From Grand Finale of Ukraine war to Final Countdown of Humanity
Events and processes are moving in light speed today. Just a few weeks and days ago I was talking about the Grand Finale of SMO (Special Military Operation, as the Russians call it) in Ukraine war, as you can see on my website.
Now things are turning in more and more escalating mode so that the key players are stepping the ladders of escalation onto the final steps of total annihilation. Final Armageddon is facing the humanity. What has happened?
A lot of all kind of events around the world have taken place, all of them contributing heading in the same apocalyptic direction. The latest harbinger was the strike on the Russian strategic early warning radar, a couple days ago. Here below I have collected a bunch of relevant events for this purpose, particularly in the context of the great power relations. Let’s examine them, one by one.
Ominous events looming around the world
The US posture on “status quo” cases and reasons to change the rules
The status quo is the accepted political term for unresolved global crises, most of which date back to the WW2. Several status quo situations continue to prevail around the world: the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, Japan – Russia relations, China – the US relations and Western Sahara are just a few examples of these frozen or latent conflicts. Until recently, the NATO eastward expansion and Palestinian question also fell into this category. In essence, it means that there is a more or less tacit agreement between rival powers to keep the crises in question frozen.
To resolve these crises on stand-by, whose eruption is likely to jeopardize regional and even global security, China advocates recourse to international law, the fruit of historical realities and consensus, i.e. resolving the status quo by legal means.
The United States, on the other hand, seeks to short-circuit legal procedures, in order to unilaterally impose new geopolitical realities through the use of force. Thus, at the dawn of the 21st century, one of Washington’s objectives in its strategy to contain Beijing (and Moscow) is to replace status quo situations, which are characteristic of a certain balance of power, with de facto situations, which would be favorable to Washington.
This is precisely the situation prevailing today all-around Russia, China and particularly on the Korean peninsula, concretizing in military and political measures in Ukraine, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
The key reason for this is the tact I have analyzed already a couple years ago, in my article of military power balance on this website.
The present posture of the US is such that its nuclear deterrence (nuclear triad) is in the accelerating “dilute spiral”. Particularly, silo-based, old Minuteman missiles (majority of them over 60 years old and based even older technology) are now in growing amount, becoming out-of-date and irreparable. Two more years and over 80% of them are fully useless and will not function any more. Majority of the rest of US functioning nuclear deterrence is based on the submarines (Virginia-class), which are also getting out of date and should be rapidly replaced by Columbia-class new attack submarines but this project is years behind the schedule. The same applies to air-launched missiles and out of dates carriers.
Therefore, the Biden administration and Pentagon realized that the window of potential power play is open only within next three years and try to maximize the military efforts to get sufficient large wars worldwide to change the balance position more favourable to the US. Russia and China have continuously and systematically developed their nuclear capability and nuclear triad.
The US is clearly raising the military stakes worldwide. Judging by its increasingly militarized hostility in the Asian region, the US is seeking to undermine the geostrategic interests of China and Russia by trying to impose a new balance of power, far removed from the status quo hitherto prevailing and from any prospect of conflict resolution.
The Korean peninsula is one hotspot. Washington is pursuing a strategy of escalation, which consists of fanning the flames of discord between the two Koreas, intensifying Pyongyang’s diplomatic isolation, and strengthening the US military presence in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan. The US has significantly intensified military support and cooperation with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia, in AUKUS format.
Moreover, the US has abandoned, previously cautious and balanced approach in Europe and in the Middle East. Europe has eye-witnessed a rapid eastward expansion of NATO with open strategy to weaken Russia and finally disintegrate it. In the Middle East the US has nearly ruled out old allies and relations, like Saudi Arabia some other Arab monarchies and started nearly one-sided support of Israel.
This over-militarization of the US global approach, may turn itself in an uncomfortable position, seeing with its own eyes that its military might alone no longer allows the US to preside over the fate of the world as it sees fit. Moreover, in the current global context, where seismic upheavals are following one another, it is easy to see that setting the people’s future on a worn-out American hegemon is a really great risk.
U.S. Favors More Escalation In Ukraine, Gaza
South Front May 24, 2024
Putin – Xi meeting in Beijing
I have studied this topic in my previous article here.
Restrictions against China, complementing the thousands of sanctions Washington and its allies have slapped on Russia over the past decade, threaten to put the last nail in the coffin of the grand strategy Washington has pursued in relation to both countries through much of the second half of the 20th century. The vision, laid out by foreign policy gurus Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, centered around efforts to keep Russia and China divided to prevent them from combining their respective strengths to challenge American hegemony.
“A grand coalition of China and Russia united not by ideology but by complementary grievances” would pose “the most dangerous scenario” as far as threats to US hegemony are concerned, Brzezinski wrote in his 1997 treatise ‘The Grand Chessboard’, echoing and building on work begun by Kissinger in the early 1970s to institute his famous ‘triangular diplomacy’ doctrine in relation toward Moscow and Beijing.
The latest meeting of Putin and Xi seems to prove and confirm that “the most dangerous scenario” (a la Brzezinski & Kissinger) has materialized in Beijing, on May 16-17, 2024.
China military drills around Taiwan
China launched a simulated blockade exercise “Joint Sword” around Taiwan: 49 PLA aircraft detected & 35 entered its ADIZ, the largest violation of 2024. Encircled by 19 PLAN warships & 16 Coast Guard vessels – Taiwan deployed HF-3 missiles. China began conducting its most expansive military drills engulfing Taiwan in over a year Thursday, as officials in Beijing warned Taiwanese independence supporters will “have their heads broken,” just days after the island’s new President Lai Ching-te sharply criticized Beijing in his inauguration speech.
It appears that Putin’s visit to China was very successful in many ways and the joint statement of China and Russia surprised the Biden administration, especially Blinken, who just had warned China in Beijing not to develop relations with Russia a few weeks ago and he felt insulted.
Blinken decided to give China some further warning and suggested that president-elected Lai could make a tougher pro-independence speech in the “presidential inauguration”, which Lai did so. The United States actually had been suppressing Taiwan independence for past 2-3 years.
China’s tough response took Taiwan and Blinken by surprise. The large-scale military exercises have made everyone aware of China’s resolve to use force anytime. Taiwan felt afraid, humiliated and frustrated but can do nothing and Blinken also did not have enough leverage to follow up.
The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Friday, May 24, continued joint drills in the waters and airspace to the east of Taiwan island, according to Li Xi, spokesperson for the theater command.
China Warns US Over Taiwan Visits and One-China Policy, May 25.
In recent statements, China has issued a stern warning to the United States, urging an end to all visits to Taiwan and adherence to the One-China policy. Beijing’s stance comes amid growing tensions and increased military activity around the self-governing island.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, emphasized that any consequences arising from congressional visits to Taiwan will be borne by the United States. This follows a series of actions and statements from Beijing that reflect its long-standing claim over Taiwan and opposition to U.S. interactions with Taiwan authorities.
China’s warning is part of a broader pattern of responses to US actions concerning Taiwan. Previous interactions, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan in 2022, have drawn similar rebukes from Beijing, indicating a consistent stance against perceived interference in its internal affairs.
The One-China policy, which the US acknowledges, states that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of China. However, the US maintains a “robust unofficial relationship” with Taiwan, including arms sales to support its defense capabilities, which has been a point of contention with China.
Russian nuclear drills
As a result of belligerent, hostile threats by France and the UK regarding deploying troops to Ukraine and beefing up Ukraine’s weapons supply with more sophisticated weapons, Russia launched a comprehensive diplomatic and military response three weeks ago. Foreign Minister Lavrov summoned the British and French Ambassadors to the Russian Foreign Ministry for a verbal dressing down. They were warned in stark terms that Russia would respond with all necessary force, if such actions occur. As Lavrov was delivering a diplomatic beatdown, President Putin announced that Russia would conduct a military exercise to test its ability to deploy and launch tactical nukes.
Russia starts nuclear exercises in response to bellicose statements from the West, May 21, 2024. Russia kicked off the first stage of nuclear exercises to test the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in the Southern Military District. The exercises will be conducted with the participation of the Iskander missile system and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, the Russian Ministry of Defense (RMOD) said. The military practice training and combat tasks to receive special munitions for the Iskander operational-tactical missile system.
The aviation forces involved in the exercise practiced the delivery of nuclear warheads to air-launched missiles, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. They also carry out sorties to designated patrol areas.
According to RMOD, the exercises are conducted “to maintain the readiness of personnel and equipment of non-strategic nuclear weapons combat units” to defend Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty “in response to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials.” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia command the drills.
Russia starts nuclear exercises , May 27.
The objectives of such an exercise with tactical nuclear warheads besides deterrence.
The first objective is to test the readiness of the units and personnel who load the missiles and drive the launchers. These soldiers are not sitting around on their asses waiting for the red flare to go up. They have other duties they must perform every day. The first step in the exercise process after the national command authority has made the decision to mobilize and deploy the tactical nuclear force is the alert to the units. Once alerted, they have to ensure they have access to the nuclear tipped missiles, that those missiles are loaded into the launchers, that the launchers are in good operating condition and that the vehicles can be started.
The next phase of the exercise is the deployment of the various units to designated firing points. This means the launch vehicles are loaded and the crews jump on and then drive to the place where they are to set up and prepare for launch.
Then comes the moment of truth — either the order to launch is given or they are told to stand down and return to base. The reason the Russians are doing this is to evaluate whether or not they are ready to carry out such a mission. And therein lies the other purpose of the exercise — put the West on notice that Russia is dead-serious about using a tactical nuke if the West decides to enter the conflict.
How might Russia use a tactical nuke? Russia has several other options before it must consider the use of tactical nukes. They can intensify targeting of bases and assembly points where Western forces are operating, by intensifying use of hypersonic missiles, glide bombs, electronic warfare equipment (EW), take out the Starlink-satellite that is enabling Ukrainian battlefield communications. They can impose a no-fly zone over the Black Sea for Western ISR platforms and then destroy any assets that dare venture into the forbidden area.
More information about this available in Danny Davis’ recent video interview with MIT professor Ted Postol below. Ted discusses the difference between the tactical and the strategic warheads and use of different warheads on different targets.
A Very ‘Limited’ Nuclear Attack? MIT Professor Ted Postol explains
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive, May 25, 2024
NATO’s growing involvement in Ukraine war is the key reason
Russian state television has officially announced that, if NATO troops move into Ukraine, they will use nuclear weapons and bomb their headquarters. This was announced by Dimitry Kiselev, who was appointed directly by President Putin to lead the state media group and its branches.
Why such a statement and at this time? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that part of the French army arrived in Odessa along with the US Army’s 101st Division from Romania. The French also appeared in Slavyansk, and the Russians eliminated them within 48 hours. Polish, Romanian and other NATO units were neutralized by Russian missiles recently, in a hotel in Dnipropetrovsk.
There are supposedly a large number of French in Ukraine. The French government sends them there as mercenaries and promises them a lot of money for participating in the war. Such soldiers are given fake discharge papers from the army along with the promise that on their return they can rejoin their original posts and the position they held when they left. Many have already died.
Many NATO soldiers also died every time the Russians took out a Ukrainian anti-aircraft system. Due to their complexity, these defense systems could not be operated by Ukrainians, so the West delivered them along with the experts who operate them. This was revealed by the magazine ‘Foreign Affairs’ (Foreign Affairs), which is published by the globalist organization, ‘Council on Foreign Relations, or CFR). According to them, the loss of human life suffered by NATO in Ukraine is much, much higher than officially reported.
They also wrote that NATO troops have been in Ukraine for a long time, “from instructors to front-line soldiers and they are units from America, Britain, France, Germany and Poland”. The NATO military is also largely responsible for these acts of terrorism, the attacks on Russian territory. For example, one of the attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod, which was repulsed by Russian troops, was filmed. The video proved that what were thought to be Ukrainians were actually American soldiers. American helicopters were also used in Belgorod.
Moscow has been publicly condemning the use of Western weapons for attacks on Russian civilization for a long time but the West, especially the United States, does not even notice their protests. There are many NATO members participating in these illegal attacks on the Russian civilian population and their numbers are still growing. NATO itself is grossly violating its own regulations and directives.
According to the latest speculations (Der Spiegel May 26): If Russia achieves a strategic breakthrough in the east of Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland will put “boots on the ground” in Ukraine. Poland will not allow Kyiv to fall. This means that Poland will enter Ukraine, if the Ukrainian defense line falls. Not only Poland will act but obviously several European countries will send ground troops to Ukraine. It is likely that there are already troops in place in western Ukraine. It is not something that is written about in the media, but if Ukraine loses ground to Russia, several countries will be able to act quickly, if they are already in place in the region. France is one of the countries that will act forcefully.
Western supported strikes on Russian early warning system, a turning point to sudden death?
Satellite imagery confirms a Russian strategic early warning radar site in the southwestern end of the country was substantially damaged in a reported Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week. This looks to be a first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia’s general strategic defense. As such, it points to a new and worrisome dimension to the conflict, especially when it comes to the potential use of nuclear weapons.
A satellite image taken on May 23 that The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs of the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai shows significant debris around one of the site’s two Voronezh-DM radar buildings. These are ultra-high-frequency (UHF) over-the-horizon (OTH) radars that are part of Russia’s nuclear ballistic missile early warning system.
There is also clear evidence of multiple hits on the radar buildings. It is worth noting that radar arrays are generally very sensitive and fragile systems and even relatively limited damage can result in a “mission kill,” rendering them inoperable for an extended period of time.
Regardless of Armavir’s direct relevance to the conflict in Ukraine or the exact intended goals of the attack on the site, it has much broader ramifications. The two Voronezh-DMs at the facility are a key part of Russia’s larger strategic early warning network and their loss, even temporarily, could only degrade the country’s ability to detect incoming nuclear threats. There are also concerns about how this could impact the ability of Russia’s overall strategic warning network to evaluate potential threats and eliminate false positives due to possible loss of overlapping coverage in certain areas.
Beyond that, it has been pointed out that the attack on Armavir could meet the conditions the Russian government laid out publicly in 2020 for actions that could trigger a nuclear retaliatory strike. Russia’s early warning network is part of the country’s broader nuclear deterrent posture.
“The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation” include any “attack by an adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions,” according to the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence the Kremlin put out two years ago.
All of this follows the start of tactical nuclear drills by Russian forces in the country’s Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine, on Tuesday. The Russian Ministry of Defense had first announced the drills were coming earlier this month and said they were “in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation.”
Strikes On Russia’s Strategic Defense Objects Will Only Intensify | Military Summary For 2024.05.25
Russian senator Dmitry Rogozin accused the United States of involvement in the drone strike on the strategic early warning radar station in Armavir. “Washington will have to answer in full! Of course we could theoretically with low probability imagine, that it to be a fake by the Ukrainian Army on its own initiative. However, given Washington’s deep involvement in this armed conflict, the version that the United States does not know about Ukrainian plans to attack Russia’s missile defense system can be discarded. We are not only standing on the threshold but already on the edge, beyond which the collapse of the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin.” The station in Armavir is part of Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces, an attack on which, according to the military doctrine of the Russian Federation, is a reason for Moscow to use nuclear weapons.
Military expert Alexander Zimovsky: I’m embarrassed to ask – does the strike on the Voronezh-DM radar fall under Putin’s Decree No. 355 of June 2, 2020 on the use of nuclear weapons? There, the basis for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is: “The enemy’s impact on critical military or government facilities of the Russian Federation, the failure of which will lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces.” The Voronezh-DM radar precisely ensured the response of our nuclear forces – it detected ballistic missiles on flight trajectories within 6000 kilometers. Apparently, it doesn’t detect any more. I think NATO did that to lure Russia into using a tactical nuke… those desperate assholes in the West have only stupid escalations left – after they lost the war in Ukraine.”
Latest satellite images tell that there have been more than one AFU/NATO strike on the Russian strategic radar system but so far, the damages have been relative unimportant. However, the insane UK government tries provoke Russia to start a nuclear war!!! Unbelievable impudence.
This process is dangerously alarming to the humanity, please read this tweet of today: “Ukrainians have now attacked a second critical Russian nuclear strategic early warning radar at Orsk.”
“Peace” conference in Switzerland, going to be more or less a farce
The US President Joe Biden is not going to attend the “peace conference” in Switzerland. On June 15, Biden is having a fund-raising event for his campaign in California (with the participation of Hollywood star Julia Roberts). Obviously, the company of the pretty woman is a lot better than that of the expired president of Ukraine. US Vice President Kamala Harris is not attending the “peace summit” either.
Ukraine will drag out the begging process until the presidential election in the United States. The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, is well aware that the White House will not be able to refuse to support the Kyiv regime during the election campaign in the US. This is like a death sentence for the “expired president.” Kyiv is not going to fulfill Antony Blinken’s conditions; all negotiations will break down through escalation at the front. The fact is obvious: the White House administration is turning a blind eye on the event in Switzerland signaling others of its detachment from the summit.
It appears that Zelensky’s peace formula is fading into oblivion and there is no other strategy in sight. The leaders of other countries also plan to skip the summit. Western publications say Olaf Scholz, Justin Trudeau and, possibly, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are expected to arrive. The international boycott of the Swiss summit indicates Washington’s pessimism about it. In all likelihood, they realized that Zelensky would not start the peace process.
Western media claim that Moscow is pushing the countries of the Global South to stay away from the summit: Kremlin officials apparently called the leaders of dozens of countries and encouraged them not to attend the summit in Switzerland. China refused to participate and Russia, as a key participant of the crisis, was not even invited to the conference.
Putin- Lukashenko meeting
May 25, Vladimir Putin, accompanied by the newly appointed Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, made a short visit in Belarus.
Some interesting, important and intriguing signals can be found. First, Putin confirmed his openness to negotiations. Secondly, he clarified that there is no one to sign documents from Ukraine yet – Zelensky’s legitimacy has expired. But the most unexpected thing was the appearance of the plane of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in Minsk. Experts put together all the facts and published their analysis on social networks.
In connection with exercises with non-strategic nuclear weapons, the head of Belarus noted that one must be prepared for anything. Vladimir Putin noted that Russia regularly conducts nuclear deterrence exercises. Now some non-strategic nuclear weapons are stationed in Belarus and it is participating in them. We ensure the security of Belarus as well as the security of Russia.
In response to a question about the negotiations and the legitimacy of Zelensky, Vladimir Putin said that Russia did not refuse negotiations. With whom to negotiate is not an idle question. The legitimacy of the current president has ended, so the purpose of the conference in Switzerland is to reaffirm his legitimacy. But these PR moves have nothing to do with legal documents. We need to figure out who to deal with and you can only deal with legitimate authorities. Lukashenko agreed with Putin.
In Ukraine, two options for the consequences of Putin’s visit to Minsk are being discussed: 1. The use of tactical nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus. 2. Attack on Ukraine from the north. The third option might be such that the Lithuanian Parliament has begun discussing the possibility of sending Lithuanian troops to Ukraine. Now Lithuania may decide to send troops to Ukraine to test the Russian reaction. If those reactions are mild, similar decisions may be made by the Scandinavian countries and France.
Middle East: Israel-Hamas war in Gaza
A concept “The Day After” for diplomats and policymakers, dealing with Israel-Hamas crisis, the phrase has only one meaning and that is what happens ‘the day after’ the fighting stops in Gaza. Given the intensity of the conflict and the absence of hope, such thinking might seem surprising, even wishful. Yet there is an increasing focus on what could and should happen, if and when the guns fall silent in Gaza.
EU foreign ministers will discuss exactly this in Brussels on Monday when they hold talks with counterparts from Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with the secretary-general of the Arab League. Across the Middle East and among Western countries, conversations are taking place and plans are being drawn up. Many are aware the window of opportunity before the US election in November is closing.
I have analyzed this topic many times, the latest one “Variety of wars in the Middle East”, April 12.
Middle East: Raisi’s death by helicopter crash in Iran
On May 19, during a helicopter crash, the President of Iran, Ayatollah Raisi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan, the governor of East Azerbaijan province, Malek Rahmati, the Friday imam of Tabriz, Mohammad Ali Ale Hashem, the head of the presidential protection unit, the Ansar al–Mahdi Corps unit, Sardar Seyed Mehdi Mousavi and all the pilots were killed.
The tragedy happened after Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, where the parties commissioned two hydroelectric power plants for the joint use of water and energy resources of the Aras River. The positive outcome of the late Iranian President’s visit to Baku was made possible thanks to the great desire of the parties to interact with each other and the successful diplomacy of Turkey and China.
In total, there were three helicopters (two Russian Mi-8 and one American Bell) coming back to Iran, from which two helicopters have arrived safely in Iran. Speculation of an assassination attempt on the Iranian president has centred around the unusual arrival of a US Air Force C-130 aircraft in Azerbaijan that closely coincided with Raisi’s departure, with sources positing that electronic warfare could have been used to force his helicopter into a crash. With the president having been flown in an American Bell 212, which Iran acquired in significant numbers in the 1970s, the Pentagon’s high familiarity with the aircraft and its avionics was highlighted in these speculative assessments. According to the Sirius Report, May 25, there are a number of conspiracy theories regarding Raisi’s helicopter crash.
The American newspaper – The New York Times notes that “The accident occurred at a delicate moment for international relations — just a couple of days after senior Iranian and American officials held talks through intermediaries in an attempt to reduce the threat of an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. These talks were the first contact between Tehran and Washington after Iran attacked Israeli military facilities with drones in April.”
The incident left Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president, which represents the second most senior political office in the country below the position of Supreme Leader held by Ali Khamenei since 1989.
Grand Finale in Ukraine: the peak is at hand
Military situation is getting very critical from the Ukrainian (AFU) point of view, Russian Forces (RuAF) are advancing on all frontlines and the losses of AFU are getting so massive that “the peak is at hand”. Daily troops losses of AFU are amounting up to over 1500 per day, about 10,000 per a week, which losses are completely unsustainable.
I am going to update later again a new article regarding “Grand Finale” in Ukraine. Here I refer to my previous article “Grand Finale closing the climax in Ukraine”, May 15 as well as “Scenarios for the outcome of Ukraine crisis 2024-2025”, April 1, 2024. Those scenarios are still valid.
Epilogue – THINK IF YOU CAN
An Irish journalist, Chay Bowes, who is very hardworking twitter-writer, has encapsulated the surreal situation in which we find ourselves today into a single concept.
Western insane political “leaders” are leading Europe into nuclear Armageddon without realizing what they are doing and 90% of European citizens are like braindead lambs going into slaughterhouse without realizing anything.