SMO transforming into an open war between the Western Block and Russia

General situation – Big Picture

I have analyzed the war in Ukraine in tens of articles since the start of the crisis (February 24, 2022). Russia has used the name “Special Military Operation” (SMO) and Ukraine has called it “Russian unprovoked offensive or invasion”. The western patrons of Ukraine have used similar names and underlined (at least, thus far) that they are not participants in the war, just providing aid to Ukraine to defend itself.

The western patrons have been consisting of the US, NATO, the EU and in small extent some US allies from Asia & Pacific. But now this picture is changing. The US is trying some way or other to fall more behind, mainly due to coming presidential elections in November. Its role will be more “supportive” (military and financial aid), not so much the front leader. NATO and its desperate-looking Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, tries to act in a confused way here and there, without realizing what to do actually. The fear of Article 5 to materialize, seems to be a question of destiny.

Now it appears that European national leaders together with the EU elite are emerging more and more important players and decision-makers in this whole crisis. At the same time, this reveals the non-capability, non-capacity, non-ability of coherent European decision-makers and first of all, this reveals the complete unpreparedness of Europe to take such responsibilities, which European players are now taking. They have so used to vassals of the US that coming to the frontline seems to be frightened.

On the other hand, the global setting tells that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and partly BRICS and SCO (+ Globa South) are gathering as a worldwide block against the US hegemon and its allies. I have studied this development already many times during last few years. References of previous articles found at the end of this article.

Summary of recent military progress in Ukraine

Losses of AFU in May.

Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) seem to continue “meat grinding mode”, which means slow but firm territorial advance on all frontlines utilizing massively heavy weapons and air strikes. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have not managed to find any means to stop RuAF advance, only slowing. May has caused massive operating losses and casualties to AFU. Average daily troops losses have been up to 1300, totaling about 40,000 servicemen in May. AFU’s equipment and heavy weapons losses in May were: UAVs 1300, tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles 320, field artillery / cannons / mortars 760 units, MLRS 50, units of other special military equipment 760.

Russian air strikes in rear areas, in May.

RuAF carried out 154 group strikes by high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles, which hit Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure facilities, enterprises of the military-industrial complex, missile, ammunition and fuel storage areas, military airfield infrastructure facilities, air defence means, command posts, as well as a production facility for uncrewed boats and unmanned aerial vehicles. Moreover, temporary deployment areas of nationalist groups and foreign mercenaries, clusters of AFU manpower and military hardware have been hit.

On the night of May 26, the Russian military launched massive combined attacks on the Ukrainian military facilities across Ukraine. According to local reports, the targets included military facilities in Ukraine. The first wave of drone strikes targeted western central and southern regions. Russian Geran UAVs destroyed targets in the Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnitsky, Poltava, Cherkasy and Odessa regions.

Cruise missiles launched by a dozen TU-95MS and TU-22M3 missile carriers and MiG-31 with Kinzhal missiles hit targets in the Khmelnitsky, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, Kirovograd, Ivano-Frankivsk and Kiev regions. One of the targets was the Starokonstantinov military airfield near the city of Khmelnitsky, where the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force and Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile carriers were based. The airfield has suffered heavy damage.

According to unconfirmed reports, other targets hit last night could be the Ivano-Frankivsk airfield, where the 114th tactical aviation brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force is based, as well as the Vinnytsia airfield, where the 456th transport brigade is based. The airfield in Vinnytsia previously came under several heavy attacks.

Massive Missile Attack On F-16 Airfield | New Russian Base. Military Summary And Analysis 2024.05.26

The Heat | Putin Appointed The Head Of Ukraine | Large-scale Offensive | Military Summary 2024.05.28

 The Heat | Kharkiv Trap | The HQ Of Western Instructors Was Destroyed | Military Summary 2024.05.29

Another Strike With Kinzhal On The Airfield With F-16 | Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.05.30

Russia seizes Ukrainian arms cache on May 29 in Luhansk; tanks, shells, missiles “lost” in Luhansk. The biggest blow for the Ukrainian Army amid intense fighting in the Luhansk region. Russian troops uncover a Ukrainian arms cache with over 100,000 munitions. The arms cache stored hundreds of artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, and projectiles. The loss of weapons for Ukraine comes at a time when Kyiv is battling an arms shortage.

Again, on the night of May 30 as many times before, the warring sides exchanged massive strikes in each other’s rear regions. The Russian military definitely won this exchange of strikes.

Several groups of Russian kamikaze UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace and revealed the positions of Ukrainian air defense systems. Then, dozen Russian strategic Tu-95MS, as well as MiG-31 with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, took off for the attack. The Russian military launched devastating strikes on Ukrainian airfields due to promised supply F-16 to support the escalation in Ukraine. The Kharkiv region and its capital are pounded by Russian airstrikes non-stop.

While the Ukrainian infrastructure is burning, NATO pushes Kiev to launch strikes on the Russian territory in an attempt to inflict a strategic defeat to Moscow. Last night, Russian forces repelled another massive attack on the Crimean Peninsula. At the same time, more UAVs targeted the Krasnodar region, where the Voronezh-DM radar was recently damaged. All the attacks were coordinated by American and British reconnaissance aircraft that do not stop operations over the Black Sea.

Operative performance on the frontlines

AFU are awaiting another escalation in the upcoming Russian summer campaign. The Russian military continues constant precision strikes in the Ukrainian rear, destroying Ukrainian reserves. The Ukrainian military is forced to urgently redeploy strategic reserves, relying only on NATO assistance. The Ukrainian command is sending more and more reinforcements to the Kharkiv region, diluting its defense in other directions.

Ukrainian defensive operations are headed by butchers who throw more and more units into the meat grinder in Volchansk and Liptsy. Unable to effectively hold its defenses on the extended frontlines, the AFU are rapidly retreating in different directions, including in the Kupyansk, Chasov Yar, Avdeevka and Mariinka areas.

The last hope for Kiev is NATO, which is allowing AFU to hit far inside Russian territory with western weapons and equipping Ukrainian reserve units and prepares to enter the battlefields in the case of approaching Russian breakthrough. Based on different speculations, many analysts believe that RuAF is gathering a group of 300,000 additional Russian soldiers in the northern region of Ukraine to be prepared for massive offensive in the summer.

NATO & EU open involvement, NATO troops arriving in Ukraine

Scott Ritter explains how the missiles given to Ukraine work.

NATO’s Declaration 489

The Parliamentary Assembly of NATO has passed a new declaration urging the alliance’s members to lift some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of their weapons on Russian soil as the Kiev regime continues to lose ground on the battlefield. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told The Economist on May 24 that Western countries should lift their respective bans on Ukraine using their weapons inside Russia. The newspaper alleged that Stoltenberg’s target was US President Joe Biden’s policy of limiting Ukraine’s use of ATACMS long-range missiles and other weapons inside Russia except for Crimea and the nation’s new territories admitted in September 2022.

On May 27, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (PA) – the consultative interparliamentary entity – passed Declaration 489 which urges the bloc’s members to “lift some restrictions” on the use of their weapons by the Kiev regime against Russia’s “legitimate targets.”

French Affair

On May 27, France will send instructors to Ukraine to train the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, reports that he held negotiations with the Minister of the French Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu, as a result of which an agreement was reached to send French instructors to Ukraine to train the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “I welcome the initiative of France to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian military personnel. I have already signed documents that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centers and get acquainted with their infrastructure and personnel”.

Macron wants to create a European coalition to send military instructors to Ukraine, Le Monde quotes its sources as saying. The French president plans several hundred specialists from different countries to train Ukrainian sappers and help Kiev regime form a new motorized rifle brigade, the newspaper said. Consultations on the issue should be accelerated in the coming days so that Macron can make a statement during Zelensky’s visit to France on 6-7 June, the paper said. Previously, Macron argued that Ukraine should attack Russia with Western arms. He also believes that supplying Kiev with long-range weapons does not constitute an escalation of the conflict.

A couple of days after Syrsky “welcomed” French troops to Ukraine, the first losses of the French Foreign Legion in Ukraine were reported in the battles near Chasov Yar and near Kleshcheyevka. Paris officially declares that it did not send servicemen of the Foreign Legion to Ukraine but the Frenchman had chevron of the Second Foreign Parachute Regiment of the French Foreign Legion.

Bloodbath of NATO instructors in Yavorov, May 29, 2024

The Yavoriv training ground is a key center for the deployment of foreign military instructors and mercenaries of the Ukrainian army. It is very close to the Polish border, in Lviv region, so it was used as a hub for large troop movements. In addition, the Yavorov training ground is used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as one of the key logistics hubs for the transfer of weapons, military equipment and ammunition supplied by the West to the eastern regions of the country. The training ground was only recently restored after a similar attack by Kinzahls in March 2022.

Now on May 29, the Russian Air Force carried out a devastating strike with a supersonic Kinzhal missile fired from a MiG-31 fighter jet at the Ukrainian base in Yavorov near Lviv, killing soldiers who had arrived from France, the US, Poland and the Baltic countries. At least 300 people were killed, including personnel from NATO countries. Among them are survivors, who were taken to Poland for medical treatment. The exact number of dead is difficult to determine because many bodies “vaporized”. Russian sources say that the origin and location of the NATO troops were revealed by Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

The latest info about the crushing strike on the Yavorov NATO training camp tells the following:

  • there were up to 410 people in the underground mini-city, including military specialists from Czech, France, the US, Poland, Baltic states
  • 179 killed and 201 seriously injured, all night they were evacuated to Poland and Germany
  • following the destruction of the training center’s infrastructure in March 2022, reconstruction was made and a “Center for International Peace and Security” was created for NATO instructors
  • the base was buried deep underground, consisting of three underground interconnected bunkers
  • underground air force command post, training center and dormitory for 200 people. In the underground facilities, the flight crews of the Ukrainian armed forces were trained and preparations were made for the organization of flights and air maneuvers with online coordination with the NATO control center located in Poland.
  • for many months, no one touched this treasure until NATO began an escalation operation with F-16 deliveries and the creation of a training center and command post.
  • The situation center in the virtual training mode has already practiced coordinating the flight of F-16 fighters
  • in the bunker complex there were instructors from Benelux, mainly from the Netherlands, but also Czech and Spanish specialists who trained Ukrainian personnel. In total, there were between 380 and 410 people in the underground mini-city.

According to a preliminary assessment, all three underground interconnected bunkers were hit by Russian hypersonic missiles. The final losses are still being determined there. The command post for controlling the F-16 and controlling its guidance systems and technical condition was demolished. The West is still hiding information about this event.

Local information sources confirmed: Russian Kinzhal missiles turned bunkers with NATO officers in Ukraine upside down. According to Russian military officials, the NATO officers who died were highly trained specialists from the European Union, including pilots and engineers of American aircraft, as well as senior officers of the alliance. The source noted that the missile strike by the Russian Armed Forces literally “upended” the network of underground bunkers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where NATO experts planning operations against Russia were located.

Ukraine, as the state, is facing economic collapse and the AFU may be left without support due to the government’s decision. Increasing prices for electricity will lead to shutdowns of enterprises and increased unemployment; the Ukrainian state budget is, in a chronic way, based on massive deficit which will not provide sufficient money for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Discords in NATO

The Italian government has rejected NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s plea to lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons deep inside Russian territories. “We will not send a single Italian soldier to Ukraine, and the military equipment that Italy sends should be used on the territory of Ukraine,” Antonio Tajani, deputy minister of Italy, was quoted as saying. He added that Italy “must always work for peace and lower the tone.” Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and leader of the League party, echoed the same sentiment, insisting that no one was seeking a “prelude to World War III.”

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has called on NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg to either correct his words or resign. This is how Salvini reacted to Stoltenberg’s call to allow Ukraine to hit Russian territory with NATO weapons. “I don’t want to leave my children in the third world war at the gates…Stoltenberg should either recant or apologize or resign”

Western powers, who initially supplied Kiev with weapons for defense, now suggest using them to strike deep into Russia. However, the US position on this matter is at least officially ambiguous. In fact, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that Kiev “will have to make its own decisions” about conducting attacks beyond Ukraine’s borders, even as the Biden administration officially prohibits the use of US-supplied weapons such as ATACMS missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory. Is NATO perhaps disintegrating itself?

The US appears to have made the decision to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and increase tensions in the Middle East. On May 30, The Politico reported that the Biden administration has secretly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia using US-provided weapons. One US official told the outlet that Biden had made the decision to allow Ukraine to use such weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv only, noting that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.” The decision will allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, another official said.

The US officials alleged that Ukraine will not be allowed to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the ATACMS, to hit military targets deep inside Russia. They didn’t however explain, how exactly the US will enforce this. In addition to inflaming the conflict in Ukraine, the Biden administration and its allies are increasing tensions in the Middle East. Overall, the Biden administration does not appear to be interested in pursuing any diplomatic solution for the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. This complete abandonment of diplomacy in favor of uncalculated military adventures is pushing the world closer to an all-out war.

Zelensky’s “piss summit” in Switzerland, June 15-16

As I stated in my previous article, the upcoming summit, whether “Piss or Peace”, is going to be a farce. Zelensky is no longer recognized by Russia as a legitimate negotiating partner. Joe Biden is taking a pass in order to raise bucks from the Hollywood glitterati and none of the BRICS nations will attend. US Vice President Kamala Harris is not attending the “peace summit” either (luckily for Z. she does not come there) but maybe Jake Sullivan comes as a representative of the Biden administration.

No wonder, if RuAF will use this meeting as an opportunity to deliver a powerful, embarrassing military strike that will underscore Ukraine’s precarious position.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise appearance at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore attended by defense chiefs from around the world, including US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese defense minister Dong Jun. The visit was aimed at drumming up support from Asian countries. Besides meeting regional leaders, he also urged delegates to attend his summit due to be held later in June.

Zelensky has accused Russia and China of attempting to undermine his upcoming global peace summit in Switzerland. He said Russia was trying to dissuade other states from attending the event, and that China was working to do this as well. Speaking at an Asian security forum, he also said there were “elements of Russia’s weaponry” that come from China. China says it does not side with either side of the Ukraine war, a position that has been increasingly questioned particularly by the US.

Voronezh – strategic early warning radar system

On May 24, the Ukrainian military launched drone strikes on the Voronezh-DM strategic over-the-horizon long-range radar in Armavir in the Krasnodar region. The radar antennas were reportedly damaged. The Voronezh-DM in Armavir partially controls the territory towards the Indian Ocean, Southern and Central Europe, the Mediterranean Sea, North Africa and the Middle East.

This facility has nothing to do with the ongoing military operations in Ukraine. Over-the-horizon long-range radar stations of the Voronezh-type are part of the Missile Attack Warning System aimed to detect the launch of ballistic nuclear missiles. This is an element of Russian strategic security, space defense at great distances. It operates in a range of up to 6,000 km and up to 8,000 km in near space, simultaneously monitoring up to 500 different objects.

On May 26, there was another attack on the Russian missile warning system that ended in failure. An unidentified drone crashed in the Orenburg region. The incident occurred near the city of Orsk, where another Voronezh-M type radar station is located nearby, it controls the sector from the Taklamakan desert to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

It was also revealed that the target of the attack on Crimea on May 23 was the Center for Deep Space Communications, involved in the management of the GLONASS satellite system. The facility located near the city of Alushta was reportedly damaged by 4 US-made ATACMS missiles.

Against this background, it is worth expecting attempts to disable another Russian Voronezh-M type radar station in the Leningrad region. In addition, by the end of 2024, the upgraded Voronezh-type radar station near Sevastopol should be put into operation.

Despite attempts by some European leaders to hide their involvement in the escalation, such attacks are not an independent initiative of Kiev. They were launched by NATO military with NATO missiles, with the reconnaissance support of NATO aircraft. Kiev is but a puppet, fulfilling the orders of the Western warmongers who are eager to inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow. These are not random strikes, but rather, a systematic attempt to weaken the Russian Missile Attack Warning System, which is putting the world on the brink of nuclear war.

These strikes took place after the launch of Russia’s exercises with non-strategic nuclear weapons. NATO moved to a new level of escalation and responded with strikes against the Russian nuclear missile shield.

US SECRET OPERATION AGAINST RUSSIA?

Colonel of the Austrian General Staff Dr. Marcus Reisner explains, why did Washington order Kiev to attack Russia’s early warning radars, which have the sole purpose of warning the Kremlin in time of a sudden insidious US strategic nuclear attack on Russia.

According to Colonel Reisner, attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian early warning radars have no immediate military significance for the Ukrainian army, since these over-the-horizontal early warning radars effectively only detect the flight surface from an altitude of 2000 km to an altitude of 6000 km, i.e. only flight paths US strategic nuclear missiles. The striking on the Russian early warning radars has no military significance for Kyiv, as these radars do not even monitor the flight levels of Ukrainian tactical missiles. Nor do they monitor the flight levels in which Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets may soon operate.

On the contrary, the destruction or damage of these radars creates a potentially explosive situation, because Russia may not see in time a sudden insidious nuclear strike by the US. Now 2 out of 10 Russian early warning radar systems have been damaged and the US gains a strategic advantage over Russia.

According to Colonel Reisner, Washington is now carrying out a war strategy known as “Boiling the Frog” by using Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s strategic warning radars. It is an extremely insidious strategy, which is intended to lull the opponent with gradual steps into the fact that he is not in mortal danger, and then insidiously arrive at him in an instant, without him being able to resist.

Professor Theodore A. Postol is a professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Prior to his work at MIT, he worked at Argonne National Laboratory, the Pentagon, and Stanford University. He stated recently: “I cannot emphasize enough how frightening and dangerous this development is – at least to me, who I think can claim a rather detailed knowledge of the nuclear strike systems of both Russia and United States.”

Stephen Bryen is a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense and is a leading expert in security strategy and technology. He is also very concerned about volatility in the balance of nuclear weapons. The risk level has grown considerably.

Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of Roscosmos State Corporation and now a senator of the Russian Federation Council from the Zaporozhye region, reported in his Telegram channel that the AFU had attacked a facility of the Russian Missile Warning System (MWS) in the Krasnodar region. This is a key element of the Combat Management System of the country’s strategic nuclear forces. “The Kiev regime has committed yet another reckless act that could lead to a serious escalation of the still regional conflict in Europe.” he stated. Despite the attempts of some Western leaders to blame the Ukrainian military for the risky attacks on the Russian Missile Attack Warning System, that are allegedly launched by Kiev itself, it is obvious that NATO warmongers are behind the strikes, which are coordinated by NATO reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, launched by NATO drones and missiles and planned by the NATO military.

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the research programs of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, HSE professor, writes: “Russia should consider the possibility of carrying out a demonstration nuclear explosion as one of the measures to prevent hostilities in Ukraine from turning into a direct conflict with the West”.

Russia has moved 11 nuclear submarines into the Atlantic Ocean in response to US attacks on strategic radar systems.

Russia aggregating allies

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is ready to strengthen strategic ties with the Russian armed forces and work with them to defend international justice. This was stated at a briefing by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the People’s Republic of China Wu Qian.

“China’s armed forces are willing to work together with the Russian military to fully implement the important consensus reached by the heads of the two states to further strengthen strategic communications and coordination, deepen mutual trust in the military field and jointly implement the Global Security Initiative,” he said.

According to a representative of the Chinese military department, PLA military personnel are ready, together with their Russian colleagues, to “defend international justice and impartiality”, and also make every effort to ensure international and regional security.

Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat, founder and director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum, has recently wrote an article “The brink of dissolution: Neurosis in the West as the levee breaks “, May 27, 2024 in Stretegic Culture online media. Very advisable article, regarding China & Russia partnership versus the West.

While the West is escalating the combined efforts and strikes deep in the Russian territory, Russia has not stayed idle just waiting for next western moves but has organized numerous “counter-operations”. Military-technical and production cooperation with Iran and North Korea has been known already for over a year.

Now cooperation also with CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan; observers: Serbia, Afghanistan)) and Afghanistan has entered the picture. It appears that Russian and Afghan authorities are negotiating on recruitment of Afghan soldiers for supporting RuAF in Ukraine war and the number of Afghan recruits may amount up to 100,000 fighters.

The Heat | CSTO Enters The Game | Afghan Recruiting Traffic. Military Summary And Analysis 2024.5.31

Massive Missile Strike On Energy Facilities | China Hs Made Its Choice | Military Summary 2024.06.01

Assessments of warfare by some well-known top experts

Scott Ritter: Ukraine’s Army is being DECIMATED as Russia Prepares Finishing Blow to NATO

Interviewed by Danny Haiphong , May 26, 2024

Russia Braces for Worst-Case Scenario Amid NATO’s Growing Desperation | Andrei Martyanov

Dialogue Works , May 31, 2024, Andrey Martyanov interviewed by Nima R Alkhorshid

Nato-General Harald Kujat: ”Der Ukraine-Krieg könnte zur Urkatastrophe des 21. Jahrhunderts werden” – YouTube video, June 3, 2024

Epilogue

Two things seem to be quite likely today:

  • the west has officially lost the war via proxy (Ukraine) and is now “forced” to strike deep in the Russian territory as well as send “boots on the ground”
  • NATO is planning a large-scale deployment of American combat troops to the frontline in order to fight Russia together with local European troops in three focal directions:
    • North Europe: Norway – Sweden – Finland
    • Mid Europe: Germany – Poland & Baltic – Ukraine
    • South Europe: Greece & Turkey – Romania – Ukraine

I have analyzed the possible scenarios of the war in my article “Scenarios for the outcome of Ukraine crisis 2024-2025”, April 1, 2024.

References of previous articles

Alliance formation among great powers , February 6, 2022

Russia and China Joint Statement, February 4, 2022

Following a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the Kremlin published the English text of a joint statement agreed by both sides, calling for dialogue in an effort to reduce tensions. Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development, February 4, 2022, Beijing, China http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770 In this article, there is a wrap-up study and analysis of the present status regarding China – Russia cooperative relations, both in theoretical and practical framework.

World order and polarity transforming 2022, February 28

Time of Great Chaos

Now that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is going, many are anticipating that it could be just a matter of time before China invades Taiwan. An attempt by Beijing to claim Taiwan by force has just become more likely and if China invades Taiwan, North Korea may decide that is a great moment to launch an invasion of South Korea. What may Iran’s present rulers ponder in this situation? It would be so easy for the dominoes to start falling. The existing world order is starting to come apart and a Time of Great Chaos is directly ahead of us.

Cyclical transformation turning into doomsday, March 21, 2022

Closing words

The whole world is in accelerating transformation process, which seems to be cyclical and is now turning into doomsday direction. 2020s will be the Time of Great Chaos until the dust settles down at some point later in this decade. If the humankind avoids Nuclear Armageddon and wages “just economic wars”, still the future outlook is very unlike compared with today’s situation. The status and position of the Western camp will be fallen down significantly. The US will be reduced, highly likely, as a middle-size power with heavy-indebted, dwarfed economy and robustly castrated military machine. Europe has run itself in the marginal by the sanctions policy and its insane energy policy, which has destructed the whole industrial backbone of Europe, making it as a kind of “outdoor museum”. In addition, Germany’s re-militarization will give rise to enlarging suspicions and discord inside the EU. Australia is living in containment in the Pacific. No doubt, this century will belong to Asia and will be led by the great power China supervising the Eastern camp.

New World Order in the making, April 2, 2022

Now, it is clear that Fukuyama’s end of history lasted 20 years and ended by Putin’s prophetic speech in Munich 2007, which started an era of turbulence and slow transformation process accelerating and culminating in 2022 Ukraine crisis. Huntington’s clash of civilizations did not take place either as such but something much bigger is now emerging, a clash of “world camps”. The humanity seems to be divided in two camps, the Western camp (the US, Canada, Europe, Australia) and the Eastern camp led by China and Russia and covering majority of Asia, Africa and South America. The new world order is now slowly but surely emerging from complex and diverse processes worldwide. In the context of great power relations, turbulent times are going on, also on the economic scene. Multipolar world based on BRICS-format, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov just visited China and India confirming the base of new world order, the multipolar world based on BRICS-format.

Great power relations in the context of the third BRI Forum, October 22, 2023

Two-front confrontations – US preparing for a two-front China and Russia war

In the midst of international crisis and growing tension, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US released, late October 2023, a report urging the country to be prepared for a two-front conflict against China and Russia. This took place parallel with BRI Forum in Beijing.A recent US Congress report urges a strategic defensive posture review of simultaneous near-peer conventional and nuclear threats. The report says that US defense strategy and strategic posture must change to properly defend its vital interests and improve strategic stability with the two nuclear-armed adversaries while advocating that critical decisions should be made now to address nuclear threats expected to arise during the 2027-2035 timeframe.

Professor Michael Brenner, the University of Pittsburgh, has recently made an article “America declares war”, where he writes: “American foreign policy has set the country on a course destined to lead to a world of rivalry, strife, and conflict in the foreseeable future. The United States has declared ‘war’ on China, on Russia, on whomever partners with them. That ‘war’ is comprehensive – diplomatic, financial, commercial, technological, cultural, ideological. It implicitly fuses a presumed great power rivalry for dominance with a clash of civilizations: the American-led West against the civilizational states of China, Russia, and potentially India.”