-un and Russian Alexei Zhuravlev are symptomatic.
These recent videos open this case from many viewpoints and share more light on it.
U.S vs Venezuela War BIG BREAKING: Russia & China Step In To Back Maduro’s Army |U.S Move Backfires?
Oneindia News November 1, 2025
Tensions explode in the region as Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro delivers a fierce message to former U.S. President Donald Trump following the deployment of U.S. warships near Venezuelan waters. As Washington increases pressure, Caracas turns to Russia, China, and Iran for defense support, triggering fears of a wider geopolitical confrontation. New footage, military sources, and diplomatic statements reveal how the crisis is now spiraling into a major standoff that could reshape global alliances.
Xi Jinping, Putin Rush To Maduro’s Rescue? Trump Shocked By Russia, China’s Big Move In Venezuela?
MIRROR NOW, November 2, 2025
Russia and China are deepening their foothold in Latin America, backing Maduro as U.S. tensions rise. Military signals from Moscow and Beijing across Caracas and Havana challenge Washington’s dominance. As Trump reasserts power, the East pushes back — fueling fears of a new Cold War in America’s strategic backyard.
Venezuela’s Showdown, Trump’s Next Move — Will Russia Protect Maduro? | Prof. Richard D. Wolff
Alpha November 3, 2025
Venezuela stands at a critical crossroads as Professor Richard Wolff analyzes the explosive geopolitical crisis threatening to reshape Latin America. With Maduro’s regime under siege and Trump preparing bold strategies, the question looms: Will Russia intervene to protect its key ally? Sachs dissects the complex web of international alliances, oil politics, and military positioning that could trigger a major confrontation. This urgent analysis reveals how Venezuela’s fate impacts global energy markets, regional stability, and superpower relations. Discover the hidden agendas behind sanctions, the role of Chinese investment, and why this South American nation has become ground zero for a new Cold War showdown.
Trump Faces New Challenge as Russia Backs Maduro’s Venezuela | Firstpost America | N18G
Firstpost November 4, 2025
Tensions in the Caribbean are reaching new heights as Russia deepens its military support for Venezuela while the US builds up forces nearby. Newly verified footage shows Russian-made Buk-M2E missile systems deployed near Caracas, capable of targeting advanced US jets and Tomahawk missiles. The move follows years of Moscow-Caracas cooperation across defence, energy and intelligence. Meanwhile, President Nicolas Maduro praised the UN for condemning US airstrikes that killed dozens, accusing Washington of using drug enforcement as a cover for regime change. President Donald Trump insists war is unlikely but says Maduro’s “days are numbered.” With missiles primed and warships circling, the region teeters on the brink.
More uptodate videos to learn background info.
CARIBBEAN SHOWDOWN: Russia–U.S. Clash Over Venezuela Begins | Maduro Vs Trump
Times Now World November 4, 2025
The Caribbean has emerged as a new flashpoint in global geopolitics as tensions escalate between Washington and Moscow. The U.S. has deployed 16,000 troops, eight warships, a nuclear submarine, and B-52 bombers near Venezuela, calling it an anti-narcotics operation. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro says his government is in constant daily communication with Moscow and relies on long-standing military cooperation with Russia and China. Following the ratification of the Putin–Maduro Strategic Partnership Agreement, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that Moscow “is ready for anything” to defend Venezuela’s sovereignty. Analysts say the move marks Russia’s boldest challenge to U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere since the Cold War.
Putin could restart Cuban missile CRISIS as Russia gives weapons to Venezuela
The Sun November 5, 2025
A recent statement by a Russian lawmaker stated that Americans ‘may be in for surprises’ at the weapons Putin is sending Venezuela over fears of invasion. Alexei Zhuravlyov, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Defense Committee, also said that he would not rule out Oreshnik missiles being stationed in Maduro’s nation – raising concerns about a new Cuban Missile crisis.
Trump ‘SWEATS’ As Iran’s Drones Enter War In Backyard | US Bases In Maduro’s ‘Line Of Fire’ Mapped
Times Of India November 6, 2025
A bombshell report has revealed how Venezuela’s push for long-range drones from Iran could suddenly place multiple U.S. military bases in the Caribbean within strike range. The reported map shows how American facilities in Puerto Rico, St. Croix and Cuba’s Guantánamo Bay already lie just a few hundred miles from potential threats. The Washington Post reported last month that Venezuelan officials had reportedly sought drones with a range of 600–1000 miles, along with electronic warfare and passive-detection gear from Iran, as Washington’s military buildup in the region intensifies.
The Russian Navy Arrives — Defending Venezuela from U.S. Pressure | Prof. John Mearsheimer
Mearsheimer Responds November 7, 2025
The Russian Navy Arrives — Defending Venezuela from U.S. Pressure | Prof. John Mearsheimer Renowned economist Professor John Mearsheimer analyzes Russia’s naval deployment to Venezuela amid escalating U.S. sanctions and geopolitical pressure. This insightful discussion explores how Venezuela seeks international allies to counter American influence in Latin America. Sachs examines the historical context of U.S.-Venezuela relations, the strategic importance of Russian military support, and the broader implications for global power dynamics. Understanding this complex geopolitical chess game is crucial as tensions rise between Washington and Caracas. Learn about economic warfare, sovereignty issues, and how smaller nations navigate superpower conflicts. This analysis provides essential context for anyone following international relations, military strategy, and the shifting balance of global power in today’s multipolar world.
Assessment of reasons, why the US refrains from invading Venezuela
The goal of the United States’ military operation in the Caribbean Basin is not a fight against drug trafficking but rather the attempt by President Donald Trump to cause internal destabilization and collapse the Venezuelan government to gain control of the country’s natural resources. However, this is unlikely to be successful, raising the question of whether Trump will dare to invade Venezuela since this is the only realistic prospect for regime change.
The Trump administration is pressuring the Venezuelan government by funding opposition political forces and bribing certain high-ranking officials in the military and police to win over potential coup plotters, which is not in accordance with international law or even US regulations. The Trump administration has only escalated tensions by threatening to militarily intervene in the country. The latest case is the pathetic Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, a veteran CIA Asset.
Now that Trump is failing to make any significant progress or peace steps in Ukraine, he now wants to take action against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to distract from his failure, as he believes it will be an easy success. But despite all the threats and all the weapons, he has brought to the region, Trump will, highly likely, not be able to carry out such an intervention.
President Trump has clearly begun to ponder different ways to solve Venezuelan crisis. One key issue to him is, whether to be President of Peace or President of War.
Russia strongly condemns US military provocations in the Caribbean under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on November 1. Zakharova believes that Washington should start the war on drugs in the United States itself, not in Venezuela.
According to the Washington Post, Venezuela reached out to Russia, China, and Iran in October with a request for military assistance due to the threats by Washington to carry out strikes. Venezuela requested deliveries of missiles, radars, and modernized aircraft due to the concentration of US forces in the Caribbean region and asked Moscow to help strengthen air defenses, including overhauling previously purchased Russian fighters.
At the same time, NBC reported that the Pentagon is developing options for strikes against drug cartels inside Venezuela, which, according to their sources, could begin in the coming weeks, following several US military operations in September and October against boats carrying alleged drug smugglers off the coast of Venezuela.
However, in recent days, the White House itself has denied allegations in the US press that the president is even considering military intervention in Venezuela, which indicates that Trump could be backtracking for the second time since his initial push. It cannot be discounted, though, that the US might conduct precision strikes, just as it did against Iran on June 22.
Pentagon Rethinks Venezuela Strike? USS Ford Freezes As Trump Blinks Before Putin’s Oreshnik Warning
Hindustan Times November 7, 2025
There seems to be two types of factors, which refrain the US from a large-scale invasion.
- Military and political risks
- determined and fast military aid and deployment by Russia, China and Iran seem to have strong restraining effect on the US willingness to invade. Military deterrence works.
- political risks are also huge and not only in the context of Trump’s idea “President of Peace or President of War”
- the entire Global South around the world is watching this drama; no doubt, political tectonics are moving
- World order and polarity changing
- US hegemonic position and credibility declining sharply
- Ukraine’s defeat and weakening position of the EU and NATO, their gradual disintegration
- Tariff and economic competition and war with China
- US massive and increasing debt
- Overall declining positions of western powers
- heavily strengthening power position of East Camp and declining position of West Camp
- strengthening BRICS+ and awakening of Global South
Alastair Crooke: Western Politics Broken – China & Russia Triumph
Glenn Diesen November 7, 2025
Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat and the Founder of “Conflicts Forum” based in Beirut. He was formerly an advisor on Middle East issues to Javier Solana, the EU Foreign Policy Chief. Crooke argues that Western politics are broken and there are no indications that the underlying issues are being addressed. Meanwhile, China and Russia are now bowing to the West’s coercion as China is winning the economic war and Russia is defeating NATO in Ukraine.
Richard Wolff: Economic Decline Fuels U.S. Political Meltdown
Glenn Diesen November 7, 2025
Professor Richard Wolff discusses how the economic decline in the US is fuelling a political meltdown.