“Trump-updated” situation in Ukraine, January 2025

In my article “War in Ukraine close to irreversible turning point” of December 25, 2024, I stated that the turning point is at hand: either the war will end with a great Russian victory reducing Ukraine to land-locked rump state or it will continue and expand into a war between Russia and the NATO. This scenario seems to be more and more probable and the timetable by the beginning of the summer 2025. The US Presidency of Donald Trump will entail its own flavoring.

Loss accounts of AFU, January 2025

Irrecoverable troops losses (killed, badly wounded) of the AFU have exceeded 1 million servicemen and total losses went over 2 million in January 2025.

The Russian Defense Ministry has reported major losses of the Ukrainian army, especially noticeable are the losses of Western weapon systems. Russian Forces are advancing in all regions of the battlefield and frontline.

Russian Defence Ministry reports on the progress of the special military operation (29 January 2025). In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 41,800 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,887 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,510 MLRS combat vehicles, 21,041 field artillery guns and mortars, and 30,878 units of support military vehicles have been neutralized.

Russian Defence Ministry reports on repelling AFU attempt to invade Russian territory in Kursk region (29 January 2025).  Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 55,900 troops, 325 tanks, 239 infantry fighting vehicles, 184 armoured personnel carriers, 1,649 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 103 EW stations, 14 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 32 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, nine armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. The operation to neutralize the AFU units is in progress.

Cold War II❄️ Plans For Dividing Ukraine🌍 Kupiansk Defense Collapse🚨⚔️ Military Summary 2025.01.28 📅

Putin Refused Negotiations with Zelensky🚫🤝Chasiv Yar Is Semi-Encircled 🎯⚔️Military Summary 2025.1.29

Heavy losses, declining recruitment and lower draft age: Ukraine’s mobilization crisis

According to official Ukrainian information, about 100,000 Ukrainian servicemen have deserted their military units and fled so far. The Ukrainian military is getting smaller, as it is losing men at a high rate and is unable to replace them with enough fresh recruits. The only chance Vladimir Zelensky has to postpone the collapse of the frontline is to give in to the West’s demands to lower Ukraine’s mobilization age via constitutional amendment, the Russian Defense Ministry added.

Ukrainian losses: Over the past six months, Ukraine has been losing about 50,000 soldiers per month.

Number of recruits: The number of new recruits in Ukrainian training centers, even taking into account the “activation” of territorial centers of recruitment and social support throughout Ukraine, has barely reached 30,000 people a month for about half a year now. The new recruits in Ukraine are sent to the line of engagement without proper training, only adding to the Ukrainian army’s losses.

Desertion in Ukraine: According to official information, about 100,000 Ukrainian servicemen have deserted their military units and fled.

Mobilization progress: The amendments to the law on lowering the mobilization age from 25 to 18, prepared by the Kiev regime under pressure from Western countries, are the only way for Zelensky to delay the total collapse of the front in Donbass for a few more months.

Trump’s posture

Within the first two days in the office, President Trump has signed a huge list of executive orders. Many of them may have long-term effects but one of the decisions that is certain to have geopolitical consequences is the suspension of all foreign “aid” for 90 days. According to this executive order, the “assistance programs” will be reviewed by Trump’s staff in the next three months, after which final decisions will be made on whether these are in line with his foreign policy framework.

In effect, this means that Trump wants to “give time” to both Russia and the Kiev regime to find common ground on a possible ceasefire.

However, while Moscow has expressed readiness for peace talks, it won’t do so, if this undermines its strategic security in any way. On the contrary, the Russian leadership is adamant that any presence of NATO occupation forces in former Ukraine is unacceptable, while the dismantling of the Kyiv regime and its armed forces stays on the agenda as non-negotiable. Trump’s belief that he could coerce the Kremlin into anything is false and misleading. Now, it appears that Trump, issuing an ultimatum-type proposal to Putin, is making a big mistake.

The US is hushing up Ukrainian Armed Forces losses to improve Kiev’s negotiating position. New York Times “Western intelligence services are reluctant to reveal their internal calculations of Ukraine’s losses, fearing to undermine the position of an ally. US officials say Kyiv is hiding this information even from its closest allies,” the NYT writes. Trump claims that Russia has suffered significantly higher casualties than Ukraine. This assertion is simply not credible, if you look at the current battlefield realities like heavy weapons relation (10:1 for Russia’s favor). That’s why you should be skeptical of people pushing inflated Russian losses.

President Trump should realize that CIA is providing him inaccurate, false intelligence about Russia’s casualties and the condition of its economy. If Trump hopes to realize his goal of opening negotiations with President Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, he must be equipped with the best information available. Now, he has been briefed that Russia has suffered devastating losses and that Russia’s economy is weak and fragile. Data from all open reliable sources paint a diametrically opposite picture.

Russia has congratulated Donald Trump as he takes office as US president on Monday, with President Putin making statements expressing hope for speedy resumption of official contacts between the two countries. The Russian leader made the remarks in a meeting of the country’s National Security Council, suggesting Trump’s return to the White House will help prevent WW3.

Putin said any fresh dialogue must be done on an “equal and mutually respectful basis.”

A week ago, Trump said of Putin, “I know he wants to meet, and I’m going to meet very quickly.” These words came soon on the heels of incoming national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz telling ABC News that “the preparations are underway” for a meeting between Trump and the Russian leader.

As to the war in Ukraine, Moscow sees itself in the driver’s seat – even as Ukraine tries to inflict as much damage as possible through drone and missile strikes on Russian territory. Russian forces have made weeks of rapid gains in the Donetsk. On the other hand, despite hundreds of billions of dollars poured into the corrupt Kiev regime, the state of former Ukraine is far worse than during the troubled 1990s. These funds have been abused by the corrupt oligarchs. Trump is certainly aware of this and has been very vocal about it, criticizing his predecessor and calling the Ukrainian regime’s frontman Volodymyr Zelensky “the greatest salesman in history”.

It should be noted that some of the “military aid” that the troubled Biden administration already sent to the Kiev regime cannot be called back, meaning that Kyiv is unlikely to suffer immediate consequences of Trump’s decision. However, once those funds run out, the Kyiv regime will be faced with serious shortages of many assets that are already in short supply. In fact, it can be argued that the new US administration openly said this in the executive order, as it clearly reads that “no US foreign assistance shall be disbursed in a manner that is not fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President of the United States.

It is again easy to notice that the end is nearing in Ukraine, when the CIA starts “washing the dishes”. The CIA storyline is simple, this was not our fault. Up to date, there are more than a million dead, mostly Ukrainian, as a result of CIA activities, starting with the Maidan of February 2014.

Cold War II❄️Trump Gave The Russians 100 Days⏳Russia Accelerates Its Offensive Again⚔️📈MS 2025.01.22

Trump’s opening initiative to Russia falls flat

Russian president Putin has explained his experience with policy preferences forwarded by US presidents: “I have already spoken to three US Presidents. They come and go but politics stay the same at all times. Do you know why? Because of the powerful bureaucracy. This is what happens with every administration. It took only two days for that to happen with the second presidency of Donald Trump. Instead of seeking better relations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, as he had promised during the campaign, Trump initiated a public dialog with Russia that seems to make both of these aims impossible.

Trump’s brinkmanship, “let’s make a deal or … I put higher taxes, tariffs and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia”, demonstrates his basic ignorance. The biggest valuable product Russia is still selling to the US is the enriched uranium needed to run US nuclear power plants. Trump can tax, tariff and sanction that as much as he likes.

He could also try to sanction other Russian energy exports but those are double-edged measures, they could also backfire on the United States and its allies. Energy Prices: A reduction in Russian energy exports could spike global oil and gas prices, hurting Western consumers. Geopolitical Realignments: Aggressive sanctions might accelerate the creation of parallel financial and trade systems outside of Western control, weakening U.S. influence. Economic Blowback: American industries reliant on certain raw materials from Russia, such as metals for manufacturing, could face higher costs and supply disruptions.

No one in Russia, for certain not Putin, will take such Trump’s attempt to open negotiations seriously. If Trump wants to achieve a peace agreement over Ukraine, he will need to reject this standard American neo-conservative bureaucratic approach and find people, who know what they are talking about. The Kremlin is not impressed by United States President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new sanctions against Russia, if it does not agree to strike a peace deal with Ukraine. “We are waiting for signals that have not yet been received,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added.

Trump’s threats will not work on Russia

Jackson Hinkle interviews Prof. Glenn Diesen

Glenn Diesen, substack, January 29, 2025

Trump’s speech “”Revolution of Common Sense” on WEF Globalists in Davos, January 23

Trump did not disappoint on Thursday, as he delivered virtual address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, before taking questions from people who really hate him. In his speech, Trump said he would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to bring down the cost of oil (Saudi MbS refused to do it). Trump also said he hopes that China can help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

The world was listening closely for any details on his pledge to introduce universal tariffs on goods imported to the US and for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations and America’s economic rivalry with China. Trump has openly criticized the diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives championed by the WEF. He also expressed concerns about NATO’s heavy dependence on the United States, urging member nations to increase their contributions to defense spending.

LIVE: Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos

Associated Press, January 23, 2025

NATO’s “contribution to aiding” Ukraine

I have analyzed a peace process and NATO involvement regarding Ukraine conflict in many articles like From proxy war to direct war in Ukraine, August 8, 2024; Western mania for pan-European war, July 15, 2024; Peace in Ukraine – a multidimensional issue, June 18, 2024; European tragedy: peace is lost – the pursuit of peace is untrendy, January 5, 2024.

Two interesting and accomplished articles by professor Glenn Diesen are available on X-platform:

Sabotage of the Istanbul Peace Agreement, X-platform, January 24, 2025

NATO’s Destruction of Ukraine Under the Guise of “Helping”, X-platform January 31, 2025

Rutte endorses anti-Russian paranoia narratives to justify military spending. NATO’s paranoid narratives against Russia seem to be reaching extremely worrying levels. NATO officials are convinced that they must prepare for war with Moscow, believing that Russia has a plan for territorial expansion towards Western countries. The consequences of this type of mentality could be devastating, since, by thinking in this way, Europe could actually take dangerous military steps that threaten regional security, thus creating the conditions for a conflict.

Mark Rutte, the new NATO secretary general, said in his address to a joint meeting of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee (AFET) and the Security and Defense Subcommittee (SEDE) on 13 January that it is urgent for European countries to expand their defense budgets. He said either European NATO members “drastically” increase their military spending, or their citizens should immediately start “learning Russian” – suggesting that these countries will soon be annexed by Moscow.

Rutte appears to be an even more bellicose, paranoid and aggressive leader than his predecessor, Jens Stoltenberg. This is particularly worrying considering that under Stoltenberg NATO has reached the most dangerous point of tensions with Russia in its history, with the former leader ending his term in a situation close to direct conflict. Instead of reversing the mistakes of his predecessor and de-escalating the global tensions, Rutte is showing even more bellicoseness than Stoltenberg, which means that in the future NATO is likely to take extremely irresponsible actions under his administration – which could lead to direct conflict.

US President Donald Trump is planning significant changes to America’s Europe policy, which could have far-reaching consequences. According to the Italian news agency ANSA, Trump intends to reduce the US military presence in Europe, with plans to withdraw around 20,000 American troops. This information was reportedly shared by a European diplomatic source. Additionally, Trump is seeking financial support from European countries to help cover the costs of maintaining the remaining US forces in the region.

‘20,000 U.S. Troops To Leave Europe’: Trump’s Biggest Military Action Plan Spooks NATO Allies

Times Of India , January 23, 2025

Ukrainian media outlet leaks alleged Trump Plan to end the war

American Newsweek, whose info is based on the Ukrainian news outlet Strana’s article, has published leaked details of President Trump’s alleged plan to end the war in Ukraine in 100 days. Newsweek said it couldn’t verify, if the details were accurate but the plan starts with holding a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in late January or early February, followed by meetings with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February or March.

The leaked plan calls for a ceasefire to be declared by Easter, which falls on April 20. The truce would involve Ukraine withdrawing troops from Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Once the ceasefire comes into effect, a peace conference will begin hammering out the details of a lasting agreement. The plan calls for a deal to be reached by May 9.

Once the details of the agreement are released, Ukraine will be instructed to end martial law and mobilization. That would mean Zelensky could lose power since his presidential term expired in May 2024 and he used martial law as the justification for not holding new elections. The plan would require allowing parties who oppose continuing the war with Russia to run for office.

Some of the proposed ideas under the plan for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal include barring Ukraine from joining NATO, an agreement for Ukraine to join the EU by 2030, and the EU facilitating Ukraine’s construction. Ukraine would also be able to keep its military and continue receiving military aid from the US, which could be a non-starter for Moscow. The proposal would also require Ukraine to cede the territory Russia has captured. Ukraine would have to “refuse military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories” and “officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.”

Zelensky’s office has denied that the peace plan is authentic, although other media reports have said that Trump tasked his envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellog, with ending the war within the first 100 days of the Trump administration. If the plan is legitimate, leaking it could have been an attempt to sabotage it from moving forward.

Russian view: Trump promised peace but no talks are happening yet

A week ago, US President Donald Trump stated that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet to discuss peace in Ukraine “as soon as possible.” However, every day, when journalists ask Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov about negotiations, the answer remains the same: no proposals have been received from Trump.  

According to many prominent Russian commentators, neither in 1 nor in 100 days – there is no such thing as Trump plan for Ukraine. Trump will not be able to resolve Ukraine conflict either in 24 hours or in 100 days.

Donald Trump’s “lightning-fast plan” to achieve peace in Ukraine remains undisclosed. No negotiations are taking place, and there are not even attempts to start them. This suggests that Moscow sees the ball as being in Washington’s court. If Trump promised to end the war in a day or even within 100 days, then he should take action. According to Russian experts, there seems to be six reasons why Trump does not act: 

Trump Lacks a Strong Hand: His claims about Russia’s weakness and heavy Russian losses likely amuse Putin, as they seem to be mere intimidation tactics.  

No Real Funding Plan: A Korean-style truce would require billions of dollars to secure 1,000 km of front lines and deploy tens of thousands of peacekeepers but where’s the money.  

Ukraine’s Leadership Crisis: Moscow insists that Zelensky lacks legitimacy – a major legal hurdle for any peace deal. Holding elections would be costly and complicated and Zelensky is not interested in them but without elections, there’s no legitimate government to negotiate with.  

Bigger Domestic Issues in the US: Trump is focused on battling the liberal “swamp” – from the State Department to the Pentagon. A potential conflict with drug cartels near the US border may soon take priority.  

A Deeply Divided America: The US hegemon is split between liberals and conservatives, who are locked in a fight to the death. Trump’s aggressive stance on Ukraine is weakening the West rather than strengthening it – a major advantage for Russia.  

No Leverage Over Russia: Saudi Arabia refused to lower oil prices, undermining Trump’s plan to pressure Putin economically.  China rejected Trump’s demand to stop buying Russian energy, refusing to push Putin into negotiations. These nations are not weak pawns like Colombia, which could be easily manipulated.

Russia Has Its Own Self-Sufficient Plan. Unlike the US, Russia has multiple peace plans, all based on its own resources and military strength. Russia has proven it can fight a large-scale war and endure sacrifices. Russia can sustain the conflict economically for a long time. Ukraine, in contrast, lacks autonomy —its only resource is soldiers, and even they are running out.  

Trump’s Dilemma, Time is Running Out. Soon, liberals will blame Trump for failing to end the war. Americans may start fearing another “Vietnam-style” war. If Trump doesn’t act, this could be a major political disaster, affecting his re-election chances.  

Pressuring Zelensky as Only Option. The most likely scenario is that Trump will force Zelensky’s hand by conducting an audit of US aid to Ukraine, exposing corruption in the Kyiv regime, delivering an ultimatum: accept Russia’s terms or step down.  

Time is on Russia’s side; Putin is in no hurry.

America’s estimated long-term views

Some interesting statements, ideas and views can be found in the video below, discussion by prof. John Mearsheimer, prof. Glenn Diesen and analyst Alexander Mercouris

What to Expect with the Return of Trump – John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

The Duran, January 19, 2025

An important viewpoint can be found in the article “Unravelling the Mystery of War”, by Israel Shamir, January 18, 2025 in The Unz Review.

“Too many elements of the Ukrainian war do not make sense. The most important issue is the fate of the American dollar. Specifically, it’s about its supremacy in the economic world. That supremacy alone generates an income of up to a trillion dollars a year for the US. And it’s not just about the money. The US military might is tightly related to dollar supreme position.

There’s no way the USA would let the dollar slip to the second or third position among world currencies. If this happens, most of the dollars stored abroad (and there are more than 7 trillion of them) will rush back to USA shores like a tsunami. Inflation would skyrocket, and the standard of living would drop like a stone. The resulting political storm could easily tear the country apart. So, the US would rather see the world go down than tolerate the dollar’s demise. This is especially true under the Trump administration.”

Another interesting viewpoint is the article below:

China’s 100-year Plan in Ukraine

Article by Rich Berdan, Freelance writer, based in Detroit, MI, USA, September 26, 2022; on the website of RIAC (Russian International Affairs Council)

“During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States competed for global supremacy numerous times by waging proxy wars around the world. Today, Russia has been relegated to a secondary power position with China taking the lead in the East to dethrone the US as the reigning world power. Russia’s operation in Ukraine is what can be seen a superpower proxy war between the United States and China.

The crisis in Ukraine is but a small part in China’s 100-year plan to become the world’s ruling superpower. While Russia’s special military operation was never an intended part of the design, China pivoted and capitalized on a gold-plated cloak and dagger snare to further expedite America’s military and economic decline, as well as its ability to exert power in the latter part of China’s blueprint.”