Opening Pandora’s Box, military assessments of the US Coalition

The US Operation “Epic Fury” is turning out to be “Epic Fail”. As I estimated this American operation is and has been a Big Failure from the very beginning. It is a classical example of the case, where the adversary / enemy has been completely underestimated and misinterpreted and own assets have been overestimated.

I started commenting this case in my latest article Pandora’s Box has been opened – Operation “Epic Fury” of March 9, 2026, and now l continues analyzing some interesting topics:  warfare technics, tactics and strategies of both parties as well as impacts on economies, energy, water management and their worldwide ramifications.

The whole essence of the Iran war can be summed up in the following statement:

The US Coalition: warfare technics, tactics and strategies

Air defense and air strikes, Israel and the US

While the US and Israeli key strategy was based on massive punishing blows by air force, Iran continues to successfully attack US military and intelligence targets in the Persian Gulf countries and is pummeling Israel.

Many well-known commentators and analysts stated already in the start of this war that the US simply can’t produce enough air defense munitions to keep up with Iran’s domestic production. The Ukraine war has also depleted existing stores. Within 1-2 weeks, everything changes as US coalition’s munitions run out, as it right now seems to be true.

Now, after two weeks from the start of the war, it is clear why Israeli Air Defense can no longer predict the Iranian strikes. The June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” was a watershed moment that exposed the fatal vulnerability of GPS-reliant systems to Western electronic warfare. By pivoting to China’s BeiDou-3 (BDS-3), Iran has dismantled Israel’s traditional aerial strategy. The BeiDou-3 seems to revolutionize sky-operations over Israel being unjammable and unstoppable.

1. Hardened Signal Resilience

Unlike the civilian-grade GPS signals that were paralyzed in 2025, BDS-3’s military-tier B3A signal is essentially unjammable. It utilizes complex frequency hopping and Navigation Message Authentication (NMA), which prevents “spoofing.” Israeli jammers can no longer trick drones into false coordinates; the BDS-3 hardware simply rejects the interference, maintaining a 98% positioning success rate.

2. Surgical Accuracy

BDS-3 provides a triple-frequency architecture as standard. This allows Iranian missiles to eliminate ionospheric errors in real-time, achieving a Circular Error Probability (CEP) of under 5 meters. This transforms Iranian “area-saturation” tactics into surgical strike capabilities against hardened Israeli command nodes.

3. The “2,000 km Switch”

The most disruptive feature is the Short Message Communication (SMC). BDS-3 is not just a beacon; it is a two-way tactical data link. This allows Iranian commanders to communicate with weapons 2,000 km away in mid-flight.

• Tactical Re-tasking: If Chinese spy satellites detect a Patriot battery or an F-15E lock, a 560-bit “instruction packet” is sent via satellite to the drone.
• Logic Activation: The drone instantly activates a pre-programmed avoidance logic—switching from a standard flight path to unpredictable high-G maneuvers or sea-skimming profiles.

By combining Chinese “Eyes” (satellite intelligence) to the Iranian missile strikes, Tehran has established a resilient, intelligent kill chain that bypasses Western technological leverage nearly entirely. The US and Israel are still fighting a 1990 Desert Storm warfare – Iran is fighting the 21st Century warfare with space surveillance and intelligent capabilities build into every weapon.

During the first war week, the number of damaged American radars has unexpectedly increased. Evidence has surfaced online of the destruction of two more AN-TPY-2 radars from the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system: one near Abu Dhabi, the other from the Jordanian Muwafaq Salti airbase. The total losses in radars alone exceeded $3.5 billion. This doesn’t include damaged launch pads and other infrastructure. In terms of intelligence gathering, the damage is also significant: it’s possible to cover the lost areas with an airborne component during the operation in Iran, even without much effort.

Iranian drone strikes have damaged several key US early-warning radar sites across the Gulf, exposing vulnerabilities in Washington’s regional missile defense network.

If the strikes against US missile-defense radar systems continue successful, the effectiveness of Washington’s regional missile shield could be significantly degraded, increasing the likelihood of Iranian missiles penetrating defenses and reaching their targets.

The real damage is being done to US military bases/installations in the region. The following US military bases/installations in the Persian Gulf have been confirmed or reported as attacked/hit since February 28, based on US military statements, satellite imagery analyses, media reports and official confirmations from host nations.

• Naval Support Activity Bahrain / U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet Headquarters (Manama, Bahrain) — Targeted multiple times with missiles and drones. Damage included destruction of several structures, radar domes, satellite communications terminals, and warehouses. Bahrain confirmed attacks on the base, with explosions and smoke reported.

• Al Udeid Air Base (near Doha, Qatar) — The largest US military facility in the Middle East. Hit by Iranian missiles (at least one confirmed impact, with others intercepted). Qatar reported interceptions of dozens of missiles/drones targeting the base, with minor damage in some cases.
• Ali Al Salem Air Base (Kuwait) — Struck by ballistic missiles and drones. Satellite imagery showed damage to buildings and structures. Kuwait confirmed interceptions and hits; part of multiple strikes across Kuwaiti sites hosting US troops.
• Camp Arifjan (Kuwait) — Attacked with drones/missiles, resulting in US casualties (at least three service members killed and several wounded in one incident). Low-resolution imagery indicated damage.
• Camp Buehring (Kuwait) — Reported hits/damage from projectiles, per satellite analysis and US reports.
• Al Dhafra Air Base (Abu Dhabi, UAE) — Targeted with missiles/drones. Satellite imagery showed damage to buildings (at least three–four structures hit between February 28 and March 1).
• Prince Sultan Air Base (Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia) — Bombarded by Iranian ballistic missiles. Saudi defenses intercepted many, but reports confirmed attacks on the base (roughly 40 miles from Riyadh).
• Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan was heavily damaged or destroyed during Iran’s retaliatory strikes. The radar in question is an AN/TPY-2 a high-resolution X-band phased-array radar used with the THAAD missile battery. This radar is designed for detecting, tracking, and discriminating ballistic missiles (including in terminal phase) and is one of the most sophisticated US forward-deployed missile defense sensors.

The damage that is being inflicted is far greater and more severe than the Pentagon is reporting. The most damaging result of the Iranian attacks has been the destruction of critical radar systems that are supposed to provide an early warning of Iranian missile launches.

Iran’s destruction of the AN/TPY-2 and the AN/FPS-132 radars has eliminated the early warning capability of the US military in the region. Prior to their destruction, Israel and the US would have a 15 to 30 minute warning when a missile was launched from Iran and could, in theory, take counter measures and prepare their air defense systems. Videos from Israel during the last two days show that 90% of Iranian missiles are hitting their targets without being intercepted.

The USAF has now massed no fewer than 14 heavy strategic bombers in England (RAF Fairford): 11 B-1Bs and 3 B-52s. Contrary to widespread rumors, there is ZERO evidence that any US heavy bombers have penetrated Iranian airspace. All bomber missions so far have consisted of cruise missile launches from stand-off positions. If all the bombers currently massed in the UK were to load up with cruise missiles for a massive strike against Iran, they would be able to carry up to 324 JASSMs in aggregate.

Battle for Iran’s Skies Since the start of the conflict, the IRGC has reported intercepting several American and Israeli drones. At least 15 UAVs have been neutralized so far. Ten were Israeli, the rest American. The main type was the Hermes 900 tactical drone produced by Israel’s Elbit Systems. The US also lost several MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance-strike drones, the same type previously shot down by the Yemeni Houthis. The highest number of interceptions was recorded in Lorestan province. The peak occurred on March 2-5, when up to three drones were reportedly intercepted in a single day. The US has acknowledged the loss of 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones during recent operations. Each drone is valued at $35–50 million, highlighting the significant material losses in the ongoing conflict.

The AWACS are not enough to provide situational awareness to defend against Iranian drones and missiles. The F-35 has been useless as mini-AWACS, its sensor/shooter-concept was a dud. As a result, the US is asking Australia to deploy their E-7s to the Gulf Region. THAAD radars, Patriot batteries destroyed and depleted so much, the US had to redeploy air defense systems from South Korea. The New York Times has identified at least 17 damaged US sites and other installations, several of which have been struck more than once since the war began.

US-Israel Coalition Strikes on Iran Drop Sharply: Combined Daily Volume Down 55-65%. Official data indicate a significant reduction in the daily volume of American and Israeli airstrikes against Iran following the initial days of the operation launched on February 28, 2026.

According to the ISW report of March 5, 2026, the campaign entered a second phase following the initial suppression of Iranian air defenses and command. This suppression did not occur fully as planned, as Iran continues to operate air defenses in certain areas and the command structure has been decentralized. The US was unable to maintain the initial pace. American forces alone recorded 1,250 targets hit in the first 48 hours and 1,700 in the first 72 hours, according to the CENTCOM Fact Sheet.

The CSIS, in an analysis published the same day, estimates that the peak occurred within the first 100 hours, with 2,000 targets struck by American munitions. From March 4 onward, the report already points to a sharp decline in attacks.

Airwars, in its March 6 report, confirms an initial “record pace” of combined US and Israeli strikes exceeding 1,000 targets per day during the first four days, but also observes that this volume was not sustained as the operation progressed.

On the first day, Israel carried out the largest aerial operation in its history, hitting 500 targets in 24 hours. By March 5 (day 6 of the operation), it reported 2,500 strikes, showing a drop to 300 attacks per day. By March 7 (day 8 of the war), Israel’s accumulated total is 3,400 strikes, a daily average of 425, or 15% reduction compared to the start of the operation.

In the case of the US, the estimated percentage reduction, based on official cumulative numbers, is as follows: Total targets hit by the US until day 8 (March 7): 3,000. Initial average daily pace (days 1–2): 1,250 strikes. Average pace from day 3 onward: 300–400 strikes per day.

South Korean sources revealed on March 5 that over 1,000 guided bomb kits were shipped to the US mainland from military facilities in Korea. These kits consist of GPS or laser guidance devices and control wings, which can be attached to gravity bombs to allow them to strike targets with high levels of precision. The confirmation of the withdrawal of many bomb guidance kits from South Korea has occurred at a time when talks are actively underway to also withdraw MIM-104 Patriot long range air defense systems for redeployment to the Middle East. South Korean sources have widely reported that the US are withdrawing not only Patriot but also the more scarce and higher value THAAD system. South Korea is the only foreign country that hosts a permanent foreign deployment of US Army THAAD systems.

In the aftermath of the powerful strikes carried out by Iran, which reportedly destroyed the strategic early warning network and ground radars in Israel and most US bases in West Asia, the US coalition reportedly found itself completely “blind” to waves of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles that entered the airspace with little interception.

This large-scale operational collapse is said to have pushed the Pentagon to gamble with one of its last options: deploying six E-3 Sentry aircraft at once over the region. This number is described as alarming, representing about 40% of the operational US fleet, in what is portrayed as a desperate attempt to compensate for the destroyed ground radar systems.

However, this aerial mobilization, which relies on complex and continuous aerial refueling operations every 4 to 6 hours to keep the planes in the air around the clock, cannot fully replace the stability, precision, and wide geographic coverage provided by ground radar networks that were reportedly destroyed by Iranian and resistance forces.

The United States is described as facing major strategic and financial costs. Each hour of flight reportedly costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, in addition to the heavy strain placed on the aircraft’s engines. The text claims that continuing such intensive flights could soon force these planes out of service for extended maintenance and upgrades, potentially leaving Israel and U.S. bases in the region once again in complete radar darkness in the face of future Iranian and allied strikes.

On March 13, KC-135 Tanker lost over Iraq. CENTCOM acknowledges the loss of a KC-135 refueling tanker flying over Iraq. Another KC-135 was reportedly involved in this “accident” but landed safely. KC-135 REPORTEDLY SHOT DOWN BY THE IRAQI RESISTANCE. The US military has confirmed the loss of a refueling aircraft during operations over western Iraq. Search operations are ongoing. A KC-135 Stratotanker was reportedly struck by a P-358 surface-to-air missile fired by Iraqi resistance forces. Initial reports indicate three American soldiers killed.

Drones are now freely operating over the US bases, March 15

US Navy operations

February 22, The US has now deployed 40–50% of its deployable air power against Iran — University of Chicago’s Robert Pape “Never has the US deployed this much force against a potential enemy and not launched strikes”. In the beginning there were two carrier groups (Lincoln and Ford), later also the third was deployed (Bush). These groups have taken part and supported air operations: radar intelligence, missile strikes, aircraft strikes and targeting Iranian ships.

Thus far the Navy’s role has been somehow “limited” and now more speculations are emerging on severe problems among US Navy units, particularly internal difficulties. Another reason is the real threat from Iranian Navy, particularly those factors mentioned in the following chapter “Ground operation”.

Port of Salalah in Oman, 1000km south of Iran, where the US is losing control of the region, everything they hold dear in the region is on fire. USS Gerald R Ford was forced into the war with clogged toilets and after Iranian missile strike, it has withdrawn from the region far on the Indian ocean. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln suffered significant damage after being targeted with missiles and drones – The US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is now withdrawing towards America after being targeted.

Now, to increase firepower, the US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group, USS George H.W. Bush (in addition to G.Ford and A.Lincoln), to the Middle east. Houthi’s preparing to block the Red Sea. Oil tanker flow in the strait of Hormuz down practically by 100%, except those ships by Iranian permission.

On March 14, Trump publicly called out France, China, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others by NAME — demanding they send warships to break Iran’s blockade. France is the first to answer, 10 warships heading there now. THIS WAR JUST WENT NATO vs. IRAN.

Ground operation

Trump administration has been feverishly pondering various alternative measures to solve the huge factitious problem they are facing. Air warfare has not brought the quick victory that was sought. How to close the war or to find any off-ramp.

The American Plan B in Iran involves a ground operation by national separatist movements, where some local militias/forces, with the help and support of the US, could carry out the actual combat operations.

The US plans to use the Kurds. The same Kurds they abandoned in Syria just a month ago. Now it’s about other Kurdish parties, Iranian and Iraqi but the same promises, the same slogan of creating a Kurdish state, only now in Iran. Kurds make up about 15% of Iran’s population – approximately 10 million people in the western provinces along the borders with Iraq and Turkey. Their mood is consistently protest-oriented and they could easily be provoked. Trump has already spoken with the leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran but Iraqi Kurdistan authorities prohibited involvement. In small numbers, these militias were unable to advance, even with massive US-Israel air support.

All of this will be closely watched by Washington’s main partner in the region – Turkey. Which categorically does not want a Kurdish state on its borders. So, Turkey will inevitably be drawn into the conflict – not because it wants to, but because it’s strategically impossible not to intervene. Just like in Syria.

There is also another geographical point. Kurds are located in the northern part of Iran but the real focus of the ground operation should be around the Strait of Hormuz, because the control and command of this region is of vital importance regarding oil market.

It’s also possible to provoke the Baluchis in the south, which are located “in the right place” but then Pakistan would get involved in the conflict. Pakistan doesn’t want a free Baluchistan state. It has its own separatist problem, plus nuclear weapons and many other issues. It’s worth noting that Israel has long been closely working with Baluchi formations, just like with Kurdish forces.

As The Wall Street Journal wrote, March 11, “Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies. Leaving the regime undefeated could motivate Tehran to develop nuclear weapons and leave it in control of much of the world’s energy flows.” “Reopening the strait, military analysts say, may require a ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline.“

The factual and realistic question can be stated, how anyone could seize more than 2,000 km of Iranian coastline to secure the strait and capture Kharg Island. How exactly would that even work, if the Iranian navy is still fully operational with hundreds of missile launchers and at least 20 submarines? Who’s going to confront Iranian drones in the air and at sea? What kind of force is supposed to establish positions at the foot of the mountains that cover almost the entire Iranian coast? Which countries will volunteer to put their navies in Hormuz?

It doesn’t matter the number of ships; there is no way to open the strait by force. A force of 20 ships faced major problems against the Houthis, even with air support. Iran has far more resources to deploy. Iran will use mines, USVs (Unmanned Surface Vehicles), UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles), UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) and anti-ship missiles, simply making this task force in great risk. Iran still has more than 20 submarines, about 30 missile-equipped ships and around 300 fast boats also equipped with missiles. In addition, Iran’s real aces are “supercavitating torpedos”.

No force would survive there. It is true that the only way to achieve any objective would be with boots on the ground, but it is very difficult to see the slightest chance of that happening. If they actually try it, at the end of the day, the American Plan B could turn into a bloody disastrous slaughter across the entire Middle East.

However, it seems so that the US is willing to risk and start the ground operation around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. The US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told this news recently.

A Marine expeditionary unit with 2,200 Marines aboard three US Navy amphibious ships is being ordered to the Middle East. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is permanently deployed to Japan and operates in the INDO-PACOM region but it is now being ordered to head to the Middle East. Its deployment offers land, amphibious and aviation assets that can be available to military commanders if needed. Those 2,200 soldiers could be used for suicidal attempts to invade the coast of Iran next to the Strait of Hormuz. This MEU also includes a squadron of F-35 fighter jets and a squadron of MV-22 tilt rotor Osprey aircraft.

An interesting detail, connecting wars in Ukraine and Iran, was the news that the US coalition has been asking Ukrainian drone-operators to support the coalition troops in the possible landing operation. Reportedly, Iran is also asking help from Russia, to send some teams of experienced drone operators. As generally agreed, the Russian and Ukrainian drone operators are absolutely best professionals in the world today.

Overall assessment

Since February 28, 2026, amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks, the US State Department has ordered the closure or indefinite suspension of operations at several US embassies in the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East region (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon). Operations at the US embassies in Doha, Dubai and Manama also have been dramatically scaled down. The videos of the last five days show Iranian missiles and drones hitting targets in the six Gulf countries virtually unopposed as well as in Israel.

All of this is being watched in real time by Asian countries that, until yesterday, were betting everything on American power to contain China. The red light is flashing bright now. If the US couldn’t defend the Gulf against Iran, what real chance do they have of protecting anyone against Beijing? Up until February 28, American protection felt absolute. Today it feels like something else entirely. The collapse of that decades-long myth of absolute security is the deepest and most lasting indirect effect of this war.

American military faces problems leaving Iraq. With an order to evacuate bases 10 days ago, military cannot leave and remain under intense fire from Iranian drones and local Shiite militias. Iran managed to open fire against almost all American bases in the region to the point that the military had to abandon these bases in a billion-dollar loss. This redraws the role of the American military presence in the Middle East and completely broke the confidence of Asian countries in the American ability to give them protection.

On March 13, an informed Iraqi source: The evacuation of dozens of soldiers from 5 European countries, including France and Italy, has begun after the Al-Harir base in Erbil was shelled. The evacuation process is taking place due to growing concerns following frequent attacks on the Al-Harir base. The same situation exists among American soldiers but the US regime is hiding this information from the public.

The US is losing allies in the war with Iran “First Spain, now Italy. We are losing allies faster than we are experiencing failures in the Persian Gulf. This reckless operation undermines our interests,  both economic and military but also damages our reputation. I fear the situation will only get worse,” said retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Yesterday, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that Rome is withdrawing troops from the base in Erbil, Iraq, following an airstrike on that base.

To visualize the humiliation in cold numbers? Iran is fighting the United States, Israel, the Gulf monarchies, combined with a military budget that doesn’t even reach 1–2 cents for every American dollar and after eleven days, Wave 37 was the heaviest strike of the entire war (so far, March 11), and the Pentagon is begging Congress for a $50 billion emergency top-up that is over three times Iran’s entire annual military budget.

Larry Johnson, ex-CIA analyst: “THE US military is calling for urgent blood donations at a US military base hospital in Stuttgart Germany.” It appears that the US is secretly flying their injured to Germany, out of sight. The US casualties in the Gulf appear to be much higher than publicly admitted.

WHERE is Benjamin Netanyahu?

For the first time in the history of the Israeli current administration, Netanyahu is not present at the military meeting. The Israeli government has convened an emergency meeting of senior officials.

Absent from the meeting are: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Air Force Commander Tomer Bar, Mossad Chief David Barnea, Minister of National Security Ben Gvir, Mr. Iddo Netanyahu, brother of Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The mentioned individuals have not appeared publicly for a long time, so there are speculations they are seriously wounded or killed. In recent days, speeches created with the help of artificial intelligence have been released instead of Netanyahu’s.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz, March 14, 2026

An Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports that one of Trump’s top advisors is warning that Israel may have to consider nuclear weapons. Why is this such a major danger? Because there is deep suspicion that Iran has already developed a small number of warheads. Its nuclear facilities have gone uninspected for many months following the 12-day war. Obviously, with so few warheads, Iran will not announce it, doing so would risk a preventive nuclear strike. But if attacked, we could face nuclear retaliation and an all-out nuclear war.

PS.

This series of “Opening Pandora’s Box” continue with new articles soon.