War in Ukraine close to irreversible turning point

That turning point is at hand: either the war will end with a great Russian victory reducing Ukraine to land-locked rump state or it will continue and expand into a war between Russia and the NATO.

On December 16th, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Minister of Defense Belousov attended the meetings of the Board of the Ministry of Defense. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov has warned NATO against providing military support to Ukraine and deploying troops near Russia’s borders, stating that the country must be prepared for a full-blown conflict with NATO.

Summing up the interim results of the ongoing Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

  • The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation liberated the area of about 4, 500 square kilometers and 189 settlements this year. The rate of advance of the Russian military now averages about 30 square kilometers per day.
  • This year alone, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceeded 560,000 soldiers killed and wounded. The total Ukrainian losses amounted to almost 1,000 000 servicemen. The Ukrainian military lost more than 40,000 soldiers in the Kursk region alone.
  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to go on the defensive and use reserves, the staffing of Ukrainian units on the frontlines does not exceed 45-50%.
  • In 2024, Russian air defense shot down 86 Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, 215 ATACMS, 1629 HIMARS rockets and more than 27,000 drones.
  • Over 427,000 servicemen signed contract and entered service with the Russian army in 2024. More than 1,200 people sign a contract every day.
  • Compared to 2022, the supply of upgraded tanks has increased 7 times, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers 3 times, unmanned vehicles 23 times, artillery ammunition 22 times. Currently, Russian troops use more than 3,000 drones every day, and their number is constantly growing.
  • In 2025, it is necessary to scale up production of the intermediate-range Oreshnik missile system and continue work on “other promising designs.”
  • The Russian Defense Ministry should be ready for any development of the situation, including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade.

Putin and Belousov once again announced Moscow’s conditions for the start of negotiations:

  • The realities on the frontlines should be taken into account, that is, four former regions of Ukraine within their borders from 2014 should be considered the Russian territory.
  • The points of the thwarted Istanbul Agreements that include “denazification, neutralization, demilitarization” may worsen for the Ukrainian side. If Ukraine refuses to negotiate, the agreement conditions will worsen in the future.
  • If Kiev refuses to negotiate, Russia will achieve its goals militarily and the Ukrainian positions on the frontlines will worsen

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Times Of India, December 16, 2024

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December 18, Russian General Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov said the military-political situation in the world is characterized by a growing number of armed conflicts in various parts of the world and the key reason is the western desire to keep dominating.

The negative changes called to update the Russian nuclear deterrence policy, Gerasimov told foreign military attaches. Here below the key statements of Gerasimov.

International situation

The military-political situation in the world in characterized by a growing number of armed conflicts in various regions. The main reason is the desire of US-led West “to keep its global dominance based on the rules, which have no legal basis from the point of view of international law.” Tensions in Europe are rising as NATO military infrastructure comes close to Russian borders. “The involvement of the collective West in the standoff with Russia in the Ukrainian direction triggers global risks.” Conflicts are provoked under the US aegis in the Middle East, Europe and Africa. “At the same time the understanding of the necessity to counter the western policy is growing in the world.”

Ukraine operation

The Russian forces keep the initiative and advance in the whole front despite colossal aid to Kiev from the West. Over 190 residential settlements were liberated this year and close to 4.5 thousand square kilometers of territory came under Russian control. Since the beginning of the operation the Ukrainian army has lost close to one million soldiers killed and wounded, as well as close to 20 thousand tanks and armored vehicles. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region aimed at making Russia redeploy reserves from Donbass, but it did not happen. The Russian armed forces have accumulated major combat experience in the engagement of various arms of forces. The aims of the operation will be definitely achieved.

Western aid

Western financial assistance to Ukraine totaled over 350 billion dollars and 170 billion of them were disbursed for military needs. Over 30 western countries supplied military products to Ukraine. “The United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Denmark contributed the most.” Thousands of arms and hardware units have been transferred to Ukraine by western countries since the beginning of the operation.

NATO drills

Russia attentively follows all NATO drills in the framework of strategic deterrence. The alliance held the Steadfast Defender exercise and redeployed major contingents, including US troops, to Russian borders, as well as deployed in Denmark a missile launcher with a range of 2.4 thousand kilometers.

Nuclear deterrence

Negative changes in the military-political situation made it necessary to update the Russian nuclear deterrence policy. Russian international commitments do not determine the threshold of nuclear deterrence. It is “determined by the necessity to curtail the aggressor and neutralize the threats from the potential adversary.” The ground-based strategic nuclear forces have fully completed the rearmament with modern mobile missile launchers. The share of modern arms in the Russian strategic nuclear forces comprises 95%. Oreshnik missile: Russia will react to US escalation proceeding from security threats. Oreshnik missile has been test fired as a retaliation.

Russian armed forces

The staff matrix of the Russian armed forces increased to 1.5 million servicemen. Two combined arms armies, an army corps and 16 formations, as well as two military districts were formed in the Ground Forces in 2024. One new formation of the Aerospace Forces was also created. The creation of the first regiment armed with S-500 air defense systems is nearing completion.

Latest situation on the front lines and estimated losses, up to date

In Ukraine, mobilization activities are facing great difficulties. Since September 2024, the rate of conscription of citizens for military service has decreased. The Internet is flooded with videos of forced mobilization. There is no desire among conscripts to go to the front. This inevitably leads to a decrease in the combat effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Desertion is getting a big problem; almost all the deserters were forcibly mobilized on the street. According to the official data, over 100,000 servicemen have escaped the front line without permission. This further weakens the ability of the Ukrainian state to mobilize. It is necessary not only to make up for the losses in killed and wounded, but also to catch fugitives and replace deserters with new soldiers.

The Ukrainian presidential administration is not yet able to mobilize young people. Such a decision will eventually multiply Vladimir Zelensky’s rating by zero. Experts predict that Trump will demand from Kiev to hold presidential elections. In such conditions, the team of the current head of Ukraine is not ready to make unpopular decisions.

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The Russian Defense Ministry has reported major losses by the Ukrainian army. Especially noticeable are the losses of Western weapon systems. Russian Defence Ministry reports on the progress of the special military operation (25 December 2024). In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 650 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 38,539 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,969 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,504 MLRS combat vehicles, 19,991 field artillery guns and mortars, and 29,490 units of support military vehicles have been neutralized.

Russian Defence Ministry reports on repelling AFU attempt to invade Russian territory in Kursk region (25 December 2024).  Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 43,740 troops, 255 tanks, 194 infantry fighting vehicles, 136 armoured personnel carriers, 1,318 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,182 motor vehicles, 324 artillery guns, 42 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers, seven transport-loading vehicles, 80 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 28 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. The operation to neutralize the AFU units is in progress.

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Calculations of troops losses

The list of info/data sources is large: ministries of defense from Russia, Ukraine and some other countries, large range of media in Europe, America and Asia, assessments and statements of various military experts, military bloggers etc.

This overall calculation of losses requires several separate calculations, then solving a set/system of equations, as well as minimum and maximum points with ranges, using different coefficients (kill impact ratio of various strike types, air defense effectiveness etc.).Finally, there is an overall rationality evaluation, where probabilities of estimates are assessed taking into account of other relevant information.

Some detailed definitions of used concepts and terms can be stated here:

  • irrecoverable troops losses
    • killed in action (KIA)
    • disabled and/or seriously wounded (dsWIA), these servicemen are so badly hurt that many of them will die within next few months or are not able never return back
  • recoverable troops losses
    • lightly/moderately wounded (WIA), who can later return back
    • missing (MIA),
    • prisoners (POWs),
    • surrenders & deserters,
    • others

Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) have carried out, in accelerating pace, “group strikes” on rear areas of Ukraine targeting mainly on strategic targets. These group strikes are made in various combinations of

  • sorties of bombers and fighter jets launching missiles, rockets and glide bombs
  • ground and sea-based missile strikes (e.g. Iskander)
  • drone strikes

One group strike may typically include 5-8 sorties by bombers and/or fighters, 8-12 ground-based missiles and 50 drones. Each of these strikes has its particular “kill impact ratio”, which also depends on AFU’s air defense effectiveness. The estimated number of group strikes: 2022 / 600 strikes, 2023 / 1000 strikes and 2024 / 1650 strikes. In addition, RuAF have also carried out several “massive air strikes”, particularly in 2024.

These estimates below are comprised of calculated data both from the front lines and from the rear areas due to air strikes. In other words, presented figures here can differ from those of Russian Defense Ministry, which cover accounted losses on the front lines.

Based on this above framework, the following result data can be presented:

Mediazona count, updated November 22, 2024. Estimates of troops losses of Russian Armed Forces (RuAF), since the start of SMO: total losses 460,000 from which irrecoverable losses 124,000. Estimates of destroyed military equipment of RuAF vary 10-20% from relevant AFU numbers.

Some prominent comments and statements on Russia – Ukraine war

“Russia-Ukraine conflict is at its most dangerous moment”, says Chinese scholar, Wu Dahui, a professor of international relations and expert on China-Russia ties at Tsinghua University, at the Global Times Annual Conference 2025, themed “Moving forward in Partnership: Resonance of Values between China and the World,” which is held in Beijing on Saturday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is at its most dangerous moment, and the more difficult the situation becomes, the more it is needed for Global South countries, such as China and Brazil, to play a greater role, a Chinese scholar said.

Explaining why it is at the most dangerous moment, Wu Dahui, said that Putin signed a decree in November ratifying the updated nuclear doctrine, sending a signal to the world: one more step forward could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, not just against Ukraine, but against US military and all NATO bases. 

On the other hand, there are significant differences between the US and Russia regarding how the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end. Wu noted that, based on the current situation, there is little possibility of a peace treaty being reached between Russia and Ukraine by the first half of 2025, or even by the end of 2025. Wu said security is the absence of threats objectively and the absence of fear subjectively. The peace is a process of reconciliation achieved through dialogue. Only in this way can there be lasting peace. 

Two American experts, Daniel Davis and Douglas Macgregor also have recently commented the situation in the Ukrainian war.

Douglas Macgregor clarifying what is truly happening in Ukraine

X-media, December 8, 2024

Daniel Davis and Douglas Macgregor, December 18, 2024

The overall international situation is very negative for Kiev. The outgoing Biden administration promises to deliver the maximum number of weapons by January 20, 2025. However, this will clearly not be enough for a long-term war against Russia. Kiev has adapted to the war and Ukraine’s ruling elite lives in war mode. There are no sponsors, competencies, or desire for peaceful reconstruction. The current president has no prospects outside the conflict. That is why from Kiev’s side only attempts at escalation.

The rhetoric of Donald Trump and his inner circle is clearly aimed at a peace agreement. Such an outcome of the conflict is a verdict for Vladimir Zelensky. Now, there are rumors about possible top level meeting Trump – Putin in order to solve Ukraine war. The new US president and the realities of the fighting appear to be pushing Zelensky, who has long insisted on fighting for every inch, to come to the negotiating table.

Support for Ukraine is waning not only in the United States but also in Europe. In the run-up to the snap parliamentary elections, the German Social Democratic Party has added to its platform a refusal to supply Kiev with Taurus missiles. The SPD is also promising voters to prevent the North Atlantic Alliance from being drawn directly into the war. The leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, is characterized by more aggressive rhetoric but even he uses certain anti-Ukrainian narratives. Merz has promised to drastically cut spending on aid to Ukrainian refugees in Germany. Along with the US, Germany is one of the main sponsors of the war in Eastern Europe.

Now, it appears that Zelensky’s last available measures are bribery, blackmailing and terror. THE END IS NEAR, BOTH SYMBOLICALLY AND REALLY.

Kirillov had been a prominent figure in exposing US and Ukrainian activities related to biological and chemical weapons:

  • Summer 2022: Reported on US Biolabs in Ukraine studying mosquito-borne viruses.
  • February 2023: Provided evidence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces using toxic substances in terrorist attacks.
  • August 2023: Accused the US of involving Moldova and Romania in the transportation of biomaterials from Ukraine.
  • October 2023: Warned of Ukrainian provocations with toxic substances.
  • June–August 2023: Alleged the use of Western chemical weapons and uncovered a laboratory for producing toxic substances near Avdeevka.

Kirillov’s consistent reports on biological and chemical threats linked to Ukraine and its Western backers made him a key target.

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WarZone Echo, December 23, 2024