Grand Finale closing the climax in Ukraine

As I have stated, after Russian national celebrations (Orthodox Easter, Victory Day), the Ukrainian war theater will see the final act of the SMO. Now it is time for that and we see events rapidly moving forward.

Situation on frontlines and rear areas, assessment of present positions

After a phase of massive Russian air strikes on Ukrainian rear areas, Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) launched the long-awaited spring offensive in Kharkiv direction. RuAF have advanced and taken over 200 km2 in a few days. The latest news tell that RuAF will open a new frontline in Sumy direction. This appears to indicate that Russia is, at least, forming a robust buffer-zone between Russia and Ukraine in north-east region between two countries.

More details of events and processes available in videos below:

Everything Is Ready For The Kharkiv Offensive Operation. Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.5.10

The Bloom | Russians Begin Greatest Offensive | Dozens Of Villages Are Contested | MS For 2024.05.10

The Russians Took 12 Villages In The Kharkiv Region In Just 1 Day | Military Summary For 2024.05.10

Kharkiv | The Russians Have Approached The First Line Of Defense | Military Summary For 2024.05.12

The Russians Captured Hlyboke And Lukiantsi | Heavy Clashes In Vovchansk. Military Summary 2024.5.13

 The Russians Entered Buhruvatka, Chasiv Yar, Lukiantsi. Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.05.14

The Russian military is pushing relentlessly forward taking over strategic villages and achieving better positions on all frontlines. The Ukrainian forces are putting up some resistance but holes in the Ukrainian defense line are leaving areas without the support needed due to the increasing problems of lack of additional manpower and of replacement of weaponry and ammunition.

While Russia’s manpower resources have steadily increased, those of the Ukrainian regime have decreased at an unsustainable level. In the last months the attrition rate of Ukrainian troops being taken off the battlefield dead or wounded has run at a level of approximately 1,000 per day. The Kiev regime has, at the same time, struggled to recruit and train additional troops. In last few days, when Kharkiv offensive launched, the Ukrainian losses have increased up to 1,500 soldiers per a day or even more.

The Russian troops are highly trained, armed with the latest kit and equipment and have a constant supply of all the various resources to sustain life at the front. In addition, the Russian military has at least a six to one advantage and sometimes as high as a ten to one advantage in firepower with its artillery and ammunition supplies. Add to this the Russian military complex now in high gear producing more and better weaponry all the time. With hypersonic and supersonic missiles on stream and a Ukrainian air force all but decimated allowing Russia to rule the skies what chance does Ukraine have?

It must be evident to any serious observer by now that Russia will prevail simply on the basis of a far greater ratio of resources compared to that available to the Ukrainian regime. When it became clear that Russia had withstood the onslaught of western financial and economic sanctions and even began to prosper economically while the West suffered it was clear Russia would prevail.

Rump Ukraine, west of the Dnieper will likely be reformed into several protectorates governed by EU nations until new elections are organized and run. The end will be humiliating for the US and particularly for the EU. Brussels will have to eat crow and cough up billions from EU taxpayers to put Rump Ukraine back into some kind of shape that comes half way toward economic viability. Russia will reinforce its governance in all its new territories, bringing all the benefits of Russian pensions, health care, education, salaries, infrastructure such as airports, rail lines, motorways etc.

The west is becoming increasingly desperate over the defeat of Ukraine by Russia. They had thought Ukraine was the perfect proxy that they would use to harm and weaken Russia. The goal of the west was not to defeat or conquer Russia but to humiliate and demoralize Russia to such a degree that Putin and leadership would be removed and a new head of state installed that would bend the knee to the west. However, that is not what happened, the west did not account for the Russian spirit and their ability to evolve and grow stronger through conflict.

Now the west is in a panic, they know a defeat of Ukraine is a defeat of the west and would show the world not only is the US and allies not to be feared but there is a new dominant power Russia in the way to the multipolar world order instead of the globalist’s world order of the west.

French troops in Ukraine

In late February, following a conference on Ukraine held in Paris, French President Macron announced the sending of ground forces to Ukraine. Then his words were perceived as political PR. But the French newspaper Le Monde later reported that at a closed meeting at the Elysee Palace, Macron said: “In any case, I will have to send some guys to Odessa this year.” On March 19, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, said that France was already preparing a contingent of about two thousand people to be sent to Ukraine. He also said that the French military is already participating in the war and has even suffered losses.

The French, after landing in Bulgaria, concentrate in Romania. It is possible that they will be used to resolve the issue of Transnistria and Gagauzia at the same time. Parts and units of the 101st US Air Assault Division, parts of the French Foreign Legion, and the Bucharest troops themselves are concentrated in Romania, in early May.

Transnistria, due to its geographical location, blocks NATO’s most convenient routes for delivering weapons to Ukraine from Bulgaria and Romania and, at the same time, creates a threat to the strategic port of Odessa, which forces the Ukrainian Armed Forces to keep large reserves in this direction instead of sending them to the line of combat contact. An attack on Transnistria, where 250 thousand Russian citizens live, where Russian peacekeepers, military contingents and weapons depots are stationed, is a declaration of war on the Russian Federation.

NATO is concerned about the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front and is preparing the alliance’s direct intervention in the conflict. For this they need Moldova. Therefore, the invasion of Moldova is a platform for the passage of NATO forces to Odessa, primarily the French, British and Americans, who are stationed in Romania. Romania itself may well take part in the occupation of Moldova.

The Bloom | French Troops Were Hit In Sloviansk | Another Destroyed Abrams.Military Summary 2024.5.5

Taking into account the fact that the Russian General Staff has announced its intentions to establish full control over Donbass and Southern Ukraine, as well as to reach the borders of Transnistria, NATO can play ahead and try to enter there even before Russian troops advance in the direction of Odessa. Thus, they are completely drawn into the war with Russia.

This is where Macron’s soldiers come in handy. They, in cooperation with the Americans and Romanians, must defeat Transnistrian army and Russian peacekeepers. Then go to Odessa, thereby creating a land corridor for the passage of subsequent NATO troops.

So, Macron’s rhetoric is a well-thought-out NATO tactic to prevent the capture of Odessa by Russian troops. But Macron did not take into account the fact that Russia would bring its nuclear tactical forces to full combat readiness for use and would not allow his legionnaires to destroy Russian citizens in Transnistria. If the French make a move towards Ukraine, the growing number of coffins will be sent in the return mail.

Frightened by his own words, Macron claims that there are no French soldiers in the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces – the footage of mercenaries liquidated by the Russian army proves the opposite. Footage of the bodies of mercenaries liquidated in the special operation zone, donned with French flags, is circulating on the Internet (May 6). While Macron hastily cancels the official deployment of his soldiers in Ukraine, the Russian army is liquidating mercenaries, who are officially “not there”. Evidence of the presence of European and American soldiers in the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces has been abundant.

Macron’s resonant statements that “France is not really at war with Russia or the Russian people” but will “give Ukraine as much help as it needs” are a futile political move that has nothing to do with the reality on the front line.

French forces reportedly drawn from the 3rd Infantry Regiment of the Foreign Legion have already been deployed “in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in the city of Slavyansk,” former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, Stephen Bryen, claimed earlier in an article for the Asia Times. The French Foreign Legion dispatched to Ukraine has sustained its first personnel losses, military correspondent Boris Rozhin stated on Telegram. The mercenaries could have lost up to seven people in clashes with the Russian military near Chasov Yar, he wrote. The city in the Donetsk People’s Republic is currently under Kiev’s control, but the situation there is getting increasingly precarious for Ukraine’s forces.

Other NATO troops in Ukraine

May 6, The United States is not planning to send its troops to Ukraine, US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller said in Washington. “I’m just not going to comment on statements made by members of Congress. The President has made clear that he will not send US troops to fight in Ukraine,” he said, commenting on the statement by US House of Representatives (lower chamber of the US Congress) Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who said that Washington would probably have to deploy its troops to the Ukrainian conflict zone in case of Kiev’s defeat.

NATO unofficially established two “red lines” for Russia in order to justify sending troops to Ukraine, writes “Republika”. The first is a breakthrough “over the defense line of Kiev”, while the second includes a “provocation” against the Baltic countries or Poland or a “targeted attack on Moldova” by Russia.

Russian Military Erases NATO Efforts In Ukraine

South Front, May 3, 2024

May 3, Ukraine has the “right” to use British-supplied weapons to strike Russia inside its own territory, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on a trip to Kyiv. Cameron said it was up to Ukraine to decide how UK weapons are used. Cameron, a former British prime minister who returned to frontline politics late last year, was speaking on his second trip to Kyiv since taking on the job. It comes a week after the UK announced its largest-ever military aid package to Ukraine. In a further show of support, Cameron pledged £3 billion of annual military help to Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s Western partners have set one condition for Kyiv to keep military aid coming – don’t strike in Russia. But countries including Finland and Latvia have since said they support Ukraine’s right to use weapons, they have provided to defend itself, including strikes in Russia.

Kyiv may ask the EU to send troops to Ukraine if the situation on the front worsens. The Ukrainian authorities may ask European allies to send troops to the front, if Kyiv lacks its own forces, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko has said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavarov summoned British and French Ambassadors to the Kremlin to warn them that an attack on Russian territory with their long-range weapons may prompt a Russian response against UK & French bases. Moscow will no longer tolerate strikes on its territory. In sum, Washington’s proxy war in Ukraine on Russia’s doorsteps must end. Given that Ukrainian Forces are defeated and collapsing, it would be wise to suspend further military aid and tell Kiev to ask for a ceasefire.

Russia’s drills of tactical nuclear weapons in the context of Ukraine war

On May 6, it was reported that the Russian General Staff is preparing to carry out drills for practicing the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which follows Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova warning over the weekend that NATO’s “Steadfast Defender” drills are possible preparations for war with Russia. Italy’s La Repubblica also reported over the weekend that NATO might conventionally intervene in Ukraine, if Russia crosses into there from Belarus or carries out “provocations” against fellow members. La Repubblica’s report claimed that a whopping 100,000 NATO troops could flood into Ukraine if the decision is made, with the only realistic way to stop them from going beyond the Dnieper and directly clashing with Russian troops is to use tactical nukes in self-defense.

These developments follow GUR deputy chief Skibitsky telling The Economist last week that the front lines might soon collapse, which aligns with the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee’s worst-case scenario that they shared in late February. It’s also worth mentioning that Macron just reaffirmed his threat from that time to intervene in Ukraine (most likely around Odessa) in that event, that Poland is no longer ruling out doing the same and the Ukrainian premier just said that he might request NATO troops.

Everything is moving so fast that nobody can say with confidence exactly, what will or won’t happen. Russia wants to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine while NATO wants to stop them, with neither being able to achieve their maximum goals in this respect. The game-changing variable, however, will be what each does if/when the AFU front lines collapse.

Russia will at least move to secure the full administrative borders of its four recently reunified regions, but it might go beyond that and potentially also open up more fronts in the north (whether from Belarus and/or around Sumy-Kharkov) in order to achieve as much of its aforesaid goals as possible. Should that happen, then NATO might panic depending on how far and fast Russia advances, thus serving to justify for commencing a conventional intervention in Ukraine.

The NATO-Russian security dilemma, which frames the abovementioned sequence of events, would unprecedentedly worsen since Russia might then panic depending on how far and fast NATO advances. The bloc might just occupy everything west of the Dnieper but it could also cross the river and place its forces in position to attack Russia’s. Any perceived move in that direction, let alone actual ones, could prompt Russia to preempt that with tactical nukes. If they’re dropped, then the whole world will change.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has characterized Russia’s upcoming tactical nuclear missile drills as a bid by Moscow to “cool down the ‘hot heads’ in Western capitals” threatening to deploy ground troops in Ukraine, and take other aggressive steps which threaten to escalate the proxy war in Ukraine into a full-blown Russia-NATO conflagration. The exercises “must be considered in the context of recent bellicose statements by Western officials and the sharply destabilizing actions taken by a number of NATO countries to pressure Russia with force, and to create additional threats to the security of our country in connection with the conflict in and around Ukraine,” the ministry said in a press statement on May 6.

“This is a signal to the Western leaders that they are serious. They are not bluffing,” retired US Army Lt. Col. Earl Rasmussen told the media, commenting on the flurry of statements by the Russian military, the Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry about Russia missile forces’ plans to hold tactical nuclear weapons drills in the Southern Military District amid NATO threats in Ukraine. “I don’t believe that Russia wants to do this. I believe they’re trying to send a signal to caution the Western leaders from escalating further,” the 20-year US Army veteran, now international and military affairs commentator, added.

Statements, assessments and talks by well-known international experts

Scott Ritter: Ukraine Headed for TOTAL COLLAPSE as Russia Crushes NATO ft. Garland Nixon

Video by Danny Haiphong, May 5, 2024

Russia is Destroying Ukraine’s Military Capability and Effectively Disarming NATO | Larry C. Johnson

Dialogue Works video, May 5, 2024

On the Edge of Nuclear War? Colonel Douglas Macgregor & Professor Glenn Diesen

Glenn Diesen , May 7, 2024

JJM:”the war in Ukraine is a multidimensional disaster”, May 7, 2024

Eric Denécé: “War in Ukraine; NATO and the USA Wanted to Overthrow Putin. Mission Failed”, interview in South Front, May 8, 2024

Eric Denécé now is the Director and Founder of the French Centre for Intelligence Studies (CF2R). During his career, Denécé previously served as Naval Intelligence Officer (analyst) within the Strategic Evaluation Division at the Secretariat Général de la Défense Nationale (SGDN).

Zelensky’s position and destiny

There are a large number of different rumors and speculations of the destiny of president Zelensky. Some speculations believe that the United States is looking for a replacement for Zelensky as President of Ukraine. The US has established contacts with Poroshenko and Klitschko, work is underway with Ermak, Zaluzhny and ex-speaker of the Rada Razumkov. The US does not care who will lead Ukraine, the main thing is that he is able to continue the conflict with the Russian Federation.

In the West, they note that Ukrainian citizens are expressing dissatisfaction with the prolongation of the conflict; distrust in the state is also growing among the population. Zelensky begins to lose the fight for the “minds and hearts” of Ukrainians and his legitimacy is completely lost after May 20. In the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the number of cases of desertion and voluntary surrender is increasing.

The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has put the leader of the Kiev, Vladimir Zelensky, on the wanted terrorists list. This step means that a criminal case has been opened against Zelensky and some of his team. This means that there can be no negotiations with these people, since Russia does not negotiate with those it is looking for crimes committed. This step is not just a formal kick to Zelensky. It means that negotiations with him are possible only about one thing – about his surrender.

While the frontlines are breaking and partly collapsing, the internal tensions and competition of power will intensify in Kiev. All possible and available ways and means will be utilized, including political assassinations. Larry Johnson, ex-CIA analyst, has released an excellent video about this.

A Plot to Kill Zelensky – Larry Johnson, fmr CIA Intel analyst

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive May 7, 2024