Scenarios for the future

When taking all the scenario-groups and single scenarios (Western and Eastern) under close examination, it is possible to make some interesting comparisons.

A certain basic scenario type seems to be “New Multipolarity”, based on neorealism and polarity concept, which prominent classical writers like Mearsheimer, Waltz and Walt have contributed. These scenarios are still valid, more or less.

Another scenario-type seems to be forecasts based on the permanent US hegemony, military superiority and liberal order. Firm faith on this doctrine is striking among Western researchers and analysts, who have failed to understand that the US has chosen a wrong grand strategy (offensive containment) since 2014 and did not realize the fast development in RMA. These scenarios are now outdated.

Various “Multi-culture / Multi-order” systems represent a kind of illusory formulations which have emerged in “good times” and are keeping firmly on thin air, many meters above the ground.