Great power competition in Venezuela

I have shortly analyzed this topic in my previous article

October 17, 2025  Autumn Potpourri 2025

Because this event / process seems to escalate, step by step, encompassing more and more key players, it is necessary to study the case in details. There are two key background factors (elements), which are crucial in this case: Monroe Doctrine of the US and the oil reserves of Venezuela.

US Military Preparing to INVADE Venezuela?

HistoryLegends, October 19, 2025

Position of the US

The Monroe Doctrine was articulated in President James Monroe’s seventh annual message to Congress on December 2, 1823. The European powers, according to Monroe, were obligated to respect the Western Hemisphere as the United States’ sphere of interest.

The Monroe Doctrine was a US foreign policy statement that warned European powers not to interfere in the Western Hemisphere, declaring it off-limits for further colonization. It established that the Americas and Europe were to be in separate spheres of influence and that any attempt by European nations to colonize or control any part of the Western Hemisphere would be seen as a direct threat to the US. In return, the US pledged not to interfere in European affairs or with existing European colonies in the Americas. 

Understandably, the United States has always taken a particular interest in its closest neighbors – the nations of the Western Hemisphere. Equally understandably, expressions of this concern have not always been favorably regarded by other American nations. The Monroe Doctrine is the best-known US policy toward the Western Hemisphere. The doctrine was conceived to meet major concerns of the moment but it soon became a watchword of US policy in the region. The Monroe Doctrine was invoked in 1865 when the US government exerted diplomatic and military pressure in support of the Mexican President Benito Juárez.

Almost 40 years later, in 1904, European creditors of a number of Latin American countries threatened armed intervention to collect debts. President Theodore Roosevelt promptly proclaimed the right of the United States to exercise an “international police power” to curb such “chronic wrongdoing,” in his so-called Roosevelt Corollary (or extension) to the Monroe Doctrine. 

While the Monroe Doctrine’s message was designed to keep European powers out of the Western Hemisphere, president Roosevelt would strengthen its meaning to justify sending the United States into other countries of the Western Hemisphere.

In 1962, the Monroe Doctrine was challenged, when the Soviet Union began to build missile-launching sites in Cuba. With the support of the Organization of American States, President John F. Kennedy threw a naval and air quarantine around the island. After several tense days, the Soviet Union agreed to withdraw the missiles and dismantle the sites.

Subsequently, the United States dismantled several of its obsolete air and missile bases in Turkey. Since then, the US has jealously guarded the Western Hemisphere from outside influences. President Trump has repeatedly reaffirmed his commitment to this doctrine.

Buildup of military and naval strike group – both sides prepare for war

In this year, the administration of US President Donald Trump has been slowly escalating against Venezuela, using the problem of drug trafficking as a pretext. In February, it designated Venezuelan criminal group Tren de Aragua and a number of Mexican drug cartels as global terrorist organizations.

Furthermore, the US announced earlier this month that it had doubled the reward for the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to $50 million. Maduro was accused by the Trump administration of being “the world’s biggest drug trafficker” and of working with cartels to smuggle fentanyl-laced cocaine.

The US dispatched in recent days a 4500 troops strong naval group, including an amphibious group, multiple guided missile destroyers, a nuclear attack submarine and several naval patrol aircraft, to Latin America and the Caribbean on a counter-cartel mission.

In response to the deployment of US military deployment, Maduro decided, on August 18, to mobilize its militias, together 4.5 million militia members, in response to “outlandish threats” by the United States. Venezuela is the most armed country in Latin America, with three S-300VM batteries, at least 20 Buk-M2 and Tor-M1 batteries, as well as patrol boats and fast boats equipped with anti-ship missiles and around 20 Su-30MK2 fighters and 18 F-16. The Bolivarian Militia of Venezuela, founded by Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez, is reported to contain about five million people. Meanwhile, the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela, which is heavily armed, has over 100,000 active-duty troops.

Venezuela is mobilizing thousands of security forces to its Colombian border, just as the Trump administration positions three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with thousands of troops in international waters off the South American country’s coast.

The siege on Maduro is tightening. American ships are approaching the Venezuelan coast and the goal is to remove Maduro from power. The tactics seems to be a missile attack combined with negotiations for Maduro’s own entourage to deliver him. An invasion of a country the size of Venezuela would require a much larger force from the US, which suggests that the plan might involve a coup supported by missile strikes on resistance hotspots.

The big issue is that Maduro has Chinese and Iranian anti-ship missiles with a range of about 180 km, which would prevent any amphibious operation. Additionally, the Venezuelan Su-30MK2 fighters are equipped with Kh-29L/T, Kh-31A, and Kh-59M anti-ship missiles, with ranges of up to 100 km, along with fast boats and patrol ships armed with missiles. All of this is supported by Iranian drones Venezuela possesses. This force could hinder the plans for an amphibious landing by a 4,500-strong Marine force, which would only make sense, if they were there to escort Maduro to the ship.

In response, Venezuela’s defense minister has ordered increased drone surveillance and naval patrols along the country’s coastline, with a statement calling a “significant” mobilization of both drones and naval vessels, including larger warships positioned further north within Venezuelan territorial waters. Extra troops are being placed on the ready in border states of Venezuela as well. 

The United States’ recent naval deployment near the coast of Venezuela on a counter-drug cartel mission have brought the two countries closer than ever to an all-out military confrontation.

Deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford super carrier can carry up to 90 aircraft and its deployment marks a massive increase in US firepower in the region. It is coming from the Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico by mid-November. The naval force dispatched on the highly-suspicious mission includes more than 4,500 sailors and Marines on three ships: The Wasp class amphibious assault ship, the USS Iwo Jima, and San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships the USS San Antonio and USS Fort Lauderdale.” It also includes, three Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and the USS Sampson, in addition to a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser, USS Lake Erie, and the Los Angeles-class fast-attack nuclear submarine USS Newport News.

Warning words by an international expert

However, the falling and weakening power position of the US, due to the massive federal and state debt burden (plus unfunded liabilities of several national funds), accelerating domestic political crisis and dichotomy as well as lagging behind two key competitors (China, Russia) in weapons technology, has caused the US Empire being less capable to protect its position any more.

The prominent international scientist, world famous American professor, Jeffrey Sachs, has recently criticized strongly the US foreign policy and falling position.

If the U.S. A .ttacks Venezuela — Will Russia and China Strike Back? Prof. Jeffrey Sachs

Daily Fans Jeffrey Sachs , October 1, 2025

If the United States launches a direct military attack on Venezuela—targeting ports, airports, and strategic sites—it could trigger the most explosive geopolitical crisis in the Western Hemisphere since the Cold War. This in-depth political analysis, in the style of Jeffrey Sachs, breaks down what would happen if Washington escalates militarily: the scale of Venezuelan resistance, the risk of U.S.–Russia confrontation, China’s economic response, and the collapse of America’s legitimacy in Latin America and the United Nations. Discover how a short-term military “victory” could transform into a long-term strategic defeat—politically, morally, and economically.

Venezuela Strikes Back — Russian Missiles Confront U.S. Warships in a Global Showdown| Prof. Jeffrey

Jeffrey Sachs Official , October 30, 2025

In “Venezuela Strikes Back — Russian Missiles Confront U.S. Warships in a Global Showdown | Prof. Jeffrey Sachs”, shocking new military dynamics unfold as Venezuela, backed by Russian anti-ship missile systems, boldly challenges U.S. naval supremacy in the Caribbean. With warships steaming close, and Moscow’s advanced missiles poised for deployment, the stage is set for a high-stakes geopolitical experiment. Professor Jeffrey Sachs guides viewers through the tangled web of sanctions, energy politics, and shifting alliances. What happens when small state deterrence collides with great-power force projection? The world watches as the new multipolar order tests its limits.

Oil reserves of Venezuela

How much oil does Venezuela have?

Estimated at 303 billion barrels (Bbbl) as of 2023, Venezuela is home to the largest known reserves of oil. Saudi Arabia ranks second with 267.2 Bbbl, followed by Iran at 208.6 Bbbl and Canada at 163.6 Bbbl. Together, these four countries account for more than half of global oil reserves.

Russia holds 80Bbbl and the eighth place. The United States, by comparison, holds about 55 Bbbl, placing it ninth globally. This means that Venezuela’s reserves are more than five times larger than those of the US. Globally, proven oil reserves, which measure the quantities of crude oil that are economically recoverable with current technology, total approximately 1.73 trillion barrels.

Where are Venezuela’s oilfields?

Venezuela’s oil reserves are concentrated primarily in the Orinoco Belt, a vast region in the eastern part of the country stretching across roughly 55,000 square km. The Orinoco Belt holds extra-heavy crude oil, which is highly viscous and dense, making it much harder and more expensive to extract than conventional crude. Producing oil from this region requires advanced techniques, such as steam injection and blending with lighter crudes to make it marketable.

The country’s oil production is dominated by PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela, SA), the state-owned oil company, which controls most of the Orinoco Belt operations. PDVSA has historically faced challenges, including ageing infrastructure, underinvestment, mismanagement and the effects of international sanctions, all of which have limited Venezuela’s ability to fully exploit its vast reserves.

How much oil does Venezuela export?

Venezuela exported just $4.05bn worth of crude oil in 2023. This is far below other major exporters, including Saudi Arabia ($181bn), the US ($125bn), and Russia ($122bn). In addition to crude, Venezuela exports smaller volumes of refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel but these remain limited compared with its potential due to ageing refinery infrastructure, technical challenges and sanctions.

Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC, joining at its creation on September 14, 1960. The country was once a major oil exporter, especially after PDVSA was created in 1976 and foreign oil companies were nationalized. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Venezuela supplied roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day to the United States, making it one of America’s largest foreign oil sources.

However, exports began to decline sharply after Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998, as he reshaped the country’s oil sector, nationalizing assets, restructuring PDVSA, and prioritizing domestic and political objectives over traditional export markets. Political instability, mismanagement at PDVSA and underinvestment in infrastructure also led to falling production.

The situation worsened under President Nicolas Maduro, Hugo Chavez’s successor, when the Trump administration imposed US sanctions, first in 2017 and then tightened those in 2019. These measures restricted Venezuela’s ability to sell crude to the US and limited access to international financial markets, further reducing the country’s oil exports.

As a result, exports to the US virtually ceased, and Venezuela shifted much of its oil trade to China, which became its largest buyer, along with other countries such as India and Cuba.

With the return of the Trump administration in January 2025, Trump issued an executive order in March 2025, imposing a 25 percent tariff on all goods imported into the United States from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, either directly or indirectly. This measure was designed to put additional pressure on nations, such as China, Russia and India, that had been increasing trade with Venezuela despite US sanctions. The tariff aimed to curb the flow of Venezuelan oil into global markets while attempting to isolate the Maduro regime economically.

The tariff achieved limited success: India stopped buying Venezuelan oil but China continued its imports despite the threat of tariffs. By September 3, 2025, Venezuela’s oil exports surpassed 900,000 bpd, the highest level since November 2024, marking a nine-month high.

Reasons behind this crisis

US President Donald Trump has accused Maduro of being the leader of a drug-trafficking organization, which he denies, and there are fears in Venezuela that the US military build-up is aimed at removing the long-time opponent of Trump from power. Venezuela’s Maduro says the US ‘fabricating war’ as it deploys world’s largest warship. When looking the map showing main drug trafficking routes, it is easy to see the US fake story behind the US war preparations.

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro has accused the US of “fabricating a new war”, after it ordered the world’s largest warship to be sent to the Caribbean. The US has conducted 10 air strikes on vessels in the area as part of what it says is a war on drug traffickers.

The Venezuelan government is under no illusions about the US’ real goals. Venezuela’s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez said that the United States wants to “force regime change” in the South American country — a goal it has been seeking for over two decades, since the failed right-wing coup against Chavez in 2003. And let’s not forget the farcical attempted coup by Trump’s hand-picked “interim leader” for Venezuela, Juan Guaidó, in 2019.

It is not hard to see why the US wants regime change in Venezuela: It is not just that Venezuela has more oil under its soil and sea than any other country; it is the fact that it is located in the US’ direct neighbourhood. During last year’s presidential campaign Trump openly admitted that he wanted to seize Venezuelan oil.

Other reasons, why the Trump administration once again wants to topple the Maduro government despite the lingering embarrassment from the Guaidó affair include Venezuela’s close ties to China, Russia and Iran, the US’ three most important strategic rivals.

The ostensible casus belli of this military operation is to take down drug trafficking organizations in Latin America, now classified by the White House as narco-terroristas. They include Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua and the Cartel de los Soles, which according to Washington has close ties to the Maduro government.

This latest escalation began around two weeks ago with US Attorney General Pam Bondi’s announcement of a $50 million bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, up from $25 million. Erik Prince, the shadowy founder of the disgraced mercenary firm Blackwater, followed up by tweeting: “Should be dead or alive.” This must be a sweet moment for US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been dreaming of regime change in Venezuela, as well as Cuba and Nicaragua, for as long as he has been in politics.

Key supporters on Venezuela’s side

Iran

The late General Soleimani cemented Venezuela-Iran anti-imperialist alliance. In recent decades, the alliance between Iran and Venezuela has emerged as a significant geopolitical development, rooted in shared ideological commitments and mutual resistance to Western hegemonic agendas.

Today, both Iran and Venezuela are facing a scenario of American aggression. Due to their shared interests and a culture of resilience, Iran and Venezuela would naturally become allies. Hugo Chávez, the late president of Venezuela and leader of the Bolivarian Revolution, recognized this early on when he established warm ties with Iran but it was General Soleimani who would take the relationship between Iran and Venezuela to the next level.

In 2019, Venezuela was subjected to harsh sanctions led by the US, just a year before the failed Operation Gideon. The sanctions specifically targeted Venezuela’s energy sector, and to make matters worse, the nation was subjected to multiple cyberattacks in March, disrupting major energy systems. It was around the same time that the US was attempting to overthrow Maduro and replace him with their puppet, Juan Guaidó.

According to President Maduro, General Soleimani offered his country’s assistance and expertise to restore the energy grid. Within two to three days, Iranian experts were on the ground restoring the energy grid to the hands of the Venezuelan state. This was a crucial intervention. It was clear that General Soleimani played a significant role in Venezuela’s efforts to repel and thwart cyberattacks.

Iran has transferred thousands of weapon system and Shahed-drones to Venezuela amid rising US threats in Caribbean Sea or Caracas.

China

In late September, China took another step toward embedding itself in Latin America’s institutional architecture. The Andean Community – comprising Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru – admitted China as an observer, joining a growing list of regional organizations that have opened their doors to Beijing.

This new status reflects a pattern that has been maturing for over three decades. Since the 1990s, China has methodically leveraged regional platforms to anchor its diplomacy across the Global South. With the Andean Community now added to the roster, Beijing holds membership or observer status in nine Latin American organizations. This strategy has less to do with symbolism and more to do with influence. By participating in regional frameworks, China gains a voice in shaping agendas, trade norms and development priorities from within.

This evolution demonstrates that Beijing does not see Latin America merely as a source of raw materials or an export destination. It sees it as a political laboratory – a place where a new model of South-South partnership can be tested and refined. The observer seat in the Andean Community is thus an institutional complement to China’s broader network of multilateral engagements, solidifying its regional legitimacy and access.

For its part, Beijing has condemned Washington’s military build-up in the South Caribbean Sea and has expressed its opposition to “any move that violates the purposes and principles of the US Charter and a country’s sovereignty and security.”

Russia

Meanwhile, Moscow has remained seemingly silent on the issue despite its recent strengthening of military and economic ties with Venezuela but “behind the scenes” has provided plenty of military equipment to Venezuela, like 2,000 units of Geran-2 drones.

Russia-Venezuela strategic partnership agreement comes into force, October 27.

Russia has ratified its strategic partnership agreement with Venezuela, with President Vladimir Putin signing the document, finalizing the procedure for the agreement to enter into force.

The agreement, initiated by the president, strengthens bilateral cooperation in political and economic spheres, including energy, mineral extraction, transport, and communications, as well as in security, counterterrorism, and counter-extremism. Venezuela concluded a significant defense and strategic cooperation agreement with Russia in mid-September 2025, when the Venezuelan National Assembly preliminarily approved a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Treaty with Russia.

This agreement is designed to deepen existing bilateral ties in defense, energy, technology, and includes provisions for regular high-level political dialogue and oversight commissions for implementation. By this agreement, Putin is sending Trump a not-so-subtle reminder that Russia still has some global reach. Key features of the agreement:

• The treaty expands Venezuela’s military cooperation with Russia, building on the already substantial relationship, such as domestic manufacturing of AK-103 rifles and joint defense technology initiatives.
• Venezuelan cadets are training in Russia in advanced military specialties, including drone technology and electronic warfare.
• The agreement was advanced in direct response to the recent deployment of US warships, submarines, and fighter jets in the Caribbean, which Venezuela views as a threat to its sovereignty.
• The pact, is explicitly framed by Venezuelan officials as part of their rejection of “hegemonic” US influence and an effort to build a multipolar world order in partnership with Russia.
• Earlier this year, Presidents Maduro and Putin signed a 10-year strategic alliance, which lays the foundation for this further-deepened cooperation and also encompasses arms control, energy sector collaboration, and joint efforts to bypass sanctions.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov noted that the agreement consists of a preamble and 25 articles and “reflects the qualitative change that has taken place in bilateral relations over the past decade.” He added that the text expresses the aim to establish not only a multipolar international system but also a framework for Russia-Venezuela relations that fully represents the priority approaches of both countries.

Maduro’s Russian arsenal: 7 systems that could shift the Caribbean balance

Reportedly, Wagner PMC may have arrived in Venezuela, with aircraft previously used in Africa reportedly reaching the country. If confirmed, the deployment could bolster Caracas’s defenses by combining battle-hardened personnel with Soviet and Russian hardware. The move reflects a multinodal strategy to resist external pressures and challenge the hegemon.

Those 2,000 Russian Geran-2 drones, delivered recently to Venezuela, may deter the US threats. Even Mar-a-Lago Manor is close to the Radius of a Military Revenge. Below the chart showing the US Military targets in the Radius of Russian UAV deployed in Caracas.

The Russian side resolutely condemns the use of excessive military force by the United States in the Caribbean under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated in connection with the escalation of relations between the United States and Venezuela.

“We resolutely condemn the use of excessive military force in carrying out anti-drug tasks,” she emphasized. “We confirm our firm support for the leadership of Venezuela in protecting national sovereignty. We advocate for maintaining the Latin America and Caribbean region as a zone of peace. Steps are needed to de-escalate the situation and facilitate the resolution of existing problems in a constructive manner, with respect for international legal norms,” Zakharova noted.

Conclusions

In the great power game, Venezuela represents a by-proxy vector to attack the United States, and given the situation over the last 5 years, it should be expected that it has been maneuvered into such a position that will bring the wars abroad to America’s doorstep. If there was any candidate that could lure America into its own Ukrainian hellscape, this is the “sure case”.

In recent days, many of the region’s governments have spoken out against Washington’s mobilization of forces against Venezuela. Brazil’s Lula da Silva fears that Trump is planning a military intervention in Venezuela to overthrow the Maduro government, which would put Brazil in an even more delicate position vis-a-vis the Trump administration.

Other Latin American leaders have expressed concern about this latest episode of US belligerence. Bolivian President Luis Arce wrote: “Linking the Bolivarian Revolution and… President Nicolás Maduro with drug trafficking is one of the greatest infamies of the Trump administration in recent times, as well as the recurrent use of the fight against drugs as an instrument of imperialist intervention in countries that do not align with its geopolitical interests.”

At an extraordinary meeting convened by Maduro, the 11 heads of state and government of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA-TCP) signed a declaration describing the US’ actions as a threat to regional security. Maduro can count on the diplomatic support of neighbouring Colombia and Mexico. Colombian President Gustavo Petro warned that the US would make a mistake if it attacked Venezuela.

What we ought to be paying attention to is the dramatic buildup of US military assets off the coast of Venezuela. This mirrors the kind of activity we saw after the 13 June attack on Iran by Israel, as the United States deployed naval and air assets to the region in preparation for the US attack on 24 June. As of September 2025, the United States has deployed a substantial naval and military force off the coast of Venezuela in the southern Caribbean.

It cannot rule out that this show of military force is part of an intelligence operation — i.e., use the saber rattling as leverage over key members of the Venezuelan military to persuade them to launch a US-backed coup and eliminate President Maduro. But Maduro is not alone… He has the backing of Russia, China and Iran by virtue of his membership in BRICS.

Venezuela as America’s next foreign policy disaster. The Trump administration is planning to bring down Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The recent escalation tells a familiar story. The administration is weighing military strikes against drug cartels operating inside Venezuela as part of a broader strategy aimed at weakening Maduro.

While President Donald Trump has not yet approved any action, with the US and Venezuela talking through Middle Eastern intermediaries, the pattern emerging is one of increasing pressure without a clear endgame.

The Trump team has cleverly framed this as counternarcotics and counterterrorism rather than explicit regime change. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a driving force behind the hardline approach, views Venezuela through the prism of his Cuban-American background: Maduro’s regime is kept alive by Cuban intelligence, while Venezuelan oil keeps Cuba afloat. In this worldview, taking down Maduro is the “first phase of cleaning up the hemisphere.”

The problem with regime change—whether acknowledged or inadvertent—is what comes after. The opposition, while legitimate in its electoral claims, remains fractured and largely exiled. The military brass is deeply complicit in narco-trafficking. Any transitional government would face immediate legitimacy challenges, economic chaos and likely violence. Nothing strengthens an authoritarian like external pressure that can be framed as imperial aggression.

But destabilizing Venezuela further—whether through military strikes, economic strangulation or facilitating regime collapse—will generate precisely the migration surge the administration aims to stop.

Venezuela has already produced over seven million refugees and migrants. A state collapse scenario could easily double that number. Colombia, Brazil and other neighbors are already overwhelmed. Where do Trump and his advisors think these people will go?

Realism requires reality checks. A genuinely realist approach to Venezuela would acknowledge several uncomfortable truths. First, Maduro is not an imminent threat to US national security. His regime is unstable and corrupt but it’s not on the verge of collapse without external intervention. Second, the US has limited leverage. The administration has already moved to cancel sanctions waivers, setting a May 27 deadline for foreign oil companies to exit Venezuela. Military action risks turning a manageable problem into a regional crisis. Third, and most importantly, the Trump administration needs to ask: what’s America’s actual interest here?

If it’s genuinely about narcotics trafficking, there are more effective ways to target cartels than bombing Venezuela, which would likely scatter operations and radicalize survivors. If it’s about democracy promotion, history suggests military intervention tends to undermine rather than foster democratic development.

The tragedy is that the Trump administration seems to be headed toward regime change by drift rather than design. If the Trump administration is serious about avoiding endless commitments abroad, it should resist the siren song of regime change in Caracas, no matter how it’s packaged. Venezuela’s people deserve better than Maduro. They also deserve better than becoming the next American foreign policy disaster.

Geostrategic, not only economic, reasons are behind US actions in Venezuela. Jordan Goudreau, a well-known American mercenary and founder of Silvercorp PMC, recently stated that the US is interested in overthrowing the Venezuelan government to undermine “Moscow and Beijing’s influence” in the Americas. Goudreau disagrees with analysts who emphasize mainly the economic issue. He asserts that the US does not want to allow its main geopolitical rivals, Russia and China, to have a strong partner country in the Americas, as this would give them an advantage in a hypothetical conflict scenario with Washington.

Washington will simply attempt to overthrow the government to gain political and territorial control of Venezuela, preventing it from continuing to engage in partnerships with Russia and China.

As well known, the military-industrial complex is one of the main lobbying groups in the US and exerts profound influence on Washington’s domestic and foreign policy. It is therefore normal that, given the de-escalation in some regions, domestic lobbyists are pressuring Trump to launch a new military campaign. Therefore, it is possible that Trump is artificially inflaming the crisis in Venezuela to “compensate” for his less aggressive stance in other regions.

However, starting a conflict in Venezuela could be a nightmare for the US. Venezuela’s geography makes it extremely difficult for military operations. The country is situated between the Caribbean and the Amazon rainforest. Ground operations would be nearly impossible in much of the Venezuelan territory. The US would have to rely almost exclusively on bombings from ships and fighter jets, as well as moderate amphibious raids. This could cause profound damage to Venezuela, but it would not be enough to neutralize local military—which include not only the armed forces and the Bolivarian Guard, but also a popular militia of millions of armed civilians.

Furthermore, Russia and China would continue cooperating with Venezuela in all the sectors in which they already cooperate, including economic, technological, and military. Moscow and Beijing would obviously not intervene directly in the war but they would support Caracas—which is why the plan to neutralize Russian-Chinese “influence” would fail.

In world history, the Caribbean Crisis – or the Cuban Missile Crisis – refers to the tense October of 1962, when the US and the Soviet Union stood on the brink of nuclear war. The confrontation began with the deployment of American missiles in Türkiye, along the Soviet Union’s southern border, and Moscow’s subsequent decision to place nuclear warheads in Cuba, just off Florida’s coast.

Now, sixty-three years later – in October 2025 – relations between Russia and the US have taken a hauntingly similar turn. On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump held their eighth and longest phone call of the year. The key outcome was an agreement to prepare a high-level meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to set the parameters for a summit between the two presidents, planned for Budapest, Hungary.

Relations between the two nuclear powers have been sliding toward open confrontation since the Anchorage summit on August 15, 2025. That meeting, meant to ease tensions, instead became a flashpoint.

Joined forces with European allies (the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Finland) and the American Democrats began a diplomatic counteroffensive pressuring the Trump administration to abandon its tentative agreements with Moscow and escalate the conflict instead – from seizing Russian reserves frozen in Western banks to arming Kiev with Tomahawk missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory. Trump’s rhetoric in the following two months – from mid-August to mid-October – suggested that this pressure was working. Meanwhile, the White House seemed to ignore Moscow’s proposal to extend the New START Treaty for one more year after its February 2026 expiration and to begin drafting a new accord.

On October 8, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, responsible for arms control and US relations, gave a rare public warning:

“Unfortunately, we have to admit that Anchorage’s powerful momentum toward agreements has been largely exhausted by the efforts of opponents and supporters of the ‘war until the last Ukrainian,’ particularly Europeans.”

The situation today resembles the Cuban crisis not only because of nuclear tensions but also because of renewed activity around Venezuela. Facing a surge in narcotics trafficking from Latin America, Donald Trump sought to tackle two issues at once: tighten immigration laws (hitting Democrat-controlled states like California, New York, and Illinois) and move against the government of Nicolas Maduro in Caracas.

Knowing his obsession with winning a Nobel Peace Prize and aware of the indirect influence they hold over the Norwegian Nobel Committee (chaired by Jørgen Watne Frydnes, a known supporter of the Democrats), they delivered a symbolic blow: awarding the prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Now Ms Machado asks Trump to bomb her own country and promises all natural resources to the US. A Nobel Price winner with Orwellian mind!

At that moment, US intervention in Venezuela seemed imminent. Yet only hours before Putin’s scheduled call with Trump, news broke that Russia had ratified its Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Caracas. The timing was impossible to miss.

Trump’s reaction was swift. Though he refused to authorize strikes deep into Russia and continued to withhold Tomahawks from Ukraine, on October 22, 2025, he announced two dramatic steps: the cancellation of the Budapest summit and a new round of anti-Russian sanctions.

Against this backdrop, Russia staged nuclear triad exercises: launching a Yars ICBM from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, test-firing the Sineva missile from the submarine Bryansk in the Barents Sea, and deploying cruise missiles from a Tu-95MS bomber. Moreover, some days later Russia told a successful Burevestnik test and Poseidon test.