Visible signs of the approaching end in Ukraine

I have analyzed this topic frequently, latest articles of August 17 and August 8 on my website.

Military sitrep in late August

AFU is playing with the highest possible risk by concentrating approx. one third of its entirely ground forces to the northern border regions – Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod – in order to make breakthrough but leaving Donbass area with only thin AFU force profile.

Both Sides Double Down For A Game of Chicken | Up To 1/3 Of Ukraine’s Army in Northern Front

Weeb Union, August 22, 2024

Will Kursk Incursion Change Russia’s War Conduct in Ukraine? | Syriana Analysis W/ Glenn Diesen

Syriana Analysis, August 21, 2024

Ukrainian Defense Falls Like Drones Over Moscow

South Front, August 21, 2024

Colonel Douglas Macgregor: Contrary to whatever Mister Zelensky says publicly, privately, we know his bags are packed. August 21, 2024

COMMENT by Mikael Valtersson: WILL UKRAINE RUN OUT OF SOLDIERS? AUG 21th 2024

AFU has reportedly concentrated about one third of its available ground forces in the northern border (Bryansk – Kursk – Belgorod), thus taking an enormous risk in the ongoing war. Meanwhile, the Russian army continues successful offensive operations on Ukrainian frontlines in Donbass achieving a strategic victory in the area of Toretsk. After a large Ukrainian stronghold was destroyed nearby, the Russian army took control of New York. The town renamed New York by the Kiyv regime became Novgorodskoe again.

From 1 August to 23 August, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out approx. 60 group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack UAVs to hit: Ukrainian defense industry facilities, enterprises manufacturing and repairing armoured vehicles, and assembly and storage facilities of attack UAVs. In addition, the strikes engaged depots storing ammunition, aviation strike assets, missile artillery; air defense systems, military echelons, and temporary deployment areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and foreign mercenaries.

AFU troops losses (KIA, WIA), August 1 – 23, went up to 51,000 Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries, including those 5,000 losses in Kursk.

Military situation in Kursk and NATO’s involvement

The size of the force the Ukrainians had made available for the operation is now estimated to be in the range of 20,000 to 30,000 or up to one third of all available ground force reserves in Ukraine. For now, the Ukrainian army attack has mostly been stopped though it is still trying to expand what it holds in the very rural area. The operation, even when sustained longer, makes little sense. It gives a temporary moral high to the Ukrainian army and may allow Zelenski and the British sponsors of this operation to prolong the war.

The plan in Kiev is not to negotiate but to prolong the war and to convince the west to further finance it. This would have the advantage of moving billions of additional dollars from western sources into the various pockets in Kiev. This operation comes at the cost of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas. The Kursk incursion took so many troops from the defense of the Donbas that the front lines there can no longer be held up. It has also diverted scarce artillery ammunition which the Donbas defenders now lack. The Ukrainian defense in Donbas is currently crumbling with the Russian side taking several villages per day.

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is critical, with defenses in several areas collapsed, largely due to a shortage of personnel. Diverting nearly a brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which lacks strategic sense. Various western oriented media have now taken a similar view like New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, The Hill and many others.

Some words about Kursk intrusion by AFU, supported by NATO. Sending 14 British tanks to “invade” Russia in the place where the Nazis lost the biggest tank battle in WWII is not a piece of strategic genius; it’s poking a very large bear with a very small stick. The UK’s stake seems to be exceptional high in this operation.

The states enabling Kiev’s Kursk incursion were mainly: the US, UK and Poland guided the units that broke through the border earlier this month. They got training in Britain and Germany. All satellite data and other intelligence for the attack came from the US and the whole planning process was managed by the British military.

The NATO proxy attack is a suicide mission. It’s a short-term PR stunt designed to con increasingly skeptical Western taxpayers into letting their governments continue to throw equipment and money into Zelensky’s black hole. The attack hasn’t even taken the pressure off other fronts. Quite the opposite – stripped Ukrainian defenses elsewhere are crumbling by the day. The Kursk adventure has NO military rationale and even less chance of success than Hitler’s Battle of the Bulge. The Russians will probably allow the reckless advance to continue, then turn it into an annihilation cauldron.

Sir Keir Starmer, the PM of the UK and John Healey, the defense secretary, had been in talks about how far to go to confirm growing British involvement in the incursion towards Kursk. Starmer and Healey reportedly made the decision to advertise London’s involvement “to be more open about Britain’s role in a bid to persuade key allies to do more to help.” In other words, to encourage/pressure the US et al to double down on this unwinnable quagmire.

However, the US is reportedly unhappy with Kursk incursion, because it thwarted peace talks. Kiev’s purported culpability for Nord Stream bombing is, it seems, being used to justify ending German aid to Ukraine and the US is blocking Kiev from firing British-made missiles at Russia.

The Times also reports that Britain is pushing its allies to provide more weapons and to allow their use against targets deep inside of Russia. In the coming weeks Healey will attend a new meeting of the Ukraine Defence Co-ordination Group, where Britain will press European allies to send more equipment and give Kyiv more leeway to use them in Russia. The UK wants to prolong the war in Ukraine. It suggested to and helped Ukraine to invade Russia even as it knew that this would interrupt peace talks in Qatar. But the US and Germany are still blocking such attacks.

Is the invasion of Kursk a success or a failure? – Diesen, Schulman, and Zalmayev on CGTN

August 22, 2024

Estimated value of destroyed western units by the RuAF in Kursk, per August 23: $ 2 billion and estimated daily dollar losses are up to $ 100 million. British equipment, including drones, have played a central role in Ukraine’s new offensive and British personnel have been closely advising the Ukrainian military for two years, on a scale matched by no other country.

Expert assessments on Kursk operation

Russia Unleashes Fury: Kursk Offensive DEVASTATES Ukraine – No More Holding Back! | Scott Ritter

Dialogue Works, Scott Ritter interviewed by Nima R. Alkhorshid, August 18, 2024

ANDREI MARTYANOV: PUTIN’S KURSK REVENGE DEVASTATES UKRAINE, NATO WILL CEASE TO EXIST

Danny Haiphong, August 22, 2024

The great risk of invading Kursk – Prof Glenn Diesen on Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera, August 22, 2024  

NATO invades Russia? – Colonel Douglas Macgregor & Prof Glenn Diesen

Glenn Diesen, August 22, 2024

General Apti Alaudinov, Commander of the Chechen “Akhmat” Special Forces, updated on August 22: The enemy has been stopped and has suffered significant losses. A strike in another area is possible. He added that this operation was planned by the NATO Joint Chiefs of Staff and is organized and monitored by the Americans and British officers. Bradley Gerike, the American General, described AFU offensive in Kursk as the most unsuccessful military operation of the 21^st century.

Even the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the US, General Charles Brown, has privately called the Ukrainian operation in Kursk “the most expensive photo booth in history, only capable of taking selfies instead of performing in combat”.

The Kursk invasion by Ukraine also highlights the resilience of the Russian leadership in the face of Western media pressure. Many expected that Russia would do everything in its power to push Ukraine out of the Kursk region. This expectation was exactly what Ukraine had hoped for—the diversion of Russian forces from the Donbass front to relieve pressure there by pulling them into the Kursk region.

However, this has not happened. Instead, Russia continues to wage its war of attrition against Ukraine, now in the Kursk region, while maintaining dominance in the Donbass. Thus, the attempt to force Russia into a reactive position has failed. Despite all the criticism, the Russian government seems entirely indifferent to how Western media perceives or judges it. In conclusion, Russia’s ability to resist external pressures and adhere to its strategic goals underscores a degree of strategic independence and resilience that complicates the situation for Ukraine and its allies.

Some special actions

F-16 case

AFU is taking in actual use the first 2-4 F-16 fighter jets, now available at Poland/Romania airfields.

Obviously, the planes will be piloted by some retired NATO pilots in the beginning.

Drone attacks in Kola Peninsula

I have analyzed the first such strike in my article of August 8, 2024 “From proxy war to direct war in Ukraine”. I wrote:

“Exceptionally severe incident took place on Saturday, July 27, when Ukrainian drone hit Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airfield. The Olenya airbase is located some 90 km south of Murmansk. Distance to Finland is about 150 km and distance to the Norwegian border is about 200 km. The strategic air base at Olenya is nearly up to 2,000 kilometers north of Russia’s border to Ukraine.”

Now, it is possible that a second similar incident has happened, August 21.

Ukrainian drone/UAV attack in Russian Kola Peninsula appears to be A22 Foxbat drone.

All the generally known versions of A22 Foxbat cannot fly so long distance, from Ukraine to Kola, about 1500 km. This refers to the possibility that the drone has been launched from the place, which locates much nearer to the target. There are speculations that it was again Finland.

Ominous signs

Many political observers are waiting for the Kremlins “response” to the Kursk incursion, but as known, the Russian President is not prone to rash or reactionary responses. Some analysts believe that the strategy in the West is to force Russia to significantly escalate the conflict in Ukraine. Putin has no intention of playing a role defined for him or Russia in Washington or London. Reasons to this “non-reaction” of Russia seems to be: recent significant visits by foreign heads of states – India’s Modi and Poland’s Tusk – in Kiev; exchange of POWs (115 soldiers) on August 23; Kremlin’s purpose to not disclose its endeavors beforehand.

During President Putin’s first trip to Chechnya in 13-years, he was impressed with seeing how much the massive amount of invested Russian money has developed the region, especially in futuristic Grozny. Kadyrov also awarded Putin the title of honorary citizen of the republic.

There’s an increasing sense here that Putins’ unscheduled visit to Checnya is significant. No doubt, Kadyrov’s extra contribution to Kursk operation will be significant.

Many embassies have warned their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible, among others the US, Germany and China.

The Chinese military delegation arrived in Moscow for bilateral negotiations. No doubt, this meeting is Very Important. Deputy Defence Minister of the Russian Federation Colonel General Aleksandr Fomin holds protocol meeting with Commander of People’s Liberation Army Ground Force General Li Qiaoming.

China is going to provide any and all military support to Russia as requested by RUSSIA. It’s quite clear that NATO has overstepped the final red line and via its proxy of Kiev regime, attacked directly Russia.

Preparations for “Big Strike” continues.

Assessment of the Author of this website

I start with the quotation of Mr Borrell’s recent statement. Josep Borrell, the EU “foreign minister” demands lifting restrictions on Western weapons strikes on Russian territory “to advance peace efforts”.

Maybe someone will drop nukes both in Brussels and in Kiev for maximizing peace efforts. The people like Borrell have lost their minds completely … poor European citizens.

It is tragic and scary that the elite of the EU is so completely living its own fantasy bubble, not realizing the hard facts around them. The same conclusion applies to Western “military experts” as well.

Here below is the video of professor John Mearsheimer, who has important things to say.

John Mearsheimer: Russia PREPARES a DEVASTATING Response as Ukraine PLANS Multi-Directional Assault

Labonno Recipe , August 24, 2024

After the Zelensky regime sent its troops to storm the Kursk region, many experts put forward a variety of versions regarding the goals of this operation. Some stated that the Kiev regime intended to seize the Kursk NPP, others called the invasion a “media adventure” or the desire to pull some of the Russian Armed Forces units to the Kursk direction in order to ease the situation in Donbass, where the Kiev regime have recently been suffering catastrophic losses.

Meanwhile, more than two weeks have passed since the Ukrainian army invaded the Russian border area and the Russian military-political command has still not thrown all available forces into “putting out the fire” in the Kursk region. The question is why the Russian authorities are “in no hurry” to liberate the Kursk region.

This process confirms, as I have many times stated, that the strategic goal of the Russian command is to establish full control over the territory of the Donetsk region, which will ultimately lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian government and force Kiev to negotiate on Moscow’s terms.

As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to leave the captured territories of the Kursk region without a fight, which will allow the Russian authorities to avoid a scenario with large-scale destruction and urban battles.

There is no particular panic in Moscow about the situation in the Kursk region. Vladimir Putin does not think that the Ukrainian offensive has much impact on his broader strategic calculations.

Based on all the events and processes, described above, I share the understanding of General Apti Alaudinov regarding the war in Ukraine.

EXTRA WORDS OF TODAY … IT HAS STARTED NOW!!!