Peace in Ukraine – a multidimensional issue
I have studied this issue many times, the latest systematic approach was “European tragedy: peace is lost – the pursuit of peace is untrendy”, January 5, 2024. In that article, the reader can find all important items so far, in chronological order.
During last few days, three significant items emerged: Putin’s speech on “peace terms”, Zelensky’s Peace Summit in Switzerland and recent NYT article of the original text of “Istanbul peace deal 2022”.
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Putin’s speech on “peace terms”
On June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin led a comprehensive meeting with the country’s top diplomats, where the head of state touched upon an array of pressing issues pertaining to Russia’s external affairs.
At the meeting, Putin spoke on the Ukraine conflict, seizure of sovereign Russian assets, Russian-European relations, Eurasian security, NATO expansion and growing global interest for BRICS.
He outlined a new concrete peace proposal for the Ukraine crisis, which includes Kiev entirely withdrawing its forces from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Another part of the proposal involves Ukraine formally renouncing its plans to join NATO and adopting a neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status.
In his speech, the Russian president also noted that Kiev’s Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) remains the only legitimate authority in Ukraine today, unlike the executive branch.
Vladimir Putin’s speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry is a clear warning to the West and signals that Russia is going to shift its military operation in Ukraine into a higher, more powerful gear. Risks are getting more and more significant, if the US and her NATO allies dismiss or ignore Putin’s stark message. Russian President warned that the “selfishness and hypocrisy of Western countries” had led to a “dangerous turn of events” and the world was “close to the point of no return.”
Putin added, “Calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, which has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme adventurism of Western politicians. He also stated that the West had committed “theft” of Russian assets, and threatened punishment as a result.
Putin went on to elaborate Russia’s conditions for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine: Russia would be ready to enter talks as soon as “tomorrow” to negotiate an end to conflict in Ukraine, provided that Ukrainian troops are withdrawn from several key regions. He also demanded that Ukraine give up all plans to join NATO.
“As soon as Kyiv says they’re ready for such a decision and start the real withdrawal of forces from these regions and officially declare rejection of plans to join NATO, from our side, immediately, literally the same minute, will come an order to stop the fire and start negotiations. In contrast with what Russia proposed to accept as a result of its negotiations with the Ukrainians in March 22, instead Russia is laying stake to Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia as permanent members of the Russian Federation.
Notice what Putin did not say? He left Odessa off of his list of demands. This is Ukraine’s last chance to retain control of Odessa. If Ukraine continues to reject Putin’s latest offer for negotiations, then Odessa will be the next non-negotiable item on Putin’s list.
The full text of Putin’s speech, the link here:
Meeting with Foreign Ministry senior officials
Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the senior officials of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
June 14, 2024.
Expert analyses can be found in these videos below:
INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern: Weekly Wrap
Judge Napolitano , Larry Johnson & Ray McGovern, June 14, 2024
Putin Dictating Peace Terms and Ready to Crush any NATO Strategy | Larry C. Johnson
Dialogue Works , LJ interviewed by Nima R. Alkhorshid, June 16, 2024
NATO’s official statement came out soon after Putin’s speech and before the peace summit in Switzerland: the reply was very clear, more warfare!
Zelensky’s “Peace Summit” in Switzerland
I have analyzed this summit already in my articles of June 6 and June 12, 2024. It seems to resemble more “peaceless summit” than “peace summit”.
The leaders of Italy and Germany have strongly rejected ceasefire terms laid out by Vladimir Putin to stop the war in Ukraine, as about 90 countries and institutions gathered at a two-day summit in Switzerland to discuss ending the conflict. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called the Russian president’s plan “propaganda” which effectively suggested that Ukraine “must withdraw from Ukraine”. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed it as a “dictatorial peace”. Putin revealed his terms ahead of the two-day Summit on Peace in Ukraine which is aimed at discussing the basic principles for ending the war.
Zelensky announced that his peace plan is to continue war for at least 4 years until “Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine’s territory, pays reparations and is punished for war crimes.” “If we don’t make progress this year, then we will try again next year,” Zelensky privately told European leaders, according to a European diplomat who was present. His hold of power in Ukraine now rests on continuation of the war in spite of devastating consequences to Ukraine. New York Times article of June 15 confirms this situation. In other words, Zelensky decided to stay in power until the last Ukrainian or until he was removed and why wouldn’t he like the war – he’s stuffing his pockets with money made with Ukrainian blood.
Discussions during the two-day conference on Ukraine in Burgenstock, Switzerland, have demonstrated that there are different points of view on this matter, Swiss President Viola Amherd said. “Further steps are needed to achieve that goal. Switzerland is ready to continue to play an active role in this process of dialogue,” she stressed, adding that she is convinced that this conference will be followed by other forums geared toward settling the conflict in Ukraine.
The final communique of the conference was supported by 80 out of 91 participating countries, 11 countries participating in the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland did not support the final declaration – the organizers report. Among those who refused to sign the document were the countries of the Global South: Armenia, Brazil, China (absent), India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Qatar, South Africa, the UAE.
HOW DID ZELENSKY’S “PEACE SUMMIT” END?
The result was near-to-nothing. The same people came, performed the same rituals about Russia, Putin and the 1991 borders. The main players either did not come at all, like China, or participated nominally and refused to sign the declaration, like Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa and without them, the West cannot change the situation on the world stage. Kiev’s idea “now we will form global demands and present them to Russia, which will be forced to surrender” after the summit looks even more ridiculous than before it began. The most important points were not even discussed.
The statement that everything is just beginning and we will soon convene a new summit is completely nonsense. There are even fewer people willing to come to such a meaningless meeting again and Putin’s peace proposal was repeatedly rejected by both Zelensky and his curators.
According to the review of international media, Zelenski’s Summit has failed. Here below some examples of headlines, more available in Politico, AFP, WJS, Sky News, CNN, Telegraph, India Today etc.
Perhaps the most “dramatic” events of the summit can be found in those two pictures below.
The final communiqué of Swiss “Summit on Peace in Ukraine” is basically 6 out of the 12 points of China’s February 2023 “Peace plan”. Those points of common cover:
- To base the resolution of the conflict on the UN Charter
- Asking that all prisoners of war and detainees should be released
- Calling for nuclear plants to be safe and stating that nuclear weapons shouldn’t be used
- Asking that food security and supply chains be maintained and be weaponized
Those points, the Chinese peace plan covers but the Swiss plan doesn’t:
- A call for a cessation of hostilities
- A call to resume peace talks.
- A call to “abandon the Cold War mentality”
- A call to resolve the humanitarian crisis.
- An agreement to remove “unilateral sanctions”
- An agreement to support post-conflict reconstruction
There is almost a year and a half, when the Chinese Peace Plan came out but which the West rejected immediately out of hand and ironically criticized as being “vague” even though the outcome of this Swiss summit is now far vaguer. In fact, it’s so vague it removed all the aspects of the Chinese plan that actually proposed a path to a sustainable peace process.
The final declaration included a clause on the need to involve “all parties” in the negotiations, which can be interpreted as a desire to involve the Russian Federation in future summits. This was stated by many participants of the summit (primarily from the countries of the “global South”). Zelensky also said about his desire to see Russia at the second summit, saying that Russia’s presence there would mean that it “wants peace.”
But given the complete discrepancy in the positions of the parties regarding how they see the end of the war, it is still very early to talk about any negotiations. These positions may become closer under the influence of two factors: the situation on the battlefield and / or coordinated pressure on both belligerents by their key international partners. And only in the case of such a convergence of positions will real negotiations become possible. The war will continue until the destruction of the Ukrainian forces have been completed.
As a dot on i, the member of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Yevgeny Shevchenko said it out loud:
NYT article of original text of “Istanbul peace deal”
For the first time, a full text of the draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022 was published online. Some aspects of this document emerged earlier but most of the content has not been previously disclosed. The text was released by New York Times (NYT) ahead of the summit on Ukraine in Switzerland, which has no real prospects of changing anything because its participants prefer to ignore the reality.
A day earlier, on June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined actual conditions for resolving the conflict on which Russia is ready to talk about. Putin noted that the situation has changed since 2022 and the current offer is the best Kiev is going to get now. The next proposal, if it appears, will be even worse for Kyiv.
In this light, it is interesting to look at the draft treaty from 2022. Thus, it will be possible to compare it with the recent proposals by Russia. A text of the draft Ukraine-Russia treaty from April 2022: here is the link to the full text.
The follow-up question, now after 2 years of war, where over 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers have already been killed: Was it worth to fight this war … or would it be better to be accepted the treaty and live in peace?
Comprehensions and analyses of top experts on the subject “peace in Ukraine”
Jeffrey Sachs with probably the smartest and most accurate assessment of the Ukraine war, and American foreign policy more broadly, ever caught on tape. JS interviewed by Tucker Carlson May 28, 2024
End of the Liberal Order & Return of War – John Mearsheimer, June 7, 2024
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs on Ukraine, Gaza & Taiwan: The US is Risking ALL OUT WAR with Russia & China , June 15, 2024
Col. Black: NATO Is Preparing For a Nuclear Strike on Russia, And Russia Knows It
Schiller Institute, Col. Black interviewed by Mike Billington, June 15. 2024
Prof. Johannes Varwick (Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg) zum Ukraine-Krieg | 14.06.2024
phoenix , June 15, 2024
the President of Serbia, warning a war
Based on all above-mentioned statements, facts and processes, it appears highly likely that the war goes on to the bitter end in Ukraine, to the last Ukrainian. In other words, the war will end, when the other part of the war will be totally annihilated and destroyed.