Wrap-up of Ukrainian summer offensive
Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) started the much-hyped summer counteroffensive on June 4 and we can say now that it ended by September 4, along with the dismissal of Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov by President Zelensky. Mr Reznikov had led the ministry since before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Mr Reznikov’s dismissal on Sunday, saying it was time for “new approaches” in the defense ministry. Mr Rustem Umerov, who runs Ukraine’s State Property Fund, has been nominated as Reznikov’s successor. The “blame game” has already started and Reznikov may be a suitable scapegoat, who is culpable for the total failure of counteroffensive.
Besides, this means a “new era” to AFU and Ukraine, inter alia, because of the total mobilization ordered by Zelensky among male citizens inside Ukraine but also outside Ukraine.
A professional analysis about the exact situation can be found in this recent video:
Incomprehensible losses of AFU, comprehensible losses of Russian Forces
Flags fly above soldiers’ graves in a cemetery in Lviv, West Ukraine
Russian Forces, which have been on “active defense” mode since the start of AFU summer offensive, have turned, in mid-August, on the offensive foot on may points along the whole frontline.
AFU’s summer counteroffensive has been a great failure, even a complete fiasco, with gigantic troops and material losses, which are constantly accumulating.
The summary data of cumulative AFU losses have amounted up to nearly incomprehensible level in three months, June 4 – September 4:
- troop losses up to 70,000 servicemen (national and foreign, average daily rate still over a battalion per day),
- tanks & IFVs & APCs up to 2300,
- MLRS up to 50,
- artillery pieces (cannons, mortars etc.) up to 1250,
- military motor vehicles up to 2100
- airplanes and helicopters up to 50
- UAVs up to 2000 units
Number of daily losses of pieces of heavy equipment (artillery, MLRS, radars, tanks and other vehicles etc.) have been remained averagely 2-3 dozen a day. Today, even American media has been realizing that AFU’s dismal destiny is approaching.
Latest info by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu here: Ukraine ‘Lost’ 66,000 Troops, 7,600 Weapons In Counteroffensive; Big Reveal By Russia’s Shoigu
September 5, by Hindustan Times
As said in my previous article (August 20), satellite imagery of newly dug cemeteries in Ukrainian territory suggests that at least 400,000 Ukrainian military personnel have died in battles with Russian forces after 500 days of conflict. The real figure of killed Ukrainian servicemen may actually surpass 500,000.
BBC: ‘Dying by the dozens every day’ – Ukraine losses climb, article August 30. BBC has also (August 30) published a video: “Ukraine war deaths climb dramatically, US officials say – BBC News”, which is a must watch to everybody interested in the reality.
Another realistic video by CBS Evening News, on September 4, available here:
September 4, 2023, CBS Evening News
Military Summary, report The Fall | The Russians Inflict CRITICAL Damage. Final AFU Redeployment. Military Summary 2023.09.01
Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, continues gathering information on the Russian military casualties in Ukraine. The figures we provide are derived from publicly accessible sources, such as social media posts by relatives, local media reports, and statements by local authorities.
According to the data by Mediazona, Russian casualties per August 24, were up to 31,000. Below, weekly casualties since February 2022.
Estimated number of total troops losses (KIA, WIA, MIA etc.) may amount up to the size range of 70,000 – 90,000. These figures seem to be fairly well in line with those previous estimates of early 2023, released in my articles on this website.
Russian losses are approx. 10-25% of AFU losses (human and material), because of the way and tactics of Russian warfare, massive using of heavy artillery, rocket forces and missile strikes until the enemy is destroyed and only then putting infantry troops to offensive.
AFU’s way of warfare is completely opposite, direct attacking without any counting of losses, human or material. The only purpose is to please the supporters and show them some results/achievements.
Air and sea strikes and other “big hits”
August 30 night, Ukrainian formations used drones to attack Russian rear facilities in several regions. Air defense crews and electronic warfare neutralized drones over the territories of at least six regions. Russian military has targeted command and reconnaissance posts of AFU with long-range air and sea-launched precision-guided missiles, on August 30. The attacks achieved its goals, ministry spokesman said in a briefing, adding that all posts were neutralized.
Pskov airfield was subjected to the most massive attack
August 30, the AFU launched 21 drones at the military-civilian airfield. Despite the interception of most of the UAVs, some of them achieved their intended goals. Four Il-76 military transport aircraft were damaged (two units caught fire).
The strike to Pskov was especially unique, situating about 700 km from Ukraine but near to NATO countries Estonia and Latvia. Another possibility is/was that the strike came from the Baltic Sea via Estonia. The attack raised a lot of suspicions, since the airfield is located near the Russian border with the Baltic states and far from the Ukrainian territory. Anyway, it seems to be a dangerous escalation of the warfare.
Zelensky officially declared the use of “long—range weapons” at a target 700 km away from Ukraine but he did not disclose what kind of “long-range weapons” the AFU used for the strikes. However, such an attack would not be possible without NATO intelligence, which is constantly providing the Ukrainian military with the data on Russian radars and air defense systems.
Russian city of Pskov was attacked by drones twice this week. The first was the above mentioned, while the second was stopped outside the city. Pskov’s proximity to NATO members Estonia and Latvia prompted speculation that the attacks were launched from that anti-Russian bloc. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday that “It is also clear that Ukrainian drones could not travel such a distance without a carefully planned route based on information obtained from Western satellites”. The two drone attacks against Pskov are desperate attempts to provoke a Russia-NATO war.
In any case, the two drone attacks against Pskov are very dangerous precisely because of the possibility that they might have been launched from NATO territory. If they indeed were, then it represents an unprecedented escalation of the NATO-Russian proxy war that risks turning their indirect conflict in Ukraine into a hot war between one another. There’s also the chance, however, that these Baltic-originating anti-Russian drone attacks could have been carried out by non-state actors for that purpose.
If there’s any truth to either scenario, though no evidence has yet to emerge from the Russian side to suggest that there is, then it means that Moscow is exercising a saintly degree of patience by not responding reciprocally or asymmetrically.
It can’t be ruled out that at least some of the drones might have been launched from the Baltic States, whether unilaterally by their own armed forces without US approval, in collusion with the US’ subversive liberal-globalist faction, or by state-aligned but formally non-state actors. All of them want to complicate the path towards peace by provoking an escalation in the proxy war, even if it leads to a NATO-Russian hot war but they’re unable to succeed so long as Moscow doesn’t bite the bait.
The importance of Russia’s calm and measured reaction to the latest drone attacks against Pskov therefore can’t be overemphasized since it’s only through this mature response that the conflict didn’t spiral out of control like the US’ neocon hot heads, Kiev regime, the Baltic States and Poland expected.
Russian Forces launched Iskander missile strike on the AFU local headquarter of tactical group “Donetsk” killing a number of Ukrainian and foreign officers, September 1.
Russia resumes its retaliating hits against the recent AFU cross-border drone attacks on its territory, over the weekend (September 2-3) bombing several key Ukraine infrastructure sites, chiefly through drones.
On Sunday Russia’s defense ministry announced its forces launched a successful UAV attack on an oil depot that’s near the Romanian border. “The Russian Aerospace Force made a group strike by unmanned aerial vehicles this night against fuel storages used for supplies to military vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the port of Reni, Odessa Region. The strike objective was achieved. All the designated targets were engaged,” the ministry said.
Russian drones continue pounding Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Danube River. On the night of September 4, Geran UAVs struck Izmail and Reni ports in the Odessa region.Russian drones had successfully reached their targets and the Ukrainian Air Defence forces failed to repell the attack. Several explosions thundered in the area. Ukrainian authorities confirmed damage to several facilities near the Izmail port. Several settlements of the Izmail district came under fire. As a result, warehouses and industrial facilities, agricultural machinery and equipment of industrial enterprises were damaged or destroyed.
Weeb Union YouTube video, September 5, 2023, tells the first British tank, Challenger 2, destroyed by the Russian fire; soon thereafter a second Challenger 2 became destroyed.
Another video of this event:
September 5, by Hindustan Times
Weeb Union has accounted 33 visually confirmed Leopard losses thus far.
Black Sea strikes
On the night of August 30, Ukrainian formations again tried to land on the Crimean Peninsula: at least nine high-speed boats with reconnaissance groups of the GUR and SOF headed for Cape Tarkhankut. The local coast is quite convenient for landing and dropping DRGs.
The advanced boats were detected in advance by Russian troops. Su-24 and MiG-29 aircraft of the naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet struck with four RBC-500 cluster bombs about 60 km west of Russian Olenevka. The AFU lost four speedboats and up to 50 servicemen. The rest of the watercraft immediately after the strikes of the Black Sea Fleet turned around and departed back along the same route. They were met by an evacuation detachment at Zmeiny, who picked up the wounded.
September 4, Russian naval aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed four US-made Willard Sea Force speedboats carrying Ukrainian special operations forces in the northwest of the Black Sea overnight, Russian Defense Ministry said. Russian drones also struck a Ukrainian shipyard that makes uncrewed sea vehicles, the ministry said in a daily bulletin of the special military operation.
Territorial advances of AFU in the summer offensive
An excellent analysis on military situation and AFU chances to get on is available in the article by Big Serge: Escaping Attrition: Ukraine Rolls the Dice, The Zaporizhia Summer Blockbuster, Big Serge, 29.8.2023. Ukraine is really risking the whole existence of the country. So tiny territorial achievements at so enormous human and material costs.
More up-to-date info available also here:
September 5, by HistoryLegends
Total mobilization of AFU
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Thursday August 17, signed bills to extend martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, until November 15. The law became effective as of August 18, when the term of the previously announced marital law and general mobilization ends. Zelenskyy submitted two draft bills on July 26 to the Verkhovna Rada, or parliament, on extending martial law and mobilization.
The parliament approved them on July 27. Martial law was first declared by Zelenskyy immediately after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022 and has been extended several times. Ukraine’s upcoming parliamentary elections were scheduled to take place in October 2023. However, the country’s constitution prohibits to hold elections during martial law.
According to new implementation rules of the general mobilization, a large number of people can be now mobilized, among them all 18-60 male persons despite their study-status or sickness and disabled status, many diseases are no more hindrance for conscription. Besides, a large number oof Ukrainian men are today located abroad, in near countries like Poland, Baltic states and Germany. President Zelensky has already asked the authorities of those countries to send those men back to Ukraine as soon as possible. It remains to be seen, what will happen in this regard.
What now, from this on? Why no peace in sight?
Based on all available data and progress on the battlefields as well as recent political talks, it seems quite clear that the war continues and no peace is in sight, not even any serious talks about possible ceasefire. On the contrary, the stakes will be raised by the parties. It appears that apparently a war between Russia and the United States is inevitable. There is no viable path for negotiations.
Obviously, the only question is how long will Washington politicians, pundits and media continue to bullshit themselves with false dreams of a Ukrainian victory over Russia. Biden and his national security team lack the will to see any possible way to find a peaceful solution. That kind of addictive behavior always ends in tragedy and that is where we are heading right now.
Selected further reading and watching
An interesting new interpretation of the basic reasons to the war in Ukraine, was disclosed by Tucker Carlson some days ago; a video available here:
Tucker Carlson: The REAL REASON US Elites Hate Russia, Hungary Is Because They’re CHRISTIAN NATIONS. The Hill August 30, 2023.
Very weighty talk from some world-famous military experts, Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor, are available in the following recent videos:
September 4, 2023 by Danny Haiphong
Scott Ritter: Russia Are Destroying The Ukraine Army. September 3, 2023.
Douglas MacGregor interviewed by Tucker Carlson, September 2, 2023:
Douglas Macgregor: SURRENDERED! September 5, 2023
Ukraine Shifting the World’s Stage w/Col. Douglas Macgregor interviewed by Judge Napoletano. September 5, 2023.
Phillips Payson O’Brien is an American historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. Professor O’Brien writes an article in The Atlantic magazine, September 2, 2023: The U.S. and Europe Are Splitting Over Ukraine.
“NATO could collapse by 2025 due to growing contradictions between the position of the US Republican Party and the interests of most European countries on the conflict in Ukraine. The cause of this collapse would be the profound difference in outlook between the Republican Party’s populist wing—which is led by Donald Trump but now clearly makes up the majority of the GOP—and the existential security concerns of much of Europe. The immediate catalyst for the collapse would be the war in Ukraine.”