Scenarios of the Author

On the front page of this website, you can find a section of “Scenarios” and drilling down, you will find “Scenarios of the author” and further you can find “What if, Part 1” etc. The first part of this series is now released.

What if, Part 1

This article is the first of the series covering the Author’s understanding of the outlook of great powers relations in the next ten years period. The approach is based on certain scenarios, which in turn are based on confirmed or estimated trajectories in the real world.

Before presenting the actual scenarios for the future, it may be useful to consider the theoretical framework and some relevant tools and concepts, which I have used for constructing scenarios.

What if, Part 2

This article will be the second of the series covering the Author’s understanding of the outlook of great powers relations in the next ten years period. The approach is based on certain scenarios, which in turn are based on confirmed or estimated trajectories in the real world.

In this article, the focus will be dyadic: on the one hand key external and internal collapse-drivers of the US position and on the other hand relevant recent development processes in military, economy and politics.

What if, Part 3

This article will be the third of the series covering the Author’s understanding of the outlook of great powers relations in the next ten years period. The approach is based on certain scenarios, which in turn are based on confirmed or estimated trajectories in the real world.

In this article, the focus will be on the actual scenarios – Black Swan scenarios and their likely trajectory processes.

These scenarios can be characterized by the collection of “Black Swans”, deviating significantly from those stated before (Western and Russian scenarios).

The time span of these scenarios is 2020s and two key concepts here are “collapsism” and “Seneca cliff “, which have been explained in the first part of this series.

Scenario of One Black Swan: “Present” Trajectory

Scenario of Two Black Swans: “Accelerating” Trajectory

Scenario of Three Black Swans: “All Breaking Bad” Trajectory