Hot spots and topics worldwide, Part 1 Europe
There are top interesting hot spots and topics in many areas worldwide. I have picked up some of the hottest yummies on different stages, a potpourri-like assortment here below.
In my previous article “IL-76 crash – WHAT and HOW, WHO and WHY”, January 29, 2024, I stated:
On January 24, Russian Il-76 large military cargo aircraft crashed in the Belgorod region. On board were 65 captured servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, transported to the Belgorod region for exchange, 6 members of the aircraft crew and 3 escorts. Russian officials stated that the Il-76 was shot down by two Patriot or IRIS-T missiles, which were launched from the Liptsy area of the Kharkiv region. The radar equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces observed the launch of two anti-aircraft missiles. Judging by the range, the attack was likely launched by the US-made Patriot or French SAMP-T (initially suspected German IRIS-T).
January 31: A Russian Il-76 plane carrying Ukrainian POWs was presumably downed by a Western-made Patriot missile system, a law enforcement source told to the media. “Most likely, a Patriot missile system was used but the probe continues” the source said. An Il-76 was shot down by the American Patriot system, this was established by an examination, President Putin said, also on January 31.
On February 1, Investigative Committee of Russia: The Russian Investigative Committee confirmed that the IL-76 military cargo aircraft was shot down by American MIM-104A Patriot SAM system. As a result, 74 people were killed, including 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were being transported for exchange.
According to the conclusion of the examinations carried out during the investigation, the fragments seized from the scene of the incident, according to their design features, geometric characteristics and available markings, are structural elements of the MIM-104A anti-aircraft guided missile of the US Patriot complex, developed by the Raytheon and Hughes corporations and produced at Raytheon.
Experts found and identified 116 fragments of an anti-aircraft missile with inscriptions in English at the crash site. It was established they belong to the MIM-104A missile defense system of the Patriot complex, transferred to Ukraine from the US. In addition, experts found traces of hexogen with admixture of up to 10 percent of octogen on the wreckage, which is typical for explosives used in Western missiles. The black boxes from the aircraft also confirmed that it was destroyed as a result of an external impact but not any malfunction. Thus, it was confirmed that the Il-76 was shot down by the US-made Patriot anti-aircraft system.
The missiles were launched from the area of the village of Liptsy in the Kharkiv region.
There is only one question left, whether the attack launched by the Ukrainian military or by the foreign “military instructors” deployed in Ukraine, who are operating foreign air defense systems and other equipment and who could launch the strike from some direct order from abroad.
Kiev still does not admit its guilt and in an attempt to distract the public, Kiev is launching media campaigns. Especially, Zelensky is inflating the scandal about the resignation of Commander-in-chief Zaluzhny.
The Russian Investigative Committee released a video from the crash site of an Il-76 near Belgorod with debris from an American MIM-104A missile.
Were American troops in control of the Patriot system that shot down the Il-76 carrying Ukrainian POWs? Former Pentagon analyst Karen Kwiatkowski told to the media that there’s no doubt that Washington was able to track the Patriot missile launch in real time. A more troubling possibility is that American instructors could have been alongside the Ukrainian battery team that pulled the trigger.
February 3, the French military has concluded that a US-made Patriot air defense system was used to shoot down a Russian military transport plane recently as it was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, The Associated Press (AP) reported, citing a source. The system used by Ukraine managed to stay undetected and then turned on its radar “just long enough” to hit the Il-76 plane, according to the report.
Dilemma: Zelensky vs. Zalushny
The fate of Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny has not been sealed yet, as behind-the-scenes political strife is continuing in Kiev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is still seeking to replace Zaluzhny despite dismissing the rumors of the general’s sacking earlier, the Financial Times reported.
Possible candidates for Zaluzhny’s replacement are said to be General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country’s military intelligence directorate GRU. But the Economist and the Times report that both have refused to fill Zaluzhny’s shoes. The British press drew attention to former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s opposition to Zelensky’s apparent move: “Firing Zaluzhny, if true, would hit at the heart of national unity,” wrote Poroshenko.
Ukraine’s Leadership Soap Opera continues to boil. Looks like Zaluzhny has more lives than a cat. There have been news reports every day for the last week that Zaluzhny was out / in / at … and so on. We were informed last weekend that Comedian Zelensky fired General Zaluzhny in a face-to-face meeting and Zaluzhny told him to stick it. There were the reports that Zaluzhny was out and Intel Chief Budanov was in. CNN claimed that a reliable source told them Zaluzhny would be replaced on Friday but Zaluzhny was still on the job.
It appears Zelensky is as incompetent at firing people as he is in running a counter offensive or holding on to Bakhmut. It also appears that things are really going in very bad direction, now that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) admits things are going bad for Ukraine.
Western and Ukrainian officials have recently highlighted Ukraine’s need for artillery ammunition. ISW continues to assess that artillery shortages and delays in Western security assistance will create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans and may force Ukrainian forces to make tough decisions about prioritizing certain sectors of the front over other sectors, where limited territorial setbacks are least damaging.
What we are witnessing in Kiev is not just a kinky soap opera but this kind of chaos in political and military leadership makes it impossible to carry out any kind of coherent, competent military operation. The Colonels and Brigadier Generals go into duck-and-cover mode. No one wants to make the wrong decision or the wrong choice of who to back until there is a clear winner. To choose wrongly during this kind of upheaval can make one a target for reprisals.
That leaves the frontline Ukrainian units behaving like a chicken with no head — a lot of frantic activity and bleeding with death as the ultimate outcome.
The division is not only in Kiev. Washington and London are reportedly at odds, with Washington favoring more Zaluzhny and the Brits more for Zelensky. On the other hand, Zaluzhny has the army behind him, Zelensky don’t … but what will do “two black horses” Kyrylo Budanov and Petro Poroshenko.
As I said in my previous article of January 29, “Zaluzhny’s replacement with Budanov”, Zelensky wants to replace Zaluzhny with military intelligence head Budanov and he’s planning to do so by blaming Zaluzhny for recent battlefield losses near Avdeevka. Ultra neocon Victoria Nuland’s recent visit in Kiev seems to confirm this hypothesis. Her public statements hint no success of AFU on the ground but asymmetric operations within Russia or the Black Sea.
Nuland’s hint towards asymmetric operations points to the elevation of the Chief of Military Intelligence Directorate Major-General Kyrylo Budanov as an incoming replacement for Zaluzhny. Budanov has been responsible for many daring but mostly unsuccessful, terror attacks on Russian land and interests.
According to some IR-researchers, there are two different Western groups in Ukrainian elite, competing with each other: one pro Washington, the other pro London, with slightly different visions of the future of Ukraine, how to use it and what to do with it now, and in general — there are forces through which they accomplish their tasks. It is these two forces, who are playing “the Zaluzhny card” right now, the researchers argued.
The so-called pro-US faction includes Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and some figures in the President’s Office. The other grouping is pro-British and includes the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, its chief Budanov and General Syrsky.
For now, the operation to replace Zaluzhny has simply been postponed. This does not mean that he will not be removed. Furthermore, this does not mean that Budanov changed his mind or that Syrsky did not want to assume the position. Therefore, these figures, which look suitable for replacing Zaluzhny have remained in a standby mode for now.
The decision to replace Zaluzhny could stem from the West’s changing goals in Ukraine. The researcher outlined two scenarios, apparently sought by Washington and London: London is more interested in the continuation of the conflict and in waging a “terrorist war.” But Washington is much keener to freeze the conflict, given the forthcoming presidential elections in November 2024. On the other hand, there is a division in the US, Pentagon may be more pro Zalushny, while CIA and ultra neocons of Bien administration, like Victoria Nuland, are more pro Zelensky & Budanov.
Both Americans and Britons could benefit from freezing the conflict, as they are planning to ramp up the military-industrial complex’s capacity and production over the next three to five years. For its part, Russia signaled that it would not tolerate a new flawed Minsk accords-style agreement on Ukraine.
Ukrainian ex-President Petro Poroshenko’s sudden support for Zaluzhny demonstrates that the internal strife among the Ukrainian elites is gaining steam again. Poroshenko is an old “friend” of the Democrats and Biden’s local business partner and his relationship with Zelensky has been very complicated. He has his own interests and a large contact network. Poroshenko spread panic in Brussels over the Ukrainian president’s effort to get rid of the top general and he was glad to demonstrate his loyalty to Washington by saving its man in Kiev, the researchers argued.
Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time, when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.
The German boulevard paper Bild names one of the plausible reasons for the current conflict:
Zaluzhny wanted to withdraw troops from Avdiivka a few weeks ago but Zelensky refused him this and on December 30 he personally went to the city to the front line to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters. So, all the coffins that arrived from near Avdeevka to Ukraine since December 30 are solely on the conscience of Zelensky and his passion for narcissism. Avdeevka is nearly surrounded and any attempts to hold onto it will cost many valuable lives of soldiers for no discernible advantage. But, just like with Bakhmut, Zelenski wants to hold on to the city to be able point his western sponsors to some successes.
When Zaluzhny will be dismissed, the experienced people in his staff are likely to follow, Zaluzhnyi’s senior staff are also expected to be removed from their positions. With the new inexperienced leadership (Budanov), the situation on the ground will soon become a catastrophic mess for forces of Ukraine. There will be wrong priorities, miss-allocations of resources and large- scale losses of men and ground. On the other side terror attacks on Russian targets, industrial equipment as well as population centers, are likely to sharply increase.
The latest speculations tell that Zaluzhny is leaving his position with his staff and moving to the UK, as the ambassador of Ukraine to London.
Russia’s performance and estimated plans
February 2, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu addresses special teleconference with leadership of Russian Armed Forces:
- After the enemy’s counteroffensive failed, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation retain the strategic initiative along the entire line of contact. The Russian Groups of Forces continue to methodically reduce the enemy’s combat potential.
- As a result of systemic strikes, the AFU losses over the past month exceeded 23,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded. More than 3,000 pieces of weaponry, including foreign-made samples, were destroyed. Moreover, losses in rear areas due to air strikes.
- In January, the Russian Forces launched 127 strikes by precision weapons at Ukrainian military infrastructure and military industrial complex facilities, weapons production, modernization and repair facilities, arsenals, military airfields, POL bases, deployment areas of AFU units and foreign mercenaries.
- In order to prevent the defense from collapsing, the Ukrainian leadership is throwing its remaining reserves into the battle and hastily carrying out another forced mobilization.
The current military situation can be described Russian multi-front & multi-attack approach:
Russian leadership, both civil and military, have said that the more Ukraine & NATO make “terror strikes” in Russian territory, the farther will be moved the borders of Russia. The question is of “buffer zones”.
“The Kharkov, Chernigov, Poltava, Odessa, Nikolaev and Sumy regions will be covered by the Russian demilitarized (buffer) zone in Ukraine, behind which Putin ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be pushed aside, reports the Army Times (Military) newsletter. Military experts in it reported that the capture and retention (control) of these areas “will reduce the number or completely eliminate shelling (of the territory) of Russia with artillery, MLRS, S-200, Neptune, as well as Ukrainian and Western ballistic missiles from mobile launchers, cruise missiles from the Ukrainian Air Force.
Military experts assessed the likelihood of significant destruction of cities (Odessa, Nikolaev, Sumy, Poltava, Chernigov) in the process of their capture (taking control) as “critically high” and recommended that non-combatants “leave them now or prepare for subsequent evacuation.” Previously, experts from the private intelligence and analytical company STRATFOR assumed 40%-90% destruction of Odessa, Kharkov, Chernigov and Poltava during their capture by the Russian Armed Forces.
” This “demilitarized zone” will, of course, be extremely militarized in reality. It will be filled with Russian troops. And this is only the first stage of the Russian army’s advance. Kiev will also be taken, but everything will be destroyed.
The lates situation, February 5, 2024, can be found here:
NATO’s military exercises Steadfast Defender 2024 and deployment plan thereafter
The largest NATO exercise since the Cold War started in February and ends in May 2024. However, no one is going to disband these troops and send them to places of permanent deployment. The United Kingdom proposes to place these troops along the Dnieper. Joe Biden feels that this idea will not end well and has already gotten involved in a war with Iran, so that later he would have a reason to refuse his NATO allies.
London proposes that NATO secretly send an alliance expeditionary force to Ukraine to take up defensive positions along the right bank of the Dnieper and around Kiev. Also introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, strike Russian infrastructure facilities in the north, deploy NATO troops in Finland and Norway, strike of the armies of Romania and Moldova in Transnistria.
Details of Britain’s plan for a NATO expeditionary force in Ukraine, creating a no-fly zone and “undermining” Russia’s offensive capabilities:
- A discreet deployment of large, highly maneuverable NATO forces from the border regions of Romania and Poland to Ukraine is planned to occupy defensive positions on the right bank of the Dnieper.
- A preventive strike by the armed forces of Moldova and Romania on Transnistria is not excluded. In order to “disperse” Russian forces and resources, NATO forces and the armies of individual members of the bloc could be deployed on the territory of Norway and Finland.
- Simultaneous attacks on strategic infrastructure in the northern regions of Russia.
- NATO forces would create a “buffer zone” within the occupied positions, including the border with Belarus and the territory around Kiev, while the liberated forces of the Ukrainian army would be transferred to the western region.
- Preparations for this scenario in London are expected to be completed by May 2024.
To sum up this British plan: one part of the recently-trained NATO-troops will be deployed to the right bank of Dnieper-river, which will be the border of NATO/Russia, another part of NATO-troops will be deployed to the North Front in Norway and Finland as well as in Transnistria. This is the way to disperse Russian forces to multi-front situation, where the timing is interesting.
In May 2024:
- Obviously, Russian forces have finished the winter offensive and are re-grouping, resting and re-deploying troops in order to prepare for the summer offensives.
- Status and position of Zelensky are a big question mark in May; the presidential elections should be arranged in March 2024 but Zelensky has postponed it to the undefined future
- The current martial law will end in May
- While NATO-troops are deployed in Ukraine, AFU has no need to make total mobilization, which is so largely disliked among Ukrainian people.
- Multi-front and multi-activity performance by NATO will weaken Russian position further
Thus, well-argued and basically quite realistic plan and not the most radical that NATO has presented. If you don’t attack, then the enemy will attack you. This is the logic of war.
On the other hand, taking into account the information regarding the military production of equipment and material, European NATO-countries are ill-prepared for this kind of risky operation. Moreover, the number of deployed NATO-troops seems to be not large enough and the motivation and willingness of the individual countries of the block to any “risky business” may vary greatly, especially regarding Nordic countries.
Farmers around Europe have finally realized that the question is of their existence “No Farmers – No Food”. Local food production versus Globalists & Green Deal & climate change, which have proved to be a complete hoax and spoof.
I told about this already in my article ”Das Tolle Jahr” is back in Europe”, January 12, 2024. Europe and especially the EU is destroying itself making suicidal decisions against itself in energy, food, industrial and migration policy. However, it appears that the Europeans are finally awakening, at the eleventh moment!
Climate insanity: CO2 is an essential ingredient in the biological life cycling on the earth but the current climate spoof by the globalists has made it a harmful substance. A Complete Hoax!
All across Europe, farmers are organizing massive protests against their own governments, who have committed to demolishing their industry by signing up to Net Zero/Agenda 2030 policies that nobody voted for or consented to. Which side are you on?
Watch the document: No Farmers, No Food