Turning Point came true in Ukraine War
Russian Forces, which so far have been on “active defense” mode, are now turning on the offensive foot along the whole frontline. AFU’s summer “counteroffensive” has been a great failure, even a fiasco, with gigantic troops and material losses. I have analyzed it in many of my recent articles. Russian Forces are advancing now in Kupyansk region, near Artemovsk, Avdeevka and some other places as well. Presumably, the turning point has been taking place in August 8-10, 2023.
Twitter August 10 afternoon, 2023
Losses of Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)
AFU have continued the “counteroffensive”, being started since June 4. The summary data of cumulative AFU losses have amounted up to complete gigantic level in June – July: troop losses up to 45,000 servicemen (average daily rate still a battalion per day), tanks & IFVs & APCs up to 1700, MLRS up to 40, artillery pieces up to 700, military motor vehicles up to 1400 as well as UAVs up to nearly 1000 units.
Number of daily losses pieces of heavy equipment (artillery, MLRS, radars, tanks and other vehicles etc.) have been remained averagely couple of dozens a day.
It is somehow “funny” that Kiev regime asks more and more equipment blaming the western patrons being late in their shipments. The western mainstream media (MSM) has been singing the same false song all year. However, they all fail to realize and recognize the simple fact:
Russian Forces have destroyed the majority of all military equipment supplied by the western patrons to Ukraine. Why is it so difficult to admit this fact, although it is for everyone to see?
Biden administration led NATO (and the EU) drowns Ukraine in a bloodbath, with no effort at all by the US and European leaders to sue for peace.
Satellite imagery of newly dug cemeteries in Ukrainian territory suggests that at least 400,000 Ukrainian military personnel have died in battles with Russian forces after 500 days of conflict.
The graves presume individual bodies buried. In addition, not recorded are the countless number of dead who have been obliterated on battlefields (MIA = missed in action). The real figure of killed Ukrainian servicemen may actually surpass 500,000. This is much greater than previously generally estimated and reveals really horrible and shocking truth.
Another measure is gathered from dismal reports this week in the US media that there have been 50,000 amputees among Ukrainian soldiers, according to the supply of prosthetic limbs from German manufacturers. Extrapolation from that figure of casualties confirms the far higher estimate of war dead.
If the battles in Ukraine have been previously called a “meat grinder”, then it would be more accurate to refer to this war as a “bloodbath.” Yet Washington and Brussels incoherently keep pushing the failed AFU counteroffensive to the “last Ukrainian”.
Posture of the US/NATO/EU block
Equipment deliveries
The West is ready to launch new wave of military supplies to Ukraine, while the Kiev’s military is defeated on the frontlines. The long-awaited counteroffensive failed but NATO does not stop and is rearming Ukrainian servicemen with new “game-changing” weapons for more offensive operation in autumn.
The US assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology Douglas Ross Bush declared that over the weekend the first batch of Abrams tanks was finally approved for shipment to Ukraine. The tanks together with all necessary equipment should arrive by the beginning of autumn. Various sources report that more than a dozen Abrams tanks are already in Ukraine. Kiev will not receive the M1A2 modification but more obsolete M1A1s. 31 tanks are intended for Ukraine. This corresponds to one tank battalion but in the current situation, this is not enough to compensate the large losses of the Ukrainian military.
European allies are also not far behind Washington. French President Macron has recently promised to send long-range SCALP missiles from the reserves of the French army. In its turn, Germany is preparing to transfer long-range Taurus cruise missiles. Earlier Berlin officially denied such a possibility but after the British Storm Shadow system was deployed with the Ukrainian military, sending the Taurus missiles was just a matter of time.
The transfer of the Taurus will expand the Ukrainian arsenal of precision weapons and increase the range of destruction of targets up to 500 km. However, the limited number of missiles and remaining bombers from the Ukrainian Air Force will not allow them to be used, en masse, but only to deliver single targeted strikes. At least until NATO sends its warplanes (F-16) to Ukraine.
“Secret intelligence war” in the Black Sea region
Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets in the Black Sea region are fully coordinated and conducted by the US and NATO. NATO provides not only intelligence data from drones, but also sites for launching naval drones. However, the Russian electronic warfare has already learned to resist the American Topaz and Crystal intelligence satellites, which are constantly monitoring the Crimea, as well as reconnaissance drones. The Eurasian Times writes about this, citing the military sources.
On August 4 and 5, the Ukrainians launched a series of coordinated strikes against targets in the Black Sea: the port of Novorossiysk, an oil storage facility in Feodosia, and the Sig oil tanker. The drone air attack on Fedosia did not cause any damage (the drones were suppressed by electronic warfare, one crashed near the oil storage), in the port of Novorossiysk, the large landing ship of the Russian Navy “Olenegorsky Gornyak” became targeted by unmanned boats (sea drones) and was damaged.
An American warship may have been used to launch unmanned boats, which were detected and destroyed by regular fire from Russian ships guarding the outer harbor of the naval base. After the sea drones were shot, one of them exploded in the immediate vicinity of Olenegorsky. A full impact could have sunk the ship, assuming the drone was carrying a 450kg explosive payload, Reuters reported.
The attack on the port of Novorossiysk was coordinated with a massive drone attack on Feodosia. Chinese Mugin-5 Pro drones were launched from Kherson airport Chernobaevka. The consequences of this US-Ukrainian strike would have been much worse, without the work of the Russian electronic warfare.
Several US air surveillance assets have been deployed in the area: RQ-4D Phoenix and MQ-9A Reaper reconnaissance drones and at least one P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft. The work of Ukrainian surveillance and reconnaissance drones Tekever AR4 Evolution was also recorded.
American warships were forced to leave their location after the destruction of the port of Izmail and were driven at the mouth of the Danube. Under the guise of a commercial seaport, a secret naval base of NATO ships operated in Izmail: on August 2, the port and fuel infrastructure were completely destroyed by Russian missile strike.
The Americans are becoming increasingly active in the Black Sea area. In the past month alone, the Crimean Peninsula has come under close scrutiny by US and NATO satellites. Topaz SAR radar surveillance satellites make repeated flybys over Crimea to photograph and pinpoint military targets. In the past month alone, the Russian military recorded at least 29 satellite passes over Crimea.
Topaz satellites are part of the FIA Radar (Future Imagery Architecture) program, one of the most secret programs of the US National Intelligence Agency, writes SkyRocket, a specialized publication. Topaz satellites are an addition to round-the-clock monitoring of the Crimea and the Black Sea area along with RQ-4 Global Hawk drones.
The RQ-4 Global Hawk is equipped with sophisticated radio intelligence systems with the ability to acquire images in any weather, day or night, even through dense clouds. Infrared sensors allow the drone to acquire high-resolution images and track targets. The drone has an integrated signal intelligence system (SIGINT): it is capable of intercepting and analyzing electronic emissions, such as communications and radar signals, from various sources on the ground and at low altitude in the air.
Observation based on the RQ-4 Global Hawk has one significant limitation – it cannot be carried out directly over the target zone in the Crimea. The drone must keep a safe distance from the peninsula to avoid being shot down. And a perspective image taken from a distance from the peninsula, unlike a vertical one, has serious distortions. To do this, the Americans conduct observations from two systems at once – unmanned and satellite, in order to improve the accuracy of the image.
The Russian response to American operations has been tough. An American MQ-9 Reaper drone that nearly intruded into Russian airspace was already forced down over the Black Sea on March 14. The wreckage of the drone was quickly found, removed and sent for further study in Russia.
Today, Russia has powerful electronic warfare capabilities to counter US intelligence. For example, the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system can affect not only drones, but also satellites, preventing them from receiving images and the Russian military Peresvet laser is capable of blinding optical imaging satellites such as the KH-11 Crystal series satellites. The abnormally large number of satellite flights over the Crimea suggests that their work is being disrupted – and Topaz is forced to re-use for reconnaissance purposes.
Political stance
The amount of massive AFU losses has been a sensitive issue, especially during the AFU counteroffensive, since June 4. Not surprisingly, the actual casualty figures suffered by the Kiev regime’s military are a closely guarded secret. The NATO sponsors (Biden admin & EU elite) are also keeping a tight lip on the atrocious “body counting” figures, because to do so would be an admission of the abysmal failure of their proxy war against Russia and that would entail incurring an almighty political backlash from the Western public.
What’s more, the Biden administration has torpedoed any suggestion of negotiating an end to this conflict with Russia. The European leaders have slavishly followed the insanity of Washington in thwarting any diplomatic solution. The only solution so far has been: more weapons and other military support for definite Ukrainian victory.
The American and European mainstream media have hyped the war in Ukraine with systematic lies and falsehoods. So-called news information has become blatant war propaganda and the origins of the conflict and real battlefield assessments have been distorted and falsified.
It has been clear from the outset that the counteroffensive that NATO orchestrated beginning in early June, has turned out to be a complete and gigantic fiasco. Ukrainian troops losses are estimated at around 45,000 in just the past two months alone.
The Biden administration and its NATO partners have pushed the AFU troops to go on a counteroffensive that is suicidal. Without air cover and relying on infantry assaults against heavily mined terrain, the Ukrainians have been thrown into the battles as cannon fodder.
Certainly, the American and European leaders knew that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would not succeed. The impending disaster for NATO will be colossal. This monster calamity makes the debacle of NATO’s defeat in Afghanistan two years ago look like a picnic in retrospect.
President Biden is seeking re-election next year and the unavoidable fact is he is losing the war in Ukraine, where the magnitude of atrocities is reaching of epic proportions, under the protection of Washington and its European vassals. They can’t admit defeat for the destruction and death and so they incoherently keep insisting that Ukraine wades deeper into the bloodbath.
Besides Ukrainian victims, the number of body bags of western mercenaries and NATO servicemen is increasing rapidly, as I have told in my previous articles. The key reason behind this development is those air strikes by Russian Air Forces on the rear areas of Ukraine.
The latest of these strikes took place on the evening August 7. As a result of the Russian missile strike in the city of Pokrovsk, the Druzhba Hotel and the restaurant Karleone located in the same building were destroyed and dozens of foreign mercenaries and NATO officers were killed. Turkish media has reported about this event, based on eyewitness stories. The local sources confirm that the headquarters of the Ukrainian military command was located in the hotel, while foreign mercenaries were often gathering in the restaurant. According to the local reports, two missiles struck the building. The second missile strike reportedly took place after Ukrainian security forces arrived to the spot.
Winds of Change in the frontlines … and in the media
From Western viewpoint
Now, even CNN has started publicly pondering on Ukraine’s failures in the war, like in this article: Why a stalled Ukrainian offensive could represent a huge political problem for Zelensky in the US
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN, Updated 1:18 AM EDT, Wed August 9, 2023
“One of Ukraine’s greatest tragedies as it pursues a critical offensive that has, so far, failed to meet its own and Western expectations is that it cannot, by itself, decide its destiny.”
By Jim Sciutto, Chief National Security Correspondent, Updated 10:33 PM EDT, Tue August 8, 2023
The obvious failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Zaporozhye and South Donetsk directions makes the AFU command coming up with various justifications for the insufficiently fast pace of advancement. Ukrainian Brigadier General Dmitry Gerega named five main obstacles to the counteroffensive of Ukrainian formations.
The first reason is the multi-echeloned defense of Russian troops in the Zaporozhye direction. According to the Ukrainian military, it consists of several strips of engineering fences. The second reason is the multicomponent nature of this line of defense. It consists, according to the Ukrainian officer, of anti-tank minefields, anti-tank ditches and concrete pyramids “dragon’s teeth”. Thirdly, Russian troops use mines extensively and lay them in such a way that it is not possible to remove them. Fourthly, the Ukrainian military notes, the AFU do not have the proper number of engineering and sapper units and special equipment, which would make it possible to overcome Russian minefields. The fifth reason, according to the General Gerega is that the Western special equipment that were transferred to Ukraine have not yet been fully utilized. AFU do not yet have the proper number of specialists who can operate that equipment, so training of crews abroad is still underway.
Larry Wilkerson: Ukraine is doomed – it was a disaster from the very beginning
posted by INTEL-DROP August 10, 2023
Ukraine was doomed to defeat in the conflict with Russia from the very beginning, and this was understood by all sane people in the West. This was announced in an interview by the former chief of staff of the head of the US State Department Colin Powell, retired US Army Colonel Lawrence B. Wilkerson.
Douglas MacGregor on Twitter: The agenda is to destroy Russia. Why?
August 11, 2023
Lord Bebo on Twitter: an important statement by prof. Jeffrey Sachs/Columbia University
August 9, 2023
The Washington Post article: Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine
By Siobhán O’Grady , Kostiantyn Khudov and Heidi Levine
August 10, 2023 at 3:00 a.m. EDT
The HILL article: Alarm grows as Ukraine’s counteroffensive falters
by Brad Dress – 08/10/23 5:55 PM ET
South Front: Ukrainian Desperate Struggle Leads To Miserable Gains
Video 11.08.2023
From Russian viewpoint
The Russian military will go on the offensive once the situation on the ground becomes favorable Senator Dmitry Perminov, a member of the defense committee of Russia’s Federation Council, the country’s upper chamber, has said. “We are currently grinding up the armed forces of Ukraine. When the moment is favorable for us, our army will go on the offensive,” Perminov told in an interview published on Sunday (August 6).
The senator expressed doubts that negotiations between Moscow and Kiev will happen any time soon, reiterating a stance repeatedly voiced by top Russian officials. “The American masters are not allowing Ukrainian President Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table. Moreover, at their behest a law was passed that directly prohibits him from conducting negotiations with the Russian Federation,” the senator noted, referring to legislation adopted by Ukraine last fall.
Poland is planning to form a joint Polish-Ukrainian military unit ostensibly for security, but with the ulterior motive of occupying western Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Army General Sergey Shoigu said on August 9. Shoigu added that Poland has become the main tool of America’s anti-Russian policy. “The existing risks are connected with the militarization of Poland, which has become the main instrument of the anti-Russian policy of the United States.
On August 1, the Polish Defense Ministry announced a decision to send more troops and attack helicopters to the border with Belarus after Belarusian helicopters violated the country’s air borders. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on August 2 that the idea that Poland has claims to Western Ukraine was permeating Polish society.
On July 21, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin said at a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and the permanent members of the Security Council that Poland could seize control of the western territories of Ukraine by deploying its troops there.
From “European” viewpoint
This tweet tells all!!!
