June 10, 2023 | Seppo Niemi

Slippery path to collapse – the end is near now

This article is a short, “breaking news” type retrospective of what happened in Ukrainian war, although the war is still going and more AFU offensives are coming.

It is worth recalling a brief look at April-May data

AFU losses in April 2023: troop losses 15,000; 12 aircraft and helicopters; 288 UAVs; 16 air defense systems; 440 tanks and armoured vehicles; 20 MLRS; 234 artillery pieces; nearly 50 ammo and other depots

AFU losses in May 2023: another Patriot air defense system destroyed in Kiev; over 16 thousand servicemen, 16 aircraft, five helicopters, 466 UAVs and more than 400 tanks and armoured vehicles; Russian Forces intercepted 29 Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, 196 HIMARS rockets, 16 HARM missiles. “Western curators” demand from Kiev to launch a counteroffensive, despite the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russian Forces are tracking the ways of supply of Western weapons to Ukraine and are striking at them; Large Western arms depots in Khmelnitsky, Ternopol, and Mykolaiv were destroyed in recent days, together nearly 80 depots destroyed in May.

AFU lost Bakhmut on 20^th May 2023

The city of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) in the Donetsk region was completely taken over by Russian troops, on May 20, 2023. “Bakhmut has fallen – Artyomovsk is rising”. This was announced by the founder of PMC “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin, who gave the details of what happened in the Donbass in a video message. The operation to capture Bakhmut, the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder”, lasted 224 days. It began on October 8, 2022.

AFU Counteroffensive, from June 4 on

I analyzed the start of the AFU counteroffensive in my previous article of June 6 and here is the wrap-up:

June 4-6, the losses of three day’s operation were massive to AFU: about 3700 soldiers, destroyed tanks 52 from which 8 German Leopard tanks, 3 French AMX-10 vehicles, 207 armored vehicles, 134 motor vehicles, 5 aircraft, 2 helicopters, 48 pieces of artillery and 53 UAVs. No AFU breakthrough in any part of the frontline.

Assessing the current situation, June 7-10, the big picture seems to be quite clear, AFU is taking massive, even fatal losses and the final defeat is closing. Troop losses exceed 6,000 – three well-trained, NATO equipped elite brigades – and hundreds of equipment units (tanks, IFVs, artillery pieces etc. including tens of Leopards and Bradleys), daily troop losses being well over 1,000 soldiers. AFU is on the slippery slope falling into abyss.

No army in the world can withstand such losses. Now, even the US recognizes the hopeless situation of AFU.