Turbulent world – full of powder kegs, Part III

This is now the third part of my series and focuses on “World order and polarity issue – Two Camps in the making”.

Part I, November 20, 2025

Ukraine – a proxy war between Russia and NATO & EU

Taiwan & South China Sea – a competition for world hegemon between China and the US

Venezuela crisis – a re-updated Monroe Doctrine by Trump – all great powers involved

Part II, December 8, 2025

Multidimensional, “forever” drama in the Middle East – all great powers involved

Eurasian chessboard – China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Russia – BRICS and SCO

Korean “forever” crisis – all great powers involved

Part III, December 19, 2025

World order and polarity issue – Two Camps in the making

Here we firstly focus on the recent national security report of the US and then consider the general features and trajectories of the current world order and polarity.

National Security Strategy 2025 of the United States

The new US national security strategy report was released by the Trump administration in November 2025, the previous was from October 2022 by Biden administration.

The report starts with the introduction “What is American Strategy? The purpose of foreign policy is the protection of core national interests; that is the sole focus of this strategy. Three key questions are: What we want, what are the means and how can we connect ends and means into a viable National Security Strategy?

NSS 2025 answers this way:

1) the continued survival and safety of the United States as an independent, sovereign republic whose government secures the God-given natural rights of its citizens and prioritizes their well-being and interests.

2) full control over our borders, over our immigration system, and over transportation networks through which people come into our country—legally and illegally.

3) to recruit, train, equip, and field the world’s most powerful, lethal, and technologically advanced military to protect our interests, deter wars, and—if necessary—win them quickly and decisively, with the lowest possible casualties to our forces.

4) the world’s strongest, most dynamic, most innovative, and most advanced economy. The U.S. economy is the bedrock of the American way of life. Our economy is also the bedrock of our global position and the necessary foundation of our military.

5) the world’s most robust industrial base, the world’s most robust, productive, and innovative energy sector and the world’s most scientifically and technologically advanced and innovative country.

6)Finally, the restoration and reinvigoration of American spiritual and cultural health, without which long-term security is impossible. America cherishes its past glories and its heroes, and that looks forward to a new golden age. This cannot be accomplished without growing numbers of strong, traditional families that raise healthy children.

Achieving these goals requires marshaling every resource of our national power. Yet this strategy’s focus is foreign policy. America’s core foreign policy interests are:

• the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States. In other words, a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.
• keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open, preserving freedom of navigation in all crucial sea lanes, and maintaining secure and reliable supply chains and access to critical materials
• support our allies in preserving the freedom and security of Europe, while restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity
• prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East, its oil and gas supplies, and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the “forever wars”
• ensure that U.S. technology and U.S. standards—particularly in AI, biotech, and quantum computing—drive the world forward.

In the strategy, American foreign, defense, and intelligence policies must be driven by the following basic principles:

• Focused Definition of the National Interest
• Peace Through Strength
• Predisposition to Non-Interventionism
• Flexible Realism
• Primacy of Nations – The world’s fundamental political unit is and will remain the nation-state.
• Sovereignty and Respect
• Balance of Power – maintain global and regional balances of power to prevent the emergence of dominant adversaries.
• Pro-American Worker
• Fairness – no more free-riding, trade imbalances, predatory economic practices, and other impositions on our nation’s historic goodwill that disadvantage our interests.
• Competence and Merit

Key priorities in foreign policies are:

• The Era of Mass Migration Is Over
• Protection of Core Rights and Liberties – The purpose of the American government is to secure the God-given natural rights of American citizens. America opposes elite-driven, anti-democratic restrictions on core liberties in Europe, the Anglosphere, and the rest of the democratic world, especially among our allies.
• Burden-Sharing and Burden-Shifting
• Realignment Through Peace
• Economic Security

Finally, NSS prioritizes and focuses on the key regions worldwide: Western Hemisphere, Asia, Europe, Middle East, Africa.

The Western Hemisphere is the top priority. The “Trump Corrolary” to the Monroe Doctrine is the centerpiece and will seek to deny non-hemispheric competitors’ ownership or control of strategically vital assets in an allusion to China’s influence over the Panama Canal.

The NSS envisages enlisting regional champions and friendly forces to help ensure regional stability for preventing migrant crises, fighting the cartels, and eroding the aforesaid competitors’ influence. This aligns with the “Fortress America” strategy of restoring US hegemony in the hemisphere.

Asia is next to the NSS’ hierarchy of priorities. Together with its incentivized partners, the US will rebalance trade ties with China, compete more vigorously with it in the Global South in an allusion to challenging BRI, and deter China over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Trade loopholes through third countries like Mexico will be closed, the Global South will tie its currencies more closely to the dollar, and Asian allies will grant the US greater access to their ports, etc., while ramping up defense spending.

As for Europe, the US wants it “to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation” to avoid “civilizational erasure”.

The US will “manage European relations with Russia”, “build up the healthy nations of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe” and ultimately “help Europe correct its current trajectory.” A hybrid set of economic and political tools will be employed to this end.

Middle East – important but no longer central

The 2025 NSS states the US no longer needs a large military presence in the Middle East. Instead, Washington will prioritize counterterrorism, safeguard strategic energy chokepoints, prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, act as mediator in regional conflicts.

West Asia and Africa are at the bottom of the NSS’ priorities. The US foresees West Asia becoming a greater source of investment and destination of such, while Africa ties with the US will transition from a foreign aid paradigm to investment and growth measures. Like with the rest of the world, the US wants to keep the peace through optimized burden-sharing and without overextending itself, but it’ll also keep an eye on Islamist terrorist activity in both regions too.

Overall assessment of NSS 2025

The US National Security Strategy 2025 marks a major turning point in Washington’s strategic thinking. Gone are the familiar assertions about “leading the free world,” “defending global democracy,” or “expanding international engagement.” Instead, the 2025 document returns to a foundational principle: America must be strengthened from within before it projects power outward. The document begins with a rare admission: for decades after the Cold War, the United States pursued broad, idealized goals that often diverged from its core national interests.

The 2025 Strategy responds to this legacy by asserting three defining characteristics:

1. A clear realist mindset: prioritizing national interests, territorial security, and strategic autonomy.
2. A redefinition of the scope and limits of America’s role as an “international policeman.”
3. A fusion of economic protectionism, national reconstruction, and selective strategic competition, especially in technology, defense industries, and supply chains.

The new NSS reconceptualizes, narrows, and reprioritizes US interests. Focus is placed on the primacy of nations over transnational organizations, preserving the balance of power through optimized burden-sharing, and the US’ reindustrialization that’ll be facilitated by securing critical supply chains.

The following passage sums up the NSS’ new approach:

“As the United States rejects the ill-fated concept of global domination for itself, we must prevent the global, and in some cases even regional, domination of others.”

To that end, the balance of power must be maintained through pragmatic carrot-and-stick policies in conjunction with close partners, which include securing critical supply chains (especially those in the Western Hemisphere). This is essentially how Trump 2.0 plans to respond to multipolarity.

The grand strategic goal is to restore the US’ central role in the global system, but if that’s not possible and it loses control of the Eastern Hemisphere to China, then Plan B is to retreat to the Western Hemisphere, which will be autarkic under the US’ hegemony if it succeeds in building “Fortress America”.

Here, a long but interesting analysis by DPA regarding NSS 2025 as well as a talk by Larry Johnson and Paul Craig Roberts

LIVE Read & Reaction to: National Security Strategy of the United States of America – Nov 2025

Defense Politics Asia (DPA) December 7, 2025

Larry C. Johnson & Paul Craig Roberts: Trump’s New NSS: This is the End of NATO – Iran’s Major Move

Dialogue Works December 8, 2025

Russia has welcomed US President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy, calling it “largely consistent” with Moscow’s vision. The 33-page document suggests Europe is facing “civilizational erasure” and does not cast Russia as a threat to the US. Combating foreign influence, ending mass migration and rejecting the EU’s perceived practice of “censorship” are mentioned as other priorities in the report.

Several EU officials and analysts had pushed back on the strategy, questioning its focus on freedom of expression and likening it to language used by the Kremlin. In the document, the EU is blamed for blocking US efforts to end the conflict and says that the US must “re-establish strategic stability to Russia” which would “stabilize European economies”. The new report also calls for the restoration of “Western identity”, and claims that Europe will be “unrecognizable in 20 years or less” and its economic issues are “eclipsed by the real and starker prospect of civilizational erasure”. In stark contrast, the document celebrates the influence of “patriotic European parties” and says “America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit”.

A clear break from Western Europe. The most controversial part of the document is devoted to relations with Western Europe, which openly criticizes these countries’ policies. “Should current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.” The document states that the Ukraine conflict has only increased Europe’s foreign dependency, especially that of Germany. Washington continues to put pressure on the continent’s leaders, underscoring that they should forget about the possibility of NATO expansion.

Moreover, US rhetoric on Western Europe has become tougher. At the end of November, the US authorities called on Europeans to relax legislation related to digital content, promising in return to somewhat reduce tariffs on steel. However, Europe not only rejected this proposal, but also defiantly issued a massive $140 million fine to Musk’s social network. Another irking factor was X’s advertising policy and its refusal to share user data with the EU. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Europe had committed an attack on all American technology platforms and the people of the United States.

Elon Musk was even more scathing in his criticism, saying: “The EU should be abolished and sovereignty returned to individual countries, so that governments can better represent their people.” US authorities clearly do not like European powers’ attempts to disrupt the planned political settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, and they also do not approve of the EU’s intention to steal frozen Russian assets.

Civilisational Erasure. In terms of Europe, the document warns that if current trends continue, the continent could be “unrecognisable in 20 years or less,” with economic troubles overshadowed by what it describes as the threat of “civilisational erasure.”

The report accuses the EU and other multinational bodies of undermining member states’ political sovereignty and argues that migration policies are stoking social conflict. It also cites concerns about restrictions on free speech, declining birth rates, and what it portrays as a loss of national identity and confidence amongst EU member states. In contrast, it praises the rise of “patriotic European parties” and asserts that the U.S. should encourage this political revival across the continent.

Whether this signals the death knell for NATO and the EU or a pragmatic pivot away from overextension remains to be seen—but as reactions from Brussels’ outrage to Moscow’s approval underscore, the transatlantic rift is no longer subtext; it is policy.

Russia-US détente can revolutionize global economic architecture

In the new paradigm, resources-rich Russia would move from the periphery toward the core. Joint strategic resource investments after the end of the Ukrainian Conflict, particularly in energy and critical minerals, can assist the US in economically competing with China. This vision aligns with the focus of the new NSS on securing critical resource supply chains, and it can prospectively be expanded to aid the United States’ allies, further advancing US goals. Given Russia’s richness in critical minerals deposits, the central role that their development is expected to play in the “new détente”, it’s possible that associated projects could include Asian allies of the US. This could take the form of the US providing sectoral secondary sanctions waivers to India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and others as rewards for Russia’s compliance with a Ukrainian peace deal to incentivize joint investments.

Through these means, the renascent Russia-US new détente could revolutionize the global economic architecture by removing China’s centricity therein, which would help the US and its Asian allies better compete with it. Significantly, Russia would also move from its present place on the periphery of the global economic architecture towards the core of that architecture, due to the importance of Russian strategic resources in this paradigm – thus reaching Russia’s grand economic goal.

The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), marks a significant rhetorical shift from the 2022 Biden-era document, emphasizing “America First” non-interventionism, economic priorities, and reduced focus on the Middle East.

Iran receives only cursory treatment—far less emphasis than in prior strategies—portrayed as a diminished regional threat following US and Israeli military actions. The NSS portrays Iran as “the region’s chief destabilizing force,” but asserts it has been “greatly weakened by Israeli actions since October 7, 2023, and President Trump’s June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, which significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program.”

It is also interesting that Israel is hardly mentioned, likely losing its “greatest ally” tag due to the incredibly few mentions it gets. Israel appears only ~6 times. The Middle East is deprioritized (“no longer the top strategic priority,” requiring only “careful management”). This contrasts with prior NSS documents’ heavy focus on Israel as a cornerstone ally.

Such officially documented shifts in American foreign policy can be assumed to be the result of several important factors. A clash between the US and China, is becoming more likely with each passing year. The European region consumes a significant amount of military and financial resources. If the conflict escalates, Washington may not have enough strength to respond.

America’s reign as sole superpower lasted from the 1990s until recently. Today, China has emerged as a new great power but on the other hand, a shift from American unipolarity has led to a more multipolar system, where at least three quite equal competitors play: the US, China and Russia and some new potential nations are sooner or later coming: India, Brazil, Japan, Pakistan, South Africa.

After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of America. The US elites badly miscalculated America’s willingness to shoulder forever global burdens to which the American people saw no connection to the national interest. They overestimated America’s ability to fund, simultaneously, a massive welfare regulatory-administrative state alongside a massive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid complex. 

The new national strategy document states that the US will, “seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories.” Another notable shift. The world is changing. If the last 25 years prove anything, it’s that being the world’s policeman is overrated. America now has a chance to rebuild its once dominant industrial infrastructure and focus on its citizens’ wellbeing.

Overall Big Picture

I have studied this topic many times in my articles, the latest one is

January 9, 2025 Big Picture at the turn of the year 2024 / 2025

where I presented, as an introduction, the following theoretical framework

Theoretical framework

The collapse of Soviet Union (1990) moved the world system from bipolarity to the new world order based on unipolarity, the US-led unilateral world order with market economy and liberal hegemon. The first post-Cold War decennium was characterized by optimism, hopes, values and views of the better and safer future, at least among Western countries.

Historian Francis Fukuyama wrote an article: End of History in the National Interest 1989 (which later was published in the form of the book: End of History and The Last Man, 1993).  Fukuyama’s main themes were that after the Cold War, the ideological development is ending, market economy and democracy based on Western liberal values will become as global societal order.

In 1993, as a reply to Fukuyama, Samuel Huntington wrote an article in Foreign Affairs (Summer 1993): Clash of Civilizations. According to Huntington, ideological confrontations may step down aside but instead come cultural and religious value contradictions, which cause clashes between civilizations.

There have been many discussions and argumentation, both among scientists and scholars as well as in public media that the world moved from hard geopolitical and power politics to soft power world. Fukuyama’s end of history lasted 20 years and ended by Putin’s prophetic speech in Munich 2007, which started an era of turbulence and slow transformation process accelerating and culminating in 2022 Ukraine crisis. Huntington’s clash of civilizations did not take place either as such but something much bigger is now emerging, a clash of “two world camps”.

In this framework of great powers, numerous processes, both external and internal, began to transform “the minds and people” around the world. Humanity seems to be divided into two camps:

The Western Camp, “Axis of US Empire” (the US and its allies Canada, EU and other West Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea) and The Eastern Camp, “Axis of Resistance” led by China and Russia and their close allies Iran and North Korea, CIS and CSTO countries, covering majority of Asia, Africa and South America, so called “Global South”. The eastern group consists of most of humanity, both in terms of countries and people. The ratio is six billion people in the east and to one billion in the west. No doubt, which camp will prevail. The leadership will shift to the east and remain there well into the next century.

Now, a year later, this picture seems to be even more obvious – particularly the Eastern Camp is really taking clear form in the framework of BRICS, SCO, CIS, CSTO, North Korea and led by China and Russia.

The Western Camp is showing some signs of cracking and disintegration. Transatlantic relations between the US vs. western Europe, the EU and NATO have become tense. The US has shown its dislike for the EU and NATO.

Hereunder are three interesting videos where well-known experts are commenting on recent events in the world, from which the last one by John Mearsheimer is of Especially Significant.

Alex Krainer: NATO Lost Ukraine War – New Economic World Order Awaits

Glenn Diesen November 11, 2025

Alex Krainer is a market analyst, author & former hedge fund manager. Krainer, interviewed by prof. Glenn Diesen, discusses the economic and political consequences of NATO’s pending loss of the proxy war in Ukraine.

JUST IN: China Wins Strategic War — U.S. Isolated as NATO Collapses Across Europe | John Mearsheimer

Professor John Mearsheimer  December 17, 2025

In this explosive analysis, John Mearsheimer breaks down how China has effectively won a strategic war, leaving the United States increasingly isolated as NATO shows clear signs of collapse across Europe. This video explains: Why U.S. global dominance is weakening faster than expected How China’s long-term strategy outmaneuvered Washington Why NATO unity is fracturing under pressure What this means for Europe, Russia, and the future of global power How the world is moving toward a multipolar order Through the lens of offensive realism, Mearsheimer reveals the uncomfortable truths mainstream media avoids. This is not speculation — this is cold geopolitical reality.

How Putin Just Ended the American Century in 72 Hours I John Mearsheimer Analysis

Awaken America December 16, 2025

In this explosive analysis, I reveal how Putin executed the most devastating 72-hour operation in modern geopolitical history by deploying hypersonic missiles in Venezuela, effectively ending America’s 200-year dominance in the Western Hemisphere. You’ll discover how our own sanctions policy backfired catastrophically, pushing Venezuela directly into Russia’s arms and creating the very crisis we tried to prevent. I break down the shocking intelligence reports showing how this isn’t just about Venezuela—it’s Putin’s blueprint for dismantling NATO’s global defense strategy through his “Encirclement Strategy” targeting Africa and the Arctic next. The psychological impact is already devastating European capitals, with emergency sessions in Paris, Berlin, and London as defense ministers grapple with an impossible choice: accept American decline or risk World War III. By the end of this video, you’ll understand why the Monroe Doctrine died in Venezuelan waters and how Putin just launched the multipolar century using America’s own playbook against us.