Worsening situational development in Ukraine war
Sometimes headlines go straight to the point, touché. The web-based military analyst service, Military Summary, is well-known of top-quality military analyses regarding Ukrainian war. The headlines of those recent analyses below are very revealing, they describe the situation on the ground well; here one available “The Fall | MI-6 Warned Ukraine About New Russian Offensive Operation. Military Summary For 2023.9.28” Russia is going to take five new regions.
Losses of AFU in September
The weeks in September have been devastating to AFU (armed forces of Ukraine), based on four weekly regional reports of Russian Ministry of Defense (RMOD).
During the period of September 1 – 30, estimated total losses of AFU on the frontlines (assessment based RMOD and other sources):
- troops losses up to 19,500
- tanks and other armoured vehicles up to 420
- other motor vehicles up to 750
- field artillery pieces up to 450
- ammo and other depots and command posts up to 30
These figures do not cover those losses of Russian massive air strikes in the rear areas of Ukraine. Thus, total figures of AFU losses are much higher than those mentioned above and more NATO-trained Ukrainian brigades have been withdrawn to the rear areas due to lost combat capability.
During September, Russian Forces launched 43 massive air strikes on AFU command posts, radio electronic centers, port infrastructure, ammo & fuel & western weaponry depots, military airfields, production and storage sites of sea drone boats as well as training bases and troops concentration sites of AFU troops and foreign mercenaries.
I wrote in my article “Turning Point came true in Ukraine War” of August 12, 2023 that Russian Forces, which so far have been on “active defense” mode, are now turning on the offensive foot along the whole frontline. While AFU’s summer “counteroffensive” has been steaming out with gigantic troops and material losses, the turning point of the performance of Russian Forces has been taking place approx. since August 8-10. More and more daily evidence is coming forth on the battlefields, especially in Zaporozhye, South Donetsk, Donetsk, Krasny Liman and Kupyansk regions.
A professional talk show on “what has happened?”, available here:
FAILED OFFENSIVE – WITH ANDREI MARTYANOV AND SCOTT RITTER, by Garland Nixon, September 22, 2023
The last push
However, despite all the Russian bombings and AFU’s gigantic material and troops losses, it appears quite likely that AFU still tries to make “the last push” in early October before the soon coming rainy season and the later winter season. The obvious target place will be in Kherson region. All this is based on the firm request by AFU’s western patrons, Biden administration and the NATO (the UK and the EU).
Next couple of weeks will be very bloody, highly likely the number of killed Ukrainian servicemen up to 20,000. After this AFU’s “last push”, Russian Forces will start their “final push”.
On September 30, a message in X/Twitter:
“Last minutes” Drama in Washington
The US government has avoided a federal shutdown after both House and Senate agreed on a short-term funding deal. A bill ensuring funding until 17 November 2023, received overwhelming support and was signed into law by President Joe Biden minutes before a deadline.
However, it was stripped of any new aid for Ukraine for its war against Russia – a key Democrat demand.
In a statement released shortly after the Senate vote, President Joe Biden said “extreme House Republicans” had sought to create a “manufactured crisis”, and urged Speaker McCarthy to allow a further funding deal for Ukraine to pass without delay. He said: “We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted.”
What now? – Escalating risk of conflagration
This is the target but … the coverage of this conflict may extend much wider.
Col. Dougles McGregor has well-argued opinion of the situation. British MI6 reportedly has informed Kiev regime on possible Moscow’s plans.
The NATO, the UK and other European players have expressed positive statements to continue and even accelerate warfare in Ukraine. More weapons, more military training and other military support services, no mention of any kind of peace efforts. More killing is the name of the European game.
Western media still talk about the future of Ukraine and its “rebuilding” after the war, utilizing Russian confiscated assets abroad. Media fail to realize the exceedingly poor (= catastrophic) economic prospects for what will be left of Ukraine… which is not even known.
The fact is that, when the war is over, Ukraine will be a bankrupt and largely empty country. Particularly horrifying is the extremely low number of healthy male citizens. To “rebuild” a new Ukraine from the complete scratch is likely impossible.
I would like to close this short article with the statement of Brian Berletic (see his article below):
The proxy war, designed to “extend Russia,” is now making Russia stronger militarily and industrially. At the same time, the conflict and the sanctions the West imposed on Russia are serving as a catalyst for other nations to pivot away from the US-led unipolar world and instead invest in a multipolar alternative, fearing that eventually the West may target them in a similar manner.
It is clear that the harder the collective West attempts to place Ukraine in a stronger position at the negotiation table, the weaker Ukraine and its Western sponsors become. The longer this conflict continues, the worse it will be for Ukraine and its sponsors. For the collective West, winning their proxy war is impossible militarily and industrially, but accepting this reality appears equally impossible for the collective West’s leadership psychologically.
Selected advisable reading and seeing
Upward of 20,000 Ukrainian Amputees Face Trauma on a Scale Unseen Since WWI, September 4, 2023 in Military.com
An American military historian Michael Vlahos has another view of the issue in web media AGON. Vlahos: Ukraine Shares Same Fate as the South in the American Civil War. Danish journalist Flemming Rose interviews AGON’s Michael Vlahos, in AGON, September 5, 2023
Michael Brenner, who is a professor of international affairs at the University of Pittsburgh, has made an excellent analysis of “US Can’t Deal with Defeat” in Consortium News, September 21, 2023. Advisable reading material.
Entrepreneur, journalist and publisher Ron Unz has made an interesting article in his webservice:
Dialogue works , September 23, 2023
Col. (ret.) Lawrence Wilkerson’s last positions in government were as Secretary of State Colin Powell’s Chief of Staff (2002-05), Associate Director of the State Department’s Policy Planning staff under the directorship of Ambassador Richard N. Haass, and member of that staff responsible for East Asia and the Pacific, political-military and legislative affairs (2001-02).
Washington Wakes Up to Harsh Reality Amid Ukraine Proxy War, by Brian Berletic, in web-media New Eastern Outlook, September 25, 2023. Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer.