From proxy war to direct war in Ukraine
My latest update regarding Ukraine war was the article “Western mania for pan-European war” of July 15, 2024, where I examined the recent NATO Summit and its ramifications, Russian and Chinese reactions as well as “Scandinavian Affair” (Finland and Sweden joining NATO).
Here in this article, I will carry on this theme firstly by short wrap-up of war, then by highlighting a few recent key events in NATO’s ever-increasing involvement in the war as well as Finland’s and Sweden’s increasingly dangerous spiral of involving the war.
Short report of the frontline and strikes in rear areas
Russian Armed Forces (RuAF), which have been in attack mode and advancing along the entire frontline, have been organized in six battlegroups: Battlegroup North, Battlegroup South, Battlegroup West, Battlegroup East, Battlegroup Center, Battlegroup Dnieper.
The RuAF is advancing on almost all sectors of the front: Toretsk direction, New York region, Pokrovskoe direction, Kurakhovskoe direction, in the western part of Krasnogorovka, on the outskirts of Paraskovievka and in the direction of Konstantinovka, Kupyansk direction, the Kharkov direction and in the Kramatorsk direction. July of 2024 brought important tactical victories to the Russian army. Over the last month, RuAF took control of the largest areas since the beginning of the year.
Tactical Crisis Close To Turn Into Strategic Defeat Of Ukrainian Military
South Front July 29, 2024
July Ends With Russia’s Victory But Brings Threat Of Major Escalation
South Front July 30, 2024
Just a couple of days ago AFU started a counter-offensive in Kursk region by advancing about 10 km deep in Russian area. Heavy fighting is going right now in this direction.
Some significant events have been materialized since the start of June. The first F-16s have arrived both in Ukraine and neighboring countries and the hunt has begun. RuAF have destroyed 10 US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile launchers, 2 German IRIS-T air defense systems and many other ad systems, several UAV control posts and two large Ukrainian military trains with personnel and ammunition.
The US has announced another $200 million worth of military assistance to Ukraine. The Americans paid special attention to the supply of anti-aircraft missiles for medium and short-range air defense systems, a serious shortage of which the AFU are currently suffering.
Poland announced a number of military operations to begin on August 1. In particular, the air operation called “Eastern Dawn” and “Safe Podlachia” overland operation will be launched in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country. These are not exercises but military operations that allegedly have defensive goals. In fact, the Polish military is preparing for an escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, which may spread to NATO territory.
Warsaw signed a joint defense agreement with Ukraine. The Poles were willing to shot down Russian missiles and declared their readiness to provide their airfields to deploy the F-16 fighters supplied to Ukraine. The Kremlin warned that the Ukrainian F-16 bases will become legitimate targets for Russian strikes.
Presumably, NATO is preparing to launch an air operation in Ukraine and the Polish Air Force gets ready to enter the war.
Losses of the AFU, during June – July 2024, have been momentous and staggering. Troops losses went up to 54,000 in June and up to 65,000 in July. Most losses have happened in the areas of responsibility of the Russian battlegroups South and West. These AFU numbers are not sustainable, no army can withstand such losses for long time.
Some examples of equipment and material losses of AFU in June-July 2024: airplanes and helicopters 28, UAVs 3850, AD missile systems 32 from which Patriot systems 10, tanks and armored vehicles 525, MLRS 68 from which HIMARS 20 and field artillery systems 2625.
Resistance among Ukrainians is growing rapidly against forced recruitments. People have burned dozens of commissars’ cars and other vehicles around the country. Nobody wants to get “one-way ticket” into slaughterhouse on the frontline. Ukrainian Army is taking a beating at the front and in the rear areas, where Ukrainian troop and equipment concentrations are being routinely annihilated. Ukrainian losses average 2,000 Soldiers a day during the summertime.
Air strikes in rear areas
The warring sides in Ukraine are exchanging daily strikes in each other’s rear areas.
The AFU strikes, mainly with drones, Storm Shadow cruise missiles and HIMARS, are hunting civilian targets and energy/industrial targets near the Russian border and in the regions that Kiev has lost. On July 27 night, 12 UAVs of the AFU were shot down near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov. Ukraine regularly attacks Russian nuclear facilities. On the night of July 29, the Russian air defense destroyed 39 Ukrainian drones. The massive strikes targeted five Russian regions, including those located near the Ukrainian border and in the strategic rear, like the northern Leningrad region. On the night of July 25, Ukrainian UAVs and unmanned boats targeted several Russian border regions. Three more Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over the border Belgorod region and four drones were destroyed in the Republic of Crimea. The peninsula came under a combined attack. It was also targeted by at least two unmanned boats but they were also destroyed by the Russian military in the Black Sea.
RuAF carried out 77 group strikes in June and 106 in July by ground-, air-, and sea-based precision weapons, as well as strike drones: engaging power facilities and electrical substations that supported the work of enterprises of the Ukrainian military industrial enterprises; hitting depots of Western weapons and ammunition, missile and artillery equipment, uncrewed vessels; temporary deployment areas of AFU troops and foreign mercenaries; targeting the infrastructure of military airfields, cruise missile depots, and other aircraft armament, ammunition and explosives; drone production workshops, training sites for the use of uncrewed surface vehicles; AFU air defense and electronic warfare means; facilities of the Ukrainian military industrial enterprises for the manufacture of gunpowder, the production and repair of armoured vehicles, and the energy infrastructure that supplied them. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, all the assigned targets have been engaged. Meanwhile, UK and French trainers were reportedly hit by Russian Iskander missiles near Mykolaiv, Kiev and Kharkiv.
The BRUTAL DEATH of 240 Ukrainian Soldiers and Officers Were Caught on CAMERA in ‘BARVENKOVO’
Rumble July 27, 2024
The DEATH of 30 NATO & 80 Ukrainian Soldiers Were Caught on Video In KHARKIV┃Russia’s Deadly Attack
Rumble, July 20, 2024
It appears now quite clear that no new military aid packages from NATO countries can help the AFU turn the tide of the battles. Grinding Ukrainian strategic reserves, the Russian military is steadily advancing in different directions on Ukrainian frontlines.
Black Sea region
ATACMS strike on Sevastopol. On June 23,2024, the AFU made an air strike by five US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles equipped by cluster warheads targeting deliberately at Sevastopol. The Russian air defense units intercepted four missiles but the explosion of the fifth US-made missile in the air led to high number of casualties among civilian residents of Sevastopol. When ATACMS missiles were launched at Sevastopol, a US RQ-4 Global Hawk long-range surveillance drone was detected over the Black Sea guiding the operation.
Russia made a strong warning to the US on its UAV-operations over Black Sea. The Kremlin summoned the US ambassador to Russia after a Ukrainian attack using an American-supplied missile killed four people in Crimea. On June 28, 2024, Statement by Russian Defense Ministry: The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Andrei Belousov has instructed the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to make proposals on measures for rapid response to provocations.
Since this episode, no NATO/American spy flies have been seen over Black Sea, except one incident on July 24. Then a UK P-8 Poseidon plane tried to approach Crimea. The P-8 had UK fighter escorts. Russian fighters scrambled to meet them and the P-8 turned back toward Romania. Washington and London seem determined to create a major war in Eastern Europe and the Near East.
On July 17, President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine’s maritime security strategy. The document involves the development of comprehensive and effective prevention and response to maritime security threats. Kyiv states the need to restore control over the sea coast and maritime area within the 1991 borders. The Ukrainian leadership also accused Russia of actions against the country in the Black and Azov Seas. Russia was identified as a priority threat to Ukraine’s maritime security.
Kyiv also announced Ukraine’s pull out from international agreements in the field of maritime security concluded with Russia. This referred to the 1936 Montreux Convention, which regulates the passage of naval ships into the Black Sea. Turkey plays the role of the administrator for the passage of naval ships.
Ukraine maritime security strategy plans to attract NATO forces to the Black Sea. NATO’s active involvement in the region is a key objective of Ukraine’s maritime strategy. In particular, Kyiv intends to ensure the constant presence of alliance forces in the Black Sea, to conduct regular exercises, maneuvers and other joint events.
Russia sees this a threat and Moscow will take retaliatory measures to ensure its own security, Kremlin official representative Dmitry Peskov said in a comment. The presence of NATO warships in the Black Sea region is going to create additional risks, should Kyiv’s measures be implemented. At the same time, the Kremlin took into account Bulgaria’s and Romania’s membership, which are coastal states.
The Russian military repelled over the night of July 17 and 18 a large-scale Ukrainian attack with UAVs and uncrewed naval boats (UNV) on the Crimean Peninsula. In a statement, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that 33 drones were intercepted by air defenses over Crimea and two others over the region of Bryansk during the attack. In addition, ten boats, which were heading towards the Peninsula were destroyed in the Black Sea. Russian media didn’t report any casualties or material losses in Crimea or Bryansk as a result of the failed Ukrainian attack. The Russian military has been responding to attacks on Crimea by launching group strikes against military infrastructure and related power facilities in Ukraine.
NATO’s growing involvement in Ukrainian war
Ukraine Has LOST Against Russia, NATO is About to be in a BIG CRISIS- Ex-UN Asst. Secretary-General
Afshin Rattansi’s Going Underground, July 28, 2024
Andrei Martyanov: Russia Destroys Ukraine’s Army– Israel Faces Humiliation Against Iran & Hezbollah!
Dialogue Works, Nima R Alkhorshid, July 26, 2024
Russian strikes on NATO targets in Ukraine
In a briefing on July 18, Yevgeny Lisnyak, deputy head of the regional military-civilian administration, revealed that over 30 foreign mercenaries have been killed while fighting alongside Kiev forces in the Kharkov region since early May. The bodies of mercenaries are secretly airlifted by helicopters from Kharkov Airport to western Ukraine on a 24-hour basis,” the official said. The Russian military’s Sever Group of Forces launched a limited ground operation in Kharkiv last May in response to a series of Ukrainian attacks that targeted the neighboring Russian region of Belgorod and nearby areas in prior months. The losses of foreign mercenaries in Kharkiv highlight the defeat dealt to Kiev forces in the region.
On July 19, Russian air force strike destroys British & French sabotage group in Odessa, eighteen (18) members of the British Special Air Service and French army soldiers were killed in the strikeand 25 others wounded. Colonel of the Spanish Army Reserve Pedro Baños has confirmed this incident some days later as well as Colonel Douglas MacGregor. Those French were not mercenaries but soldiers of the French army. Banos has been told that the number of killed French soldiers in Ukraine is greater than in Algeria war.
This strike by the RuAF resulted in the destruction of an entire unit of British SAS fighters – underwater saboteurs, the elite of the British saboteur community. There are very few such specialists, 100-120 people for the whole country (UK). It was a very serious blow not for Ukraine but for Britain, he stressed. “The most interesting thing is that the investigators who came to the scene spoke exclusively English. This means that they (the British) no longer trust the SBU (Ukrainian secret service). There is information that the Ukrainian soldiers have passed on all the data.
These are frightening figures because we are talking about NATO countries,” the expert said. He further suggested that most likely the dead were part of the special operations forces, which are always the first to be sent into combat zones. These specialists not only carry out reconnaissance and guidance of missiles and drones, but are often directly involved in military operations.
On the night of July 23, Russian forces launched a devastating strike on a hideout of NATO military instructors in Ukraine. A precision strike of the Russian Iskander-M missile was launched in the village of Dergachi in the border Kharkiv region. As a result of the attack, the point of temporary deployment of military instructors and advisers from NATO countries, including the United States, was destroyed. As a result of the strike, about 50 foreigners were killed.
The Russian Defense Ministry is regularly reporting on the destruction of mercenaries from the United States, Great Britain, Georgia and other countries in Ukraine. According to the latest estimations by the Russian Defense Ministry, a total of 13,387 foreign mercenaries arrived in Ukraine during the war to participate in battles in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At least 5,962 militants were eliminated.
July 24, Russia’s military has released new video as part of ongoing warnings to the West as it pours weapons and ammo into Ukraine. Moscow also continues to warn against the West introducing F-16s into the conflict, which is imminent. The Russian Defense Ministry footage purporting to show the destruction of a large warehouse filled with US-supplied weapons, specifically including a HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system. The depot was destroyed by a Russian ballistic missile (Iskander-M), with the video showing an extensive building engulfed in huge flames. The target was located in the village of Novopetrovka, in Ukraine’s Nikolayev Region. The destruction and aftermath were then filmed by Russian surveillance drones.
July 26, a lot of French mercenaries have recently arrived in the Kharkov Region to fight for Ukraine, the region’s governor, Vitaly Ganchev, told reporters. According to him, foreign contingents from the UK, Poland, the US and from other countries are also arriving. Ganchev pointed out that Russian troops are targeting concentrations of foreign mercenaries, as well as members of Ukrainian nationalist units, on a regular basis.
Russian forces launched at least six guided bomb strikes in Kharkov. The explosions were heard in the industrial areas of the city and at facilities used as deployment sites for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries. One of the strikes hit the building of the Kharkov office of the Swiss FSD foundation. The office building was used to house foreign mercenaries. As a result of the attack, the building’s facade was destroyed and floors inside collapsed. The attack caused a fire of 300 square meters, which destroyed military property. Several explosions were heard at the FED machine-building plant.
Previous strikes (2022-2023). Western combatants have been singled out for attacks since the outset of hostilities in early 2022, an example being a strike on March 13 that year against a military training base in Yavoriv under 15km from the Polish border where close to 1000 foreign fighters were based, killing an estimated 180 personnel.
Another was the precision strike launched by Iskander-M ballistic missile systems on Georgian Legion foreign fighters in late April 2023, destroying 15 vehicles, killing up to 60 personnel and seriously wounding more than 20 more.
The latest attack represents one of the most significant single losses among Western combatants in Ukraine in 2024, and follows a successful missile strike on the evening of January 16 targeting the headquarters of predominantly French European foreign fighters, which caused at least 80 casualties 60 or more of whom were killed. Contractors from across the Western world have played a significant role in operating large quantities of complex Western weaponry such as American MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems.
Other events
France to form a Ukrainian army brigade in 2024
The Ukrainian military will practice at training bases in France, where French servicemen are normally trained before departing to missions overseas, France 3 television reports (July 19).
France plans to form a full-fledged brigade for the Ukrainian armed forces by training 2,100 Ukrainian servicemen this year and providing them with armament and uniform. The training course is designed for two months. Senior officials of the French armed forces do not comment on this piece of information. The TV channel says the training goal is to prepare a brigade for the Ukrainian army by December 2024. Moreover, 128 VAB armored personnel carriers, 18 Caesar self-propelled howitzers and 24 light tanks will be handed over to the Ukrainian military. Paris will further hand over military trucks, antitank guided missiles and radars to Kiev in 2024.
Moscow cautions Germany any military plants in Ukraine to be Russia’s legitimate targets
On July 24 that the German conglomerate Rheinmetall had received an official order on the construction of an ammunition factory in Ukraine. The German military factory in Ukraine is estimated at 100 million euros. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesman Andrey Nastasyin told a briefing, on July 31, that any factories in Ukraine are the legitimate targets for the Russian Armed Forces.
July 24, the commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli: “We can have no illusions. At the end of the conflict in Ukraine, whatever the outcome, we will have a very, very big Russian problem. We will have a situation where Russia has regained its power, will reach the borders of NATO, led by almost the same people as now, and they will be convinced that we are enemies, and very, very evil.”
South Front July 23, 2024
On July 31, Bloomberg told that the first delivery of F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine. The deadline for the transfer of the US-made warplanes was the end of this month. The Ukrainian military bases its aircraft at airfields in third countries, hoping that Russian troops will not attack them. One of the countries whose air harbors are used in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Poland and the other one is Romania. This is done to limit the ability of the Russian Armed Forces to fire at enemy equipment, since a strike on the territory of third countries would lead to a direct clash between Russia and the EU and NATO countries.
However, this seriously increases the risks for Poland and Romania themselves.
After all, the Russian leadership has already emphasized that in the event of the use of airfields of third countries in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, these air harbors will become a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces.
Over the years of fighting, the Russian military has gained extensive experience in handling NATO weapons. Today, the Russian Ministry of Defense chose the same tactics to motivate Russian servicemen. On July 16, the Russian company FORES announced that it will pay 15 million rubles for the first F-15 or F-16 fighter jet shot down in the zone of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
The new award for NATO aircraft was announced during the presentation of monetary rewards for the destruction of NATO tanks. 500 thousand rubles have already been paid for each destroyed Abrams or Leopard tank. Before the first F-16 are officially deployed in Ukraine, Russian precision strikes are destroying Ukrainian military airfields capable to protect the aircraft across the country.
NATO’s Nordic connection (Finland & Sweden)
For nearly half a century, Scandinavia’s neutrality was an important segment of keeping various buffer zones between the Soviet Union and NATO and interestingly, for some reason, neither Sweden nor Finland felt the need to become part of NATO.
Now both entered the military bloc and in the latest such moves, Helsinki and Stockholm just gave the US the legal permission to station troops in the country. The votes in the Finnish and Swedish Parliaments were nearly-unanimous. Thus, Pentagon will have access to 15 Finnish and 17 Swedish military bases, with the possibility of storing and deploying heavy weapons and all kinds of armament and military material as well as all kind of military troops.
The recently concluded agreements, Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), give the US legal grounds to create military exclusion zones, areas that will be accessible to US personnel only. What this really means is that Finland and Sweden effectively relinquished their sovereignty so it could become a legitimate target for Russian missiles.
As the DCA creates a legal framework for a permanent American military presence in Finland/Sweden, this also means that the Kremlin will surely respond in kind, making Helsinki/Stockholm far less safe than was the case before they joined NATO, thus defeating the very purpose of the NATO membership.
On July 21, two B-52 strategic bombers from the US Air Force Global Strike Command that are capable of carrying nuclear missiles flew from Barksdale Air Base in Louisiana to European airspace. Over Finland, they positioned the flight into firing positions to launch strikes on Russian territory. The bombers were intercepted by Russian MiG-29 and MiG-31 fighters.
After the flight, the bombers were refueled by a KC-135 Stratotanker from the British Air Force and landed at a NATO airbase in Romania. The US Air Force Command highlighted that this was the first time that this type of aircraft landed in Romania, which underlines the deliberate escalation against Russia. Three more B-52 strategic bombers of the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command were intercepted by Russian fighters near the Russian border in the Bering Sea area on July 15.
South Front July 23, 2024
A major step towards nuclear escalation was the recently made US decision to begin the deployment of medium- and short-range missiles in Germany in 2026. The list of weapons will include the multifunctional SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles, as well as hypersonic weapons under development. If Washington deploys its missiles in Germany, Russia will reciprocate.
Exceptionally severe incident took place on Saturday, July 27, when Ukrainian drone hit Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airfield. The Olenya airbase is located some 90 km south of Murmansk. Distance to Finland is about 150 km and distance to the Norwegian border is about 200 km. The strategic air base at Olenya is nearly up to 2,000 kilometers north of Russia’s border to Ukraine.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has for the first time hit back on the Arctic. A Tu-22M3 bomber at the Olenya airfield on the Kola Peninsula was Saturday morning hit by a drone, the Intelligence Service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports. The drone attack is not confirmed by independent sources and Russia’s military has so far not detailed more than saying “Russian troops destroyed 81 Ukrainian drones in the air within 24 hours”.
However, radio interference and electronic jamming are so heavy and systematic along all the Russian border regions that it is a near-miracle that Ukrainian drone has managed to fly through this field.
There is no exact information by now indicating from where the drone that hit Olenya was launched. If take-off from within Ukraine, the autopiloted flight has crossed nearly 2,000 kilometers of central Russia under heavy jamming. Another option could be that the drone was launched from somewhere inside Russia. But there is yet another option regarding the place of launch, which is locating much closer to Olenya than Ukraine, namely Finland.
There is a video, where a Finnish man tells that, during their holiday trip in Finnish Lapland, driving with his family nearby Saariselkä region, they noticed a NATO military exercise going with very heavy GPS jamming. Later they realized being there just the same time when this incident took place in Russia. This man was wondering, whether the drone was launched from there.
In the following video, Col. Douglas MacGregor was interviewed by Clayton Morris and he explains this incident. He considers it clear that the drone strike was launched from Finnish soils (about from 12 min on).
HIGH ALERT! NATO Just Crossed Putin’s Red Line with this Massive Attack
Redacted w Clayton Morris, July 30, 2024
A very justifiable and scary question from Sweden:
What happens, if the Swedish combat command plane directs nuclear-armed F-16s over Russia?
Closing words
Possible peace process seems to be buried in the “deep ocean”, something very crucial has to take place in the battlefield before the parties are willing to genuine peace talks. The west continues military aid to Ukraine and Kyiv regime is not interested in any reasonable peace process. Russia has repeatedly made severe warnings about western military escalation activities in Europe and elsewhere.
I believe that there are two reasons, why Russia has not yet reacted “with hard hand”. The other is the US president elections in November and the other one is the final act of Ukrainian war coming soon. After those events, obviously in November-December, comes Russian big reaction.
Advisable article regarding Ukraine war, link here below
Eric Denécé: “War in Ukraine, NATO and the USA Wanted to Overthrow Putin. Mission Failed”, May 8, 2024
