Article 3 July 18, 2022

Washington and Kyiv versus Moscow

Economy&Politics, 18 May 2022, by Hall Gardner

Toward a war of attrition? Or major power war?

As I have been warning since at least 1994 that a Russia-Ukraine conflict leading a major power war was a real possibility,1 I would prefer not to warn again that the worse is yet to come.

It would have been great if Russian President Putin had announced a cease fire on the May 9 Victory Day and had publicly stated his intent to negotiate a peace settlement and withdraw Russian forces. That evidently did not prove to be the case. There appear to be a few glimmers that diplomacy is still possible—but a lasting peace can only be reached through diplomacy once, and if, the two sides can soon reach a “hurting stalemate”2 on the battlefield.