Final phase in front of us – yet so difficult to see and accept
It is somehow surprising to see, week after week, statements and analyses of western “so-called military analysts”, who seem to have unwavering and obstinate true faith in Ukrainian victory and in all Kiev regime’s war propaganda, regarding the omnipotence of Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
Although entire practical flow of evidence from the battlefields and other regions unequivocally proves hard facts like complete failure of AFU’s summer offensive, massive AFU losses (500,000 servicemen/KIA, WIA, MIA), thousands of destroyed heavy equipment pieces etc., those western “experts” resume their political indoctrination and western mainstream media (MSM) resume publishing those fairy tales.
Many elementary military concepts, like “strategic versus tactical”, seem to be unclear to them, for example, minor Ukrainian achievements are exaggerated and magnified as strategic victories. Catastrophic Ukrainian losses are not discussed at all, some “experts” even wonder, why AFU is not attacking more.
However, step-by-step, Ukraine seems to be losing also western support after the failure in the summer offensive, the western patrons are running out of ammo and equipment and the whole western front is disintegrating.
Military Summary 2023.10.02
American budgeting hassle – with international ramifications
On Saturday September 30, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy did not include $6 billion for Ukraine (part of a new $24 billion package for Kiev requested by the White House) in a stopgap measure to keep the government running until November 17.
Republican opposition to Ukraine aid appears to have been gaining momentum in Washington. Last Thursday, roughly half of House Republicans voted to exclude $300 million for Ukraine from the Pentagon spending bill. Even though the money was later approved in a separate proposal to fund Kiev, the trend has triggered concerns in the US mainstream press.
President Joe Biden has called upon American lawmakers to approve a new multi-billion package for Ukraine as funding for Kiev is drying out. Pentagon has warned US lawmakers that the Department of Defense (DoD) has roughly $5.4 billion for Kiev in the presidential drawdown account and $1.6 billion left from the $25.9 billion in the congressionally approved Ukraine package. The US is swiftly running out of money while it has to replenish its own military stockpiles. The warning came after the GOP-controlled House of Representatives passed a stopgap measure to avoid the government shutdown, which did not include funding for Ukraine.
Without another abundant infusion of cash from Congress, US funding for Ukraine’s government expenditures will run dry by November, a report citing officials in Washington and Kiev says. While Ukraine’s Finance Ministry has resources to cover the budget needs for October, “beyond November the government could face decisions about what services or salaries to cut, or whether to attempt to borrow,” a Ukrainian official was cited as saying. The source voiced concerns that ending payments to Ukraine’s government could trigger discontent in the country and “potentially put political pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky, who would face louder criticism from rival factions.”
The debate over economic aid to Ukraine has divided Congress. Republicans who oppose funding for Ukraine have argued the need to put domestic priorities first, instead of sinking cash into NATO’s proxy war with Russia. Ukraine’s botched counteroffensive has added to doubts, along with soaring prices and borrowing costs, economic slowdown, and inflation. An August survey found that 55 percent of Americans thought lawmakers should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine.
“Ukraine is ‘freaking out’ as McCarthy chaos threatens US aid”, said Politico on October 4. After the ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, there is concern in Kyiv that Ukraine has become a tool of US domestic politics. After a year and a half of war, Ukraine’s leaders now have a new reason to worry: Mounting political chaos in America is threatening to derail their supply of money and weapons. Tweets below (October 5) explain more of current situation.
British ministers on the move – bellicose statements
Ben Wallace, the former Defense Minister of the UK, writes in the Telegraph, October 1:
“Putin is desperately grasping at the final two things that can save him – time and the splitting of the international community. Britain can do something about both. We must help Ukraine maintain its momentum – and that will require more munitions, ATACMSs and Storm Shadows. Ukraine can also play its part. The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but the fact is that Russia is mobilizing the whole country by stealth. Perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilization.”
Think for a moment those two statements “Storm Shadow missiles as game-changers” and “The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40” what they really mean.
Based on the many months experience in real warfare, Storm Shadows have NOT proved to be any kind of game-changer in this war.
If what Wallace says about the average age on the Ukrainian front is true, 40 years, then the worst assumptions about losses have been far exceeded. Looking at pictures of Ukrainian soldiers at the frontlines, Wallace seems to be right. If you are forty or above, are you really still able to run, react and fight like, when you were twenty? The young Ukrainians are gone. They either have fled from Ukraine or are wounded, disabled or died. You cannot mobilize what is no longer there. This is a huge loss that will forever haunt Ukraine.
UK’s new defense secretary, Grant Shapps, is already publicly proposing escalations in the Ukrainian conflict.
During an interview to a Western media outlet, Shapps revealed that he plans to send British soldiers to Ukrainian territory, where they are expected to train Kiev’s troops. The case generated a Russian reaction “British soldiers in Ukraine would be legitimate target for Russia” and a failed attempt at clarification by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
The newly appointed secretary stated that there are plans for the British training program for Ukrainian soldiers to be conducted inside the Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, he said that British production of weapons and military equipment for Kiev could also be relocated to Ukraine, mainly in the west of the country, where the damage from the conflict is not so significant.
Obviously, all the measures suggested by Shapps will significantly escalate the conflict if they are actually implemented. British soldiers on Ukrainian soil would be a legitimate target for Russian attacks, even if their role on the battlefield is only to instruct Ukrainian troops, without directly participating in the fighting. All foreign military personnel working on Kiev’s side in Ukraine are legitimate targets, regardless of their role.
In the same sense, British weapons factories would also certainly be targeted by Russian artillery. Enemy military infrastructure will always be a target for Moscow, which is why British defense companies planning to move to Ukraine must be aware that their facilities will be at great risk due to the high-precision strikes regularly carried out by the Russian armed forces.
Despite the bellicose statements by some ministers, the UK is facing exact similar problems as other European NATO nations: “Britain has run out of arms to send to Ukraine”
An advisable article on this topic is here:
War Is a Racket: UK Advises Zelensky to Enlist Young Ukrainian Recruits as Arms Companies Ink Deals in Kiev, Strategic Culture Foundation, by Robert Bridge, October 3, 2023
EU’ s “eternal commitment” to Ukraine – empty promises on top of empty
EU pledges lasting support at “historic” Kiev Meeting as America steps back. After President Biden over the weekend signed a stopgap funding bill that did not include aid for Ukraine, given Congressional Republicans are blocking it, European leaders have vowed Monday, October 2, to commit to lasting support for Kiev.
EU foreign ministers were taking part in a “historic” meeting in the Ukrainian capital, even as the war grinds on into its 20th month. The bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed solidarity and support to the Ukrainian people but also cautioned that the meeting “does not have the aim of reaching concrete conclusions and decisions.”
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba praised the EU at a moment of simultaneous disappointment with Washington as billions in US aid hangs in the balance. France’s foreign minister Catherine Colonna framed the meeting as intending to signal Moscow that Europe is ready to stand by Ukraine for the long term, even as US support is set to wane or possibly be halted altogether for the first time. Germany’s FM Annalena Baerbock said Europe must be ready to increase its support to protect the Ukrainian people ahead of the cold winter months. She called for a “winter protection plan”…
Days ago, CNBC wrote that “Ukraine is trying to keep its international backers close as the spillover effects of the war with Russia threaten to upset its alliances and damage support for its cause.” Still, as The Wall Street Journal says in a fresh report, America’s “step back” has sent “shockwaves” across the Atlantic: The U.S. decision sent shock waves across the Atlantic.
An offsite meeting of the European Council at the foreign ministerial level was held in Kiev on October 2. but no practical decisions were announced in the session. Poland, Hungary, Latvia and Sweden were represented by deputy ministers and senior diplomats. Meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kiev proves a flop; the European diplomats were unable to agree on the next package of military aid to Ukraine for 2024, amounting to 5 billion euros.
Notably absent from the EU meeting was Poland, Hungary, and Latvia. “The Polish and Latvian representatives were ill,” a Ukrainian government official claimed. But clearly at least in the cases of Poland and Hungary, tensions with Kiev have been on the rise, particularly over grain imports. Poland has led the way in extending a blockage on all Ukrainian grain in order to protect its own farmers.
Based on Politico’s reporting, the following video reveals interesting information:
EU’s Military Aid ‘Bluff’ To Ukraine Exposed; Bloc Boasts Of More Aid As Stockpiles Go Dry | Report , Hindustan Times October 4, 2023
European Union countries no longer can give weapons to Ukraine from their stockpiles without endangering their own security, Politico reports, October 3, citing a European official. A US administration official, in turn, told Politico that after 18 months of intense, industrial-scale combat, European stockpiles were running dry. The news outlet said, citing US officials, that the Pentagon still had weapons to send to Ukraine, but was “running out of money to replenish its own stockpiles.”
The Wall Street Journal reported on October 2, citing Pentagon officials, that the US Department of Defense had $5.2 billion left to provide military support to Ukraine, which “is roughly equivalent to the value of the weaponry the Biden administration has sent to Ukraine over the last six months.”
Politico also reported that “Ukraine looks to arm itself as Western support slips.” Ukrainian leaders had a meeting, in Kiev, with hundreds of defense industry officials and policymakers from allied countries. The message was clear: Ukraine is open for business, especially interesting in local production. On the other hand, another “message” was delivered soon afterwards. Russian Forces made a massive air strike on tens of targets, around Ukraine, particularly targeting on industrial facilities.
October 4, as BBC was reporting Ukraine war: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition. Western military powers are running out of ammunition to give Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion, the UK and NATO have warned. Adm Rob Bauer, NATO’s most senior military official, told the Warsaw Security Forum that “the bottom of the barrel is now visible”. He said governments and defense manufacturers now had to “ramp up production in a much higher tempo”.
The admiral, who chairs NATO’s Military Committee, said decades of underinvestment meant NATO countries had begun supplying Ukraine with weapons with their ammunition warehouse already half-full or even emptier. Ukraine fires thousands of shells every day and most now come from NATO.
The difficulty is that despite attempts to ramp up production, Ukraine is using the ammunition faster than Western powers can replace it. NATO and EU countries have agreed various plans to share expertise, agree joint contracts with defense manufacturers, subsidize production as much as they can. But it appears that they are still struggling to meet the need. Analysts say that in contrast, Russia appears much more able to gear up its wartime economy to replenish its own stockpiles.
EU’s next meeting in Spain was again a disappointment, Politico said, October 5:
This tweet below, on October 6, 2023 reveals interesting data. Majority of the financial aid, provided by Western countries is based on debt money. Furthermore, the Ukrainian economy cannot exist without external support, the entire Ukrainian public administration will collapse within a week without outside monthly financial injection. The whole Ukrainian society is nearly 100% dependent of foreign aid.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that in the West, “Fatigue will lead to the fragmentation of the political establishment.” Opinion polls in both Europe (Bruegel analysis) and the US (CNN Polls) carried out this summer show there has been an overall decline in support for measures backing Ukraine, particularly when it comes to additional funding and the supply of military equipment,” the report underscored.
Critical voices in EU countries have finally woken up and become public, especially in Germany, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia. Now that the military situation in Ukraine is culminating, no doubt, those critical voices and demonstrations in Europe will be more frequent.
Two important statements by recent European politicians: Baerbock’s new doctrine of “Lebensraum” and Ollongren’s notice of “cheap Ukrainian cannon fodder”. This is a paradigm of top-level European elite today.
On the other hand, former EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker made an honest statement, October 5
Fatal casualty data of AFU – Final push of Russian Forces is going
AFU loss figures have grown at the same pace as before, see my latest article of October 1 and various data sources. I will release later new exact statistics about losses and military operations, here just general short info.
According to the Dnepropetrovsk funeral office, about 22 thousand Ukrainian military personnel have been buried in the city since February last year. In numerous other regions of the country, according to reports, the bodies of 400-500 thousand Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers were buried. In addition to this, the casualties include missing persons. The deaths of many of these people were not included in hospital records and therefore were not officially recorded. Besides, the lists of those killed at the front will not include military personnel, who met their death in the rear.
Thus, the total irretrievable losses of the Ukrainian army amount to up to 800 thousand people. Together with those who left the battlefield without permission and various types of malingerers, this number can reach about 1 million people.
Russian Forces have started the offensive phase:
Links here (Military Summary):
Ukraine-fatigue sets in
The increasing fracture of support for Ukraine not only destroyed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy but is also threatening the structures of the EU and NATO. In America, Republican voters are growing increasingly pessimistic about continuing US support for Ukraine, while Democratic support has ebbed but remained relatively strong, according to recent polls. In Europe, war fatigue and domestic strain is playing out at the polls, with voters in some countries choosing leaders that are increasingly turning away from Kyiv.
The Russian government had predicted that this process would happen, the forecast war fatigue in the West would grow and increasingly split opinion. Letting the war continue until the West gives up was and is obviously part of Russia’s political strategy. A short war and a Ukrainian capitulation to Russia’s demand for it to stay out of NATO would surely have been better.
But the Biden administration wanted to ‘weaken Russia’ and thereby a prolonged war. It had thought that Russia could not sustain a long fight. Only people, who did not know Russia or were misinformed about its resources would have believed such nonsense. It was obvious to others that Russia has everything one needs to sustain as a nation: land, people, energy, food, minerals and an industry that is capable of making nearly everything it needs.
The only way to weaken or even defeat Russia was on the battlefield. But none of the western wonder weapons was able to do make a decisive difference. Russia found counter measures to all of them.
The way out of the war requires US negotiations with Russia but the Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply invested in Ukraine to launch any serious talks. To find an end to the war will necessitate regime-change in Washington and Brussels. The process has started. But it will still take some time. Unless the Ukrainian army suddenly collapses, no real change will take place before the US election or before a new administration has settled in.
The last few weeks marked several heavy political blows for the Kiev regime. All Zelensky’s begging for money went in vain.
Ukraine’s European partners made another gesture of goodwill and held a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kiev, the first outside the European Union. However, it was nothing but a show-off stunt. Josep Borrel said that regardless of the situation in the United States, the EU will continue to increase support for Ukraine. However, he also clarified that their meeting in Kiev is only a high–level debate that it had no goal to result in any political decisions. In other words, Kiev should not wait for money and weapons, only discussions. As a result, the European Foreign Ministers have not yet agreed on the allocation of 5 billion more euros for assistance to Ukraine in 2024.
The European countries can no longer supply Ukraine with weapons from their own arsenals, as this threatens their own security. After 18 months of intense fighting, European weapon stocks are reportedly “drying up on an industrial scale.” Poland recently announced plans to suspend arms supplies to Ukraine in order to strengthen its own capabilities. The French Armed Forces urged to review the share paid by Paris to help with the production of weapons. The Chief of Staff of the French Air Force said that France cannot endlessly pay for Kiev while its own systems are out of order for Ukraine.
There is also no more money for Kiev in Washington. On October 1, Joe Biden approved the draft US budget for 45 days, which did not include assistance to Ukraine. On the same day, a Pentagon spokesman said that the agency had exhausted “all available means” to help Ukraine. Washington has suspended the financing of assistance programs to Ukraine due to the failure of Congress to allocate funds for this.
Meanwhile, Kiev continues to search for more cannon fodder. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine registered a bill, which should raise the age limit for soldiers from 60 to 65 years, and up to 70 years for the top military leadership.
In his turn, the former head of the British Defense Ministry issued a new instruction to Kiev, revealing his hypocrisy and very cynical attitude towards Ukrainian people. In his interview, he called on the Ukrainian authorities to take more young people to the front. The average age of soldiers at the front exceeds 40 years so Zelensky’s wishes to save young people for the future are not destined to come true.
If you want to listen an honest talk about the current situation, please look this video.
Graham, $70B to Ukraine. Slovakia, EU cries Russia. Wallace, mobilize youths. Halfwits push WW3. U/1, posted by INTEL-DROP October 2, 2023, by Alex Christoforou
by Judge Napolitano, October 3, 2023. A professional analysis on the situation.
In the recent Valdai Club meeting (October 5), Putin made a significant speech, which was not noticed by western media. Regarding Ukraine issue, perhaps the most important part of his speech was the following:
“The Ukrainian crisis is not a territorial conflict; I want to emphasize this. Russia is the largest, most territorial country in the world. We have no interests in terms of conquering any additional territories. We still have Eastern Siberia and the Far East to explore and develop. This is not a territorial conflict. And not even the establishment of a regional geopolitical balance. The issue is much broader and more fundamental: it is about the principles on which the new world order will be based.”