West versus Russia, emerging Cold War 2.0, PART I Europe and Middle East
The Big Picture is getting clear. A new Cold War 2.0, which may turn into Hot War easily anywhere in the world, seems to materialize before our eyes, when more and more proxy wars have been started worldwide. The collective West (NATO and the western secret services) are orchestrating and financing more terrorist/jihadist and other militant groups for coups and other violent proxy operations, right now going on in Ukraine, Georgia, Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Liban etc.), Africa, Korean Peninsula and Pacific region.
New power structures and formations are emerging, which I have analyzed already in many articles on my website, here links to some of them:
February 28, 2022
World order and polarity transforming 2022
March 21, 2022
Cyclical transformation turning into doomsday
April 2, 2022
September 4, 2024
Two global camps are in the formation process; the East Camp led by China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other allies, and the West Camp, led by the US, NATO and their European and Asian allies. No doubt, the world will face very turbulent and bloody times in the near future.
Crisis creating new crisis
If you are looking at the war in Ukraine, the attempted Maidan coup in Georgia or the jihadist offensive in Syria as separate, unconnected events, you are mistaken. The US, with the collaboration of several NATO countries and the UK in particular, has started a planned campaign to try to salvage victory from looming defeat.
After the Soviet Union imploded in 1991 and the Berlin Wall was dismantled, the raison d’etre of fighting communism vanished. However, Russia still had to be treated as an enemy. Why does the west fight these numerous wars and crisis? To what purpose? The answer is simple: Gain control of those massive natural resources located in and controlled by Russia, China and Iran.
During the first quarter of the 21st Century, the US milked the “Global War on Terror” to justify expanding a security state that resembles the heinous conduct of the Soviet Union in its darkest moments. Yet, while ostensibly focused on fighting Islamic extremism, the United States knowingly and factually arm and train some of the very Islamic radicals, the US claimed to fight against.
Georgia Maidan. Aleppo fog of war. Elensky 16% support. MI6 covert action to defeat Putin
Alex Christoforou, November 30, 2024
Europe and the EU in great turmoil
The EU failed to agree on the 15th package of sanctions against Russia. Representatives of European Union countries failed to approve the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, which included the extension of an exception for the Czech Republic, which could import products based on Russian oil, mainly through Slovakia, according to unnamed diplomatic sources. Two EU members blocked the adoption of the package due to disagreements over extending the deadline for European companies withdrawing from Russia, unnamed diplomats.
France – Germany duel
Bitter dispute between France – Germany on industry, energy, agriculture and Mercosur deal is paralyzing the basic political structure of the EU and possibly disintegrating the entire EU. Moreover, making this even worse, far-right, patriotic and nationalist movements are winning more and more foothold in growing number of EU member states, also in France and Germany.
Ursula von der Leyen’s first major act in her second term as EU chief executive is inflaming a severe Franco-German rift and threatening to shake the foundations on which the European Union is built. The European Commission president, herself a German, jetted off to Uruguay on Thursday in an attempt to seal a landmark EU trade deal with South America that Berlin desperately wants and that France hates.
For the Germans, that’s great news. Increasingly frantic about industrial decline, the Mercosur agreement is a prime opportunity to help find new growth markets for Germany’s ailing manufacturing champions. De-industrialization process is accelerating in Germany.
For the French, von der Leyen’s Montevideo trip is anathema. Hatred of the Mercosur deal with Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia permeates the whole political class. The French fear the accord will undermine their farmers with a tide of cheap poultry and beef from Latin America — and will whip up popular rage against the establishment and the EU.
No-confidence vote in French government will delay military aid to Ukraine
The current cabinet, led by Michel Barnier of the conservative Republicans party, was formed on September 5, 2024. Far-right and left parties joined forces to collapse the government, with 331 lawmakers supporting the no-confidence motion in a vote on December 4.
The French government’s departure may slow the provision of military assistance to Ukraine, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu warned. According to him, so far, France has been sending weapons to Ukraine from the French army’s stocks, which are replaced with new equipment from the budget. Moreover, the failure to pass a budget, which was the root cause of the government’s collapse, will result in a loss of 3.3 billion euros for the army, Lecornu said.
The current crisis in France calls into question the policies formulated by Paris and Brussels, as Ukraine has certainly been a key driver behind political actions. The Barnier government was ousted primarily because French President Emmanuel Macron and his circle failed to compromise with the right-wing National Rally party, which is supported by 11 million voters. Similar problems will also affect the functioning of the European Union, where France plays a pivotal role.
As long as political chaos reigns in France, any Ukraine-related decisions will be delayed. It is unclear how French politicians will form a new government, with the current composition of parliament preventing any party from forming a government on its own.
Scandal in Romanian presidential election
The first round of Romania’s presidential election saw candidate Calin Georgescu, who is critical of NATO, gain significant and surprising support, prompting a swift response from the US with veiled threats. The second round could secure his election as the new president of Romania. Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the result of the first round and postponed the second round later.
Arnaud Bertrand message in X-platform (Dec 7, 2024), some excerpts:
Ok, I had a detailed look at the declassified Romanian intelligence documents (https://presidency.ro/ro/media/comunicate-de-presa/comunicat-de-presa1733327193) on the basis of which the election results were cancelled and the craziest part of all this is that they actually don’t prove foreign interference or manipulation. What do they show?
They document a social media campaign supporting Călin Georgescu that involved around 25,000 TikTok accounts coordinated through a Telegram channel, paid influencers, and coordinated messaging. This is actually a relatively small number of TikTok accounts for a national presidential campaign, and the documents provide limited data about actual impact but don’t show comprehensive engagement statistics or evidence of significant voter influence. Also everything described in these documents could just as easily be interpreted as legitimate digital marketing. The documents don’t provide concrete proof of foreign state involvement or manipulation.
The campaign coordination through Telegram channels with specific posting guidelines is exactly how modern political campaigns operate. What’s notably missing from these documents is any concrete proof of foreign state involvement or manipulation. There’s no technical evidence of artificial amplification, no proof the accounts were fake rather than real supporters, and no clear distinction between coordinated campaign activity (which is normal) and malicious manipulation. The documents try to draw parallels with Russian influence operations in Ukraine and Moldova, but the actual evidence presented is circumstantial at best. Also, while the documents show Georgescu’s popularity increased during this period, they don’t prove that the social media campaign caused this rise. There could be many other factors at play – his policy positions resonating with voters, traditional campaign activities, media coverage, public appearances, or general voter dissatisfaction with other candidates.
So that’s quite obviously the much bigger story here: that an entire election was cancelled on the basis of what could just amount to an effective social media strategy. That’s the precedent being set here, where elections can be invalidated not based on proven fraud or manipulation, but on the mere existence of organized social media campaigning that authorities find suspicious. It’s a dangerous path where largely unsubstantiated fears of foreign interference can be used to override actual voter choices, ironically damaging democracy far more than any social media campaign could.
As Arnaud Bertrand states in his highly professional analysis, it is not the question of “foreign interference” but of “wrong election result”. From the viewpoint of the Biden administration and the EU elite, Romania is moving into the “wrong direction” and this must be blocked and prevented.
What makes Romania so important for the US’ anti-Russia strategy? Why is Romania so crucial to US interests that it would threaten to withhold security cooperation and investments over political shifts?
A former member of the Warsaw Pact, Romania is now a part of NATO’s eastern flank and stands at the forefront of the bloc’s efforts to threaten Russia. Romania’s Black Sea coast make it a convenient route for shipping weapons to Kiev. NATO military infrastructure in Romania serves as a springboard to launch drones – such as the MQ-9 Reaper – to spy from neutral airspace over the Black Sea on Russia’s activities and to potentially coordinate Ukrainian attacks against Russian territory. Its status as a Black Sea country helps NATO justify its naval presence in that particular part of the globe. Romania’s border with Moldova allows NATO to threaten Transnistria, a breakaway Moldovan enclave locked between Moldova and Ukraine, where a contingent of Russian peacekeepers is stationed. The Air Base located near Constanta is currently undergoing expansion and is expected to become NATO’s largest military base in Europe. The Military Base near Caracal hosts the US Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense system, whose Mk 41 launchers may be used to launch missiles (like Tomahawk cruise missiles) at Russia.
Foreign orchestrated coup-attempt in Georgia
December 5, A protest ended peacefully in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi as activists withdrew from streets. It was the first day of peaceful rallies since violent protest broke out in the country on November 28. At some point, the participants decided to leave the square in front of the parliament building, marching down Rustaveli Avenue towards the Tbilisi Opera building.
A new wave of rallies started in Georgia on November 28. They were sparked by a statement from Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who said the ruling Georgian Dream party had decided to put on ice any EU accession talks and turn down any funding from the bloc.
The events in Georgia resemble “classic Western-backed attempted coup scenario”. If the Georgian government cracks down on this, the West will scream “crimes against humanity” and ramp up pressure for regime change but if the government doesn’t crack down, the EU-NATO “protests” will soon evolve into a fully-fledged insurrectionist threat to the democratic order, Euromaidan-style.
Georgian authorities have reported that about 1/3 of those detained at the protests have been foreigners. Numerous armed demonstrators have been seen in Georgia, just like on the Maidan Square in 2014. The idea of a spontaneous uprising is just bullshit. No doubt, this is a calculated, Western-backed operation.
The last act going in the war in Ukraine … until the new phase will emerge
The military situation of AFU (armed forces of Ukraine) is getting critical / desperate, practically in all places of the frontline. The massive troops and material losses in recent months as well as wide-range desertion have driven the AFU to the brink of military collapse and abyss.
On the other hand, the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine might be on the brink of an unprecedented escalation that could easily spiral out of control, if Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is correct in claiming that NATO is planning a 100,000-strong military intervention in Ukraine under the guise of peacekeepers. The purpose is to freeze the conflict, presumably by having these troops function as tripwires for deterring a Russian attack that could spark WW III and then rebuild Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.
SVR revealed that Poland will have control over Western Ukraine (like it did during the interwar period); Romania will be responsible for the Black Sea coast (which it seized during World War II via and ruled as the “Transnistria Governorate”); the UK will lord over Kiev and the north; while Germany will deploy its forces to the center and east of the country. The latter’s Rhinemetall will lead the efforts to rebuild Ukraine’s MIC by investing heavily, dispatching specialists and providing high-performance equipment.
Another important detail is that “NATO is already deploying training centers in Ukraine, through which it is planned to drag at least a million mobilized Ukrainians”, while police functions will be carried out via Ukrainian nationalists that SVR likens to WW II-era Sonderkommandos.
White House is currently overseeing a “massive surge” in arms to Ukraine with just 50 days left before President-elect Trump enters office. The US also this week announced $725 million in more aid, which is the latest defense package for Ukraine drawn directly from US inventories.
It will include a second shipment of antipersonnel mines, and comes the same day that Germany also unveiled another $680 million in Ukraine aid. The Western allies have asserted that they want to see Zelensky and Ukraine forces in as favorable a position as possible before negotiations to end the war inevitably proceed. But the prime question remains:what good will the rapid infusion of more weapons do when the real problem is Ukraine’s collapsing manpower?
Zelensky Seems to Know the WAR is LOST
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive , December 2, 2024
Putin’s $126 Billion ‘Secret’ Exposed; NATO, Ukraine, Israel Shocked As World War 3 Fear Surges
Times Of India , December 3, 2024
NATO Umbrella🌏Tough Fighting For Velyka Novosilka⚔️Russia Under Pressure💥Military Summary 2024.12.02 Cold War II❄️ The West Has Initiated Open Confrontation With Russia🌏 Military Summary For 2024.12.01
Russian Defence Ministry reports on repelling AFU attempt to invade Russian territory in Kursk region (7 December 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the operation to neutralise an enemy group, which broke into the territory of Kursk region. Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses were more than 38,865 troops, 232 tanks, 169 infantry fighting vehicles, 123 armoured personnel carriers, 1,231 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,096 motor vehicles, 308 artillery guns, 40 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers, seven transport-loading vehicles, 72 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 27 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, six armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. The operation to neutralize the AFU units is in progress.
The Battle of Kurakhove Nears Its End: Strategic Positions Secured 💥 Military Summary For 2024.12.04
Cold War II❄️ Ukrainian Army In Crisis: Breakthroughs Loom🔥 Military Summary And Analysis 2024.12.05
Cold War II❄️Ukraine Or Syria: Historic Choice⚖️Kurakhove: Final Chapter⚔️Military Summary 2024.12.6
Russian Army Pushes Kiev To Negotiations South Front, December 6, 2024
It appears that the US has stopped Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on Russia. This timeline is of interest.
- November 18: The US allows Ukraine to use American ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia.
- November 19 and November 20/21: Ukraine hits an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, far from any relevant frontline, as well as military facilities in Russia’s Kursk oblast.
- November 21: Russia fires a new missile, Oreshnik, with hypersonic kinetic warheads at a military industrial complex in Dnipro.
- November 23 and 25: Ukraine continues with ATACMS strikes against targets within Russia.
- November 27: The Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov has a phone call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
- November 28: Putin announces the response to the November 23/25 strikes . “I want to emphasize once again that these strikes were carried out in response to the continued attacks on Russian territory using American ATACMS missiles. As I have repeatedly stated, such actions will always elicit a response.” It seems that Russia’s message has finally reached its recipient.
- December 5/6: In another strike on Russia, Ukraine has used fix wing UAVs but no ATACMS.
Since Gerasimov’s phone call (and Putin’s speech) there have been NO reports of any further ATACMS (or Storm Shadow) strikes on Russia!
The Battle For Pokrovsk🛡️Russia Shifted Focus From Syria To Ukraine💥Military Summary 2024.12.7
Cold War II❄️Ancient Prophecy📜The Russians Advance Towards Pokrovsk🛡️Military Summary For 2024.12.07
Terrorist & jihadist offensive in Syria, orchestrated by foreign patrons
The key question is, why is the United States supporting Islamic Extremists worse than Al Qaeda? Why the reignition of the war in Syria. Turkey has adopted a role of double-dealing, two-faced player in this lethal game … or would it be better to say multi-dealing and multi-faced player. What is the goal? Create conditions to justify a war with Iran and weaken both Russia and China.
This question underscores the gross hypocrisy of the United States. While many in the West lump Al Qaeda, ISIS, Hezbollah and Hamas into the same category, the “real jihadist” groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS are pursuing a “global caliphate”, while Hezbollah and Hamas do not.
Most people in the West, especially in the US, have no idea that the extremist-Sunni movements represented by Al Qaeda, ISIS, etc., were viewed by both Iran, Syria and Hezbollah as enemies. But did the US join forces with Iran and Syria to destroy the ISIS-based groups? Hell no! The United States, obsessed with overthrowing Iran, provided weapons, training and support to the ISIS-based groups in order to defeat Syrian leader Assad and ultimately weaken, if not destroy, Iran.
In a matter of days,a compact army of battle-hardened jihadists have swarmed across Syria shattering a fragile truce and threatening the regional balance of power. The surprise Blitz has sent the stunned Syrian Army into full retreat while mostly foreign militants have seized the country’s industrial hub Aleppo and its fourth largest city, Hama and during last days even more.
Erdogan said on Friday (Dec 6) he hoped Syrian rebels will continue their advance against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Syria. “The target is Damascus,” he said. “I would say we hope for this advance to continue without any problems.Ankara has for years supported Syrian opposition forces looking to oust Assad. Erdogan supports the jihadist advance on Damascus and welcomes the ousting of the Assad government.
In truth, the war on Syria has been a long-term project for Erdogan. This latest onslaught poses the greatest threat the Syrian government has ever faced and it is increasingly likely that it will be unable to withstand a powerful and well-organized assault by Turkish forces on the Capital.
Spearheading the ongoing rampage across Syria is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which is an offshoot of al Qaida, the shadowy confederation of Sunni terrorists whose origins are linked to the western intelligence agencies. HTS offensive has been backed strongly by the Turkey-backed rebels from the country’s northwest. There have been multiple reports that Turkey is backing the offensive and indeed that Turkey may even be the driving force in the recent push.
While HTS is labeled a terrorist organization broadly internationally, countries including Turkey and Israel are showing increased comfort in openly working with them against the Syrian government. The HTS has reportedly offered to open Israeli embassies in Damascus and Beirut if and when they conquer Syria and neighboring Lebanon.HTS is supposedly an Islamic militia that would rather devote its energy to overthrowing a secular Arab leader that opposes US and Israeli hegemony in the region.
What Turkey is doing, when aligning itself with Israel and the US and allowing itself to be perceived as the enemy of Palestine and the Syrian people, is alienating itself from its neighbours and antagonizing itself to the powers that will shape the future. By moving into Syria, Turkey enrages Iran and Iraq, two of its immediate neighbors but it is also working against the interests of both Russia and China. Will Turkey be accepted into BRICS after this? Will it be granted a favourable trade status by China? Very serious doubts about that.
It is very difficult to see any gain or benefit, what Turkey is set to gain from this? What can be seen instead, is a geopolitical gun to Putin’s head forcing him to get more deeply involved in the Syrian campaign to prevent a US-Israeli takeover of the region … or get out of Syria and put focus on other targets like Ukraine.
Another strange feature here is, why China—which aspires to a leadership role in the creation of a “new global security architecture”—remains on the sidelines while the Middle East is plunged into chaos right in front of their eyes. China’s ties with Syria have been growing closer in recent years. Last September, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad inked a “strategic partnership” deal, pledging to work together in order to “jointly safeguard international fairness and justice” in the face of the “unstable and uncertain international situation.” Well, China has agreed to help Syria. What are they waiting for? The wolves are at the door and there’s no time to waste.
This is a news from a recent post at the Iran Observer, Timeline before the attack on Aleppo:
November 18, Israel’s Shin Bet Chief met with Turkey’s intelligence agency
November 25, NATO Chief met with Erdogan
November 26, Al Qaeda and ISIS launched an attack against the Syrian state
This means that Erdogan hammered out the details of the attack plan (on Syria) with officials from Israel and NATO. It means that Erdogan got the green light from foreign opponents of Assad. It means that Erdogan is a double-dealing, back-stabbing player who cannot be trusted and who criticizes Israel in public while doing close cooperation behind closed doors.
Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan acknowledged his support for the jihadist groups SNA and HTS on Friday, stating that the extremist invasion was in response to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s refusal to agree to Turkish demands in the Astana negotiation.
The record of international terrorism in the first quarter of the 21st Century is quite clear — the vast majority of terrorist attacks are carried out by groups opposed by Iran. Here is the latest list from the US State Department’s Bureau of Counter Terrorism:
None of these jihadist groups are supported or funded by Iran, not a single one. Despite this fact, the US persists in deploying troops at bases in western Syria over the protests of the Assad government and in clear violation of international law. Rather than join with Iran and Syria to vanquish Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the US is using Turkey and Ukraine as servants to provide HTS with weapons, intelligence and military training.
The terrorists of HTS managed to seize Aleppo with the help of Ukrainian advisers, a source close to the Syrian intelligence services the media. Ukrainian advisers assisted in preparing drones. Additionally, the terrorists used advanced American EW technologies. According to the source, Syrian army communications were jammed by powerful electronic warfare systems during the terrorists’ offensive.
On December 8, the events are happening at the speed of light. President Assad escaped Syria with his family and the Syrian army and government collapsed, when HTS jihadist troops entered Damascus. It appears that behind this whole process are certain key players: CIA, Mossad and Turkish secret service, in other words the US, Israel and Turkey.
The Complete Collapse of The Syrian Army Explained
HistoryLegends , December 7, 2024
COL. Douglas Macgregor: Is the IDF fighting in Syria?
Judge Napolitano – Judging Freedom, December 5, 2024
As Craig Murray, ex-diplomat and independent British journalist writes:
The End of Pluralism in the Middle East
A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world. This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations, the smashing of all alcohol and the forced imposition of the veil on women in Aleppo now.
Unlike many readers, I have never been a fan of the Assad regime or blind to its human rights violations. But what it did undeniably do was maintain a pluralist state where the most amazing historical religious and community traditions – including Sunni, Shia, Alaouites, descendants of the first Christians, and speakers of Aramaic, the language of Jesus – were all able to co-exist.
The same is true of Lebanon. What we are witnessing is the destruction of that and imposition of a Saudi-style rule. All the little cultural things that indicate pluralism – from Christmas trees to language classes to winemaking to women going unveiled – have just been destroyed in Aleppo and could be destroyed from Damascus to Beirut.
It is the United States which is promoting the cause of religious extremism and of the end, all over the Middle East, of a societal pluralism similar to Western norms. That is of course a direct consequence of the United States being allied to both the two religio-supremacist centres of Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is the USA which is destroying pluralism, and it is Iran and its allies which defend pluralism.
In the coming PART II, there will be an overview on important events and trends in the rest of the world as well as the summary and conclusions.