India’s strengthening role in the power game: The US – China – Russia – BRICS

India – the US relations

India – US relations are in turmoil today. One of the key reasons is the punishing tariffs Trump administration imposed on Indian export to the US. As Trump said

“To deal with the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066, I determine that it is necessary and appropriate to impose an additional ad valorem duty on imports of articles of India, which is directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil. In my judgment, imposing tariffs, as described below, in addition to maintaining the other measures taken to address the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066, will more effectively deal with the national emergency described in Executive Order 14066.”

Accordingly, and as consistent with applicable law, articles of India imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 percent.

Jaishankar Draws Red Line For Trump | Clear Talk On Trump Policy, Pak-US weird relationship & Trade NewsX Live August 23, 2025

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar emphasized India’s commitment to its national interest amid trade stalemates with the US. While acknowledging challenges over Russian oil purchases, he highlighted India’s independent decision-making and “red lines,” underlining that policy choices will be guided by India’s priorities, irrespective of other countries’ expectations.

India’s Jaishankar Fires Back At Trump On BRICS; ‘You Can’t Force Your Choices On Us’ | Watch Times Of India August 24, 2025

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar dismisses the West’s BRICS vs. QUAD narrative. Speaking at ET WLF 2025, Jaishankar said, ‘Quad is still the Quad, and BRICS is still BRICS, and countries like India should not be forced to make binary choices.’ Jaishankar also spoke on evolving India-US relations after President Trump slapped 50% tariffs on New Delhi for buying Russian oil. Watch this video to know more.

Last year, the US had a trade deficit of $45.8bn (£26.1bn) with India. Since April, both sides have been racing to negotiate an agreement, with officials sometimes sounding positive and at other times, measured. Agriculture and dairy are among the key sticking points for both countries. For years, Washington has pushed for greater access to India’s farm sector, seeing it as a major untapped market. But India has fiercely protected it, citing food security, livelihoods and the interests of millions of small farmers.

Last week, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal told CNBC that the agriculture sector is sensitive for India and that it will make sure that farmers’ interests are “well protected”. Goyal also told news agencies that India remains “optimistic” about striking a deal with Washington soon.

Until recently, the US was India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $190bn in 2024. Trump and Modi have set a target to more than double this figure to $500bn. India has already reduced tariffs on a range of goods – including Bourbon whiskey and motorcycles – but the US continues to run a $45bn trade deficit with India, which Trump is keen to reduce.

India has become the target for attacks from the West for oil imports from Russia, although the US supported such purchases earlier for the sake of global markets stability, Official Spokesperson of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Randhir Jaiswal said in his statement.

“India has been targeted by the United States and the European Union for importing oil from Russia after the commencement of the Ukraine conflict. In fact, India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability,” he said.

NATO Chief Threatens Sanctions on India Over Russian Trade | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G Firstpost July 16, 2025

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, visiting Washington, has warned India, China, and Brazil to stop trading with Russia — or face 100% secondary sanctions. After securing Trump’s support for continued arms to Ukraine, Rutte turned his criticism to emerging economies, demanding they pressure Putin into talks. But critics point to Europe’s hypocrisy: last year it spent €22 billion on Russian energy — more than its aid to Ukraine — while preaching sanctions to others. EU still plans to buy Russian oil until 2027. Observers say NATO should focus on its own failings before lecturing others about sovereignty or sanctions.

While Europe and the West scramble to impose sanctions, President Trump decides to impose a 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian energy, risking fueling a new geopolitical front. This move could rekindle alliances between India, Russia, and China, leaving the United States isolated and even more weakened on the global stage.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet officially commented on it. He will however visit China at the end of this month. According to the plan, Prime Minister Modi will embark on a visit to Japan around August 29 and after concluding the trip, he will travel to the northern Chinese city of Tianjin for the SCO summit to be held from August 31-September 1.

Modi’s visit to China is being planned amid efforts by the two sides to repair their bilateral ties, which came under severe strain following the deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in Galwan Valley in June 2020.The grand U.S. plan of luring India deeper into the Quad alliance to fight China is likely dead. The leaders of the two biggest nations on this globe, plus Russia, will sit together and plan how to avoid further dealing with the unstable US.

India has “Red Lines” with US| Jaishankar Flags 3 Main Issues in Ties with US

Indiatimes August 24, 2025

India draws a firm line in its trade negotiations with the U.S., defending farmers and small producers as tariffs soar to 50%. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar criticizes Washington’s double standards on Russian oil imports, calling out China and the EU. He reaffirms India’s stance against mediation with Pakistan and rejects claims of warming ties with China. With additional U.S. levies set to hit August 27, tensions escalate. Watch Jaishankar’s bold statements and what they mean for global diplomacy.

PM Modi’s ‘FINAL MESSAGE’ To Trump Before U.S. ‘Sanctions’ Hit India | ‘Not Just For Us, But…’

Times Of India August 26, 2025

Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded firmly to Washington’s new 50% tariffs on Indian imports, declaring his call to “Make in India, For the World.” Speaking at the inauguration of Maruti Suzuki’s EV and battery plant in Ahmedabad, Modi praised the company for championing self-reliance and global competitiveness. The facility will produce hybrid battery electrodes and launch the e-VITARA, set for export to more than 100 countries. Meanwhile, the Trump administration confirmed the tariffs, effective August 27, under Executive Directive 14329, linking India’s trade with Russian oil. New Delhi condemned the measure as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.”

India – China relations

China and India are cautiously dancing their way back to cooperation despite persisting difficulties

In mid-July, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited China for the first time in nearly six years, underlining a tentative yet important reset in relations between Asia’s two major powers. Jaishankar met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Vice-President Han Zheng in Beijing. Although the visit did not bring about a radical breakthrough, it did mark a significant step toward restoring top-level engagement and inching toward normalization.

This effort comes at a symbolic moment – the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations – and reflects a broader duality: a blend of gradual rapprochement alongside enduring strategic competition.

Jaishankar, who since 2019 has represented the moderate and pragmatic wing within India’s foreign policy establishment, continues to advocate for cooperation with China and broader engagement in multilateral institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. His presence in Beijing was emblematic of India’s effort to rebalance its approach to its complex relationship with its northern neighbor.

China To Supply India With Key Rare Earth Minerals & Tunnel Boring Machines After Jaishankar-Yi Meet

Mint August 19, 2025

The interaction between EAM Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi yielded one important outcome – that China is set to resume the much-needed supply of fertilisers, rare earth minerals and tunnel boring machines. This comes as India and China move towards a normalisation of ties – here’s why this is significant!

PM Modi Thanks Chinese President Xi Jinping For Invitation To SCO Summit | PM Modi News | News18

CNN-News18 August 19, 2025

The relevance of Sino-Indian relations extends far beyond bilateral dynamics. China and India are the world’s two most populous countries, belonging to fastest-growing economies. Both are ancient civilizations and increasingly influential actors in the rising Global South. As such, their ability to manage tensions and cultivate areas of cooperation carries profound implications for regional and global order.

Recently, there have been meaningful achievements in the bilateral relationship. Political dialogue and high-level engagement have resumed, contributing to greater border stability through new measures. Economic interdependence remains strong, and coordination between the two countries in multilateral platforms such as the SCO and the United Nations has become more robust.  Economic interaction also continues to flourish. In 2024, China reclaimed its position as India’s top trading partner, surpassing the United States after a two-year hiatus. Bilateral trade reached $118.4 billion, a 4% increase from 2023. These figures underscore a deepening interdependence that provides both leverage and incentive for sustained dialogue.

From Beijing’s perspective, the deterioration in relations over the past few years is seen as abnormal. Chinese officials have consistently promoted the idea of improvement across multiple dimensions. India is frequently described in Chinese discourse as a fellow ancient Eastern civilization, and the bilateral relationship has been metaphorically referred to as the “dragon-elephant tango”, a symbolic framing that seeks to capture the potential harmony between the two powers.

During his meetings in Beijing, Jaishankar reiterated India’s principle of strategic autonomy and its independent foreign policy – an approach that resonates with China’s own diplomatic posture. He described India and China as development partners rather than rivals.

Historically, the US has sought to exploit gaps between India and China in a bid to prevent closer cooperation. That strategy may be less effective in an era where both Beijing and New Delhi are increasingly conscious of the need to define their relationship on their own terms.

Fareed’s Take: The damage is done: India will no longer trust America

CNN August 17, 2025

Fareed Zakaria on the policy reversal that “may be the biggest strategic mistake of the Trump presidency so far.”

Despite these positive trends, substantial challenges remain. Chief among them is the unresolved boundary dispute, which remains the most sensitive and complex issue in the bilateral relationship. Trade-related frictions also persist. India faces restrictions on the import of rare earth magnets from China, which are crucial for strategic and industrial sectors. Intermittent Chinese export controls disrupt Indian manufacturing and deter Chinese foreign direct investment. Conversely, India restricts Chinese investment citing national security concerns, has banned several Chinese apps, and conducted raids on Chinese companies.

Geopolitically, the competition for regional influence continues to strain relations. China’s growing presence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean clashes with India’s strategic interests, especially in countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. India has consistently refused to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), largely due to its opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs through contested territory.

While a full normalization of China-India relations may still be distant, the latest developments point toward a cautious but real shift. In a global context marked by uncertainty, polarization, and geopolitical realignment, the two Asian giants have much to gain from pragmatic engagement and mutual respect. The dragon and the elephant may still step on each other’s toes, but their carefully choreographed tango is once again underway.

Trump’s Moves Uniting Rivals? India-China Talks Signal Shift in Global Power

Republic World August 19, 2025

Trump’s Moves Uniting Rivals? India-China Talks Signal Shift in Global Power India and China are talking again — and Trump’s trade war might be why. From Ajit Doval’s high-level meet with Wang Yi to Jaishankar’s push for peace, the two countries seem to be warming up just as US-China tensions rise. With China inviting PM Modi for the SCO Summit, is a new alliance forming? Watch to find out what’s really going on behind the scenes.

Why India Chose China (You Won’t Believe What USA Did)

Cyrus Janssen August 21, 2025

India and China are forming a new alliance after the US has disrespected India, one of its closest allies in the region, with a new series of tariffs that have changed the entire future of the US India relationship. In today’s video we break down everything you need to know about India and China and what it means for the future of our world. 00:00 – The US India Relationship is Over 01:13 – How Trump is Pushing India to China 02:40 – Nomad Capitalist Sponsor 03:53 – How Trump Tried to Bully India 05:06 – Why India is A Real Superpower 05:49 – Why India is Important for USA 06:30 – How Indian Tariffs Will Backfire 07:22 – Why India is Important for US Tech Industry 08:08 – Why USA Containment Strategy is Failing 09:27 – Why is India Buying Russian Oil? 10:40 – Why the US Bullies Other Countries 11:20 – Why India is Shifting Closer to Russia 12:35 – How America Lost Its Most Important Ally in Asia 14:04 – Conclusion

Refreshing “ChIndia” dreams. A new, strong China-India relationship threatens to weigh on the whole Asian balance of power and the ongoing Ukraine War. As US President Donald Trump met in Washington with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky and a group of European leaders, China and India were revamping their ties in Delhi, casting global diplomacy in an opposite direction. The Washington encounter had a clear goal: to frame a general agreement between American allies. It had to secure Ukrainian security and kick off a realistic peace process with Russia. Its implementation is still uncertain. Thus, what happened in Delhi could be crucial.

Relations between China and India are as old as the Asian giants themselves. The two neighboring countries have had their ups and downs, including low-intensity conflicts over several border areas. However, with the advent of multipolarity, the two Asian giants made tremendous strides to improve and strengthen their ties. In recent weeks and months, this has been particularly evident in relation to US pressure on both countries. The Trump administration’s tariffs and even full-blown economic warfare against India and China, respectively, prompted them to rekindle their ties.

The August 18-20 trip of China’s State Counselor Wang Yi to India had a much vaguer outline. It rekindled complex neighborly relations. But the image it projected was formidable. China and India make up 40% of the global population. For decades, they have been pushing their economies to grow faster than those of the Western world. They met under the shadow of warmer ties with Russia and increasing suspicions or animosity toward America.

China and India agreed to resume direct flights, issuing visas to journalists and facilitating business and cultural exchanges. On social media, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted “respect” for each other’s interests and sensitivities. At the same time, Wang said the countries had entered a “steady development track” and should “trust and support” each other.

In the early 2000s, China and India explored the idea of strengthening their bilateral relations. The concept of ChIndia — China plus India — emerged. However, the project soon lost steam because of bilateral reservations and China’s deep-seated contempt for India. With the failure of ChIndia, India shifted its international stance and moved closer to the United States. India joined the Asian defense mechanism Quad with Japan, Australia and America, clearly aimed at China.

Yet, now, despite Quad, the US targets India with punitive tariffs, ostensibly over its purchases of Russian oil. India’s decision to strengthen ties with China won’t necessarily mean it will leave the Quad. India has signed free trade agreements with the EU and the UK, and it has strong ties with Japan, wary of China’s intentions. 

Still, the latest developments will undoubtedly give Russia more alternatives in Asia and influence its peace negotiations on Ukraine. The ghost of the tripartite alliance between Russia, China and India – first envisaged by former Russian Foreign Minister Primakov some 30 years ago – becomes less bizarre. A new Russia-India-China (RIC) relationship could be more stable than a bilateral Russia-China pact.

India – Russia relations

Putin receives Indian top diplomat in Kremlin

The talks were held in the Kremlin’s representative office and were also attended by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov – who chairs the Russian side of the Intergovernmental Russian-Indian Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical, and Cultural Cooperation – as well as Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar.

Earlier, on August 18, Putin spoke by phone with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss bilateral partnership and briefed him on the results of the Russia-US summit in Alaska. On August 7, the Russian president also received Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval at the Kremlin.

INDIA STANDS FIRM WITH RUSSIA DESPITE US TARIFF THREATS. The US slaps 50% tariffs on Indian imports to force India to ditch Russian oil. Claims it fuels Ukraine war. India’s response: Not abandoning Moscow. Here’s why this partnership is unbreakable.

MILITARY TIES. Over 60% of India’s weapons are Soviet/Russian-made. Cutting ties risks national security or massive costs. Russia supplies advanced gear & parts with fewer restrictions than the US.

DEEP HISTORICAL TIES. Since the 1971 India-Soviet treaty, Russia’s been a reliable ally. Vetoed anti-India UN resolutions on Kashmir, countered US influence in South Asia, and backed India against China during Cold War tensions.

ECONOMIC REALITIES. Russia’s discounted oil today (40% of India’s imports) shields it from global price spikes. India is also stepping up its imports of Russian steel, coal, and fertilizers

ANTI-WESTERN SENTIMENT. India’s elites see the US as unreliable. Trump’s erratic tariffs and sanctions reinforce distrust. His friendliness with Pakistan is setting off alarms in New Delhi

MULTIPOLAR VISION. India and Russia share a dream of a multipolar world, free from Western dominance. Russia’s ex-PM Primakov championed this, and India’s still on board. BRICS, SCO, G20—they’re building an alternative order.

Russia and India are preparing to sign a BIG NEW COOPERATION AGREEMENT during the planned Putin-Modi meeting later this year The priorities: new trade routes, new financial mechanisms, new joint ventures, and new opportunities for Indian skilled labor to work in Russia

BOTTOM LINE India’s not dumping Russia for US pressure. It’s about survival, strategy, and a proven partnership. Western sanctions won’t break this bond—they might even strengthen it.

India, Russia Set $100BN Trade Target, Rejecting US Pushback

India and Russia plan to increase their annual trade to $100 billion over the next five years – an increase of 50% – despite US opposition to the growing cooperation between New Delhi and Moscow, a top Indian minister announced on Thursday.

During the first day of a three-day visit to Moscow on Wednesday, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized the need for India and Russia to broaden their trade ties, foster additional joint ventures between their companies, and hold more frequent meetings to resolve issues such as payment systems. Russia ranks as India’s fourth-largest trade partner, while India holds the position of Russia’s second-largest.

“We are all acutely aware that we are meeting in the backdrop of a complex geopolitical situation. Our leaders remain closely and regularly engaged,” he said while speaking at the India–Russia Business Forum in the Russian capital. Jaishankar added that rising global uncertainty puts the emphasis back on “dependable and steady partners.”

Representatives of the two countries once again confirmed the determination of the parties to build up cooperation in all directions with an emphasis on the further strengthening of mutually beneficial political, trade-economic and military-technical relations despite the ambiguous and turbulent geopolitical world development.

Important significance is attached to the intensification of work on the preparation of an agreement on free trade between the Eurasian Union and India, which was fixed in the adopted final protocol of the session of the Intergovernmental Commission (IGC).

In it, in particular, progress is noted on the realization of projects of the International North-South Transport Corridor, joint development of the Northern Sea Route. Special attention is paid to peaceful atom, space, the creation of rocket engines for manned Indian cosmonautics, the application of Russian technologies in the creation of national orbital stations.

 The importance of the further advancement of the large-scale flagship project of the Kudankulam NPP, the production of the first experimental models of high-speed trains, which are being built in India with the participation of Russia and will be launched in 2026, is noted.

The most important significance for the building up of the strategic partnership of Russia and India will have the planned next visit of President Putin to New Delhi.

Economic uncertainty from recent actions taken by US President Donald Trump to punish India for its ongoing purchases of Russian oil.

New Delhi’s purchases of Russian crude skyrocketed after the start of the war with Ukraine in 2022. After its oil exports to Europe collapsed in the wake of the war, Russia turned to India, offering steep discounts. In response, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, saying the oil purchases help fund Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “war machine.” Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on India further to 50 percent. In response, India has said it has the right to buy oil from the cheapest source, calling the tariffs “unreasonable.“

Following Trump’s threats, India’s state refiners began last week to buy large volumes of non-Russian crude. Private Indian refiners are expected to continue purchasing Russian oil per the long-term contracts they have previously signed. Earlier this month, India halted plans to purchase US weapons and military aircraft in response to President Trump’s tariffs on New Delhi’s exports. India had been planning to send Defense Minister Rajnath Singh to Washington for purchasing American weapons but that trip has been cancelled. 

India in the framework of BRICS and Global South

A landmark event, in the Sino-Indian relations, occurred in October 2024, when Chinese President Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of BRICS Summit in Kazan. This meeting marked the beginning of a new phase of engagement. Notably, the positive trajectory of relations was not disrupted by the India-Pakistan conflict in May – a testament to the growing political will on both sides to deepen ties.

Global South’s interests to be in focus of Indian presidency in BRICS 2026. India will pay attention in the first instance to supporting interests of Global South countries during its presidency in BRICS in 2026, Ambassador of India to Russia Vinay Kumar told in an interview, August 24.

“India, as the BRICS chair in 2026, will seek to leverage BRICS as a platform to reform global financial institutions, promote trade and investment, and advocate for the interests of the Global South,” the Ambassador said. The Ambassador recalled words of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding the intention “to define the BRICS in a new form.” New Delhi will have in its focus “the global challenges such as health, technology development, and climate change,” the Ambassador stressed.

China sees India as an indispensable actor in the Global South and advocates for a bilateral relationship that is not directed against any third party – mirroring the same language used in reference to China’s strategic partnership with Russia. Both China and India promote the vision of a multipolar world, multilateralism, and economic globalization.

In this context, parallels are drawn between Xi’s vision of “a community with a shared future for mankind” and Modi’s concept of “the world is one family”, which is rooted in ancient Indian philosophy and emphasizes harmony and interconnectedness. The Chinese-launched Global Civilization Initiative also seeks to revive pre-modern cultural frameworks and plurality of civilizations, aligning conceptually with similar trends in India.

The triangular dynamic involving the US complicates the picture. Current pressures from Washington – particularly the shared risk of a trade war and the volatility of US foreign policy – act as a common concern for both New Delhi and Beijing.

India, China, and other BRICS nations are facing increased scrutiny from the White House and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who have threatened secondary sanctions over continued economic ties with Russia. These external pressures may inadvertently bring China and India closer together, as both seek to safeguard their strategic autonomy and development trajectories.

India, Brazil reject US demands to halt buying Russian oil. Indian sources said that “there would be no immediate changes” to purchase oil from Russia despite a threat of penalties from the US, Reuters reported. Commenting on the decision, a Chinese expert said India’s move stems from dual considerations of economic interests and adherence to an independent foreign policy.

India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite US threats of penalties, Reuters reported on Saturday, citing two Indian government sources who don’t wish to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. Brazil also hit back on Saturday at the US demand that it stops importing oil from Russia. Celso Amorim, special advisor to the president of Brazil, stated, “We oppose economic sanctions under any circumstances unless authorized by the UN Security Council.”

Trump’s attempt to derail BRICS by implementing tariffs is backfiring badly. Instead of convincing India, China and Brazil to separate from Russia, Trump’s tariff debacle has resulted in forging closer ties among the BRICS founders. This is especially true with respect to India and China.

India has reacted to Trump’s 50% tariffs with a combination of diplomatic efforts to negotiate exemptions, domestic calls for boycotts and self-reliance, and a defense of its Russian oil imports as essential for energy security. While Modi is shying away from launching verbal bombs at Trump, political and industry voices in India are demanding stronger retaliation, and social media is amplifying growing anti-American sentiment. Economically, India is poised to absorb the tariff hit, leveraging its market size and diversification.

The tariffs went into effect today (August 27th), which increased to 50% on Indian goods (from an initial 25%) because India continued to purchase Russian oil, have sparked significant economic and political responses. India’s government has adopted a milder tone compared to China or Brazil. The Ministry of External Affairs called the tariffs “unfair” and “unjustified,” arguing that India’s Russian oil imports are driven by market factors and energy security needs for its 1.4 billion population.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that India “will never compromise on the interests of the country’s farmers, fishermen, and livestock breeders,” even at personal political cost. The government has signaled it will take “all actions necessary” to protect national interests, though it has not hinted at immediate escalation or retaliatory tariffs. Modi emphasized self-reliance in a Bengaluru speech, urging prioritization of Indian technology companies, though he avoided naming specific US firms. This aligns with broader efforts to promote domestic brands amid boycott calls. India has defended its Russian oil purchases as essential for energy security, noting that other nations (including US allies) also trade with Russia.

On the diplomatic front, India is coordinating with its BRICS partners (e.g., Brazil and India) to explore legal options through the World Trade Organization, citing “strength in numbers” to challenge the US tariffs. India’s role in BRICS, with its push for local currency trade (e.g., rupee payments for Russian oil), strengthens its economic resilience against US pressure, though this is a long-term strategy rather than an immediate countermeasure.

Meanwhile, anti-American sentiment in India has grown, with social media campaigns and offline movements urging boycotts of US brands like McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Apple. By threatening countries that seek to diversify their economic connectivity, Trump has elevated the value of BRICS as an instrument for multipolarity.