September 16, 2025 | Seppo Niemi

Russian drones in Poland – Russian test or false flag by Ukraine?

What happened?

Wednesday, Sep 10, 2025 NATO scrambles jets as Russian drones allegedly enter Poland’s airspace overnight. Sky News was citing Ukraine’s air force to say that Russian drones have entered the airspace of Poland, threatening the city of Zamosc – which lies some 70km from the Ukrainian border. Some initial sources are citing a ‘wave’ of drones but this remains unclear.

Reuters released that:

Poland placed its air defenses on the highest state of readiness after Ukraine’s air force warned that Russian drones had crossed into Polish airspace, according to early reports. The Polish Armed Forces said early Wednesday local time that all necessary procedures were activated to secure national airspace as Russia carried out large-scale overnight strikes on Ukraine. “Polish and allied aircraft are operating in our airspace, and ground-based air defense and radar systems have reached the highest level of readiness,” the Operational Command said. It described the measures as preventive and aimed at protecting citizens in regions bordering Ukraine.

However, the initial Polish military statement itself did not specify a Russian breach of Poland’s airspace.

The Polish Ministry of Defense announced, September 10, that 19 flying objects entered its airspace during a massive Russian airstrike against Ukraine in the early hours of September 10, and that it downed those posing a threat with the support of allied military aircraft.

If confirmed to be Russian, it would be the first time a NATO member nation has fired on Russian military assets. Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that four of the 19 drones were shot down, without specifying their model or nationality. One drone reportedly crashed in central Poland, near the village of Mniszków, and another near the village of Chusnovka in the Lublin region, both after running out of fuel. Debris from other Gerbera drones shot down by Dutch F-35s and Polish F-16s was found in the villages of Chesniki and Wyryki-Wola.

The other drones were reportedly lost from radar, according to the Warsaw Ministry of Defense, while NATO sources claim that Patriot radar detected the drones but did not deploy missiles to shoot them down, given the relative threat posed by drones and the high cost of Patriot missiles. Seven drones and parts of a missile were found in the eastern part of the country.

According to the source, the nighttime operation involved Polish F-16 fighters, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS surveillance aircraft, and air-to-air refueling aircraft operated jointly by NATO. During the incident, the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command urged residents to stay home, with three eastern regions particularly at risk. Several Polish airports were temporarily closed, including Rzeszow.

Assessments

According to Ukrainian sources, at least some of the drones deployed were Gerberas without cameras, used as decoys for enemy air defense systems. This time, however, the circumstances are different, not only in terms of the number of drones involved but also because some of them were shot down by aircraft from a NATO member nation, for the first time.

A NATO spokesperson said the alliance is consulting closely with Poland, while an alliance source revealed that NATO is not treating the incident as an attack, but as a deliberate incursion. Assessments regarding the drone incident in Poland lends itself to at least three hypotheses.

Hypothesis 1 – Russia’s testing

It could have been a Russian provocation aimed at testing political and social reactions in Poland, among NATO allies and in the United States, as well as identifying and evaluating the reaction of Polish and allied air defenses deployed in Poland, especially around the Rzeszow base.

This hypothesis may be right, if the recovered Russian drones were equipped with Polish SIM cards (used in the aircraft’s modem to connect to the local mobile internet for browsing and sending images and data), and that this could indicate Russian preparations to test attack corridors into Poland and Lithuania. This finding, if confirmed, could indicate that the Russians have violated Polish airspace purposefully. So far, no such confirmation.

Hypothesis 2 – derail of drones by EW

A second hypothesis, supported by the Belarusians, is that the incident was caused by Ukrainian C/UAS (anti-drone) electronic systems that confused the guidance systems of a swarm of drones, causing them to derail and then fly over Belarus, Poland and possibly Lithuania. As we have seen, similar situations have occurred in the past, but in previous cases, the diverted drones were not as numerous.

This version is put forward by Russia and Belarus. They suggest that the drones accidentally deviated from their course due to the impact of Electronic Warfare (EW) systems.

The Russian Ministry of Defense categorically denies any intentionality of the incident, stating that “targets for engagement on Polish territory were not planned.” The department emphasizes that the maximum flight range of the UAVs used does not exceed 700 km, making their targeted flight deep into Polish territory physically impossible.

Belarus stated that its air defense forces tracked drones that had “lost course as a result of electronic warfare measures by the parties.” Minsk also claims it had warned Poland and Lithuania in advance about the approach of ‘unknown aircraft.

In March 2022, an old Ukrainian TU-141 long-range drone, likely disrupted by Russian electronic countermeasures, crashed in Croatia, near Zagreb, after being launched from the Odessa region and flying off-course over southern Ukraine and Hungary.

Retired US Colonel Mark Cancian “It’s unlikely they were sent to Poland intentionally, given their limited autonomy. Nineteen is a lot, but they could have been launched by the same unit, which made a similar mistake in all its launches. I don’t see what advantage Russia could gain by intentionally baiting NATO at a time when it wants Europe to remain passive.

Hypothesis 3 – false flag operation by Kiev

According to this version, the incident could have been orchestrated and used by the “war party” in the West to derail potential peace agreements between the US and Russia. A false flag operation by Kiev or together with Warsaw cannot currently be ruled out. The Ukrainian army perhaps recovered (fixed up) several Gerberas, shot down by Ukrainian electronic countermeasures in recent months, and sent them to Poland from Ukrainian territory, in order to heighten tensions with Moscow and raise awareness among NATO allies for mobilization against the Russian threat. It is worth remembering that the Ukrainians and Poles are considered the main perpetrators of the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022, an attack that for many weeks in Europe was blamed on the Russians.

Another version suggests that the incident could have been orchestrated by pro-war factions in the West in coordination with the Kyiv regime to create a media frenzy to divert attention from internal crises in Europe, such as mass protests in France, economic difficulties, and the rise in popularity of right-wing populists. Creating the image of an external enemy is a proven way to consolidate society and shift focus from internal problems to external threats.

Despite harsh rhetorical statements, the Alliance has so far avoided qualifying the event as an attack, indicating a desire to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.

The key factor determining further developments will be the position of the United States and personally President Donald Trump. If Washington, under pressure from “hawks,” accepts the version of a deliberate provocation, it could lead to a new round of sanctions and increased military support for Ukraine.

More assessments

Politico put the following headlines: Putin tests NATO with drone assault on Poland. EU foreign policy chief says drone incursion appeared deliberate, and NATO says it is consulting “closely” with Poland.

Poland said it scrambled fighter jets and shot down Russian drones in the early hours of Wednesday in what looks like an escalatory move by Russia to test NATO’s defenses. Poland said the incursion involved a “dozen or so” drones, some of which it deemed could have posed “a threat.”

“There is no doubt that this provocation is incomparably more dangerous from Poland’s point of view than any previous ones,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, also noting his government had formally requested to invoke NATO’s Article 4 to convene the military alliance’s members for urgent talks, when a member fears its security is at risk.

Poland and Belarus cooperated and exchanged information about drones that went off course, due to electronic warfare, into their territory! Official statement from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense regarding the air defense operations last night: “During the nighttime mutual exchange of strikes with unmanned aerial vehicles between Russia and Ukraine, the duty forces and air defense means of the Republic of Belarus continuously tracked drones that lost their course due to the electronic warfare measures of the parties. Some of the lost drones were destroyed by the air defense forces of our country over the territory of the republic. Through existing channels of interaction, our duty forces and means exchanged information about the air and radar situation with the duty forces and means of Poland and Lithuania.

DRONES DRIFTED OFF COURSE DUE TO ELECTRONIC WARFARE.

The Polish Foreign Minister confirmed that Belarus had notified Warsaw at night about approaching drones. Belarus had stated that Russian drones had been diverted from their route by Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. The Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, General Wiesław Kukuła, announced that the Belarusian side warned Poland about drones approaching its territory.

Based on preliminary data, apparently, all that hit Poland was a “Gerbera” multi-purpose drone, which is a cheap copy of the larger Geran-2 but without explosives used as decoys and sometimes recon. Landing in Poland could either indicate Ukrainian EW or the Russian MoD carried out intentional surveillance of weapons going into Ukraine through Poland. No traces of explosives were found on drone fragments found in eastern and southeastern Poland, the regional prosecutor’s office said.

Some Ukrainian sources: The “Russian” drones shot down over Poland were launched from Ukraine as a provocation attempt. This was a SBU operation directly signed off by Zelensky’s office.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukrainian military and industrial facilities in western Ukraine overnight. No targets in Poland were planned. The range of the drones that allegedly crossed the border with Poland does not exceed 700 kilometers. Nevertheless, the Russian Defense Ministry said it is ready to consult with Poland on this matter.

Mikael Valtersson, a known Swedish military analyst, assessment is that it wasn’t an incursion on purpose, but a result of EW on drones flying close to the border of Poland. This statement from Belarus gives credit to this suspicion. It would have been a very bad strategic decision from Russia to send a number of drones into Poland to test NATO responses, especially now when Russia and Ukraine/Europe both tries to get Trump to get closer to their position on how to end the Russo-Ukrainian war.

According to Mats Nilsson, a known Swedish commentator, the drone in the photo with the serial number on the tail was never equipped with a warhead. This device was launched as a decoy to overload Ukrainian air defenses in late spring of this year, and its further fate was unknown until today.

Apparently, the device was not hit by air defense systems and fell into Ukrainian hands with minimal damage, after which it was delivered to Poland and carefully arranged for a photo shoot, as there is not the slightest trace of a fall/”landing” of the UAV in the photo.

Two facts are not taken into account in this whole spectacle: 1. Gerbera does not have such a flight range to be in this Polish area. 2. The Gerbera in the photo is not a means of attack, and during the elimination of military facilities in Ukraine, it serves as a decoy and distraction for Ukrainian monitoring groups; using it as a means of attack on targets in Poland is absolutely pointless.

The flight range of the Russian decoy drone “Gerbera” is up to 300 km without a combat load, although a range of 600 km is mentioned for one of the variants. About 800 km from Russia to Poland. The drone is designed to imitate the signatures of other UAVs and cruise missiles to overload enemy air defense systems. It is equipped with a 4G modem for real-time video transmission and can use Ukrainian mobile networks for long-distance communication.

Main characteristics of Gerbera. Purpose: Decoy drones to imitate other targets and overload enemy air defense. Body material: Foam plastic and plywood. Flight range: Up to 300 km without a combat load. Equipment: 4G modem for communication and video transmission. Air defense overload: “Gerbera” is used to create false targets. Role in attacks: Can be used in group attacks together with “Geran-2/3” drones or cruise missiles to complicate their breakthrough. Reconnaissance: Capable of performing long reconnaissance missions and monitoring enemy objects.

The strangest thing about the “Russian attack” on Poland is that all the drones were without explosives and that they travelled over 1200 km, even though they have a range of max 700 km.

Poland’s stance

Polish media rushed to interview witnesses who heard drones being shot down after flying into Poland. Majority of the Polish people share the opinion that it was Ukraine that sent those drones.

Polish media rushed to interview witnesses

Even more severe event took place on September 15, when Foreign Minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorsky, visited Kyiv and met President Zelensky.

Sikorsky asked Zelensky to stop talking about “security guaranties” and concentrate on practical issues like financing the Ukrainian warfare. Moreover, he put it directly, and accused Ukraine of sending drones in order to draw NATO and EU into war with Russia. Sikorsky said that Poland is not willing to fight with Russia and they have no volunteers to do so. Finally, he warned Zelensky not to send any more drones to Poland.

Security Guarantees Evaporated at The First Threat💨⚠️Olhivske Has Fallen⚔️Military Summary 2025.9.15

The US stance

US wants to gather more data about incident in Poland before drawing conclusions. There’s no doubt that those drones were intentionally launched, the question is whether the drones were targeted to go into Poland, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted, September 14. Washington wants to receive more information about the drone incident in Poland and consult with its allies before drawing any conclusions. He also described the drone incident in Poland as dangerous and unacceptable.

On the other hand, President Trump’s frustration on Ukrainian war comes out in his latest statement.

Russia’s stance

The Russian Ministry of Defense issued an official statement, which is here below:

The Armed Forces carried out a massive strike with long-range, high-precision ground, naval, and air weapons on strategic targets across Ukraine. The attacks targeted the Ukrainian defense industry in the Ivano-Frankovsk region, Khmelnitsky, Zhytomyr, and Lvov. These facilities produced and repaired armored and aviation vehicles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, engines and electronic components, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles.

On the outskirts of the city of Lvov, near the Polish border, the Armed Forces delivered strikes to the Lvov Armored Plant and the State Aviation Repair Plant, which produced long-range unmanned aerial vehicles and repaired jets and armored vehicles. The attack objectives were achieved. All assigned targets were engaged.

There were no intentions to engage any targets on Polish territory. The maximum range of the UAVs, which presumably crossed the border into Poland, does not exceed 700 kilometers.

Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that European Union and NATO accusations of alleged provocations by Russia are nothing new. He said the Kremlin had not received any requests from Poland for contacts.

The Russian Foreign Ministry is ready to join the Defense Ministry’s proposal for contacts with Poland. The Foreign Ministry said the facts cited by the Defense Ministry have dispelled Polish narratives about the alleged deliberate violation of the republic’s airspace by Russian drones, which were spread by Warsaw to further escalate the Ukrainian crisis. The Russian Defense Ministry is ready to hold consultations with its Polish counterparts ‘on this matter,’ the military agency said.

Andrey Ordash, Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Poland, called the accusations leveled against Moscow “unfounded,” stating that Poland had provided no evidence that the downed drones were of Russian origin.

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs both denied this was a deliberate Russian incursion into Poland because the alleged drones, if launched from Russian controlled territory in the Donbas, had a limited range of 750 km and the Polish border, which was more than 1,000 km from the Donbas, did not have the capability of flying that far.

Europe’s and the EU’s stance

In Europe, the incident is being used to demand greater US sanctions against Moscow and as a demonstration of Russia’s willingness to escalate the conflict.

Zelensky said that “more and more evidence indicates that the movement and direction of the attack are not random. Previously, there had been isolated incidents in which drones had crossed the border and traveled a short distance on neighboring territory, but now we are recording a greater scale and purpose significantly higher.”

Certainly, the Kiev government has every interest in trying to drag NATO into the conflict, but even in Berlin, the assessments seem to leave no room for doubt.

The Russian drones that violated Polish airspace were “clearly headed on this rout”, said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte condemned Moscow, warning Russian leader Putin that the transatlantic military alliance was “ready” for further incursions. Rutte also said that a “full assessment” is underway, but whether this incursion was “intentional or not, it is absolutely irresponsible and dangerous.”

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said it was “the most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began, and indications suggest it was intentional, not accidental.”

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said it was “clear that Putin is not interested in peace, is not interested in a ceasefire. He is provoking us, he is mocking us, and the only reaction can be that we support Ukraine even more and to try to cripple Russian economy as hard as possible.”

This episode fits perfectly with the war hysteria prevailing in Europe.

“Coalition of willing” discusses and plans giving Ukraine “security guarantees” in the European context, whatever it may be.

Poland will not send its military to Ukraine even after the end of hostilities there, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters after the meeting of the heads of state and government of the Coalition of the Willing. French President Emmanuel Macron said at the meeting that 26 countries had confirmed their readiness to send a military contingent to Ukraine after the establishment of a truce or peace. “Poland, as we have repeatedly stressed, has no plans to send soldiers to Ukraine, including after the end of the war. We are responsible for the logistics,” Tusk said.

Recently, the French Ministry of Health asked hospitals in a letter sent to regional health agencies to prepare for a “major engagement” by March 2026 that could see between 10,000 and 50,000 men treated over a period of 10 to 180 days. “In the current international context, it is necessary to anticipate the modalities of health support in situations of high-intensity conflict,” the Ministry of Health reportedly wrote in the document. This follows his plans to send a 20-page ‘survival manual’ to every household.

Similar preparations have been organized and carried out at least in Germany, the UK, Poland and all Baltic states, among others.

More practical evidence of “Drone Attack”

Nice coincidences, Ukraine has downed 100s of Gerbera drones, easy job to re-assemble those and use again; notice the timing of vd Layen speech and this episode.

Please, notice the tape around of the drone the front part, absolutely NOT from the Russian drone factory.

Notice also “the setup” of the photo, so nicely “landed” on the roof of a Polish chicken coop!

The house in Poland that was allegedly damaged by the Russian drone, was damaged by a storm two months ago. Local people have written this truth in the local newspaper.