Multifaceted trends in the Middle East
Situation is very dynamic and multifaceted changes are taking place in accelerating pace. The rebels’ takeover of Syria marks a tectonic shift in the Middle East that leaves major regional and international powers uncertain how to react.
Prof. John Mearsheimer on the Fall of Assad: Syria Will Be in CHAOS For the Forseeable Future
Afshin Rattansi’s Going Underground, December 13, 2024
Syria – HTS
After the fall of Assad’s regime, Syria’s new ruling power, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is working to solidify its control over the country despite facing many challenges and threats. HTS leader is Muhammad al-Jolani, internationally banned and well-known terrorist. On December 9, Mohammed al-Bashir was appointed as Syria’s new interim prime minister until March 1 of next year. The first task of the government was to confront instability and tensions created by the surprising fall of the Assad regime. The HTS-led Military Operation Department (MOD) stepped up its efforts to secure the territories formerly ruled by the Assad regime, especially the capital, Damascus and the cities of Hama, Homs, Tartus and Latakia.
Syria’s New Government Solidifies Control
South Front, December 12, 2024
The MOD also worked to expand its controls within Syria, heading east towards the city of Deir Ezzor, which was handed over the now dissolved Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) just before Assad fell. On December 10, MOD forces captured Deir Ezzor city. The SDF was forced to withdraw as a result of mass protests. The United States, the main backer of the SDF, also refused to protect the group’s new territories. Besides the city of Deir Ezzor, the MOD took control of several towns in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor and all the towns in the southern countryside on the western bank of the Euphrates River down to the al-Qa’im crossing on the border with Iraq.
Overall, Syria is still far from being stable. The new government will have to deal with many challenges, first and foremost the ones coming from Israel, before it could even address key issues like economy, security and social stability. All of this will not likely be possible, if HTS refused to share power.
Dec 14, Speech by HTS leader Muhammad al Jolani. His first speech was moderate.
“What happened in Syria is a victory over the dangerous Iranian project in the region. We have systemic plans to combat the deliberate destruction caused by the overthrown regime. We gave the Russians the opportunity to reconsider their relations with the Syrian people. We have no hostility towards Iranian society. We are communicating with Western embassies and are negotiating with Great Britain about restoring its representation in Damascus. We do not intend to enter into conflict with Israel. Most ambassadors remained in their posts. We will end the production of Captagon in Syria. The form of government is left to the discretion of experts and lawyers, and the decision is made by the Syrian people. We will form committees and councils to review the constitution. The Ministry of Defense will disband all groups and there will be no weapons outside the jurisdiction of the Syrian state. There is a difference between the Kurdish community and the PKK organization. The Israelis have clearly crossed the line in Syria, which threatens an unjustified escalation in the region. Diplomatic solutions are the only way to ensure security and stability.”
However, fighting in Homs has significantly escalated, with the Syrian Arab Army resistance cell inflicting very high losses on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The situation in Al-Mazza, Damascus, has gone out control and the number of protesters is increasing moment by moment. Several minority groups are protesting, fearing their position.
Israel – Hamas – Hizbollah – Iran
After the Israeli army destroyed Hamas’s military capability in Gaza, it has also succeeded in decisively weakening Hizbollah’s military capabilities. The state of Liban is already in turmoil. Now, attention has turned to Syria.
The biggest threat to Syria’s new government remains Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continues to advance in the governorate of al-Qunitra, with its forces reportedly entering the Druze town of Hader by December 11. Israeli troops also pushed deeper into the governorate of Rif Dimashq, reaching the town of Dimas, which is located a few kilometers to the west of the capital Damascus. In addition, the Israeli Air Force intensified its strikes on SAA equipment and bases. 70 to 80% of the country’s capabilities were reported destroyed.
Dec 13, article of WSJ: “Trump May Offer Israel to Bomb Iran’s Nuclear Facilities”, Journalist Khayal Muazzin: If the information about Trump’s intention to propose to Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities is true, it is a flagrant disregard for international law and an act of undeclared war. Such a decision would not only be an act of aggression against Iran, but also a threat to global security.
Dec 13, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that he had ordered the military to prepare to stay atop the Syrian side of Mount Hermon during the coming winter months as Israel aims to prevent the border region from falling into the wrong hands following the surprising collapse of the Assad regime. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched an operation in Syria just a few hours after the fall of the regime, occupying all of the buffer zone along the Golan Heights and launching hundreds of strikes against the bases and equipment of the now-dissolved Syrian Arab Army.
By destroying almost all of Syria’s military equipment and beginning the process of occupying the entire south of Syria, Netanyahu and his government appear to have decided to bring to life the old project called “Greater Israel.” This means that the West Bank, Syria and even Jordan will be targeted and the annexation of these lands is considered a matter of time.
In a statement, Katz said that “due to what is happening in Syria, there is a huge security importance to our holding of the Hermon peak and everything must be done to ensure the IDF’s preparations in the area, to allow the troops to stay there in the difficult weather conditions.”
He ordered the move during an assessment he held a day earlier with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and other top officers.
The leader of HTS al Jolani has made statements on nearly anything but there is not a word about the Israeli invasion. Things got to the point that, the elders of the Druze community in the village of Hader (Quneitra province) issued a statement that they preferred to live under Israeli occupation rather than exist under the rule of Tahrir al-Sham.
Israel and the United States continue to expand their military presence in Syria, taking advantage of the new situation in the war-torn country. It’s worth noting that the IDF invaded Syria just hours after the fall of the Assad regime on December 8. In later days, it advanced in al-Quneitra as well as in the nearby governorates of Daraa and Rif Dimashq. In addition, hundreds of Israeli strikes hit the bases and equipment of the now dissolved Syrian Arab Army all over the country. The new Syrian government, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), condemned Israel’s moves, but took no actions.
It is possible to assume what is the reason for the total passivity of Ahmed al-Sharaa (al Jolani) in relation to Israel. What if some agreement was previously concluded between yesterday’s Jabhat Nusra (ex-HTS) and the US Republicans, according to which HTS, being a “strategic asset” of the Americans, refuses to fight Israel in exchange for recognition of legitimacy in the eyes of the international community? We will soon find out what lies behind al-Jolani’s silence regarding the Israeli intervention.
According to the the statements of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, they openly supported Hamas’s operation – the “al-Aqsa flood” in Israel. But if Muhammad al-Julani does not yet feel competition with the Brotherhood, he is clearly concerned about Turkish criticism. Ibrahim Kalın, who is a Turkish bureaucrat and currently the director of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), recently visited Damascus and is apparently deeply engaged in Syrian affairs. Ibrahim Kalin is closely connected to the IRGC and was once an active supporter of the legendary Imam Khomeini.
Turkey & proxies – Kurds
Overall, Syria is still far from being stable. Israel’s expansion poses serious threats to the country’s unity. The future of the country will likely be determined in the upcoming few weeks. Any attempt by any side to dominate and rule alone will likely lead to trouble. The situation is rapidly becoming more complicated.
Turkish forces are invading Kurdish territory in northeast Syria. Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, released the following statement: “The current goal is to eliminate the organization PKK and YPG in Syria. Either this organization dissolves itself or we will destroy it.” It remains to be seen if the US, which is based on Kurdish territory, will provide aid, including military support, to the Kurds, or step away and let the Turks finish them off. It seems that the Russians are sitting in front of a roaring fire and watching the unfolding chaos.
Meanwhile, in northern and eastern Syria clashes between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) came to a temporary halt.
In addition, the command of the SDF, which is backed by the US, has voiced its openness to hold talks with the new government in Damascus.
While Turkish officials are actively visiting Damascus, in northeastern Syria, pro-Turkish formations have begun the second phase of the fight against the PKK. The main target of the national Syrian army is Manbij, Kobani and up to Raqqa. However, Erdogan is adamant, “the PKK has no place in the future Syria,” the Turkish president says.
The so-called “Democratic Forces of Syria”, knowing about the tactical alliance between Tahrir al-Sham and the Turks, are trying to find a gap between them, playing the dialogue card specifically with Damascus, ignoring Turkey, in response to which the former leader of the local al-Qaeda assures that “the Kurds are part of Syria, but the PKK must leave.” However, the Tahrir al-Sham forces were not seen as part of the SNA in the north-east of the country.
Israel also does not want to be on the sidelines on the Kurdish issue. Its priority is to provide all necessary support to the PKK-YPG. Since the “Israelis” see them as the main ally in the common fight against Iran and Turkey. The Kurds are encouraged by the IDF support, since “Israel” occupies a key place in Trump’s cabinet.
In a surprise move, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched on December 23 an offensive against the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. The United States, the main backer of the SDF, deployed large forces near Kobani in the days leading to the offensive. The SDF’s surprise offensive came amid reports of Turkish plans to launch an invasion into Syria in the direction of Kobani. While the group made gains, Ankara could use the offensive as a pretext to launch its offensive. The intervention of the Turkish Air Force could quickly change the balance in favor of the SNA.
After Assad’s fall, more turmoil
HTS appears to be open to talks with all sides in Syria. Nevertheless, the Islamist group will not likely accept the SDF’s demand for a federal system or oppose Ankara’s will.
While the fall of the Assad regime has brought the conflict in Syria closer to its end, violence continues in the war-torn country with a surge in crimes and reports of violations by the new authorities. All in all, the new government in Syria, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, is still struggling to secure the country as well as to gain the trust of the locals, especially minorities. The future of Syria appears to be uncertain and the conflict may be far from being over.
Foreign Interference Threatens Syria
South Front video, December 25, 2024
South Front video, December 27, 2024
While Israel is advancing in southern Syria, the US is increasing its military presence in the northeastern region of the country. Between December 21 and 22, the SOHR reported the arrival of large US reinforcements, including more than 60 vehicles, to territories held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria. A US convoy was seen later on December 22 heading towards the town of Kobani in the eastern Aleppo countryside, a flashpoint between the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
The latest moves by the U.S. indicate that Washington is determined to back the SDF, its main proxy in Syria, despite ongoing preparations by Turkey to move against the group. Kurdish officials have been in talks with HTS to ease the situation. However, everything indicates that a Turkish-led invasion of Kurdish-held territories is imminent.
All in all, Israeli operations in southern Syria and the recent moves by the US in the northeast of the country will further destabilize the situation there. Both powers do not appear to be planning to leave Syria any time soon. This will pose a serious challenge to the new government.
Thousands of residents of the Syrian cities of Hama, Homs, Latakia and Tartus held protests against the new regime established in the country. People protested against the recent series of atrocities committed by the rebels after they took power. Syria’s Christians have held protests on the streets after members of the groups that seized power in the country torched a Christmas tree in the town. The incident has stirred anger among local residents, who view the act as a deliberate attack on their community and religious identity. Civilians, including members of ethnic and religious minorities, have been killed and religious sites desecrated. Security forces controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham responded with force, opening fire on the protesters. Dozens of people were reportedly killed and wounded in the shooting.
In general, the vast majority of such crimes are not committed by Syrian Arabs among the HTS, but by foreigners. Most of them come from Central Asia, Turkey and Afghanistan. Whether the HTS leadership can handle the situation remains to be seen. But it is clear that what happens in Syria will have a direct impact on the internal situation in European countries in 2025. Refugees from Africa will look like angels to Europeans compared to radical jihadists who have tasted blood and experienced a sense of impunity.
The important fact is that media outlets serving the interests of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham tried to argue that former servicemen of the SAA were behind the crime because they want to destabilize the situation in the country. Media resources loyal to the current Syrian regime does not hide their delight at these developments. Moreover, some of them even criticize Abu Muhammad al-Julani for his allegedly soft approach to Alawites, Kurds and Christians. Western countries, who were first to praise the fall of Assad-led government as well as ‘moderate approaches’ of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, prefer to ignore the crimes and chaos developing in Syria.
Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen
Houthis have continued missile and other strikes both in Israel, on vessel targets in Red Sea area and Gulf of Aden. Now they allege having attacked US aircraft carrier in Red Sea, shot down US fighter jet. According to the Houthi spokesman, the strike on US vessels was delivered with the use of “eight cruise missiles and 17 drones”
December 22, The Houthis from Yemen’s rebel Ansar Allah movement attacked the US USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the Red Sea, shooting down an F/A-18 fighter jet, the movement’s military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said.
During the Houthi attack, “most of the enemy warplanes left the Yemeni airspace” to defend the aircraft carrier in the international waters of the Red Sea, Sarea said, adding that following the attack, the US aircraft carrier retreated to the norther part of the Red Sea.
On Saturday evening, the Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital city of Sana had come under a massive air attack. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US military targeted Houthi command centers and missile depots in the city. They also shot down several Houthi drones and an anti-ship cruise missile. Later, CENTCOM said that the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, which is part of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, mistakenly fired on and hit an F/A-18 fighter jet flying off the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier. Both pilots were rescued with one of them sustaining minor injuries.
Following the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis warned that they would launch strikes on Israeli territory while barring ships associated with the Jewish state from passing through the waters of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait until Tel Aviv ceased its military operation against Palestinian radical group Hamas in the embattled enclave. Since mid-November, dozens of civilian ships have been attacked by the Houthi in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
In response to Ansar Allah’s actions, the US authorities announced the creation of an international coalition and preparations for an operation codenamed Prosperity Guardian, expected to ensure freedom of navigation and protection of ships in the Red Sea. Since then, the United States and the United Kingdom have been regularly delivering strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
The recent claim by Yemen’s Houthi movement that they successfully shot down an American F-18 fighter jet over the Red Sea has generated significant controversy and skepticism, particularly in the United States. Predictably, the Pentagon has issued an immediate denial of the incident. However, given the Pentagon’s long-standing reputation for issuing misleading statements—ranging from the fabricated weapons of mass destruction narrative that justified the Iraq War to minimizing U.S. casualties and setbacks in Afghanistan and Ukraine—serious doubts surround its reliability as a source of information.
Houthis Take Conflict With Israel To New Level
South Front video, December 23, 2024
The Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen have escalated their attacks against Israel in support of the Gaza Strip in recent days. The escalation from Yemen came amid a ceasefire in Lebanon that saw Hezbollah leaving the battle for Gaza as well as after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria which was without a doubt a blow to Iran and its allies in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and the Houthis will likely see more escalation. Recent reports in Israeli media suggest that the IDF will launch more strikes against Yemen and could even target Iran. On the other side, the Houthis will not likely back down before the war on Gaza is over.
Changes in great power positions
Russia
In the beginning of Syrian collapse, while Israel was working to expand its control in Syria, Russia appears to be preparing for the worst. On December 13, large convoys of Russian forces, including units from the National Guards -Rosgvardiya-, withdrew from the capital, Damascus, as well as the governorate of Homs towards the coast. The Russian bases in Tartus port and Khmeimim airport remained operational. However, all surrounding areas are held by the rebels.
New Caliph of al-Sham has proposed to the Russians a restart in their relationship. So, the Russian bases may remain and the Russian Army will enjoy immunity. No one knows yet what Moscow gave him – and Turkiye – in return. Western msm wrote big headlines: Russia’s catastrophe, Russia is the biggest loser etc. Remains to be seen.
Withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, satellite images show two Russian Air Force An-124 transport aircraft have landed at the Khmeimim airbase and are ready to be loaded. The S-400 air defense missile systems and several Ka-52 helicopters will reportedly be transported by these aircraft from Syria to Russia. Judging by the latest Russian troop movements in Syria, it appears that some kind of process of withdrawing Russian bases has begun, with equipment being shipped to Russia from the Khmeimim base using Il-76MD and An-124 aircraft.
Dec 11, The main thing from Dmitry Peskov’s statements: The Kremlin does not disclose the number of Russian troops in Syria, this is a matter for the Ministry of Defence; The Kremlin hopes the situation in Syria will stabilize as soon as possible; Israel’s strikes on Syria are unlikely to help stabilize the situation there; Putin will make several international phone calls on 11 December.
Dec 13, In Syria, there is a major redeployment of Russian troops towards two key bases – Khmeimim and Tartus. Let us recall that yesterday many resources reported that Russia is close to reaching an agreement with the new leadership of Syria on maintaining two military bases in this Middle Eastern country.
Now, at the end of December, it seems that both the current Syrian authorities and the Kurds have stated they ask Russia to stay and cooperate with them.
On Dec 27, the new Syrian authorities do not plan to terminate the agreements under which Russia uses military bases in Latakia and Tartus provinces in the near future, a source close to the discussions on the preservation of Russian facilities in Syria. According to the source, the parties are holding negotiations to ensure that circumstances of force majeure, including military actions and regime changes in the republic, do not become a pretext for canceling the agreements. The source noted that the parties are also discussing the size of the Russian contingent.
“Russia seeks to preserve the legal status of its bases. The negotiations focus on ensuring that military action and regime change are not considered force majeure and grounds for revoking agreements on the long-term lease of facilities in Tartus and Latakia provinces. The Syrian side does not intend to terminate the agreements until the negotiations are concluded,” the source said.
According to the source, the new Syrian authorities guaranteed the security of Russian military bases during the negotiations.
The Russian military bases in Syria. Russia operates two military facilities in Syria – the Russian Navy maintenance base in the port city of Tartus, and the Khmeimim Air Base, situated in Jableh, Latakia. The Tartus base was established in 1971 through a bilateral agreement. The Russian Aerospace group in Syria was formed on September 30, 2015, to assist the Syrian Army in its fight against the Islamic State terror group (banned in Russia).
Earlier, Russian Presidential Envoy to the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, stated that Moscow has established direct communications with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, banned in Russia) political committee. The diplomat added that Russia anticipates the continued preservation of its military bases. On December 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow proposed to use its military bases for deliveries of humanitarian aid to Syria.
The US operations behind the scenes
In mid-December, James Jeffrey, former US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey explained why the US shifted to support al-Jolani and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. In the interview, Jeffrey tells bluntly how American officials colluded with HTS leader Jolani, other jihadists, Turkey, Israel and Kurds in order to get down President Assad and his political apparatus in Syria. In the case of cooperation with HTS, the US hypocrisy and double standard unmasked its unscrupulous face. HTS is still on the banned jihadist/terrorist list in majority of western countries.
Exposed: US military supported Syrian rebel offensive that toppled Assad government
Geopolitical Economy Report, December 21, 2024
US military supported Syrian rebel offensive that toppled Assad government. Syrian rebel commanders admitted that the US military helped them overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad. NATO member Turkey and Israel played key roles as well. Syrian rebel commanders have boasted that the US military helped them overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad. They acknowledged this in a report published by major British newspaper The Telegraph, titled “US ‘prepared Syrian rebel group to help topple Bashar al-Assad’”. The article revealed that a rebel group armed, trained and funded by the United States, based in the south of Syria, collaborated with rebranded al-Qaeda in the north to jointly topple the Syrian government.
According to the report, the US military helped to create a Syrian militia called the Revolutionary Commando Army (RCA). The US and UK armed and trained the RCA. The Pentagon paid its fighters a salary of $400 per month, which The Telegraph noted was “nearly 12 times what the soldiers in the now defunct Syrian army were paid”. The Pentagon pressured disparate rebel groups and mercenaries in southern Syria to unify behind the US-funded RCA. While the United States was overseeing the Syrian rebel operations in the south, NATO member Turkey was doing the same in the north.
Washington claims the fighters it sponsored in Syria were so-called “moderate rebels” but they were in fact allied with rebranded Al-Qaeda. The Telegraph wrote that there is evidence that “indicates not only that Washington knew about the offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which toppled the Assad regime on Dec 8, but that it had precise intelligence about its scale”.
HTS is a rebranded version of Syrian Al-Qaeda, which was previously called Jabhat al-Nusra. An RCA commander said his US-backed rebel group and HTS “were co-operating and communication between the two forces was being co-ordinated by the Americans at Al-Tanf”, The Telegraph reported.
When Syria’s Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017, the US State Department still recognized the extremist militia as a terrorist organization.
The US embassy even put a $10 million bounty on the head of Syrian Al-Qaeda leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Al-Jolani led HTS as the extremist group took over Damascus in December 2024. He is now the de facto leader of Syria. In a step toward recognizing the new rebranded Al-Qaeda regime in Syria, Washington has moved to delist HTS. The US State Department even lifted its $10 million bounty on al-Jolani, who has also personally rebranded and now uses his birth name Ahmed al-Sharaa. This decision came after the US government sent a delegation of top diplomats to Damascus to meet with the HTS chief.
The former Syrian Al-Qaeda chief has publicly stated that he has “no intention of confronting Israel”. Al-Jolani/al-Sharaa stressed, “We are not looking to engage in a conflict with Israel”. While the HTS leader calls for peace with Israel, the Israeli forces are colonizing Syrian territory. Immediately after the Assad government was overthrown, Israel invaded Syria, seizing more territory. The IDF announced that it had “annexed” the Golan Heights, which according to international law is Syrian sovereign territory that has been illegally occupied by Israel since 1967.
US-funded forces from the so-called Revolutionary Commando Army (RCA) now control roughly one-fifth of Syrian territory, in the south of the country. NATO member Turkey occupies land in northern Syria as well. This is in addition to the approximately one-third of Syrian territory, in the east, that is run by another US-backed armed group, called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
While the Defense Department had previously reported that 900 US troops were in Syria, it revealed in December that that number had increased to 2000. These 2000 US soldiers are occupying some of Syria’s most strategic land, including its oil and wheat fields. As president in 2020, Donald Trump gloated, “I left troops to take the oil. I took the oil. The only troops I have are taking the oil”. The Biden White House has continued Trump’s policy, emphasizing that these US soldiers will remain in Syria.
Nevertheless, the main attention is focused on the Americans, who are in an extremely unfortunate situation due to the results of the recent elections. Trump’s victory forces the Democrats to pursue a complex policy depending on the statements of Trumpists on Syria. For example, as soon as Trump announced a month ago that he was ready to withdraw troops from Syria, the Pentagon decided to increase its contingent to several thousand. Then Trump indicated that “Erdogan holds the key to Syria”, after which a delegation from Washington went to al-Julani, which should be interpreted as a positive signal to the Arab autocracies to establish themselves in Syria, as a counterweight to Ankara.
However, Trump’s adviser Michael Waltz then stated that the fight against ISIS is the first priority of the United States, Israel’s security is the second, and the third is expanding relations with the Gulf countries. Waltz clearly indicated that “Kurdish friends are the main partners of the United States in the fight against ISIS”.
This will explain why the current government in the United States has organized a series of attacks against the Takfirists and is trying in every possible way to prevent the pro-Turkish Ottomans from eliminating the PKK in Manbij. Biden’s team does not want to be responsible for the defeat of the Kurds, so as not to allow the Trumpists to openly criticize their policies. However, supporting the PKK in Syria is fraught with Americans, regardless of party affiliation, distancing themselves from Turkey, which has suddenly become number one in the Middle East. This is the dilemma that Washington will have to resolve but whatever the decision, China has already won on this part of the chessboard.
Strategic overview on the Middle East
Tensions escalated again in the Middle East on October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip launched a surprise attack on Israeli territory, killing residents of Israeli border settlements and taking over 250 hostages. In response, Israel initiated a military operation in Gaza with the objective of destroying the military and political structure of Hamas and rescuing all those abducted. Military actions in the Gaza Strip are continuing.
Peace is not at hand in the Middle East and Netanyahu remains determined to expand the war. His top priority is the destruction of Iran before Russia wraps up its victory in Ukraine and Syria becomes a new battleground for Turks and Israelis. Syria and other regions around Russia are used to weaken Russia and gain control over it. To end the conflict: Russia seeks a new defensive structure for Europe, aiming for NATO’s collapse as a tool for power projection.
The United States is also involved in this conflict in an attempt to rearrange its regional cards and formulate new balances that serve its aspirations as well as a move to distance Russia and China from influencing one of Washington’s important areas of influence on the international scene.
The chaos unfolding in Syria raises a pressing question: Was this a carefully planned coup, or is the region simply unraveling all at once? A deeper look reveals signs of far-reaching consequences, not just for Syria, but for the entire Middle East and the Western and Turkish supporters of their pet Jihadists. Now at the end of December, it appears that the West is sowing its own destruction in Syria while Russia has avoided the worst trap.
The major regional players—Israel, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia—each pursue their own agendas but has the collective West and the NATO alliance already forgotten the mess they made in Libya, and just walked away? They turned a well-functioning country into a failed state, one full of squabbling militias and slave markets.
It is necessary to consider the possible consequences of the fall of the Assad regime, if it ends up like in Libya, this is the worst option, but perhaps it will be a new Afghanistan. But more likely, the failed state may collapse the region as a whole into chaos. The same may prove true for what Syria will develop into and how it will be treated in the world and region.
A terrorist, by any name—freedom fighter, moderate, or otherwise—always remains a terrorist. No matter the attempts to rebrand or rehabilitate, the fundamental nature cannot be erased. It is like a venomous snake, it will inevitably strike, including the hand that feeds it—sooner or later.
Pepe Escobar: The Syrian Tragedy
Judge Napolitano – Judging Freedom, December 16, 2024
China has deep and diverse historical relations with most countries in the Middle East but this presence has witnessed great momentum in recent years, as China has intensified its movements and rebuilt its relations with the countries of the region. These movements came, above all, within the framework of China’s attempt to consolidate its international hegemony through diplomatic relations and geo-economic ties. As of 2022, the total annual trade volume of Chinese goods with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa region amounted to about $368.4 billion, which is more than double the size of the United States.
As China’s interests in the region have grown, it has an interest in securing access to vital shipping lanes and regional markets. It has therefore increased its security and military presence in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, through military bases and joint naval exercises with Iran and Russia.
The most prominent feature of the Chinese presence in the region was the mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which ended with the two countries restoring diplomatic relations after years of estrangement and confrontation. This mediation represented a unique model for the Global Security Initiative, which President Xi adopts as a formula for global security instead of the Washington-led system, which is now widely viewed as ineffective. There is no doubt that this mediation has strengthened China’s influence in the Middle East.
One of Russia’s most notable successes in strengthening its influence in the region was its economic alliance with OPEC countries, most notably Saudi Arabia and the formation of the “OPEC+” alliance, which helped Russia avoid economic collapse after the Western boycott, as well as Russia and China’s success in inviting three countries from the region to join the BRICS group, namely the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and perhaps Saudi Arabia later, which increases the growth of a political and economic bloc that competes with the Western group in the G7, led by the United States.
The United States dealt with the conflict through several paths. First, the Biden administration provided unlimited political support to Israel and its government, and supported Israel’s right to defend itself absolutely. It also led a campaign to promote the Israeli narrative about the events, and avoided any regional or international pressure to stop the conflict and the war in the Gaza Strip. It also provided diplomatic cover to protect Israel internationally.
In the Security Council, Washington used its veto power against all resolutions related to the crisis and aimed at ending the conflict. Economically, Washington has provided unlimited support to Israel. In April 2024, US President Joe Biden approved a financial support package for Israel worth $26 billion, including about $14 billion for military support. Before this package, more than $10 billion in aid had been allocated to strengthen air defenses and replace the ammunition stockpile that Israel used in the war on Gaza.
Militarily, Washington has strengthened its military presence, redeployed its military assets in the region, including aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, various naval vessels, and squadrons of US Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter jets in the region. It has recently deployed three THAAD defense systems, with 100 soldiers deployed with them, out of seven batteries owned by the United States. Washington has also maintained an increasing military presence in the Middle East throughout the past year, “with about 40,000 soldiers, at least twelve warships, and four squadrons of Air Force fighter jets, deployed throughout the region, to protect allies and act as a deterrent against attacks”.
US forces have already launched attacks on militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, in order to deter the Iranian axis that launched coordinated attacks on the Israeli occupation. In the face of the unrest in the Red Sea against the backdrop of the Houthi campaign, Washington launched a multinational security initiative, called “Prosperity Guardian”, operating under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces, and the leadership of its Task Force 153. This operation aims to jointly confront the security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and to ensure freedom of navigation and enhance regional security.
Although Washington has not abandoned diplomacy in order to contain the conflict and prevent its expansion, its initiatives have not led to a positive outcome. Biden’s proposal at the end of May 2024 to end the war in Gaza, and the subsequent rounds of negotiations, the last of which was in August 2023, were not successful, as Israel evaded its premeditated intentions of not reaching a settlement that would end the conflict, and Hamas, for its part, adhered to conditions that would lead to a cessation of the war and an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Washington’s position on the conflict was not driven by an American desire to rearrange the region to serve its interests. Supporting Israel, in part, weakens Iran’s regional axis, confirms its influence and supports its aspirations for a regional structure led by Israel’s help. It also limits the influence of China and Russia and attracts the Gulf states back to Washington.