American Affair
This is a story of American Affair … and a bit of others too. I have analyzed this topic many times in my website’s “base text” and in my articles, which can be found in the section of “News and articles” as well as in numerous articles of “Visiting Stars” on this website. Here I take just few key points to highlight the relevant features of the current situation.
US economy
American debt rate has reached “an astronomical level” and is still growing. Federal debt clock can be found here: American Debt Clock , which tells you in real time the debt situation and other important economic indicators in the US.
The total US indebtedness consists of the following parts: the federal debt, US Government Agency debt, State & Local Government and Administration Debt, corporate debt, UShousehold debt, US household credit card debt, unfunded liabilities of social security, medicare, general pensions, veteran pensions etc. funds.
By incorporating all levels of debt, the total US Public debt to GDP ratio has reached the unbelievable level. In September 2019, AB Bernstein, a global asset management firm based on Wall Street, chocked the economists worldwide by publishing the report with detailed calculations where the total indebtedness of the entire America went up to a staggering level of 1832% of GDP. Today, that figure may exceed two thousand percents.
The US Debt Bomb is much bigger than most American or European economists realize and are willing to admit. This debt development, especially boosted by the Biden Administration, has turned America into a banana state category.
Today, the US government’s annual tax revenues are not enough to cover annual interest payments and its maturing debt, thus touching the fatal debt ceiling. As many strategic analysts have expressed the situation:
Note that the annual federal budget deficit has exceeded a trillion-dollar level and is widening.
The present US financial system is a Ponzi-scheme, that is, in order to continue to reflate it, you have to have exponentially more and more debt and month by month the US is approaching to the point of debt saturation.
The way out of this debt spiral would be either cutting mandatory outlays (e.g. military spending) or hiking tax revenues (both highly unlikely due to the toxic political climate in the Congress) or restructuring sovereign debt with the major creditors like China and Japan. They might be willing to restructure the debt but politically, however, the United States would unquestionably come out as a big loser from those talks. The ultimate solution to this debt problem is the worldwide war, which will make a “Great Reset”.
Besides this American “own situation”, the international comparisons of economic power between the countries disclose some surprising facts. The recent World Bank (WB) Data tells a staggering story:
The sanctions policy, imposed by the US and EU, has been a complete fiasco!!!
According to the latest data of WB, Russian GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (the only reasonable method of comparing different national economies), has increased significantly in relations to other leading powers, having now reached the position of the fifth largest economy in the world and the largest economy position in Europe.
The whole database of the World Bank, latest GDP data in purchasing power parity, is available here: The WORLD BANK Data (GDP, PPP, current international $) .
Fitch Ratings, August 1, 2023 has downgraded the United States of America’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to “AA+” from “AAA”; The Rating Watch “Negative” was removed and “a Stable Outlook” assigned. The finance and stock markets took it calmly but for Asia, Fitch’s move – and the rationale behind it – is a much bigger headache than the non-reaction in bond and stock markets suggests. Fitch downgrading US puts Asia’s $3.2 trillion portfolio at risk. For one thing, it’s a reminder that faith in the linchpin asset of the global financial system is dwindling. For another, the de-dollarization process is enlarging, step by step, and particularly led by many major Asian countries.
More detailed info here:
Fitch Downgrades the United States’ Long-Term Ratings to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable
Fitch Rating London, Rating Action Commentary, Tue 01 Aug, 2023 – 17.13 ET
US foreign policy
General context
Great power relations form that framework, where all single particular events, crisis, wars and processes take place in time continuum. There are three bilateral relations, the US-China, the US-Russia and China-Russia as well as the triangle game, which emerge from the dynamics of mutual interaction relationship.
In last 10-15 years, there has been some permanent hot spots in Sino-American relations: Taiwan’s position is the most important followed by South China Sea & “freedom of navigation” as well as the fact that China is the main geopolitical competitor to the US worldwide and for the whole century. In the US-Russia relations, the hot spots have been NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine crisis as well as geoeconomic competition regarding Russia’s huge natural resources.
In the triangle game, strengthening and deepening cooperation between China and Russia in political, economic and military sectors, has been a real game-changer in the great power relations.
The development in the military technology and the situation in the posture of nuclear weapons has been and is such that the relative power position of the US, compared with its peer competitors China and Russia, will deteriorate in growing speed during late 2020s.
From the US point of view, the next 3-5 years (2022-2026) will be the last promising years to escalate tension between great powers, giving the US a competitive edge versus its peer competitors. In late 2020s and especially in early 2030s, the relative military positions of great powers will evolve, from US view point, in deteriorating way giving too much military benefits to China and Russia.
This appears to be the most important single reason, why the US is so intensively striving for accelerating competition and confrontation with its peer competitors China and Russia, even in parallel.
When the full unipolarity prevails in the world (like in 1990 – 2014), the grand strategy of the unipole is the most important variable conditioning both the prospects for peace and the durability of a unipolar system. The grand strategy is also significant factor mediating between the structure of international system and on the other hand conflict-producing and competition-inducing mechanisms.
The grand strategy covers both military and economic issues. Professor Monteiro defined three broad military strategies and their sub-categories as well as two broad economic strategies:
- military strategies: offensive dominance, defensive dominance, disengagement
- economic strategy: accommodation, containment
Monteiro’s recommendation of the Grand Strategy for the US is “defensive accommodation”. This strategy combines a military strategy aimed at maintaining the international status quo (Monteiro’s defensive dominance) with an economic strategy that makes room for accommodating the interests of rising major powers. According to neorealism, the states are assumed to be rational and this recommendation is also based on the rationality assumption.
The US foreign policy 1990-2012 seems to be according to Monteiro’s framework but since then the situation has changed dramatically, when the US selected an opposite strategy of “offensive containment” creating a continuum of crisis and accelerating amount of great power conflicts. In particular, the Biden Administration has exacerbated the situation by accelerating US offensive containment to new heights.
More Warmongers elevated in the Biden Administration
The Biden administration looks set to become even more warlike than it already was, if you can imagine, with virulent Russia hawk Victoria Nuland and virulent China hawk Charles Q Brown now being elevated to powerful positions by the White House.
Nuland, the wife of neocon Robert Kagan, has been named acting deputy secretary of state by President Biden. This places her at second in command within the State Department, second only to Tony Blinken.
In an article about Nuland’s unique role in souring relations between the US and Russia during her previous tenure in the State Department under Obama, Responsible Statecraft’s Connor Echols writes the following of the latest news: Nuland’s appointment will be a boon for Russia hawks who want to turn up the heat on the Kremlin. But, for those who favor a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine, a promotion for the notoriously “undiplomatic diplomat” will be a bitter pill.
In a 2015 Consortium News article titled “The Mess That Nuland Made,” the late Robert Parry singled out Nuland as the primary architect of the 2014 regime change operation in Ukraine, which paved the way to the war of today.
In other news, the Senate Arms Services Committee has voted to confirm Biden’s selection of General Charles Q Brown Jr as the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replacing Mark Milley. A full senate vote will now take place on whether to confirm Brown — currently the Air Force Chief of Staff — for the nation’s highest military office.
Brown is unambiguous about his belief that the US must hasten to militarize against China in the so-called Indo-Pacific to prepare for confrontation between the two powers, calling for more US bases in the region and increased efforts to arm Taiwan during his hearing before the Senate Arms Services Committee earlier this month.
Several advocates of military restraint had been resigning from their positions within the Biden administration, including Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state who Nuland has taken over for. It may be too soon to draw any firm conclusions but to see voices of restraint stepping down and proponents of escalation stepping up could be a bad portent of things to come.
Case “Trump”
The indictment
Former US President Donald Trump has been charged with plotting to overturn his 2020 election defeat. He is accused of four counts including conspiracy to defraud the US, tampering with a witness and conspiracy against the rights of citizens.
The indictment caps an inquiry into events surrounding the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol. The election investigation has focused on Mr. Trump’s actions in the two-month period between his loss to Joe Biden and the riot in Washington DC, where his alleged supporters stormed Congress as lawmakers certified the Democrat’s victory. The 45-page indictment lists six unnamed co-conspirators: four lawyers, a justice department official and a political consultant.
The court document accuses Mr. Trump of a “conspiracy to impair, obstruct, and defeat the federal government function through dishonesty, fraud and deceit”. Each of the four charges against Mr. Trump are punishable by prison time. Obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to obstruct, both carry up to 20 years, while conspiracy to defraud the government is punishable by up to five. The fourth charge – conspiracy against rights – carries a sentence of up to 10 years in prison.
Trump, who now faces 78 criminal counts overall in three different cases, is currently the frontrunner in the Republican Party’s contest to pick its next presidential candidate. Whoever wins will challenge the Democratic nominee, expected to be President Biden, in November 2024. These latest charges mean Trump will have three criminal trials to attend in the next 12 to 18 months, complicating his second run for the White House.
Trump has denied any wrongdoing and argued that the newly unveiled indictment against him is the latest attempt by the “Biden crime family” and the weaponized US Justice Department to interfere in the 2024 presidential election.
The text of the indictment can be found here: Trump Indictment
Impacts of Trump’s indictments on US foreign policy
The criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump has been raising concerns about potential ramifications on various aspects of American governance. Among the most significant areas of potential impact is US foreign policy. Trump’s actions during his tenure as President left a profound imprint on the nation’s global engagements and his legal woes could significantly influence the direction and effectiveness of US foreign policy moving forward.
Indictments against a former President are unprecedented and the legal proceedings surrounding such a high-profile figure will undoubtedly create a sense of uncertainty and instability in the political sphere. The credibility of the United States as a reliable partner in international affairs could be at risk if Trump’s legal battles dominate the media and political discourse. Foreign leaders may question the US’s ability to fulfill its commitments, treaties, and agreements if its former President faces serious legal charges.
Trump’s tenure was marked by a significant focus on economic nationalism, including trade wars and tariffs imposed on various countries. The specter of indictments could potentially affect trade relations as other nations might fear a potential shift in US trade policies depending on the legal outcomes. Economic partners and adversaries alike may recalibrate their strategies, leading to a complex scenario in international trade.
The image of the United States as a beacon of democracy and the rule of law may be tarnished in the eyes of the international community if the legal proceedings surrounding Donald Trump are protracted or highly contentious. The strength of American soft power, which depends heavily on the nation’s perceived moral authority, could suffer as global audiences closely follow the developments of the indictments.
As the legal process unfolds, the US government may find itself preoccupied with internal matters, potentially diverting attention and resources away from international issues.
Diplomatic ties that were established during Trump’s tenure might need reevaluation and some leaders might distance themselves from perceived associations with the former President. This dynamic could shape the course of international relations and might lead to shifts in diplomatic allegiances.
The indictments against Donald Trump will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences and US foreign policy is not immune to their influence. From uncertainty and instability to the credibility of US commitments and global image, the impact on international relations could be significant.
“Out of Africa”
US fears that anti-American wave after Coup in Niger, overthrows US bases in Africa.
Violence in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal) has increased in recent years and several countries in the region have fallen victim to military coups. Now, there is a possibility that US forces (and not certainly French) may not be welcome in Niger, all at a time when “Russophilia” is growing in the country.
The military coup in Niger “completed a domino chain” in a group of African countries, stretching from Guinea in the extreme west of the continent to Sudan in the extreme east. The ousted Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum is an US ally and the coup is a threat to the US position in Africa.
The footage from the coup in Niamey, Niger’s capital, where protesters waved Russian flags, depicts scenes like those during the coup in neighbouring Burkina Faso. However, the coups in Guinea and Mali had different reasons for occurring. The Russian flags do not mean that the Kremlin is behind the rebels’ actions but symbolizes how Russia has positioned itself as the torch bearer of anti-Western and especially anti-French, sentiment in a swath of Africa in recent years.
Anti-French slogans and Russian flags on the streets of Niamey and other cities are linked to the claims of the old anti-colonial direction of Paris. The people of the Sahel region feel strong resentment towards France, the old imperial master that has not brought them any economic, security or stability benefits.
The most popular foreign policy actions in the Sahel region in the past year were cooperation with Russia and not the EU or the US. Closer relations with Russia imply the desire to find an alternative to the West to escape the accumulated economic and political crises. This has created a trend towards Russia, which has never colonized Africa.
Even if the French army leaves Niger, France’s economic interests in exporting uranium will remain a priority. For this reason, Paris announced it was suspending development aid and budgetary support to Niger and called for “an immediate return to constitutional order” and Bazoum’s reinstatement.
The EU’s diplomatic chief Josep Borrell said the bloc would not recognize the coup and suspended security cooperation and budgetary aid to Niger. It appears that the EU will adopt the sanctions on Niger since West African nations on July 30 imposed them and even threatened to use force if coup leaders did not reinstate the ousted president within a week.
The African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the European Union condemned the coup and urged Bazoum’s return to power. For his part, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned, along with the EU, that the economic support to the country will cease if the coup d’état is not reversed. This not only weakens Western designs in Africa but also allows a space for Russia to expand its influence. The recent Russia – Africa Summit in St. Petersburg was a real practical proof of this.
Latest intelligence tells that Wagner Group is moving in Niger for supporting the coup team and Nigeria & other neighbours (ECOWAS) are intervening/or perhaps not, in the Niger’s sensitive situation.
The US & NATO – Ukraine’s proxy war – Russia
People have been asking, how many Americans were killed in Ukrainian conflict so far.
Since the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, the Kiev regime has welcomed several thousand foreign mercenaries to fight alongside Ukrainian troops, with many of these “hired guns” perishing on the battlefield. While the material support the US and its NATO allies provide to Ukraine is openly discussed by Western politicians and media, the foreign militants who contribute to Kiev’s efforts on the battlefield don’t seem to be getting as much spotlight, especially when these militants start coming back home in body bags.
In March 2022, Ukrainian officials boasted that about 20,000 foreign militants signed up to fight for Kiev, with over 3,000 applications allegedly being submitted by US citizens. Both Ukrainian and Western authorities, however, act a lot less boastful and a lot more reserved, when it comes to counting the number of these foreign militants, who got killed in Ukrainian conflict zone.
According to the data announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense in July 2023, a total of 4,990 foreign mercenaries fighting for Kiev regime have been killed since the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, with another 4,910 having turned tail and fled from the conflict zone.
American MSM are speaking about a dozen of killed private mercenaries but the truth is quite different, returned body bags may be a lot more. Some tens of them have been personified and named in American MSM during the last year but real number of killed Americans have been hidden all the time.
I have told in many articles on this website about those Russian strikes on the troop’s concentration points and other key targets of military facilities, where hundreds of foreign military personnel together with AFU troops have been located in the rear areas of Ukraine. Besides these targets, hundreds of foreign trainers, technicians and other military experts have been participated in everyday fighting operations in different places and at different levels. Majority of these foreign experts have been from Poland, America and the UK.
Just take a few examples of the equipment supplied by Pentagon to AFU: multiple launched rocket systems HIMARS, M-777 howitzers, Bradley armoured vehicles, Patriots, Starlink and other satellite conducted communication systems etc. All those systems require plenty of American instructors, technicians and servicemen on site.
It is totally naïve to believe that nobody of them have been killed during this war. No doubt, dozens of them have been killed during last 500 days of war!!!
The key question is that American and Western MSM hide the truth and lie to the people all the time trying to cover the unpleasant reality by telling absurd fairy tales.
In addition, we have to realize that there are a large number of Western Special Military Services and Private Contractors operating in Ukraine like CIA, Navy Seals, Academi and Mozart Group, SAS, MI6 and many, many others. Returned body bags of those servicemen will never be disclosed.
Ukraine’s attacks on Crimean bridges, ports and other targets confirm that in aiding the Kiev regime, the Biden administration and its allies are in fact sponsors of terrorism, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said recently. American spy planes and UAVs (like Global Hawk) are detected patrolling each time over the Black Sea, when Ukrainian strikes are going.
Latest intelligence tells those Ukrainian fighters, upgraded Su-24 for using British Storm Shadow missiles, have been operating from Polish airfields, which confirms the deep NATO involvement in Ukrainian war and the overall permission from the Biden administration and Pentagon.
Here below some excellent articles and videos, I recommend:
The War in Ukraine Was Provoked—and Why That Matters to Achieve Peace
By recognizing that the question of NATO enlargement is at the center of this war, we understand why U.S. weaponry will not end this war. Only diplomatic efforts can do that. May 23, 2023.
Common Dreams news outlet, Article by Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, who is a world-renowned professor of economics, Columbia University, leader in sustainable development, senior UN advisor, bestselling author, and syndicated columnist whose monthly newspaper columns appear in more than 100 countries. Common Dreams is a reader-supported independent news outlet created in 1997 as a new media model.
Ex-CIA: White House ALARMED over Mountain Of New Evidence
by Stephen Gardner , August 1, 2023
Former CIA agent Larry Johnson shares with Stephen Gardner how CIA spying and recruitment works. CIA head William Burns says he is recruiting Russian spies to gather intel or possibly assassinate Vladimir Putin. The Biden’s have been illegally milking Ukraine for millions for over a decade. The white house is trying to cover up for his crimes and hunters, but will throw hunter under the bus to save Joe if necessary. Did the Obama’s know of Joe’s bribery scheme?
Professor John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, the eminent political scientist who has warned for years that NATO’s Ukraine policy would lead to disaster, joins Aaron Maté to assess the state of the Ukraine proxy war and the dangers ahead.
John Mearsheimer: Ukraine war is a long-term danger
The Grayzone, August 1, 2023
MAKE PEACE, YOU FOOLS!
I’m closing my article by presenting some excerpts from the recent article by Col. Douglas MacGregor in the American Conservative.
America’s proxy war with Russia has transformed Ukraine into a graveyard.
The American Conservative, August 1, 2023, an article by Douglas Macgregor
Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin opted for incrementalism in his approach to the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine. Putin committed fewer than 100,000 Russian troops to a shallow penetration attack on a broad front into a country the size of Texas. Having failed over a period of nearly 15 years to persuade Washington and the collective West of Moscow’s opposition to NATO’s advance to the east, Putin seems to have concluded that Washington and its NATO allies would prefer immediate negotiations to a destructive regional war with unknowable potential for escalation to the nuclear level.
Putin was wrong. He made a false assumption based on rational choice theory. Rational choice theory attempts to predict human behavior based on the assumption that individuals habitually make choices in economics, politics, and daily life that align with their personal best interest.
Putin is not a risk-taker. But he abandoned incrementalism, and rapidly reoriented Russian forces to the strategic defense, an economy of force measure designed to minimize Russian losses while maximizing Ukrainian losses until Russian Forces could return to offensive operations. The Russian change in strategy has worked. Despite the unprecedented infusion of modern weaponry, cash, foreign fighters, and critical intelligence to Ukrainian forces, Washington’s proxy is shattered. Ukraine’s hospitals are brimming with broken human beings and Ukrainian dead litter the battlefield. Kiev is a heart patient on life support.
Russia’s attrition strategy has achieved remarkable success, but the success is making the conflict currently more dangerous than at any point since it began in February 2022. Why? Defensive operations do not win wars, and Washington continues to believe Ukraine can win.
Washington discounts Ukrainian losses and exaggerates Russian losses. Officers present at meetings in the Pentagon tell me that minor Ukrainian battlefield successes (that are almost instantly reversed) loom large in the discussions held in four-star headquarters, the White House, and Foggy Bottom. These reports are treated as incontrovertible evidence of inevitable Ukrainian victory. In this climate, staff officers are reluctant to highlight effective Russian military performance or the impact of Russia’s expanding military power.
The Western media reinforce these attitudes, arguing that the Russian generals and their forces are dysfunctional, mired in corruption and sloth, and that Ukraine can win if it gets more support. As a result, it is a good bet that Washington and its allies will continue to provide equipment and ammunition, though probably not in the quantities and of the quality they did in the recent past.
Warsaw, whose leadership of NATO’s anti-Russian crusade is prized in Washington, … seems willing to risk direct confrontation with Moscow. According to French sources in Warsaw, if Ukrainian forces are driven back, “the Poles may introduce the first division this year, which will include the Poles, the Balts, and a certain number of Ukrainians.”
America’s proxy war with Russia has transformed Ukraine into a graveyard. Indulging Poland’s passion for war with Russia encourages Poland to follow the Ukrainian example. The very idea must leave Moscow no choice but to bring all of Russia’s military power to bear simultaneously against Ukraine, before the collective West stumbles into regional war. Make peace, you fools, before it’s too late.
I have nothing to add to this text.