Opening Pandora’s Box, military assessments of Iran

What’s the secret to Iran’s success against the US, Israel and the gulf states? Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the former commander-in-chief of the IRGC, is credited with developing Iran’s “Mosaic Defense” doctrine. This strategy is designed to make a conventional military defeat of Iran nearly impossible by ensuring the country can continue fighting even, if its central leadership is destroyed. Jafari developed this concept after studying the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, where the rapid collapse of Saddam Hussein’s highly centralized command structure led to a quick defeat.

Iran’s underground bunkers

Iran has built a SUBWAY SYSTEM, 500 meters underground for ballistic missiles. Inside a granite mountain south of Yazd locates the hub of the system. Automated rails move warheads and transporter-erector-launchers between assembly halls, storage vaults and 3 to 10 blast-door exit.

Iran’s warfare technics, tactics and strategies “Operation True Promise-4”

In the beginning of this war, Iran’s war strategy is straightforward: Blind US forces by taking out radar installations, then fire low-cost, low-end missiles and drones at various targets to deplete US air defense interceptors. Once US air defense batteries run out of ammunition, then Iran will launch the larger, more dangerous hypersonic missiles or even ballistic missiles.

Iran dramatically revamped its missile strategy after the June 2025 war. Iran’s new missile tactics throw US, Israeli war planning into disarray. The first week of the war showed how:

  • Immediate retaliation: Instead of waiting days or even hours, the IRGC began reciprocal strikes immediately. When US-Israeli attacks, Iranian retaliation by 10 am.
  • Regionwide, multi-front targeting: “Extensive missile and drone” attacks on numerous US bases, from Al Udeid Air Base, CENTCOM’s regional HQ, to Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the 5th Fleet, to sites in Jordan and Saudi Arabia where US forces amassed in recent weeks.
  • Multiple waves (20 or more) against Israel, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, the Golan Heights, etc.
  • Clockwork launch: Instead of firing swarms of missiles and drones, predominantly at night, Iran has switched to 24-hour continuous launch, designed to physically and psychologically drain enemy defenses and sow shock among US regional allies. The latter tactics appear to be working.
  • Overwhelming defenses: Footage from multiple locations shows Patriots firing frantically attempting to intercept Iranian projectiles, often failing to do so thanks to Iran’s time-tested strategy of pairing slower missiles designed to keep enemy air defenses busy with hypersonic Fattah-series missiles against priority targets.
  • Urban strikes: Unlike last summer attacks, where Iranian and Israel provided civilians with warnings on targets, this phenomenon has not been seen this time.
  • Precision urban attacks: Footage from the Gulf shows what looks like the deliberate targeting of certain buildings, like Dubai’s Fairmont, The Palm hotel and the Burj Al Arab.
  • Decentralized decision making and execution: The pace and fury of Iranian retaliation show, the IRGC was prepared for exactly the type of scenario that unfolded, with strikes proceeding despite severe blows to Iran’s political and military leadership.

Iran’s earliest missile and drone strikes focused on US radar installations to blind the US military (while also destroying US bases in the region). Once that was achieved, Iran shifted to focusing on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf state (asymmetrical economic warfare), unleashing a global economic fracturing that will be felt for years to come.

Iran isn’t choosing targets randomly. The targets are selected to cause maximum economic pain to the West by fracturing the US dollar-debt empire that’s tied to Gulf states’ dollar-denominated energy markets. Iran is playing with precision targeting that breaks the US military strongholds.

On March 10-11, the war appears to be entered into a new phase. 𝗜𝗥𝗔𝗡 𝗠𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗦 𝗙𝗥𝗢𝗠 𝗥𝗘𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗜𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗧𝗢 𝗡𝗢𝗡–𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗣 𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗞𝗘𝗦 𝗔𝗚𝗔𝗜𝗡𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗦𝗥𝗔𝗘𝗟 The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced (IRGC): “Tehran’s policy of reciprocal strikes has ended. From now on, continuous strikes will be carried out.” This statement marks a pivotal shift in Iran’s military strategy. Tehran operated under a retaliatory framework, striking only in response to US or Israeli attacks. That era is officially over.

Iran is now signaling a transition to a proactive, initiative-driven campaign, taking control of the conflict rather than responding to it. This means Iran will maintain non-stop offensive pressure, targeting Israeli and U.S.-linked assets across the region while dictating the tempo of the war itself. What was once a cycle of retaliation is now reframed as an open-ended campaign, with Tehran seeking to impose sustained strategic costs on its adversaries and shape the battlefield on its own terms.

It appears that the US and Israel don’t understand the war they’re fighting. Iran is waging an almost perfect asymmetric war, absorbing the attacks, strategically rendering the surrounding bases unusable, destroying radars, and maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz while still preserving its missile launch capability.

Iran is doing all of this after losing very little of its navy, air force, or overall arsenal, something we can easily verify by checking the visual evidence of losses. The US and Israel are in an extremely difficult situation because they only know one kind of war: brute-force destruction. Now they’re facing a strategically well-positioned Iran that is fighting on its own terms and timeline.

Iran focused on resilience against bombings and kept almost its entire arsenal in large underground bases that the US and Israel have already spent huge amounts of munitions trying to penetrate. Obviously so far, Iran has shown only little of its arsenal. It still has more than 20 models of aquatic drones that haven’t even put in the water yet.

The US coalition didn’t study Iran enough and severely underestimated it. Iran is a global leader in missiles and drones, alongside Russia and China. This is all a carefully built strategy for the global audience to defeat the US, not Iran. The false numbers from CENTCOM are being repeated by Western media but this propaganda doesn’t change the battlefield reality and isn’t degrading Iran any further. Iran is very determined to continue the war, which creates a massive problem for the Americans and Israel as well as Gulf Arab countries.

IRAN IS DOING SOMETHING FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN “WESTERN EXPERTS” REALIZE. For years, Western analysts assumed Iran’s missile arsenal was mostly about spectacle, loud launches, dramatic footage, limited real military effect. The opening phase of this war suggests something very different.

Iran is not firing randomly; it appears to be dismantling the architecture of US power in the Middle East piece by piece. Iran has concentrated on the invisible systems that make modern militaries function: radars, communications nodes, logistics hubs, and refueling aircraft. Iranian strikes appear to revolve around four objectives.

First, sensor blindness. Radars and missile-defense sensors are the eyes of modern warfare. Destroy or degrade them, and even the most advanced air defense network begins to stumble. That may explain the reported damage to critical systems like the billion-dollar installation AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Similar sensor targets appear elsewhere, including THAAD-related radar infrastructure in the UAE and an AN/TPY-2 radar in Jordan.

Second, operational logistics. Iranian strikes have repeatedly targeted staging hubs and support infrastructure rather than just frontline forces. At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, strikes reportedly damaged five KC-135 aerial refueling tankers on the ground. Tankers are the lifeline of long-range air operations. Without them, fighter jets lose the endurance needed to patrol vast airspace or conduct sustained strike missions. Take out the refueling network, and the entire air campaign becomes harder to sustain.

Third, command and communications. Iranian strikes have hit satellite communications terminals and radomes tied to command networks across the region, including infrastructure linked to the USFifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Disrupt those systems, even temporarily, and the battlefield becomes slower, messier, and more dangerous for the side that depends on centralized coordination.

Finally, economic pressure. Alongside military targets, Iran has signaled a willingness to threaten the arteries of global commerce, particularly shipping and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. It’s a reminder that this conflict isn’t confined to bases and radars. The global economy sits uncomfortably close to the front lines.

Iran’s air defense (AD) systems

Iran’s entire air defense system was renewed and reorganized after 12 Days War in summer 2025. Iran’s AD is based on decentralized organization and regional operations, yet key operative intelligence being received centralized from China and Russia. The equipment & systems are either domestic produced or received from Russia and China.

Iran operates Russian-supplied S-300PMU-2 long-range SAM batteries (maximum engagement range 200 – 300 km against fighters) at coastal sites including Bushehr and along the northern Gulf littoral. These systems provide overlapping coverage that can reach eastern Kuwaiti airspace and adjacent Gulf waters at maximum range. Russian S-300 Air Defense Systems shot down three US F-15E Strike Eagles fighter jets near the Kuwait-Iran Border (later 2-3 jets more). Reports indicate that the F-35 was discovered by the Russian S-300 PMU-2 Favorite air defense system radar previously supplied to Iran. Iran also has at least one S-400 battery, delivered before the war and was spotted in the Isfahan area, which was not seen in footage of strikes on Iranian air defenses.

Switch from GPS to BeiDou. The Iranians switched from GPS-guided weapons to the Chinese BeiDou network. With this, the US jammers that were used massively during the 12 days were not effective against more modern Iranian missiles. The entire communications package of the BeiDou constellation is infinitely more resistant than conventional GPS. This explains the level of precision of the Iranians today, much higher than what was seen in the 12 days. They are the same missiles, but with safer and more precise navigation.

CHINA GAVE IRAN EVERY SINGLE TOOL USED TO SHOOT DOWN THE F-35. Iran just hit a US F-35 (and another a day later), the “unkillable” $100M stealth jet. China’s technology package included:

  • YLC-8B Radar — 700km range, designed specifically to track F-35 and B-2 stealth aircraft
  • JY-27A Radar — backup anti-stealth radar system, UHF-band low-frequency surveillance
  • BeiDou-3 Satellite Navigation — replaced US GPS entirely, unjammable by the United States 500+
  • Chinese Satellites — live SIGINT feed, terrain mapping, US naval movement tracking in real time
  • Liaowang-1 Spy Ship — 30,000 tons, 6,000km sensor range, parked near Strait of Hormuz
  • CETC AI + Cybersecurity Systems — replacing ALL Western tech in Iran since January 2026
  • PLA Satellite Terrain Maps — precise coordinates of US naval activity in the Persian Gulf Electronic Warfare Architecture — full military tech stack transition completed before the war started.

That is 8 separate Chinese military systems actively working against the US F-35. Iran pulled the trigger but China built the weapon and China is watching every second of this war to collect data on US stealth technology performance.

China claims its new anti-stealth radars can detect US F-35 jets, nuclear subs & drones, being a GAME-CHANGER in military tech — unveiling next-gen radars designed to neutralize US aircraft. Why they matter: US military dominance relies on stealth — China’s new radars could shift the balance of power.

Iran’s Majid Missile (AD-08), a device representing domestic Iranian production, was that missile which brought down the US F-35 stealth fighter jet. Iran’s IRGC reportedly used the new Majid (AD-08) infrared-guided short-range system to hit and damage a US F-35 over central Iran. This is the first confirmed SAM hit ever against the F-35 aircraft. It was a shock to more than 20 countries that fly or have ordered the jet. Majid uses a completely silent infrared seeker that gives off no radar signal, slips past radar warning receivers, ignores electronic jamming, and hits the F-35’s much bigger heat signature while its radar cross-section stays tiny.

Russia and Iran already signed a $580 million deal for 500 Russian triple-spectral 9K333 Verba MANPADS launchers plus 2,500 9M336 missiles. When these arrive, low-altitude flights over Iran will become extremely dangerous. Block 4 software upgrades are still delayed so F-35s cannot fire long-range air-to-surface missiles yet, they must fly much closer to targets, making them easy prey for short-range systems like Majid and Verba.

Iranian infrared air defenses already proved deadly by downing several US MQ-9 Reaper drones and Israeli Heron TP drones, now the same technology has taken down a manned fifth-generation fighter. Have F-35s become obsolete, or does the US still have room for improvement?

The shootdown has significant implications for the immediate air campaign and will potentially reduce US and Israeli efforts to use stealth aircraft to launch penetration strikes deep inside Iran.

Missiles and drones

Tehran has developed a diverse fleet of missiles and drones designed for different combat roles. During this war, Iran has repeatedly surprised western military experts by introducing new types of weapons.

IRAN hit Israel with a solid-fuel Sejjil missile for the FIRST TIME. Iran also launched Khorramshahr super-heavy missiles with 2-ton warheads, Kheybar Shekan missiles, Qadr missiles &Emad missiles.

Iran has started using its heavy missiles, deploying a new generation of ballistic missiles Sejjil. A warhead weighing about 1000 kg can cause a powerful explosion. Facts about the missile: range of approximately 2000–2500 km a two-stage ballistic missile on solid fuel can carry a warhead of 500–1000 kg. Surging at Mach 14 in its final plunge, the Sejjil races from central Iran to hammer Tel Aviv targets in under seven minutes. Powered by a two-stage solid-fuel system stretching 2,500km with a 1,500kg payload, it fires from mobile launchers for undetectable rapid strikes Solid-fuel weapons are easier to store and launch at short notice. Iran’s Sejjil missile boosts Tehran’s asymmetric edge with hypersonic speeds and mobile launches, exposing Iron Dome and US defenses systems obsolete.

Iran has used a Khorramshahr ballistic missile with cluster-munition warheads at Israel. The Khorramshahr has a ~2,000 km range and can carry a warhead of up to ~1.5 tons capable of dispersing dozens of submunitions. Actually, it is not a cluster bomb but instead the Khorramshahr-4 smart missile is a mother missile that holds 80 submunitions, and each submunition has the ability to select or change targets, unlike unguided cluster bombs mainly used in populated areas.

Although Iran in June 2025 reported the use of the older baseline Fattah ballistic missile against Israeli targets, which local sources referred to as a “hypersonic missile,” this missile used an advanced manoeuvring reentry vehicle, rather than a genuine hypersonic glide vehicle. The Fattah-2, by contrast, which was first time used in the current conflict, is the first and only Iranian missile type known to integrate a hypersonic glide vehicle. 

The Karrar sits at the top of Iran’s unmanned strike hierarchy. The Karrar is a fast, lethal, jet-powered platform that closes the gap between drone and cruise missile. Specs that matter: — Range: 1,000 km — Propulsion: Jet engine, turbojet or turbofan — Speed: High subsonic, significantly faster than any propeller-driven Iranian drone — Armament: Air-to-ground guided munitions, anti-ship missiles — Key feature: Air-launched capable, can be deployed from Iranian aircraft, extending effective reach beyond 1,000 km Role: Expendable or reusable high-speed strike platform.

Iran has unveiled the 359 loitering surface-to-air missile (SAM), an upgraded version of the previously established 358 model (loitering munition). The new missile features a larger design and is reportedly powered by a Tolou-10 turbojet engine. It boasts a range exceeding 150 kilometers and can reach altitudes over 9 kilometers, with speeds of up to 1,000 kilometers per hour. The 359 missile can target high-altitude military aircraft, including AWACS and refueling tankers, from distances greater than 150 kilometers. This advanced missile system is expected to enhance Iran’s air defense capabilities, particularly in the context of its use by groups such as Yemen, Hezbollah, and the Iraqi Resistance.

Tehran has developed a diverse fleet of strike drones designed for different combat roles. In addition to the famous Shaheds, here are the top-notch Iranian drones:

Mohajer-6 — The tactical backbone of Iran’s proxy forces. This drone is a battlefield multiplier, equipped with electro-optical sensors and capable of firing the Almas anti-tank missile with pinpoint accuracy. It has been exported and used in conflicts from the Caucasus to the Red Sea, systematically destroying armored vehicles and fortifications.

Mohajer-10 — The next evolution in strike capability. It boasts triple the range (2,000 km) and double the flight endurance (24 hours) of its predecessor. Most critically, it can carry a 300 kg payload, including up to six smart bombs or cruise missiles, allowing it to saturate small sections of an air defense network.

Kaman-22 — Iran’s “wide-body” combat drone. With a 3,000 km range, it can reach the furthest US outposts. It carries a 300 kg payload of air-to-ground missiles and glide bombs, designed to hit command centers and radar sites deep behind enemy lines, far from the front.

Karrar — The jet-powered speed demon. Unlike propeller drones, the Karrar races to its target at high subsonic speeds. It can be configured as a swarm leader or as a “mini-cruise missile” itself, carrying a 225 kg warhead to strike time-sensitive targets before defenses can react.

Fotros — The heavy hitter. With a 2,000 km range and a 30-hour flight time, it carries up to six missiles. Its large airframe allows for powerful, advanced communication relays, meaning it can guide other drones or missiles to their targets while staying outside the immediate kill zone.

Arash-2 — A loitering munition specifically designed to hunt radars. Once a US Patriot or THAAD battery turns on its radar, the Arash-2, with a range exceeding 1,000 km, can home in on that emission and destroy the system, effectively blinding the base’s air defense.

Hadid-110 (Dalaho) — A jet-powered stealth loitering munition fresh from real combat. It hits 510 km/h with a radar cross-section below 0.02 square meters, evading F-15E and E-3C detection. With a 350 km range and a 30 kg warhead, it precisely targets Persian Gulf infrastructure, slipping past Western defenses silently.

Meraj-521 — A man-portable loitering munition that fits in a backpack. With a 5 km range and interchangeable 500g-1kg warheads, it silently strikes bunkers and armor via live video feed. Launched in swarms from ground or air, it dismantles fortified positions without exposing a single soldier to return fire.

Arash 2 drone

https://x.com/SprinterPress/status/2035616577308025095

Daily recorded launches of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. This seems to be the minimum daily requirement to achieve successful penetration of regional air defenses: 10-30 ballistic missiles, 50-100 drones. In last couple of days, Iran has accelerated the number of strikes.

All the cards are currently in Iran’s hands. Iran can prolong this war for as long as it wants. It has more than 100,000 drones and over 10,000 ballistic missiles. In addition, it has large-scale production capacity, allowing it to produce more than 400 drones every day and between 100 and 400 ballistic missiles each month. With such production capability, Iran could potentially sustain the war for a long time, exhausting the United States and Israel.

Missile Launchers

Both the IDF and the US CENTCOM have many times reported that they had destroyed a large part of the Iranian launchers and even boasting that at least 75% of missile launchers have been destroyed.

Iran has been manufacturing launchers of various sizes for 35 years. The Iranians have an entire network of public and private companies, with various startups forming a vast ecosystem connected to universities and other research centers. It has been manufacturing and stockpiling missiles for so many years that saying the Iranian missiles or launchers are running out, is nonsense. Iran operates both with mobile launchers and from its underground silos.

IRAN JUST BROKE EVERY RULE OF MODERN WARFARE They built 500-meter-deep underground missile cities. In ALL 31 provinces. No launch pad visible, no pre-strike warning possible, missiles exit the tunnel. This operation mode is invisible, unkillable, unstoppable. The US claims to have destroyed Iran’s missile capacity but Iran launched 7 missile barrages in 24 hours yesterday. That’s a weapon the world has never seen before.

Based on numerous military estimates, mobile launchers may amount to several hundred and underground silos up to 500-600. Some of these silos use the revolver system, meaning one missile is launched, the drum rotates and already puts the next one in launch position. These revolver systems normally hold about 8 missiles each.

IRAN’S MOBILE MISSILE NETWORK: Despite nonstop claims by Washington and Tel Aviv that they’ve wiped out Iran’s missile force, Tehran’s launches are actually ramping up. The reason is a network of road-mobile Zolfaqar Transporter-Erector-Launchers (TEL) backed by underground super-hardened facilities.

Zolfaqar TELs are built on rugged Mercedes-Benz 2631 6×6 chassis with later indigenous 8×8 upgrades for superior off-road performance The dual-missile configuration allows each launcher to carry and fire two Zolfaqar missiles in rapid succession. Powerful hydraulic erector systems raise missiles from horizontal to vertical launch position in just minutes. Iran quietly relocated its remaining heavy launchers into super-hardened mountain tunnel networks during the quiet period.

Iran has not yet entered the phase of massively using its silos, mainly because it doesn’t want satellites to map all of these bases. Anyway, it is very difficult to detect those silos from outside, as seen in this video:

Iran could simply operate from its silos

On March 21, Iran may have just exposed a capability that raises serious concerns for the United States. Two missiles were launched from Iran toward Diego Garcia, nearly 4000 km away. One failed mid-course but the second was intercepted by a US Navy SM-3 interceptor, a system that costs over 20 million dollars per shot and is produced in limited numbers each year. The key issue is not interception, it is the range.

Iran has repeatedly claimed its missile range is limited to 2000 km. This event suggests otherwise. A strike attempted at nearly double that distance points toward significantly more advanced long-range capabilities, potentially extending into ICBM territory. This changes the equation. If Iran can project power this far, US bases and strategic positions across a much wider region may now be within reach.

Iran’s missile capacity is far beyond what was assumed. If Iran can strike Diego Garcia, then Europe and the NATO are also within range. This is worth keeping in mind before Europeans join the war, especially as Russia may have some targets for Iran to respond to 4 years of European attacks on Russian territory with Storm Shadows and other weapons. These wars are connected and we could already be in a new World War. Now is the time for diplomacy and de-escalation. Diego Garcia was not just a target. It was a message.

Sea warfare

The US coalition has stated many times that the majority of Iran Navy has bee destroyed, at least surface ships and partly this is true. The largest Iranian surface ships have been hit but the key naval force of Iran is not there. The real Iranian naval power is based on small size, fast missile/ torpedo boat and underwater vehicles and weapons.

Regarding naval warfare, Iran will use mines, USVs (Unmanned Surface Vehicles), UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles), UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), and anti-ship missiles. Iran still has more than 20 submarines, about 30 missile-equipped ships, and around 300 fast boats also equipped with missiles. Iran’s naval capabilities are massive. They have a fleet of specialized small torpedo boats and have even developed small submersible torpedo boats that can approach at high speeds before submerging to strike. The US Navy is facing a completely new type of threat.

https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2035503865823371305

The most dangerous weapon at sea is not a missile, submarine, or aircraft carrier. It is something you will never see. Right now, they are at the center of the tension around the Strait of Hormuz. There are several types of mines, each designed for a different trap:

  • Drifting mines, floating freely with currents and detonate on contact.
  • Floating contact mines, sit just below the surface and explode when a ship touches the spikes.
  • Moored contact mines are anchored to the seabed with a cable, waiting like underwater tripwires. Influence mines are smarter. They detect a ship’s magnetic field, engine noise, or pressure waves.
  • Bottom mines sit quietly on the seabed until a target passes overhead.
  • Self-burying mines hide under the sediment, making detection extremely difficult.
  • Rising torpedo mines, they detect a target, launch a torpedo upward, and hunt the ship or submarine.

Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the aggression of the US Coalition, using a range of access-denial arsenal designed to make navigation too dangerous and effectively block passage. Top 8 Iranian weapons systems that can keep Strait of Hormuz shutdown indefinitely:

  • Naval mines — Iran is believed to possess 2,000–6,000 mines, according to US Naval Intelligence estimates. Even limited minefields can halt tanker traffic as insurers suspend coverage and shipping companies reroute vessels
  • Noor anti-ship missiles — With a range of about 120 km, this sea-skimming missile can strike vessels moving through the Gulf while flying low enough to complicate radar detection
  • Qader missiles — An upgraded coastal anti-ship system with a reach of roughly 300 km, capable of covering most of the Strait from mobile launchers deployed along Iran’s southern coastline
  • Abu Mahdi missiles — A newer long-range cruise missile reportedly capable of striking maritime targets at distances approaching 1,000 km, extending Iran’s reach well beyond the Strait itself
  • Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missile — With a range of about 300 km, this missile descends at high terminal speed designed to strike moving naval targets
  • IRGC fast-attack craft swarm fleet — US defense assessments estimate hundreds of high-speed boats able to launch rockets, short-range missiles or deploy mines in coordinated swarm attacks
  • Ghadir-class midget submarines — Built for shallow Gulf waters, these submarines conduct ambush operations and covert mine-laying close to major shipping lanes
  • Shahed drones and explosive unmanned surface vessels — Used for reconnaissance and strike coordination, they help track ships and guide missiles or swarm attacks.

Together these systems create a layered threat environment where shipping risks rise sharply enough to disrupt global energy flows.

Top 8 Iranian weapons systems that can keep Strait of Hormuz shutdown indefinitely

MEET IRAN’S HIGH-SPEED TORPEDOES.  Iran’s supercavitating Hoot torpedoes render intercepts virtually impossible for adversaries, helping Iran to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. What is this underwater “super-missile” that Iran is threatening the US with? There are only two countries in the world that have such underwater missiles: the country that created these missiles, that is Russia and Iran. These underwater missiles travel at a speed of one hundred meters per second. The question is of high speed underwater “missile”, with the Soviet-era VA-111 “Shkval” as the starting point.

The speed of a Hoot torpedo reaches 360 km/h (or 100 meters per second) underwater. Drawing from the Soviet VA-111 Shkval’s M-5 rocket, these weapons employ a nose cavitator to generate a persistent vacuum zone, where water vaporizes into a stabilizing gas bubble, powered by reactive engine exhaust that cuts drag dramatically. The question is of “supercavitation torpedoes”.

The Hoot torpedo is one of the main reasons the US Navy has consistently declined requests for direct military escorts of commercial ships through the strait. The danger of a swift and nearly unavoidable attack from high-speed underwater missiles makes such missions too risky for US destroyers and frigates. The Hoot acts as a powerful tactical and strategic weapon of deterrence to effectively influence the security of shipping in a vital region for the global economy.

FINAL WORDS

Why is Iran winning the war? Why strategy, not firepower is winning today?

Asymmetric wars should not be analyzed through the lens of damage sustained or mass bombing but rather by the objectives achieved.

Vietnam was hit by 7.5 million tons of bombs but it won the war. Afghanistan was struck by over 2 million tons of Soviet bombs and won. In the early 2000s, Afghanistan was again invaded and hit by over 200,000 tons of American bombs. Once again, it won, forcing a desperate US withdrawal under the Taliban’s advance, leaving billions of dollars in equipment behind.

In the current war against Iran, three objectives of the US coalition were clear but never materialized:

Dismantling the Nuclear Program. Not only has it not been dismantled but the coalition is unsure of its exact location. The IAEA states there is a new facility, where material was moved but cannot pinpoint where. The fact is, these facilities built with Iranian UHPC (Ultra-High Performance Concrete) can only be destroyed with “boots on the ground” and an invasion operation that the US is currently unable to execute. While the future landscape may change, the dismantling effort has failed since 2025.

Toppling the Regime. 
Israel not only had a plan for decapitation strikes but convinced the Americans that these assassinations and bombings would create the perfect atmosphere for an uprising. The plan failed. The sheer violence of the killings and bombings terrified the Iranians themselves. They even bombed the residences of regime opponents, suggesting they wanted to “clear the field” to handpick a successor. No uprising occurred. Instead, the Iranian government had a plan, establishing a chain of 4 to 7 successors for every key position. These attacks may have breathed new life into the Iranian theocracy.

Limiting the Missile Program.
On March 20, Bloomberg reported that Iran has already launched over 3,000 missiles. More importantly, Iran deployed HGVs (Hypersonic Glide Vehicles), technology only Russia and China possess, demonstrating surprising technological advancement. Also on the 20th, Iran surprised again by launching missiles at Diego Garcia, located nearly 4,000 km from its territory. The missile program has not been halted; on the contrary, it appears to be expanding and surprising features can be expected.

The US Coalition has already lost this war, even if the US military succeeds in destroying even more Iranian facilities. The global economic damage shockwave has already been unleashed, and the global suffering that will follow will be blamed squarely on Trump, the United States and Israel (for starting this war in the first place).

As I said before, the US has just three options left: bad, worse, unthinkable

OPTION 1: Declare victory and retreat – bases destroyed, never return, new world order

OPTION 2: Boots on the ground – quagmire, collapse of the US Empire, new world order

OPTION 3: Nuclear weapons – unthinkable ramifications