Afghan Déjà-vu 2
In my blog “Afghanistan on Grand Chessboard” of April 22, 2021,
“It seems that China’s and Russia’s strategic cooperation and combined operations, “pressure here or here opens new opportunities there”, are turning out well-functioning. The assumption is that China and Russia will utilize fully in rapid pace these opening opportunities in Central Asia. In this framework, Biden’s decision of unconditional withdrawal can be seen as a fatal strategic mistake to the US, which China and Russia will obviously utilize effectively for their benefit. The emerging vacuum of power behind American backs, will open extensive chances to Chinese BRI and Russia’s Great Eurasian Partnership both politically, economically and militarily. “
This analysis seems to turn out factual reality of today. Both China and Russia are keeping their embassies open and functioning in Kabul and first Taliban statements have been positive towards them. Russian diplomatic representatives will have a meeting with Taliban representatives on Tuesday 17, August in Kabul. No doubt, in numerous previous meetings and other mutual gatherings during last five months, both in Moscow and Beijing, joint procedures have been agreed on beforehand.
Two other partners, besides China and Russia, should be mentioned in this respect too, namely Iran whose political and military clout will increase a lot in this new Eurasian political setting and Pakistan. “The Grand Chessboard” by legendary Zbigniew Brzezinski, is facing now such threat image, which Brzezinski warned about (the US will be pushed outside and regional powers call the shots).
China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan will form a new axis of power in the Central Asian region drawing also the “stans” to their sphere of influence. This will open the bright future for China’s BRI, Russia’s Great Eurasian Partnership and other regional arrangements.