West versus Russia, emerging Cold War 2.0, PART II rest of the world
Two global camps are in the formation process; the East Camp led by China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other allies, and the West Camp, led by the US, NATO and their European and Asian allies. No doubt, the world will face very turbulent and bloody times in the near future. This was my assessment in the previous article and I still hold it.
North Korea’s posture
Russia – North Korea bilateral relations and cooperation treaty
On October 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a bill to the State Duma to ratify the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and the DPRK. The treaty was signed by Moscow and Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. November 9, President Putin signed a law on ratification of the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea, according to the published document. North Korea ratified treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia. The leader of North Korea Kim Jon Un signed the corresponding decree on November 11.
The treaty provides that the sides on a permanent basis maintain and develop, taking into account their national legislation and their international obligations, relations of comprehensive strategic partnership, based on the principles of mutual respect for state sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and other principles of international law relating to friendly relations and cooperation between countries. The sides seek to establish global strategic stability and a fair multipolar international system, according to a memo to the treaty.
The treaty states that in the event of an imminent threat of an act of armed aggression against one of the sides, the sides shall, at the request of one of the sides, immediately activate bilateral channels for consultations with a view to coordinating their positions and agreeing on possible practical measures to assist each other to help eliminate the threat. In the event that one of the sides comes under an armed attack by any country or several countries and thus finds itself in a state of war, the other side will immediately provide military and other assistance by all means at its disposal in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and in accordance with the laws of the Russian Federation and the DPRK.
After the summer visit of Vladimir Putin to North Korea cooperation between the two nations expanded in many areas. In the West they accuse the Kremlin of breaking the UN Security Council sanctions imposed on DPRK in 2011–2016, and the North Korean leadership—of supplying large amounts of the military hardware and ammunition to Moscow. Many politicians and analysts suggest that the emerging partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang creates new significant problems not only for the West or for Ukraine, but also for China.
Relations between Moscow and Pyongyang have reached record high levels in the past few years, thanks to the two leaders’ efforts, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in opening remarks at talks with his North Korean counterpart, Choe Son Hui, in early November.
it is evident that economic cooperation between Russia and North Korea has been rapidly expanding over last twelve–eighteen months. That should not be surprising given the fact that DPRK remained mostly closed for international cooperation during more than three decades. Maybe in a couple of years from now we will see much more Russia-North Korea trade but it is China that is and will continue to remain the main economic partner for DPRK.
Military – technical side of cooperation
As for the military-technical side of the cooperation, we can only guess about the real scale and the breadth of this dimension. In the Western media they operate with huge numbers, which cannot be taken seriously. It appears that all the speculations about “massive military assistance” allegedly provided by NK to Russia are blown out of any reasonable proportion. In reality, North Korea is a relatively small and not a particularly wealthy country, its overall 2023 defense budget amounted to less that USD 1.5 billion. Its defense production capacities are limited by definition. By comparison, only the US military assistance to Ukraine in 2022–2023 fiscal years amounted to USD 52 billion. Any North Korean supplies to Russia would look just a drop in the bucket.
What about a direct North Korean involvement into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? Could it become a game-changer, leading to an inevitable escalation with the danger of a global war becoming more real?
Factually, it is clear that even ten+ thousands of highly trained, well equipped and properly motivated servicemen would not radically change the momentum of the conflict, in which many hundreds of thousands are engaged from each of the two sides. Thus, western narrative of huge flocks of NK troops deployed in Russia, is fake news and delusion.
Cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang in the military sphere is actively expanding, both sides are committed to implementing all previously reached agreements, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said during a visit to North Korea, in November.
According to Belousov, the agreement on comprehensive strategic partnership concluded between our countries is aimed at reducing the risk of a new war in Northeast Asia and at laying the foundations for a new Eurasian security system.
Russia can give the DPRK the opportunity to create a powerful missile defense and air defense system. The official Pyongyang is very interested in creating this kind of system. It is possible that cooperation in this area may also interest China, as a result of which a unified Russian-Chinese-North Korean missile defense and air defense system may be created. In essence, it may be possible talking about the creation of a triple Russian-Chinese-North Korean military alliance. Today, there are Russian-North Korean and Chinese-North Korean military treaties.
The United States is already active near Russian Far Eastern borders and is using the territories of Japan and the Republic of Korea to form military infrastructure near Russia’s borders. Therefore, the expansion of Russian-North Korean cooperation is a response to US actions against Russia.
As to China’s posture, it is not possible to imagine Russia and the DPRK moving towards rapprochement without China’s approval. If this cooperation became possible and was widely publicized, then Chairman Xi gave his political blessing. This means that China has almost openly begun to aggravate relations with the West and has begun to form a coalition against the Anglo-Saxons. What is happening is entirely in Beijing’s interests.
Since the start of Ukraine crisis, when it became increasingly apparent that conventional ground force supplies such as artillery rounds, tank shells and anti-tank missiles would be key to determining the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian War, speculation quickly grew that Russia could look to its neighbour North Korea to help seriously enhance its combat potential. Although Russia’s own national production capacity is massive, the used amounts of artillery rounds and other heavy weapons ammo have been shockingly huge.
While the first reports of North Korean arms transfer to the country would emerge in the second half of that year, the scale of supplies has grown considerably, with a major landmark in January 2024 being the confirmed acquisition and use of North Korean ballistic missiles on a large scale by Russian forces.
Phantom troops from North Korea
In early November, ISW was telling that
North Korean soldiers have deployed into combat in Russia’s Kursk Oblast alongside Russian forces.Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 24 that the first units of North Korean personnel deployed to Kursk Oblast on October 23, following a few weeks of training at various military bases in Russia’s Primorsky and Khabarovsk krais, Amur Oblast, and the Republic of Buryatia. The GUR’s October 24 statement follows recent South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence reports warning of the rapid deployment and training of tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Far East and mounting visual evidence of North Korean troops training and assembling at Russian military bases. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported on October 18 that North Korea deployed a first wave of approximately 1,500 special forces personnel to Russia between October 8 and October 13.
Moreover, Western media has asserted that Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reiterated North Korea’s unwavering support for Russia, including backing its territorial integrity in the Ukraine conflict. During a visit by Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov to Pyongyang, both nations discussed deepening military cooperation.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said at a meeting with Minister Belousov that strikes inside Russia with longer-range Western weapons represent direct interference in the conflict in Ukraine. The retaliatory strike on Ukraine that was recently launched by the Russian government and the military is a timely and effective measure to notify the US, the West and Ukraine, which are clinging to unwise military recklessness, of the seriousness of the situation and Russia’s will for harsh countermeasures. According to Kim, it should be shown to the “US-led provocative forces” that they will achieve nothing useful if they ignore Russia’s warning.
1.3 Million Soldiers Join Putin, Kim’s Troops March To Take Down Kyiv; Zelenksy Pleads NATO For Help
Times Of India, November 30, 2024
However, so far, no single factual evidence is available regarding North Korean troops deployment in Russia, only speculations, rumors, fake videos etc. Obviously, the whole story is mainly made up by the GUR and Zelensky’s team in order to get more money and arms aid from the West.
My assessment is the following: The Russia-NK cooperation treaty, regarding possible troops deployment, is aimed for the future, for the case of direct NATO-Russia war or direct South Korea-North Korea war. However, certain “on-site combat training operations” may come up to some extent, already in the current phase of the war in Ukraine. The military technical-industrial cooperation is going on continuous base.
Enigma in South Korea
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol initiated martial law on December 10, claiming that North Korean sympathizers have infiltrated the opposition party: the Democratic Party of Korea. Martial law was over before it truly started, what happened?
Political background
President Yoon leads the People Power Party (PPP), which clashes against the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) every election cycle. It is generally the familiar conservative vs. progressive dichotomy one would see in any Western country.
The PPP keeps up disdain for North Korea’s Kim family dynasty, while keeping alive the desire to unite the peninsula under one government and one people. The DPK represents often younger generations, born after the Korean War and having lived in a prosperous South Korea with great economic success and opportunity. Generally, the DPK believes that North Korea is a separate nation and they support coexistence and open dialogue between Seoul and Pyongyang.
It is this openness toward the North Korean regime from which President Yoon derived justification for martial law and combating these “anti-state forces.” The DPK controls the majority of the South Korean legislature as well, which Yoon claimed was the reason why his country is experiencing an economic and political crisis that only a militant crackdown can fix.
What happened? Parliament majority wins as President’s putsch fails.
The attempted coup by the president of South Korea against the majority in the National Assembly has failed. The quick reaction of the leadership of the Democratic Party, which holds the majority, has saved the day. There was a struggle over the budget, which the president’s minority government had lost.
In a furious reaction President Yoon Suk Yeol and his defense minister Kim Yong-hyun decided to declare martial law. Remarkably the prime minister of the president’s government was not informed about the step. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was completely unaware of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration. This was because Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, bypassed the prime minister and communicated directly with the president. Additionally, elite military units, specifically the 1st Airborne Special Forces Brigade, were deployed to the National Assembly, signaling an aggressive move to suppress political opposition.
Following the president’s emergency briefing and martial law declaration, the military established the Martial Law Command within the Ministry of National Defense compound, appointing Army Chief of Staff Park An-su as the commander. Despite the defense minister’s recommendation for martial law, no cabinet meeting was convened, leaving the prime minister and his staff uninformed.
But immediately after the president announced martial law the leader of the Democratic Party in the National Assembly called for a meeting in the parliament. At the same time the military and police were sent to block any assembly member from entering the National Assembly. The parliamentarians won the race.
Just 150 minutes after the presidential announcement 191 of the 300 members of the National Assembly voted to immediately end the martial law status. Troops and police entered the parliament but the vote against martial law had already taken place.
Unions announced to go on strike and people came out into the street to protest the president’s step. Yoon’s senior aids offered to resign en masse. There was no sensible way left for him but to concede. President Yoon Suk Yeol announced the lifting of emergency martial law early Wednesday, as the National Assembly voted to call for its end with the United States expressing “grave concern” over the hours-long saga.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff said that troops, who were mobilized to execute martial law, have returned to base in a move that restored a sense of normalcy. The opposition, with holds a majority in the National Assembly, has launched an impeachment procedure against the president.
As the putsch was ongoing the US embassy in South Korea said nothing about the rule of law or democracy. It is notable that the US Ambassador to South Korea, Philip Goldberg, had previously been kicked out of Bolivia and the Philippines for attempts to overthrow the respective sitting governments. It is likely that Goldberg and Washington, was informed about Yoon’s martial law plans but did not attempt to prevent them.
Causes, reasons and consequences
Is there any validity in Yoon’s claims? Have communist sympathizers aiding the North Korean regime infiltrated the opposition party?
South Korea’s president shocked the country on Tuesday night when he declared martial law in the Asian democracy for the first time in nearly 50 years. Yoon Suk Yeol’s drastic decision – announced in a late-night TV broadcast – mentioned “anti-state forces” and the threat from North Korea. But it soon became clear that it had not been spurred by external threats but by his own desperate political troubles.
No one is taking these Yoon’s claims seriously. Instead, lawmakers are pointing toward his freefalling national popularity and multiple scandals. These facts paint a picture of an unpopular leader feeling the power slips from his grasp, therefore creating a scapegoat to justify silencing opponents and overthrowing the democratic process. Instead, it seems he may have just fast-tracked his own impeachment. This perspective is even shared and supported by Yoon’s party.
A martial law order by President Yoon has again put communist influence in the country under the spotlight. For the first time in nearly four decades, the South Korean leader invoked the authority, accusing the opposing Democratic Party of aligning with communist North Korea. South Korea is heavily reliant on China for trade and investment, a relationship that has further allowed Chinese authorities to influence its other sectors, including politics.
Economy, culture, universities, there is no place that hasn’t been penetrated by China. Cities in the two countries have signed nearly 700 friendship or sisterhood agreements. Hundreds of Chinese civil servants were sent to work and train in South Korea through a state-sponsored civil servant exchange program. The Chinese embassy pays for South Korean youths to spend a week in China; it hands them books of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s speeches to read before they depart and expresses hope that they’ll be leaders of future bilateral relations.
Lawmakers in South Korea’s National Assembly voted narrowly on December 14 to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his abrupt decision to declare martial law the previous week, which the opposition has called a self-coup attempt. The vote result was 204 to 85, with 3 abstentions and 8 invalid ballots.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court has up to 180 days to deliberate the impeachment motion. Yoon is the third President in South Korean history to be impeached by Seoul’s legislative branch. The impeachment motion on Saturday accused Yoon of “unconstitutionally declaring martial law,” and oppressing the National Assembly. It also called out the President for illegally trying to arrest key politicians and raiding the National Election Commission.
With Yoon’s impeachment motion passed, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will assume the role of Acting President until the Court’s final decision. However, Prime Minister Han also faces a probe by the police for his role in Yoon’s martial law decree.
A lot has happened since December 3 coup attempt and very interesting news has come out. President Yoon’s defense minister and high school buddy Kim Yong-hyun has been arrested for initiating and taking part in the martial law scheme. Kim has since tried to commit suicide.
Some of the military commanders who were ordered to implement the martial law have since talked to investigators. They revealed that the martial law scheme had been part of a larger, even more crazy plan which could have led to war with North Korea. The Defense Minister’s original plan was to provoke an attack from North Korea, then use that as an excuse to declare martial law. To that end, South Korean military flew several drones over the Pyongyang sky, spraying propaganda fliers. North Korea did not attack, however.
Senior government officials have testified at various government hearings over the last week revealing some extraordinary details about the night of the martial law order. Special Warfare Command Commander Kwak Jong-geun testified that he received a direct order from President Yoon to break the doors of the National Assembly and drag out the lawmakers, but he did not comply. Kwak Jong-geun did not comply with Yoon’s order because it was evidently illegal. Martial law does not include the power to prevent the national assembly from fulfilling its constitutional duty. It is something that Yoon, as a former prosecutor, will surely have known.
Yoon will try to convince the Constitutional Court that he is not guilty of insurrection and should not be impeached but Yoon will have great difficulties to claim he is innocent.
China’s hardening stance
Attempts to solicit US support for “Taiwan independence” and use the Taiwan question to contain China are doomed to fail, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on December 6. Spokesperson Lin Jian made the remarks at a daily news briefing when asked to comment on the report that Lai Ching-te, leader of China’s Taiwan region, has finished his “stopover” in Hawaii and Guam of the United States. Lai’s “stopover” in Hawaii and Guam, was arranged by the US, helping Taiwan expand the so-called “international space” and providing a platform for “Taiwan independence” separatist activities, Lin said.
The one-China principle is the political foundation of China-US relations and a basic norm in international relations. Using the Taiwan question to contain China is doomed to end in failure. No one should underestimate the strong resolve, firm will and strong ability of the Chinese government and people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. As if in reaction to this American & Taiwan action, China began a large-scale military exercise in the waters surrounding Taiwan.
China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun’s refusal to meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ meeting highlights China’s continued willingness to use defense talks as a bargaining chip rather than as a mechanism for managing tensions.Dong and Austin both attended the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus in Vientiane, Laos from November 20-21. Dong declined to meet with Austin on the sidelines of the forum, a refusal Austin called “a setback for the whole region”.
Defense Ministry’s spokesperson Wu Qian stated that the US is “fully responsible” for the meeting not happening. Wu said that the United States “cannot damage China’s core interests on the Taiwan issue while conducting exchanges with the Chinese military as if nothing had happened,” and urged the United Stated to “create favorable conditions” for high-level exchanges to take place.
US-Philippines maritime military collaboration stirs up regional security situation. Not long ago, during the visit of the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to the Philippines, the media disclosed a US military task force named after the Philippine name of China’s Ren’ai Jiao. It is said that the US military is supporting the Philippines’ operations in the South China Sea through this task force.
During the third US-Philippines Maritime Dialogue held earlier, the US agreed to provide financial assistance to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) for projects including infrastructure development, personnel training, and equipment upgrades. According to Chinese Defense Ministry, the frequent efforts of the US to strengthen maritime military ties with the Philippines and organizing different naval provocations, reveal the US plot to position the Philippines as a pawn in its strategy to contain China in the South China Sea region.
In October, the warships of the Russian and Chinese navies started patrolling in the Asia-Pacific region after taking part in the joint naval exercise Beibu/Interaction 2024 in the Sea of Okhotsk. During the patrol, the ships’ crews travelled more than 6,000 nautical miles, conducted a number of training exercises and carried out combat drills, including anti-submarine defense and rescue at sea. Destroyers Admiral Panteleyev and Admiral Tribunts of the Pacific Fleet took part in the patrol from the Russian side. Russian warships will stay in Qingdao until 20 October. As part of the business call, joint cultural and sports events will be held with the participation of sailors from both countries.
Putin Enters Taiwan Battlefield, Puts Nuclear Weapons Between USA & Taipei As China Surrounds It?
Hindustan Times, October 14, 2024
Russia has ramped up its naval and aerial activities near US territory and in the Indo-Pacific, now working closely with China. Recently, six Russian and four Chinese warships conducted joint patrols in the western Pacific, following naval exercises. The cooperation highlights strengthening military ties between the two nations.
December 1, The China-Russia joint strategic air patrol was carried out as part of the two militaries’ annual cooperation plan, which does not target any third party. On Nov. 29 and 30, the militaries of China and Russia conducted a joint strategic air patrol over the Sea of Japan and the western part of the Pacific Ocean. The strategic patrol jointly conducted by the two air forces effectively tested and enhanced the joint training and operation capabilities
The Chinese Defense Ministry announced that the second-phase mission of the 9th joint air strategic patrol by the air forces of China and Russia in the Western Pacific was completed that day. For the first time during the latest patrol, China’s air force used the H-6N strategic bomber. This deployment was based entirely on operational and training requirements. The H-6N is capable of long-range operations. The joint flight of Chinese and Russian fighter jets over relevant straits and their advance into the Western Pacific for air strategic patrols has demonstrated and bolstered the two nations’ capability for joint operations at sea.
Framework for cooperation
Professor Zhao Huasheng, Fudan University, recently stated that “Sino-Russian international cooperation revolves around a number of core concepts, among which multipolarity, globalization, and international order-building occupy a prominent place. The consensus between the two countries on these concepts constitutes an important basis for Sino-Russian international cooperation, while at the same time, the two countries have their own characteristics in interpreting the concepts, applying the policies and choosing the paths.”
When examining the bilateral relations of China and Russia, the above statement is clearly visible in the recent joint conference in Moscow as well as the current, historically high level of friendship and cooperation between the nations.
A joint conference was held in Moscow between the Valdai Discussion Club and East China Normal University. This year’s conference was titled: “Stability and Potential: Russia and China on the 75th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations”.
The first session of the conference was devoted to the topic of the global transformation of the world order and the strategic response of Russia and China. The conference participants emphasized the intention of both countries to create a fair and equal multipolar world, without claims to global hegemony by the United States or the West. The intention of Russia and China to cooperate closely for these purposes within the framework of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries was noted.
Chinese colleagues have repeatedly emphasized that Russia and China should “back-to-back” together meet the challenges of the modern world and jointly promote their values and interests, while Russian colleagues, in turn, have noted that when it comes to establishing strategic relations, it is better to stand “face-to-face.”
The second session of the conference was devoted to stability, development and security in Greater Eurasia. The conference participants emphasized that the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and China is an important constructive factor influencing all of Greater Eurasia and is one of the key basic foundations determining the security of the continent. Russian-Chinese relations will largely determine the general framework of relations throughout Eurasia. Therefore, two countries also bear a special responsibility for maintaining stability and security in Greater Eurasia.
The third session of the conference focused on the topic of “China, Russia and the Construction of a New Type of Multilateralism.” The conference participants noted that bilateral partnership is an important factor in the development of BRICS, the SCO and other international structures uniting the countries of the Global Non-West and the Global South. Russia’s current BRICS presidency and China’s upcoming SCO presidency provide a good opportunity for our countries to compare our positions in these structures, so that the agendas and priorities of both BRICS and the SCO complement each other in order to enhance the cumulative effectiveness of both structures.
The session emphasized that BRICS, the SCO and other non-Western international structures are a community of equals, without the hegemony of a single power, unlike Western-centric formats. This is precisely what attracts more and more countries from the Global South to BRICS, as demonstrated by both the decision to expand BRICS last year and new applications for membership submitted this year.
Finally, the fourth session of the conference was devoted to the cooperation between Russia and China in the field of education, humanities and communications in the digital age. By decision of the leaders of our countries, the years 2024 and 2025 have been declared mutual Years of Culture of Russia and China. Much has already been achieved in this area, and this opens up new prospects for developing the potential for cooperation. One of the tasks here is for Russian and Chinese scientists to develop a kind of common epistemology for analyzing global political and socio-economic processes in order to stop using the old Western-centric narratives.
Trade wars
The economic and trade disputes are again accelerating between China and the US. During its Ukrainian proxy war on Russia, the Biden administration and its servants have pushed China for allegedly providing support to Russia. This year it even started to sanction Chinese companies for allegedly providing “dual-use items” to Russian businesses.
China is resorting to “Mirror Action” – China to block “dual use” exports to the US warmongers. China has several quasi-monopoly positions, which it can use to hit back. In accordance with the relevant provisions of laws and regulations, in order to safeguard national security and interests, China has decided to strengthen export controls on related dual-use items to the United States.
- The export of dual-use items to the US military users or military purposes is prohibited.
- In principle, the export of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials related dual-use items to the United States shall not be permitted; the export of graphite dual-use items to the United States shall be subject to stricter end-user and end-use reviews.
Gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials are important for chip making in electronics industries and for weapon manufacturers. Graphite is necessary to make rechargeable batteries. These commodity items are not necessarily rare but China has plenty of them and, more importantly, is nearly the only country which processes them in large quantities. The reason is that the processes to do refine the raw materials are somewhat dirty and only profitable when done on scale.
CHINA Cut-Off Completely EXPORT to US: US Economy Collapse?
Fastepo, December 7, 2024
Closing words
I will publish the last article of 2024 in late December.
Reformulated Big Picture, Cold War 2.0, PART III
Ukraine case: updated loss accounts and final trends
NATO’s darkening future
Syria case, trends inside Syria and in the Middle East
Reformulated Big Picture