Summary of political drivers worldwide
Challenging events 1990 – 2019
The following list covers such prominent events worldwide, which indicate and characterize powerful challenge to the unipole itself and to the unipolarity in general. The events are in consecutive order:
Gulf War (Iraq) 1990-1991, the war that “certified” the unipole role of the US
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: oil business, power of influence, first “pre-action” in the role of an unipole
- USSR (Russia) and China were weak and in the middle of internal problems, joined the US resolutions in UNSC
Russia and China signed and sent the letter to the UN
“the Joint Declaration on a Multipolar World and the Formation of a New International Order” in 1997.
Disintegration wars of Yugoslavia (1990 – 1999), Kosovo war was a turning point in 1999
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: containment of Russia, NATO enlargement, power of influence, robust action in the role of the unipole
- Russia and China: strongly opposing the NATO-led bombing campaign but still were in the too-weak position for any hard balancing
Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation in June 2001
Treaty is the groundwork of Sino-Russian relations and covers five important areas of cooperation:
- Joint actions to offset a perceived US hegemony
- Demarcation of the two countries’ long-disputed 4,300 km border
- Arms sales and technology transfers
- Energy and raw materials supply
- The rise of militant Islam in Central Asia
The treaty comes on the heels of another important security arrangement involving these two countries: inJune 14, 2001, Russia, China, and four Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Tajikistan, the Republic of Uzbekistan) announced the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an arrangement ostensibly aimed at confronting Islamic radical fundamentalism and promoting economic development. In 2017, both India and Pakistan were granted status as full members.
Afghanistan war 2001 (still going)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: antiterrorism, containment of Russia from the outset and later also China, power of influence, utilization of rich mineral resources in Afghanistan,
- Russia and China: tacit acceptance in the initial stage but later growing strong opposing stance to the NATO-led campaign
Iraq war & crisis 2003 (still going)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: power of influence, regime change, alleged wmd and antiterrorism, oil business and preventing de-dollarization of Iraq’s oil trade
- Russia and China: strong opposing stance in the UNSC to the US-led campaign
Results: President of the US executed the war without the mandate of the UN, which crumbled the authority and prestige of the UN
Putin’s speech in Munich (10.02.2007) was a new worldwide turning point
The Munich speech presented strong criticism of a world in which the US makes unilateral decisions on most important global issues with little regards to the interests of other nations, especially those not allied with Washington. Putin accused the United States of provoking a new nuclear arms race, expanding NATO in Europe and making the Middle East more unstable. He also said that Washington ignored the United Nations and relied on the unilateral use of force.
Georgian war (2008)
Georgian War was a historical event as it ended the West’s monopoly for unilateral use of force on the European scene after the Cold War, previously demonstrated only by NATO in Yugoslavia. It was also the first time when the present Russia was using force or projecting power outside its borders since the days of the Soviet Union. This also implied the decentralization of hard power usage and promised serious warning to Western powers both regarding NATO’s expansion in Europe and regarding military operations elsewhere.
Libya war 2011 (still going)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: regime change, power of influence, oil business and preventing de-dollarization of Libya’s oil trade
- Russia and China: strongly opposing the NATO-led bombing campaign
Syria war 2011 (still going)
Russian involvement in autumn 2015 was a new turning point
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: regime change, antiterrorism, utilization of oil business and oil/gas pipelines, power of influence in the Middle East
- Russia: strongly opposing the US involvement, power of influence in the Middle East
- China: in the initial stage, mainly a bystander but looking promising investment opportunities after the war, power of influence in the Middle East
Actions: US special forces operations, Russia’s first large-scale military offshore operation projecting power far from its borders based on its own military forces, logistics and supply.
Results: Russia’s involvement made the trajectory of the war upside down. Assad’s regime was very near to collapse in late 2015 but in autumn 2019 commends about 80% of the country. Meanwhile Russia has achieved extensive military experience and equipment battle testing as well as organized the large fixed offshore military and naval bases in the Middle East.
Ukraine conflict (2014 still going) and Crimea re-unification (annexation)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: regime change, containment of Russia, power of influence
- Russia: very strongly opposing the US or NATO involvement
- China: conforming Russia’s stance but mainly a bystander
Actions: US initiated “color revolution” and special forces operations. Russia’s robust military and other supply to East-Ukrainian troops as well fast annexation and political re-unification of Crimean region. This was the second time Russia projected military power outside its borders in the post-Cold War era.
Venezuela crisis escalating 2018 (still going)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: regime change, oil business, power of influence, containment of Russia and China
- Russia: oil business, power of influence, starting buildup of military presence in Venezuela
- China: conforming Russia’s stance, slowly but surely becoming a stakeholder in the crisis by involving in oil and mining business, financial aid and buildup of military presence
Actions: the more the US is pressing new sanctions and other punitive measures against Maduro’s regime, the more Russia and recently also China have put efforts on supporting Maduro’s position, both politically, financially and militarily.
Iran conflict escalating 2017 (still going and escalating)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: regime change, oil business, power of influence, containment of Russia and China
- Russia: oil business, power of influence, expanding political and military activities with Iran
- China: oil and energy business, sees Iran as a key part of its BRI plan, has continued oil trade with Iran despite sanctions set by the US
Actions: after the US withdrawing from JCPOA the tension between Iran and the US has been quickly escalating. The US has placed progressively new sanctions (e.g. on oil trade) and sent more military forces to near-regions. Iran has replied with target-specific military precision strikes (e.g. down-shooting an American big drone and strikes to Saudi oil refinery), threatening of the close of Hormuz Strait and all-out war against American military bases in the Middle East, embargo-breakings and increasing efforts in commerce, trade and other business areas with other countries. Although the stakes are getting very high, the US has refrained so far to take any serious military action.
North Korea conflict (“permanent” conflict, escalating again in 2017)
Historical case still open and unsettled, divided Korean peninsula into North and South Korea. Korean War ended with armistice in 1953which is still valid and effective without any official peace agreement.
Korean conflict escalated record high when North Korea made several tests of nuclear weapons and various missiles in 2017-2018. The situation culminated finally in the historical summit of President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore June 2018. The next round of meeting in Hanoi, February 2019, broke down without results, and by the same ended the thaw in the Korean relations and especially in relations between the US and North Korea. Tension keeps at high level, although North Korea has made only minor missile tests since then.
Turkey – the US dispute (2018 – still open)
The dispute between the US and Turkey consists of various elements and dimensions, although both are big NATO-members. The relations have been becoming heated in the Presidency of obstinate and self-assertive Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who sees the present Turkey as the direct continuum of the past Ottoman empire. The range of disputes with the US is wide: trade of Russian S-400/American F-35, NATO membership disputes, Gulen-case & military coup attempt in 2016, problems in adjusting Turkish and American interests and operations in Syria, Turkish accusations of “state robbery” when the US troops confiscate and smuggle Syrian oil, various sanctions set by the US etc.
South China Sea dispute (from 2017 on)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: containment of China, power of influence, opposing views in regional issues with China, close interconnection to Taiwan-case
- China: strengthening its military and commercial presence in this area, strongly opposing views with the US in regional issues
- Russia: conforming China’s stance but more as a bystander
Actions: yearly several naval and other military incidents between China and the US in the area
Taiwan dispute (“permanent” dispute, again escalating since 2017)
Estimated incentives of great powers involved
- the US: containment of China, power of influence, historical case of Taiwan still open and unsettled
- China: Taiwan is inseparable, organic part of China, therefore especially strong opposing views with the US in this extreme sensitive issue
- Russia: conforming China’s stance but more as a bystander
Actions: several naval and other incidents yearly between China and the US in the Taiwan Straits. China also criticizes the US decisions regarding sales of jets and other military equipment to Taiwan and reminds keeping on “one China policy”.
Cuba dispute escalating again 2018
Cuba and the United States restored diplomatic relations in July 2015, relations which had been severed in 1961 during the Cold War. In March 2016, President Barack Obama visited Cuba, becoming the first US President in 88 years to visit the island.
In June 2017 President Trump announced that he was suspending the policy for unconditional sanctions relief for Cuba and later in 2019 announced new restrictions on American travel to Cuba and further sanctions. Both China and Russia have been active in developing relations with Cuba both in energy and business sectors as well as in military cooperation.
In 2018, the Western intelligence services detected a large radar station / dome structure near Havanna but have not yet specified who has constructed it and for what purpose. Suspicions refer to “solo China project” or “joint Sino-Russian undertaking”.