It is getting worse before worsening
Recent events on the international scene have been ominous:
- US-China “frozen” talks in Alaska
- Biden’s “undiplomatic” blurt regarding Russian President
- Blinken & Austin Tour in Asia attempting a wide containment front against China was partly failed, India and South Korea took a cautious stance
- Mushrooming sanctions by US against China, Russia, Iran Turkey, Germany, Myanmar, Venezuela as well as US, UK, Canada, EU against China, Russia and Myanmar. Present and growing sanctions regime is unprecedented in the history of humankind and undoubtedly just growing more and more…until final explosion (“boom and bust” cycle)
- Russia and China, having a foreign minister meeting in Beijing, have jointly condemned Western sanctions, a day after the blacklist of EU, UK, US and Canada
- Lavrov said that “EU unilateral decisions have destroyed ties with Russia, we have only relations with individual European countries. His Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, said the era of interfering in China’s internal affairs had “gone forever”
- Saber-rattling between Russia and NATO in Black Sea and between Navies of China and the US in South China Sea and in Taiwan strait
- The US military has dramatically increased its daily spy plane flights near Chinese territory, in the area of the northern South China Sea, which connects to the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea. A US Air Force RC-135U spy plane made the closest pass to the Chinese coast ever recorded on Tuesday 23. February 2021, flying just 25.3 nautical miles away off Chinese coast
- Continuation of “eternal” wars (Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq),
- Apparent mutual mistrust, low respect and actual aggressiveness between great powers
All these events and incidents in great power relations disclose that “cold is getting frozen, even perma-frozen” and “hot is getting hotter, even over boiling”. Harbingers of next few years seem not to be amicable, in fact the whole 2020s seems to be the decennium of great turbulence, entailing severe, even fatal risks of major collision between great powers.
Main stream media is living in some rosy dreams, focusing on entertainment and “scoops”, and has turned a blind eye on essential processes worldwide, which are partly in sight and partly behind the scenes.
The West, led by the US, is accelerating of sanction imposing and containment policy on China and Russia as well as have been increasing the military budgeting (NATO-countries).
China will increase inputs in the modernization and strengthening of defense forces, raising the annual military budget by at least 6% for next five years. China’s growing readiness and preparedness to war, large factual preparation work for “final solution” of Taiwan case and stark determination to challenge the US strategic position are characterizing features of 2021 and beyond.
China’s PLA got the new exercise system in January 2021, which simulates real battle experience as much as possible in all military exercises from this on. Chinese leadership is well aware that the Chinese military lacks of real combat experience and the purpose of this new type “reality wargame” is to give PLA more factual touch on that. China has also made fully clear the red lines both in Taiwan and in South China Sea. It is highly likely that those red lines will be really tested in the near future.
Russia has accelerated significantly procurement and deployment programs of hypersonic missiles and new cruise missiles as well as fielding of more S-400 air defense regiments and other air defense systems. According to latest US and UK military analysts, Russia has also resumed testing and deployment of ASAT-technology (“killer satellites” and ground-based blinding laser weapons).
Present high-toxic situation combined with military equipment is just about according to assessments in my basic text of this website as well in previous blogs and news, available on this website. I have forecasted an escalating competition between great powers, also and particularly in the sphere of military might. Now it really seems that we will face “exceptionally tough times” in the near future.