Ukraine’s fate is sealed

In recent weeks, I have updated two articles on Ukraine situation and this one is the third in a row. So much has been happening day by day but it appears now that the factual “final curtain” is in front of Ukraine … and Zelenski.

The “American tornado” in the form of vice-president JD Vance and defense secretary Pete Hegseth put the whole EU and NATO elite upside down in a day presenting “American gifts” to the old Europe, which is fully blurred and confused what to do. But the US kept adding more “outrageous performances”, when President Trump announced to have had a 90-minute phone talk with President Putin.

The elite of EU and NATO are completely upset and the western mainstream media, which have maintained a false narrative of “Ukraine is winning” for the last three years, are in full panic, when their lies, propaganda and deep corruption are exposing one by one (scandals of USAID etc.).

US President Donald Trump’s term in office will change the views of the European political elite in many areas, including the conflict in Ukraine, said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He believes that the new American administration will contribute to changing views both in America and in Europe on issues such as migration, the Green Deal, Christianity, family protection and freedom of speech.

Two different phone calls: first Trump – Putin/90+ minutes, then Trump – Zelenski/under 10 minutes

Trump has repeatedly announced plans to speak with the Russian president in recent weeks. The US leader has paid much attention to the conflict in Ukraine and expressed his desire to help bring it to an end. Russian President Vladimir Putin has held a telephone conversation with his US counterpart Donald Trump, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “It was a very long phone call, it lasted almost an hour and a half,” he added.

Russia and the US intend to immediately start negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, Trump said after a telephone conversation. “I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful,” Trump emphasized. According to Trump, the fighting in Ukraine “must end.” Trump said on Truth Social that both leaders had extended invitations of “visiting each other’s nations,” while the US leader said he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “right now” to inform him about the call.

President Trump has revealed an outline of his call with Ukraine’s President Zelensky, calling it a “meaningful conversation”. He had earlier vowed to inform Zelensky of the contents of the Putin phone call, at a moment European allies are stressing that there can be no peace deal without Ukraine’s direct input and participation. 

President Trump took to his Truth Social account to explain what was discussed:

I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects. We both reflected on the Great History of our Nations, and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II, remembering, that Russia lost tens of millions of people, and we, likewise, lost so many! We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together. 

But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, “COMMON SENSE.” We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now. I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful. Millions of people have died in a War that would not have happened if I were President, but it did happen, so it must end. No more lives should be lost! I want to thank President Putin for his time and effort with respect to this call, and for the release, yesterday, of Marc Fogel, a wonderful man that I personally greeted last night at the White House.

I believe this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!

Just the night prior, American school teacher Marc Fogel arrived in Washington, fresh out of a 3+ year stint in Russian prison, after a successful prisoner exchange. Walz has declared this an act of good faith from Putin. What’s clear is that things are moving fast.

Notice whose name is missing from the list of US negotiators? That is General Keith Kellogg. Kellogg was slated to present Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine next week at the Munich Conference. He may have been pushed out because of news this week that his daughter heads up an NGO charitable organization that, among other tasks, transported wounded mercenaries fighting for Ukraine from the battlefield.

Zelensky Lost: A Historic Call Between Putin And Trump Took Place. 📞🎉🔥📢 Military Summary 2025.02.13

Doomed Kiev Dreams About A Deal , South Front, February 12, 2025

Trump appears to have a better understanding of the causes and conditions of the Ukraine-Russia and US/NATO versus Russia conflict and his tendency to be practical is apparent here. The signal is one of deal making and practicality.

The call comes at a decisive moment, when the Congress is preparing up a new package of aid to Ukraine shortly, with current commitments to run dry in March, as Trump, Elon Musk and the DOGE are exposing the fraud and corruption of the Biden Ukraine project. So, this may explain the urgency of a settlement.

Trump and Putin stun Europe with peace plan for Ukraine 

US president announces that talks with Russia’s leader on ending the war will start “immediately,” after his defense chief warns that Ukraine’s peace goals won’t be met. The suddenness and scale of Donald Trump’s peace plan still left Ukraine’s allies in shock.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the first to divulge America’s position at a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Hegseth told his counterparts gathered in the Belgian capital that Zelenskyy had no chance of achieving his goal of kicking Russian forces out of Crimea and the east of the country and returning Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders. “Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering,” Hegseth said.

He then warned that America will be pulling back from its commitments to European security, renouncing the historic role it has played since the end of World War II and set out a stark vision in which European governments will bear primary responsibility for their own defense — as well as for that of Ukraine.

Soon after, Trump extinguished any hope the cold new reality could be avoided. “I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia,” the US president said in a post on social media. “We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation.

Trump used Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to deliver some really bad news to Ukraine and to NATO. Hegseth, in his speech at the NATO Defense Ministerial meeting in Brussels, made the following points:

• We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective. Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.  
• A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again. This must not be Minsk 3.0. 
• That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. 
• Instead, any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. 
• If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not be covered under Article 5.  There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact.
• To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine. 
• Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO. As part of this Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.

Pete Hegseth’s message can be summarized:

• No NATO membership for Ukraine.
• Europe, not NATO nor the US, must take the lead in providing for Ukraine’s security.
• Any deployment of European troops to Ukraine will not be covered by NATO Article 5 and will not be considered a NATO operation.
• No US troops on the ground.
• The Europeans must take the lead in supplying lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.

NATO’s worst nightmares were realized — Trump will cut a deal with Putin and Europe will be on the sideline. As for Zelensky and Ukraine, the Biden promise — as long as it takes — is no more relevant. The party is over. No more billions of US tax dollars flowing to Kiev.

The points made by Hegseth are consistent with Russian demands, Putin, Lavrov, Rybakov and other Russian leaders. While many in the US believe that Putin has backed down and that Trump is in control, the reality is otherwise. Russia is not going to concede any territory and Russia is not going to accept a ceasefire. Putin and his negotiators are focused on the root causes, i.e., NATO expansion and Western subversion and securing a long-term security arrangement.

The next “tornado” was the splendid speech by vice-president JD Vance, where he was lecturing basic facts of “freedom of expression and democracy” to the elite of EU and NATO. They listened to him in a freezing silence. Everyone should see and listen to this speech.

VP Vance speaks in Munich as Trump seeks end to Ukraine war

Fox News, February 14, 2025

With the return of Donald Trump to American politics, a new chapter opens in transatlantic relations, especially regarding the practice of “synchronization of watches” between the United States and its European allies. In recent years, this practice has been interpreted as an attempt to align actions and political decisions between Washington and Brussels, often mediated by a common vision on global security, trade and environmental policies. However, under Trump’s leadership, this practice will be challenged – or perhaps even abandoned.

The European elite confused

European diplomats seemed unsure how to respond as they tried to process the details of Hegseth and Trump’s announcements. The truth is that, at a European Union level at least, relations with the new White House are so bad as to be virtually non-existent. There was no immediate comment from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; the bloc’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, later posted on X that “in any negotiation, Europe must have a central role,” adding: “Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity are unconditional. Our priority must now be strengthening Ukraine and providing robust security guarantees.”

“We have always underlined that … there will be no decision made on Ukraine without Ukraine,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told journalists. “Peace can only be achieved together. And that means with Ukraine, and with the Europeans.” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said: “Ukrainian agency in any peace talks is crucially important.”

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Ukraine needed more military backing before opening talks with Putin. “Poland will unwaveringly seek intensified military support for Ukraine,” he said. “The reinforcement of Ukraine capabilities before potential discussions with Russia is crucial for our continent.”

European elite seems to live in their own bubble, off the reality. They should understand that  

“If you behave like vassals and ignore your own interest, why are you astonished, when you are treated like vassals and have your own interests ignored.”

France was also at odds with the American position, insisting Ukraine should remain on a path to joining NATO. Earlier, Hegseth had effectively ruled that out, at least as part of any security guarantee accompanying a peace deal. He also ruled out the participation of US troops in any peacekeeping mission and said NATO as an organization should not be involved. “We are very attached to a pathway for Ukraine towards NATO. If there is a peace, we need security guarantees so that it is fair and lasting,” said Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister. “It’s European security that is at stake with this war of aggression — that has upset the world order and means we cannot return to the world before the invasion.”

British officials said they agreed that Europe should do more. “We hear you,” UK Defense Minister John Healey said in response to Hegseth’s comments. “On stepping up for Ukraine, we are and we will. On stepping up for European security, we are and we will.”

Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that European officials were “blindsided” and “stunned” by the conversation between the two leaders. According to the news agency, the Europeans are concerned that Trump will reach an agreement with Moscow before they have a chance to influence him.

The Economist observed that the conversation has intensified fears in Europe and Ukraine that the settlement will occur without Kiev’s involvement. The magazine emphasized that “Trump is in effect starting to normalize relations with Russia without obtaining tangible concessions,” with the future of US support for Ukraine being “unclear.”

The Financial Times, citing anonymous EU officials, stated that Europe is worried that Trump will exclude the European Union from the negotiations while the Europeans will have to bear the responsibility of reconstructing Ukraine and ensuring its security.

Kiev regime is living in their own bubble

Obviously, we are witnessing the final days of standup comedian President Zelensky. Two recent media events, where he clearly stated, some would even say ‘begged’, for a deal with Donald Trump might indicate that he is now in panic mode. Zelensky’s recent offer to Trump for the US to take Ukraine’s mineral reserves reveals a lot about the former comedian turned politician.

There can be no other way to look at the recent media spots. Now, with practically all US and UK media taking the line that the war is being lost to Russia and further reports that Moscow could be planning a major push with one or two brigades, time is of the essence. Perhaps delusional western powers like the UK are preventing any realistic thinking, given that David Lammy, the British foreign secretary recently visited him and handed him a cheque for over 60 million USD and told him that Britain is prepared to replace the US militarily.

While it’s unclear what an army in defeat (AFU) could do with this small change, given that US experts are estimating that just for the Ukraine army to continue for one more year they would need between 50 and 100 BILLION dollars, the British endowment is appearing to a farce.

Zelensky’s problem is how to secure a peace deal and come out looking like a winner. Add to that almost mission impossible is his insistence on “western security” guaranties – read NATO membership – and you can see why things are not exactly moving forward very quickly.

Trump has announced a peace deal to be agreed in April but will Zelensky still be president when it happens? Zelensky is rapidly realizing the trap and just how entangled he is in the centre of it. Both Trump and Zelensky need to come out of it as victors. It’s unlikely Zelensky will be the broker to make the deal happen. Both Putin and Trump will conclude that he needs to be removed for a deal to be made. NATO membership of Ukraine is a joke and cannot happen for any deal to be struck and it is telling that the West still clings to this fantasy.

Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament, said Hegseth’s comments were “illogical.” “The new security secretary should simply start by coming to Ukraine and getting acquainted with the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Merezhko said. “Ukraine can return all of its territory. But for this to happen, more military-technical assistance from the United States and stronger sanctions are needed — in particular, US financial sanctions against the Russian economy.”

The Ukrainian people have a place for serious introspection now. Their country and the entire society have been destroyed; what for?

Moreover, the US attempt to get some ceasefire is stillborn. Russia is clearly and consistently saying any agreement with the West would be worthless. There would be nothing to gain in signing one but that it would be self-destructive to do so, since it would give Russia a false sense of security that the West would exploit.

With talks going nowhere Trump may try to delay a Russian victory or he may want to dump the whole issue to Europe but neither will work. Thinking that Ukraine can hold out as long as early 2026 seems wishful thinking. There will be no peace deal. This outcome of this war will have to be decided on the battlefield.

Ukraine – there is nothing left to trade for more war or a peace deal

When Donald Trump got re-elected the leadership of Ukraine was elated, many senior officials in Ukraine were hoping for Trump victory. President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to endorse the victory. Zelenski thought that he could make deals with Trump: Zelenskiy presented a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump’s penchant for a deal. The US president said that he wanted Ukraine to supply the US with rare earths and other minerals in return for financially supporting its war effort. Trump agreed to take the offer but in return of nothing for it, insisting that the US should have access to Ukraine’s natural resources regardless of whether a peace deal between Russia and the former Soviet state can be successfully negotiated.

There are many delusions in this case. Those rare earth and other valuable deposits in Ukraine which are economically viable to explore have already been sold to various businessmen and international companies. The whole argument is thus a scam. There are no minerals for Ukraine to simply hand over to Trump. Moreover, there is no price Trump will accept to further support Ukraine or to hand it some guarantees.

However, Zelenski forgot about one “tiny” detail, most of those natural resources still left, are now controlled by Russia. Realizing that he’s in a pretty bad position, Zelensky is essentially engaging in a rather primitive form of “shuttle diplomacy”, offering something he doesn’t have to get something that won’t change much and can even exacerbate his situation.

Updated big picture, once again

President Trump took to his Truth Social account to explain what was discussed in the phone talks with Putin.

If you read between the lines above, you’ll note Ukraine barely covered a fraction of the talk, which included artificial intelligence and a host of other geopolitical issues.

Likewise, the only Ukraine-related “achievement” of the talks being Putin acknowledging that “he would like to end the killing”. Trump’s team is trying to sell the phone chat as a much larger leap of progress than it really was. The added declaration that Putin intends to meet Trump in Saudi Arabia was empty ornament, as no urgent date was set, and they were bound to meet at some point in the future anyway.

In short: the talk was the basic exchange of pleasantries and customary political gestures, nothing more. Russia is no closer to any real negotiations and is merely indulging the US new leader in the limelight of “leading the peace charge”. Obviously, Trump offered Putin a temporary ceasefire, which was quickly swept under the rug after Putin declined.

Not only has Putin clearly dictated that no legal document can be signed with an illegitimate president like Zelensky—which itself puts off any “negotiations” until Zelensky is long gone—but the truth is, it’s hard to imagine any legal document being signed with the West at all. Russia has long suffered the betrayals of not only the various Minsk agreements, but endless other reneged ones in the past, from the ‘not-an-inch-eastward’ NATO understanding to the various treaties US pulled out of, as in the ABM Treaty.

Putin and other Kremlin officials have hinted at this before, but signing any long-term foundational agreements with the US is folly because only four years later, another deep state neocon president can steal the election be elected and immediately bin the agreement, if only to spite his previous rival. In such an uncertain political framework, how can any foundational agreement in good faith be signed?

But there are now indications that perhaps Trump will not mind to eventually dump Ukraine entirely. In his latest interview, he outright admitted that Ukraine may end up entirely subsumed into Russia proper. The message seemed clear: Trump doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine if he gets his compensation.

Is a Grand Bargain in the works between US and Russia and possibly China?

Some weeks ago, Donald Trump suggested that he would end the war in Ukraine as a gift to the Russian people. The terms of that peace (see General Kellogg’s peace plan) are unacceptable to Russia and will certainly be rejected. In a subsequent interview Vladimir Putin suggested that the US and Russia should have friendly relations but that they should discuss bigger issues than the war in Ukraine.

Putin did not elaborate, leaving observers to try and guess what the big agenda could be. As known, Russia and some other powers including China, India and Iran are keenly interested in re-drawing the Eurasian continent’s security architecture and also improving global economic, financial and trade relations.

Since the post WW II period, these relations have heavily favored the Western world in general but especially the United States. As a result, the West will resist any real changes. However, judging by the statements of Trump’s Secretary of State during his confirmation hearing last month, the current administration may have adopted a different approach.

Secretary Marco Rubio said that, “The postwar global order is not just obsolete – it is now a weapon being used against us. And all of this has led to a moment in which we must now confront the single greatest risk of geopolitical instability and of generational global crisis…”

At the same time, one of Russia’s leading intellectuals and an advisor to the Kremlin, Sergei Karaganov may have revealed the Russian thinking in stating that Russia’s task was to help the United States transition to the new global order as peacefully. But what could that new global order be and how could Russia help America’s transition to it?

The Trump administration may have clear domestic and foreign policy agendas but they also have a major weakness in the unbalanced US economy and its overhang of unpayable debts. What might emerge from Donald Trump‘s talks with Vladimir Putin and with Xi Jinping could be a division of the global sphere of influence between three main blocks plus a few regional blocks.

Historically, the three-block architecture has long been an obsession of the British Empire due to the geopolitical realities in the world. The same basic idea also shaped US postwar foreign policy. It is the reason why the Trilateral Commission, formed by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger has the word “trilateral” in its name.

President Trump’s surprising initiatives regarding Canada, Mexico, Panama and Greenland can be seen as new manifestations of the old Monroe Doctrine. The idea of a division of the global sphere of influence between great powers as three main blocks is an old model based on classical realism and power politics.

The headline of The Telegraph tells the reality of today and more interesting views can be heard in the discussion with Judge Napolitano and Pepe Escobar.

Pepe Escobar: Trump Fumbles as Russia and China Wait.

Judge Napolitano – Judging Freedom, February 13, 2025