June 24, 2025 | Seppo Niemi

WW3 in the making in the Middle East?

Warmongering, escalation and war hype are closing a climax. The open wars between Israel and Iran as well as between Russia and Ukraine are increasing in intensity, the supporting alliances behind each party are becoming increasingly evident and new hot spots are emerging. Any local powder keg can explode and start a global conflagration. BUT something is ponging!

Recently, I have examined this subject area in many of my articles like

June 11, 2025 Ukraine, NATO and recent important events

May 28, 2025 Military Overview Spring 2025

April 20, 2025 Ukraine potpourri

April 5, 2025 Europe – The idea of Europe is lost – from peace to warmongering

However, some strange, weird or bizarre features can be found in many recent Middle East events and details during ongoing processes, which only raises more question without answers.

Israel – Iran, at the point of no return?

Overnight into June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that 200 fighter jets attacked more than 100 targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities. This operation prompted Tehran to carry out a retaliatory attack less than a day later, when ballistic missile attacks were launched on “dozens of targets, military centres and air bases” in Israel, in an operation it called True Promise 3. The IDF said about 100 missiles were launched towards Israel and most had been intercepted by its Iron Dome system.

These exchanges have continued since then for every day, the two countries exchanged further strikes and air defenses of the parties have been variably successful in repelling the opposing side’s attacks. Both sides reported casualties and damage to some facilities, acknowledging that their forces had been hit. The cycle of mutual strikes continues to escalate.

Israeli attack on Iran is a major failure of US power and diplomacy, by Bill Emmott (currently a chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies). “If America genuinely did not want Israel to attack Iran and its nuclear facilities, then the launching by its ally of what in effect is now an all-out war must represent a major failure of US power and diplomacy. That failure should not all be laid at the door of President Donald Trump, as the path toward it had already been created by his predecessor, Joe Biden. Nonetheless, it exposes the true nature of Trump’s foreign policy: loud talk plus a short attention span, leading to strategic incoherence.”

Successive US administrations have feared this might happen, because the consequences of war between the Middle East’s sole known nuclear power, Israel, and the region’s largest military force, Iran, are unknowable and could be perilously difficult to contain. Moreover, those facilities are widely dispersed around the country and hidden deep underground, bombing raids would never be able to destroy Iran’s uranium-enrichment and nuclear weapons facilities.

We can only speculate as to why the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has chosen to attack now. Although it is certainly clear that Israeli intelligence agencies’ penetration of Iran’s political, military and scientific leadership has been deep and impressive, the range of contradictory messages coming out of Israel about how close Iran was to being able to produce a usable nuclear weapon – a year, several months, merely weeks – suggests that Israeli knowledge of the true state of Iran’s nuclear program is less than precise.

While Netanyahu has been resuming his war in Gaza against Hamas, President Trump has focused his attention on making money in Saudi Arabia and the countries of the Gulf. His administration did seek to negotiate a deal with Iran over its uranium enrichment program. However, those negotiations so far had not looked likely to reach any agreement that would be better than the 2015 deal that he dumped in 2018 during his first term in office.

So, it would be reasonable for Netanyahu to have supposed that, if Trump did not like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that the US and Europe had agreed with Iran in 2015, he could now be persuaded to support military attacks instead.

In the short term, that supposition has been proved correct. Although America was not involved with Israel’s attack, Trump’s first move has been to try to exploit the threat of further Israeli attacks as a way to force Iran to make bigger concessions in the Oman nuclear talks, or whenever and wherever those talks resume. Yet this is unlikely to succeed, at least until Iran has carried out whatever major retaliation it has in mind.

The Iranians and others know that they would not have been attacked, if they had already possessed such a bomb. The incentive for Iran, like North Korea, Pakistan and India before it, to gain a nuclear weapon as a deterrent will only increase and that incentive will be shared by other countries.

Nuclear deterrence between two hostile countries can work when both have nuclear capabilities, a deterrence, which almost certainly helped to contain the fight that India and Pakistan had last month over terrorism and the disputed region of Kashmir. But when just one of the hostile countries has that capability, it can be destabilizing.

The US mulling “strike or not to strike”

“THE US WILL STRIKE IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES”, seems to be shared by numerous experts, who believe it is only a matter of time before the US deploys B-2 bombers against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is a difficult site to target. The plant is buried deep in the mountains near Qom, in northern Iran. Israel needs help from the US to take out that facility. Israel targeted the site during its Friday attacks but the IAEA said it was not impacted.

When Iran and Israel continue to attack each other, Donald Trump weighs US involvement. Earlier, Trump said “I may do it, I may not do it”, when asked whether the US would join Israeli strikes on Iran. The US president approved plans to attack Iran, but has not made a final decision on whether to strike the country.

US keeps the door open for diplomacy with Iran. The US leader said the Iranians “want to come to the White House”. June 18, The United States remains ready to continue negotiations with Iran, US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House. When asked whether the US closed the door for diplomacy, Trump replied: “No.”

June 19, Trump considers strikes at Iran as Middle East volatility deepens. US President Donald Trump has approved plans for the US to strike at Iran but is still weighing a final decision, according to US media, including the BBC’s US media partner CBS News. At issue is the Fordo enrichment site, an underground facility vital to Iran’s nuclear programme. Only the US has the capability to potentially destroy it.

June 19, as President Trump reportedly considers issuing an unconstitutional order to commit the US military to Israel’s war on Iran, a new poll finds very little public support for an American attack on Iran — even among those who voted for Trump in 2024.

According to an Economist/YouGov poll taken between June 13 and 16, only 16% of Americans “think the US military should get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran. In an even more significant finding, only 19% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 support American military involvement. Similarly, 56% of all Americans say the United States should engage in negotiations with Iran. That avenue has even greater support among Trump supporters — with 63% advocating negotiations.

June 19, Trump did nothing to calm fears that he has lost touch with reality, when his press secretary, Ms. Leavitt, announced that Trump would make the decision on US participation in a war with Iran within two weeks, since there was still a chance for negotiations. That makes sense. June 20, US President Donald Trump will decide whether or not the US gets directly involved in the Iran-Israel conflict within the next two weeks, the White House has said. In a White House press briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt delivered a message directly from Trump: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”

June 17, US involvement in Iran war could end American empire, Trump’s presidency — Tucker Carlson. NEW YORK, June 17, If the United States gets dragged into the conflict with Iran, we could be witnessing the end of the American empire, US journalist Tucker Carlson said.

“I am saying this because I am really afraid that my country is going to be further weakened by this. I think we are going to see the end of the American empire. Obviously, other nations would like to see that, and this is a perfect way to scuttle the USS America on the shores of Iran,” Carlson said, commenting on the latest escalation in the Middle East.

Positions of China and Russia, China – Russia – Iran triangle game

China and Russia have had close discussions on the situation in Iran. Both leaders “strongly condemned Israel’s actions” against Iran, stating they violate the UN Charter and international law. They affirmed that the current crisis, including Iran’s nuclear program and recent strikes, “must be resolved exclusively through political and diplomatic means.” Xi called on “major countries”—implicitly the US—to step up diplomatic pressure for de-escalation, seek an immediate ceasefire, and ensure civilian evacuations. Both leaders agreed on mediation efforts, with Putin offering Russia as a mediator—a proposal Xi endorsed “as a means to de‑escalate”—though China’s own statement did not explicitly confirm this. President’s special adviser, Ushakov added that Putin and Xi will “keep in close contact in the coming days”, particularly as the situation evolves.

But Russia and China are doing more than just talking. A senior Russian defense official arrived in Tehran earlier this week and met with Pezeshkian and his Iranian military counterparts. The Chinese, for their part, dispatched two ships — i.e., the PLA 815A and 855 Electronic Surveillance ships — to the Persian Gulf. 815A, for example, can track planes and missiles, guide missiles, and conduct electromagnetic interference and intelligence analysis. Either country will remain passive observers, if the US decides to launch an attack.

Making matters worse is that CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly told colleagues he believes Iran is pursuing nuclear weapon capabilities. Vladimir Putin made some news, while speaking to a group of foreign officials in Moscow, when he explained that Russia had offered to sign a defense pact with Iran, but Iran declined to do so. According to Alastair Crooke, President Pezeshkian still held out hopes for improved relations with the West and believed that signing such an agreement would antagonize Washington. He now realizes he was foolishly naive. Putin has made it clear that it is prepared to help Iran defend itself by providing air-defense systems.

Two giant cargo planes flying from China to Iran

Journalist Pepe Escobar had an article, April 8, 2025, in The Unz Review:

Russia–Iran–China: All for One, and One for All? where he has said

Russia and Iran are at the forefront of the multi-layered Eurasia integration process – the most crucial geopolitical development of the young 21^st century. Both are top members of BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Both are seriously implicated as Global Majority leaders to build a multi-nodal, multipolar world. And both have signed, in late January in Moscow, a detailed, comprehensive strategic partnership.

Already in April 2025, Washington was accusing China of “getting in bed” with the Iran-backed Shia Houthis of Yemen, who have long waged a war against Red Sea shipping, including attacks on US warships and Israel. The US State Department issued allegations centered on Chinese firm, Chang Guang Satellite Technology, saying it is directly supporting attacks by Houthi fighters against American interests. This firm is well-known to be close to the CCP government, and is already under Western sanctions. The Chinese Embassy in Washington has denied any awareness of these new allegations concerning support to the Houthis. Interestingly, public company documents present the firm’s purpose as providing “earthquake services”.

It previously came under US sanctions during 2023 in connection with the Ukraine war, having been accused of giving high-resolution satellite imagery to Wagner Group, Russia’s most well-known and controversial mercenary firm. The FT report indicates that CGSTL had Chang Guang 100 satellites in orbit as of last year, and there are ambitious plans achieve 300 circling the earth by the end of 2025, which would allow for snapshots of any location on the planet each ten minutes.

CHINA IS PREPARING FOR AN INVASION OF TAIWAN

Ex-president, Medvedev made a following statement, after US-strike: “What did the Americans achieve with their overnight strike on three targets in Iran? The critical infrastructure of Iran’s nuclear cycle appears to be either untouched or only slightly damaged. Nuclear enrichment — and now it can be said openly, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue. Several countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear arsenals. Israel is under attack, explosions are rocking the country, people are in panic. The U.S. is now entangled in a new conflict, with the real possibility of a ground operation. Iran’s political regime remains intact — and in all likelihood, it has only grown stronger. The people are rallying around the spiritual leadership, including those who were previously unsympathetic. Trump, who once entered office as a president of peace, has just started a new war for America. The vast majority of the world stands against the actions of Israel and the United States. With “successes” like these, Trump can kiss the Nobel Peace Prize goodbye — even with how corrupt the nomination process has become.A great start, Mr. President. Congratulations!”

More convincing expert analysis available:

Larry Johnson’s article, June 22, 2025

“China and Russia Reaffirm Support for Iran as Iran Weighs Response Options”

Glenn Diesen, interviewed by Firstpost, June 22, 2025Russia and China Will Not Let Iran Fall, Back Tehran After US Strikes, Warns Expert | N18G

The US building up of a huge strike force and striking, on June 22

US has delivered 90,000 tons of weapons to Israel since October 7, 2023. Israel’s Defense Ministry said the 800th plane arrived in late May 2025 and 140 ships have also delivered US equipment. In June 2025, the deliveries have even accelerated and in addition to this, the US has started a massive buildup of its own military in the Middle East.

Then, on June 22, 2025, the US Air Forces strike

President Donald Trump says the US has carried out a “successful” bombing attack on three nuclear sites in Iran and they have been “obliterated”. On Sunday, the Pentagon said it will take time to fully assess the effect of the attack though it appears all the sites sustained “extremely severe damage”. Israel says they were in “full co-ordination” with the US in planning the strikes. Iranian officials have confirmed the facilities were struck but denied it had suffered a major blow.

The strikes mark a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel.

BREAKING President Trump

US Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said Operation Midnight Hammer involved 125 US military aircraft including seven B-2 stealth bombers. Three nuclear facilities were targeted – Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, the US said. During a Pentagon briefing, Caine said bombers set off from the US on an 18-hour flight, with some heading west into the Pacific as a “decoy”, while the main strike package made up of the seven B-2 bombers proceeded into Iran.

Just before the aircraft entered Iranian airspace, more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from a US submarine at targets at the Isfahan site, he said. As the bombers entered Iranian airspace, the US deployed “several deception tactics, including decoys,” with fighter jets clearing the airspace ahead of them, checking for enemy aircraft and surface-to-air missiles, Caine said.

The lead B-2 then dropped two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) – also known as “bunker buster” bombs – on the nuclear site at Fordo. Caine said a total of 14 MOPs were dropped on two target areas. All three Iranian nuclear infrastructure targets were hit between 18:40 Eastern time (23:40 BST) and 19:05 Eastern time (00:05 BST), Caine said. The bombers then exited Iranian airspace and began their return to the US.

“Iran’s fighters did not fly, and it appears that Iran’s surface-to-air missile systems did not see us,” Caine said. Speaking at the same briefing, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people. He added that the mission “was not, and has not been about regime change”.

Assessments on damages due to US strikes

Six GBU-57 bombs were reportedly used to strike the Fordow facility, while simultaneous attacks using 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched against the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities that the Israeli Air Force had previously targeted. President Trump has claimed that the Fordow facility was completely destroyed, while Iranian state media has stated that the attack only succeeded in damaging two tunnels around the facility. The very high level of fortifications has long left the US Air Force’s ability to target it using non-nuclear ordinance in question.

Although Iran not yet retaliated against US targets, Iran has lashed out against Israel with broad-daylight ballistic-missile barrages that caused major destruction in Tel Aviv. Israeli authorities report at least 86 people have been wounded, and suspect an impact in Haifa may have been caused by a malfunctioning Israeli interceptor rocket. Iran launched its largest ballistic missile to date, a Khorramshahr-4 missile with a 1,500-kg warhead. Describing the strikes on Israel, Iran announced that “the twentieth wave of Operation Honest Promise 3 began using a combination of long-range liquid and solid fuel missiles with devastating warhead power,” with targets including a “biological research center,” logistics facilities, command and control centers, and Ben Gurion airport. Israel said it launched attacks on military targets in western Iran, claiming to destroy two Iranian fighter jets and eight missile launchers.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest and people,” and emphasized that attacks on nuclear facilities violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty, UN charter and international law. Seeking to manage the escalation ladder, the Trump administration has contacted Iran to reassure officials that the American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites were a “one-off attack” rather than the commencement of an all-out regime-change war, a US official told.

There had been great uncertainty whether America’s 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs were capable of penetrating the mountain under which Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility is buried. This is the first time the bombs have been used in warfare. The jets flew non-stop for roughly 37 hours, with multiple refuelings en route.

Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear facilities have been “completely and totally obliterated,” but the jury’s still out. There has been no increase in radiation resulting from American attacks on the three nuclear sites, according to Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, the Saudi Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority and the International Atomic Energy Agency — a reassurance that has some people wondering about the strikes’ efficacy, particularly at Fordow.

An Iranian legislator who represents a city near the Fordow enrichment center said, “Contrary to the claims of the lying president of the United States, the Fordow nuclear installation has not been seriously damaged. Most of the affected areas were above ground and can be fully restored.” Iranian PRESS TV: “Sites had long been evacuated and the enriched uranium had also been relocated”

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said “[we] won’t allow the progress of this national industry—built on the blood of nuclear martyrs—to be halted.” By “martyrs,” the organization is referring to several nuclear scientists murdered by the Israeli government — a campaign that’s spanned many years.

No impact yet. Well-known international experts, interviewed by various news agencies say the strike on Fordow is unlikely to trigger a nuclear explosion or large-scale radiation release. International observers believe the site contained no nuclear warheads or reactors. Iranian officials stated that the Fordow facility had been evacuated ahead of time and suffered no irreversible damage.

I have examined a large material regarding this episode and selected the following, which I strongly recommend reading:

Moon of Alabama, June 23, 2025: “Proliferation, Retaliation, And Other Consequences Of The War On Iran”

Simplicus, June 23, 2025: “Shayrat Redux? Trump’s ‘Invisible’ Fleet Leaves Mirage of ‘Devastation’ in Iran”

Larry C. Johnson, June 23, 2025: “Iran vs the US and Israel — Kabuki Theater on Steroids”

These articles and the latest events, Iran’s strikes on American bases in Qatar, convince me that “this whole case stinks” … and badly.

A new American scandal follows the leaked scandals from Tel Aviv! US air defenses in Qatar failed to intercept Iranian missiles and a video documented the moment a Patriot missile fell to the ground immediately after being launched! US missile defense systems in Qatar failed to intercept Iranian missiles. President Trump’s latest show of today in this drama.